Web of Sex Scandals

Mister Tee
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Re: Web of Sex Scandals

Post by Mister Tee »

Big Magilla wrote:
Sabin wrote: The state to worry about is New Jersey. If the ethics committee recommends and the senate agrees to expel Menendez before his Democratic successor takes over, Chris Christie gets to name his replacement.
Why would this happen when the prosecution ended in mistrial?

I don't want to fall into the habit of defending people just because they're on my side, but the initial reaction to Al Franken strikes me as pretty hysterically over the top. He posed for a douchey, meant-to-be-funny-in-a-frat-boy-way-but-wasn't photo (where he isn't touching the woman), and of kissing that woman way harder than she was expecting (though this detail he disputes). Even if you assume her story is 100% accurate (and, we can't help but notice, she appears regularly on Sean Hannity's show, and the dread Roger Stone was given enough heads-up on the story to tweet about it last night), to equate this with sexual assault confirms my fear that any and all gaucheries are going to start being lumped together. What Roy Moore, Harvey Weinstein, Louis CK and Kevin Spacey are accused of doing is genuinely horrible; what Franken did (in the first case, and maybe even the second) was puerile. If there are additional women who accuse him of the kissing maneuver the woman mentions, then he's got job trouble. But if this is essentially a one-off, I think it's ridiculous to say he should resign.
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Re: Web of Sex Scandals

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Sabin wrote:Working today but here a thought...if the tax plan doesn’t pass the senate will they cry foul bc Franken should have resigned?
What would Franken's resignation have to do with it? The governor of Minnesota is a Democrat. He would replace him with another Democrat.

The state to worry about is New Jersey. If the ethics committee recommends and the senate agrees to expel Menendez before his Democratic successor takes over, Chris Christie gets to name his replacement.
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Re: Web of Sex Scandals

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Working today but here a thought...if the tax plan doesn’t pass the senate will they cry foul bc Franken should have resigned?
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Re: Web of Sex Scandals

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I didn't think it would've happened in 2006, though!
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Re: Web Of Sex Scandals

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Sonic Youth wrote: BTW, before we get too smug about this... you know this is eventually going to happen to a Democrat too, right? My money's on Al Franken.
Damn it, Sonic Youth!

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Re: Web of Sex Scandals

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dws1982 wrote:A group of pastors from Alabama signed a letter of support for Moore today. As a Christian this is one of the more shameful things I've seen in the fallout of these scandals. As one person on Twitter put it, if you support Moore at this point, you should just admit that party ID is more important than common decency and give up any claim to moral authority or religious virtue.
Okay, so more context on this letter: It was actually compiled and signed early in the primary process. Moore (and his wife, apparently) brought it out and tried to pass it off as some new showing of support, and many of the pastors who had signed it have demanded that their names be removed. Of course I don't think a pastor has any business publicly endorsing political candidates at all, and I have to question their theology if they were supporting Moore at any point, but at least it's not as bad as it sounded.

And several Democrats have explicitly stated that Moore should be expelled, so I'm going to say your scenario seems unlikely, OG. For all the crap Moore has been talking about McConnell, if he gets to the Senate he's going to vote with him that majority of the time, except on the occasions where McConnell is doing something that needs bipartisan support.
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Re: Web of Sex Scandals

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The Onion just posted the headine: Roy Moore Refusing To Withdraw From Alabama 13-Year-Old
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Re: Web of Sex Scandals

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In a sane world, this would be the end of it, but who knows now:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-des ... n-mall/amp

OscarGuy, I understand the Machiavellian idea of Dems making GOPers stew in a Moore Senate election, but I think they have more character than that (or will at least want to be perceived as having it); they'll go along with an expulsion vote, if it comes to that.
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Re: Web of Sex Scandals

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Don't count on Dems to vote to expel. As a loose cannon, Moore does more harm to the Republican Party and its agenda than a traditional Republican (Alabama's governor) appointing another traditional Republican to fill Moore's vacated seat. That's a reliable vote for McConnell. Moore would become about as useful to the Republicans as Rand Paul is.

All they have to say is: "The citizens of Alabama chose to appoint a pedophile to the U.S. Senate. That was their choice. If the Republicans wish to put party above propriety, they deserve what they get."

It saddles the party and its voters with a repugnant decision and forces them to live with it.
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Re: Web of Sex Scandals

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With the new allegations coming out about Moore, I think it's only a matter of time before something is done. I doubt he drops out, because he's such a stubborn hardass, but the Republican party has turned on him (so now he's naturally resorting to "drain the swamp" garbage). If he does get elected, I think the votes are there to expel him.

You'd need all the Democrats and 19 Republicans, and I think you can find enough Republicans to vote for expulsion.

Kay Ivey now seems to be toying with the idea of moving the election date--her last statement had been that the election would go forward as planned.

A group of pastors from Alabama signed a letter of support for Moore today. As a Christian this is one of the more shameful things I've seen in the fallout of these scandals. As one person on Twitter put it, if you support Moore at this point, you should just admit that party ID is more important than common decency and give up any claim to moral authority or religious virtue.
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Re: Web of Sex Scandals

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Mister Tee wrote
Should Doug Jones win -- and I still view that as a long-shot, just because of the GOP tilt of the state -- I'd expect he'd be defeated as soon as he came up for re-election, almost regardless of his performance in office.
Five-Thirty Eight wrote a piece about what it would take for Doug Jones to lose. To put it simply, Doug Jones needs to do about as well as humanly possible and Roy Moore needs to radically underperform, which to me doesn't seem likely. Like Trump, he's campaigning as an anti-establishment outsider, painting his accusers as plants from the Democratic establishment to besmirch his integrity. Considering that Donald Trump used this loathsome strategy to propel himself to the presidency, we cannot assume it will be ineffective.

