Campaign 2020

[mlrg]

20$ that the USA presidential election won’t happen this year

[Big Magilla]

Just because they "approve" of Trump today doesn't mean they'll vote for him in November. Sadly, so many are falling for the same old promises of a handout when "the little guy" will be getting a pittance compared to what the titans of industry will be getting...again! They believe McConnell's righteous bullshit that it's the Democrats who are holding out on them instead of for them.

Trump thinks he's Jesus Christ and will rise from the dead on Easter morning. It ain't gonna happen, folks!

[OscarGuy]

Oh no. Republicans are entirely hypocrites, so they'll cancel the convention if it's still a threat. Remember the platform plank they had protecting the right to concealed carry and guns then went and banned firearms on the convention floor? They have no shame.

[danfrank]

But then it gets worse: https://news.gallup.com/poll/298313/pre ... ating.aspx

So what, it just seems sometimes that we’re living in an idiocracy?

[danfrank]

If you don't believe me, try Stan Greenberg, who's been a pro in this business a LONG time.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... gth/608611

Good article. Now what most concerns me is what is going to happen with what remains of this election cycle if the pandemic gets as bad as it looks like it will, especially if Trump has his way in defying the public health experts. I can imagine remaining primaries not happening at all, cancelled conventions (well, maybe not the Republican one, since they are willing to die to save the economy), and states failing—intentionally, in some cases—to institute vote by mail. Worst-case scenario would be a low turnout election. There are worse cases than that, actually, but I won’t go there for now.

[Big Magilla]

What I'm seeing on the ground is that all but the most steadfast supporters of Trump don't believe anything that has come out of his mouth in the last week. I swear if Biden and Sanders were to drop their bids and ask for a brokered convention, Andrew Cuomo would easily get the nomination and the win for the way he is handling the crisis in New York.

[Mister Tee]

If you don't believe me, try Stan Greenberg, who's been a pro in this business a LONG time.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... gth/608611

[Sabin]

Sonic Youth wrote
Fortunately for him, the number of infections and fatalities are disproportionately in blue states.

He's just owning the libs.

[Sonic Youth]

The president is gonna get so many people killed and I'm not even sure that's enough to stop him from being reelected.

Fortunately for him, the number of infections and fatalities are disproportionately in blue states.

[Okri]

The president is gonna get so many people killed and I'm not even sure that's enough to stop him from being reelected.

[Big Magilla]

Trump's baked-in support hovers in the 40s. Anything over 45% is cause for concern but not panic. Still, it should be going down, not up.

[criddic3]

Trump's crisis approval rating is 55%.

Is this evidence that we are truly a majority-idiot country, or are people just too afraid to acknowledge that this pandemic isn’t being managed well? Denial is powerful.

Probably both.

Apparently the president is benefiting from people not paying as much attention to his missteps, misquotes and lies. I was discussing current events with my mother, and she was unaware of Trump's CDC meeting where he touted his MIT graduated uncle to show how much he knew about medical issues. She suggested that I was merely dispositioned to criticize everything the president says or does, and therefore my arguments that his leadership is failing were "weak." This is a woman who decided to switch from independent to Republican just so she could vote against Trump in the 2016 primaries (although I should have known something was amiss when she chose to support Ben Carson, who had no chance at winning). I know one anecdote doesn't tell the whole story, but I bet that other intelligent (and yes my mom is very intelligent) people are being willfully ignorant of Trump's faults. In some ways, I guess his behavior is baked into the cake as far as his approval ratings are concerned at this point. To Oscarguy's point about Joe Biden's gaffes being cancelled out by President Trump's own misstatements, I think that's largely true. It may seem obvious but turnout is really the key here, which is why I'm glad Democrats have basically chosen Joe Biden for this election. Whatever happens with coronavirus, Biden is clearly the one with the better chance of getting enough people to vote in November. I just hope Bernie Sanders makes his decision about dropping out sooner rather than later. I read an article about the inner discussions of his campaign, which is fielding different scenarios about how best to optimize his influence on the party while acknowledging the chances of a comeback are all-but-gone now.

[Mister Tee]

Side question: what do we think is going to happen with the Senators who are suspected of insider trading? Do they all resign?

Reporters did their due diligence by including any Senators who made large trades since January, but there doesn't seem to be any real connection for Sens. Inhofe, Johnson or Feinstein. They were all in blind trust positions, and none of them attended the briefing at which the key information was provided. I'm sorry to say that about Johnson, because his seat in this year's environment would be a ripe target.

Loeffler also has the fig leaf of a third-party doing the transaction, but her circumstances are extremely hinky: the trades were made immediately after the briefing, and all were related to industries clearly affected by the quarantines. She's an appointed Senator, and already was facing a primary from Rep. Collins, which she now may not survive. It's win-win for Dems: if she's the nominee, she's tainted; if Collins wins, he's a far-righter who'll be easier to beat in a state (GA) that's getting more competitive all the time.

Burr is in the deepest trouble -- he's got a double issue: first, delivering differing messages to donors than constituents, then seemingly profiting off that knowledge (again, in industries reflecting that knowledge). When people like Tucker Carlson and co-Senator Tillis are sounding alarms, things look dire. Were Burr to resign, NC law says the Dem governor has to appoint a GOPer as his replacement -- but...if this happens early enough, that replacement would have to run for normal election this November, in what is shaping up as a hellscape environment for Republicans. This leads me to believe the Republicans will resist as much as they can. However, early NC polling suggests the voters down there think he should be out yesterday, so they may not be able to hold out. We'll have to see how it plays.

[Big Magilla]

Side question: what do we think is going to happen with the Senators who are suspected of insider trading? Do they all resign?

Hahahahaha!

[danfrank]

I certainly know better than to take too much stock in one poll (I didn’t look at the details of this one, frankly), but even one poll with this result is astounding given what we’re witnessing before our eyes. Normally it makes sense to look at history and precedent, but there is nothing normal about what is unfolding under Trump. I keep waiting for something to knock him down in the polls but it hasn’t happened yet, at least in any significant or sustained way. It’s clear that a huge swath of this country doesn’t care about blatant corruption. I thought people WOULD care about ineptitude regarding the handling of this pandemic, and maybe they will when a lot more people start dying. I will believe it when I see it. As unpopular as Trump is overall, he could still win if he’s just popular enough in states with 270 electoral votes. I’m not predicting he will win, but I’m not going to be overconfident about it either.