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Re: Web of Sex Scandals

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Here is something I read on Twitter:

"This [Donald Trump's Tweet] is so childish, Roy Moore wants to date it."
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Re: Web of Sex Scandals

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Thanks, dws, for the local report. I know a number of people who are probably close to your political profile -- people who would like to view themselves as moderate conservatives, but have become increasingly horrified by the direction of the GOP.

Should Doug Jones win -- and I still view that as a long-shot, just because of the GOP tilt of the state -- I'd expect he'd be defeated as soon as he came up for re-election, almost regardless of his performance in office.
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Re: Web of Sex Scandals

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dws1982 wrote: Henry said he believes legal action should be considered against Moore’s accusers, finding their story unbelievable.

“If they believe this man is predatory, they are guilty of allowing him to exist for 40 years. I think someone should prosecute and go after them. You can’t be a victim 40 years later, in my opinion,” Henry said.
Yeah, this has been getting play nationally.

And some people still wonder why women don't come forward and immediately prosecute their harassers.
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Re: Web of Sex Scandals

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Mister Tee wrote:I know dws has weighed in on various aspects of this, but I'd be interested in hearing from him what sort of local reaction the Roy Moore story is getting.
First, a little context, because I've (intentionally) never really discussed politics here much: I guess I would consider myself slightly right-of-center politically, someone who usually hits really close to the center on those "political spectrum" things, slightly in the "Conservative Libertarian" quadrant. I can't find much in common with any political party these days, and was horrified as Trump ended up the Republican nominee last year. (I just wanted them to put up a candidate who had a coherent political philosophy and worldview, which isn't asking too much since political parties have routinely done that throughout history.)

Roy Moore has been kicking around in Alabama for quite awhile; he knows very well how to play into the evangelical base. I myself have always been frustrated at the fact that people call themselves conservatives and then give Moore a pass for doing things that they would routinely (and rightly, in my opinion) call judicial activism if it were coming from the other side. Moore routinely decided cases based on his personal/religious beliefs and then twisted the law to try to make it fit. I also think it's telling that he ran for governor in 2010 and placed fourth in the primary with less than 20% of the vote, even though he was easily the most well-known candidate statewide. I've never voted for the man, and from a legal perspective, I think that he absolutely should've been removed from office--you don't get to ignore court orders that you disagree with, even if you think the court order was wrongly issued.

The allegations yesterday were treated with plenty of skepticism initially, but people, at least from what I've observed, seem to see them as credible. These are just people I personally know, though. News outlets have been pretty okay, from what I've seen--mostly just reporting the allegations without editorializing on them. AL.com has been strongly anti-Moore from the start, and they've been on this one pretty strongly today. Many local Republican party leaders through the state have put out statements, and those statements, for the most part, are not good. Most are along the lines of "anyone can be accused at any time", but there was one state representative, from a few towns over who had this to say:
State Rep. Ed Henry, R-Hartselle, said he suspects the timing of the stories told by five women about Moore’s advances 40 years ago, as reported by The Washington Post, are politically motivated as the Dec. 12 special election nears. Moore will face Democrat Doug Jones, a former U.S. attorney.

Henry said he believes legal action should be considered against Moore’s accusers, finding their story unbelievable.

“If they believe this man is predatory, they are guilty of allowing him to exist for 40 years. I think someone should prosecute and go after them. You can’t be a victim 40 years later, in my opinion,” Henry said.

And Henry was dismissive of the idea that Moore should back out of the race.

“The idea that accusations like this would stop his campaign is ludicrous. If this was a habit, like you’ve read with Bill Cosby and millions of dollars paid to settle cases and years of witnesses, that would be one thing,” Henry said. “You cannot tell me there hasn’t been an opportunity through the years to make these accusations with as many times as he’s (Moore) run (for office) and been in the news.

The Alabama lawmaker said Moore is a threat to “establishment” lawmakers on the national level, including in the Republican Party.

“(Senate Majority Leader Mitch) McConnell and (Arizona Sen.) John McCain, what they said about Moore ending his campaign just really gets to me. They are two of the biggest goobers we have in Washington D.C.,” Henry said. “Even (U.S. Sen. Richard) Shelby was a coward with his comments. He’s not going to like Roy Moore because Shelby was a Democrat for a long time. Everyone close to the establishment is going to love this.”

Henry said he believes Moore’s accusers have been stoked by the Democratic Party and may be paid money eventually for their actions.

“I’m not buying it,” Henry said. “It’s too easy for someone to make these accusations. It’s foolish to go down that road, it’s like what if a frog had wings, he wouldn’t bump his ass every time he jumps.”
And there have been a few who were along the lines of, "we should still vote for him, even if he is guilty, because at least he's not a Democrat".

As for what will happen...Moore isn't one to back down, as he's made quite clear in the past. I don't see any chance that he steps down, and it's too late to replace him on the ballot. I wish the Republicans would take a stand and say that some things are more important than winning an election, and refuse to fund the campaign (maybe even fund a write-in), and if he wins, refuse to let him into the caucus, and move to expel him. But given that they stuck with Trump, I don't see that as being very likely. Moore's best move in my opinion would be to pledge to resign if elected, and let Kay Ivey appoint someone, but again, that would be completely out of character. The outcome of the election will depend almost entirely on voter turnout. I don't see this flipping many voters from Moore to Jones, but I think it could definitely depress turnout for Moore. He was already a divisive candidate; in a state where Republicans usually win statewide contests by 20 points, I think that his divisiveness (plus a more-energized Dem base) would've cut his lead to about 10 points. I'm not sure what'll happen now. If Moore wins, I think he'll almost definitely be primaried (with party support behind his challenger), and if Jones wins, he'll really struggle to win a full term, unless he shows willingness to work from the middle.
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