Everything Is Great and Amazing

Sabin
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Post by Sabin »

Jesus.
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Sabin
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

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It's moments like these that I recognized how incredibly party-affiliated I am. When I read the reports yesterday, I just felt sick and horrible about the implications of what is to come. But then I ask myself, would I feel the same way if Hillary Clinton were the President? Or if they had happened under Obama's presidency? And the answer is "No." I would have grave concerns and worry, but I wouldn't feel like we were on the precipice of World War III. Both President Obama and a President Hillary Clinton (MAN, I still can't believe I'm not going to see that more often) would warrant a very limited trust that they had reviewed the documents and proceeded with caution.

Actually, party-affiliated isn't the correct choice of words. I just don't trust this guy to do anything.
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

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Maybe he can help fix Syria's healthcare. They're going to need it.

Not to deny that that beast Assad isn't doing his part, but President T isn't a man who likes to be outdone.
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

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I never thought I'd say this but I really wish he'd get back to fixing health care.
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

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That should stop those pesky refugees.
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

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Mister Tee wrote
2) Midterms were terrible for Dems during Obama's term, but I disagree (per Sabin) that was because the party itself was unpopular. They lost in 2010 because unemployment was over 10%, something that historically has meant midterm disaster for any White House party, and then the gerrymander locked in many of the losses.
Let me rephrase: the Democrats didn't lose 1,000 seats because the Democratic party is unpopular. They lost 1,000 seats because their messaging is terrible.

In 2014, public faith in both parties was pretty low. The Democrats ran terrible campaigns (often times as Republican lite) against the Republicans who ran merely poor campaigns and lost huge seat numbers. Obviously this is cherrypicking, but people like Mark Pryor and his bible ads or Alison Lundergan Grimes who refused to say if she voted for Obama in 2012...

Specifically in 2010, the Democrat's messaging on Obamacare was awful. The town halls in 2009 and 2010 were full of panicked future-Trump voters terrified of their grandmothers put through death panels. Maybe Obama placed too much trust in the people to see through the misinformation, maybe he didn't want to seem desperate, or maybe he just didn't care. But I remember 2010 and the rise of the Tea Party. The Republicans had successfully framed the Democratic party as the party of the bailouts, the mandate, and an out of control government that didn't care about transparency at all. Whether or not any of this was true didn't matter. It was successful messaging. Meanwhile the Democrats...let's see...a combination of distancing, and describing how we got into this situation (which was tossed off as blaming Bush). Inspired yet?
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Post by criddic3 »

Mister Tee wrote:
Though criddic's math was, as you all quickly pointed out, lunatic -- upping the need for a 2-3 Senate seat gain to 8-9 based on...well, nothing -- he is correct that there are situational disadvantages Dems will need to overcome to take full advantage of the crumbling administration and its plummeting poll numbers. The Senate class of 2018 is literally the most difficult one of the three cycles for the Dems to make gains in, chiefly because they've done so well in that class already (making a 5-seat gain in 2000, a 6-seat gain in 2006 and a 2-seat gain in 2012). If they could take a shot at the class of 2014/20, or a redo of last November's group, there's no question Dems would gain enough seats to take control of the chamber. With the group they'll actually be facing, they'll need to do spectacularly well for that outcome. The House is a similarly iffy proposition, though solely because of GOP gerrymandering. When a president's sitting with an approval rating below 40, his party should lose control of the House -- as the GOP did in '06, and the Dems did in '10. But the GOP gerrymander post 2010 was so unprecedentedly Machiavellian, the outcome would still be in doubt -- though major Dem gains are more or less assured.

Yet Dem takeover is not out of the question, for a few reasons:

1) That godawful approval rating. Trump's numbers are especially remarkable because he's still, for the moment, reaping the benefit of the economy Obama left to him. It's very rare for a president's numbers to go that out of synch with general prosperity (though Bush, thanks to Iraq miasma, managed it in '06). This suggests the electorate has made a firm negative judgment on Trump, meaning the numbers aren't likely to improve, and could even go lower if there's any economic slowdown.

2) Midterms were terrible for Dems during Obama's term, but I disagree (per Sabin) that was because the party itself was unpopular. They lost in 2010 because unemployment was over 10%, something that historically has meant midterm disaster for any White House party, and then the gerrymander locked in many of the losses. It's true that Dems didn't turn out as well in midterms as GOPers did, but now the reverse is likely to be true, with a Republican in the presidency, especially one with an epically bad approval. Note that Dems picked up over 30 seats in the 2006 midterm, more than they need today to take back the House. And, to now agree with Sabin, I think there's every reason to believe Democratic occasional voters -- the ones who've tended to turn out in presidential years but skip the midterms -- are right at this moment more motivated than they've been in my lifetime If they don't turn out in droves, I'll be very surprised.

None of which excuses those people for staying home/pissing away the country on November 8th, but at least it suggests light at the end of the tunnel.
You make some good points. I did mess up my math, but I still think it'll be a tough road for Democrats unless things get a lot worse for Republicans in the coming months. Not out of the question, I admit.
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Post by Mister Tee »

Yesterday was a perfect illustration of why I think having the Intelligence Community as an adversary is lethal for Trump. The day began with the right wing puke funnel putting out a wholly misleading story trying to make Susan Rice a villain. (SIDE ISSUE: The last three people the right has gone after are April Ryan, Maxine Waters and Susan Rice. What do those three have in common, class?) Before the night was done, two more major leaks hit the press, about Carter Page and Jared Kushner, putting emphasis squarely back where it belongs, on the investigation. The CIA is not to be trifled with here.

Like all of you, I still don't know how far this is all going, or how fast -- it depends on how much of the online speculation turns out to be true. But my take is, the range of outcomes for Trump and his circle only goes from pretty bad to godawful.

Though criddic's math was, as you all quickly pointed out, lunatic -- upping the need for a 2-3 Senate seat gain to 8-9 based on...well, nothing -- he is correct that there are situational disadvantages Dems will need to overcome to take full advantage of the crumbling administration and its plummeting poll numbers. The Senate class of 2018 is literally the most difficult one of the three cycles for the Dems to make gains in, chiefly because they've done so well in that class already (making a 5-seat gain in 2000, a 6-seat gain in 2006 and a 2-seat gain in 2012). If they could take a shot at the class of 2014/20, or a redo of last November's group, there's no question Dems would gain enough seats to take control of the chamber. With the group they'll actually be facing, they'll need to do spectacularly well for that outcome. The House is a similarly iffy proposition, though solely because of GOP gerrymandering. When a president's sitting with an approval rating below 40, his party should lose control of the House -- as the GOP did in '06, and the Dems did in '10. But the GOP gerrymander post 2010 was so unprecedentedly Machiavellian, the outcome would still be in doubt -- though major Dem gains are more or less assured.

Yet Dem takeover is not out of the question, for a few reasons:

1) That godawful approval rating. Trump's numbers are especially remarkable because he's still, for the moment, reaping the benefit of the economy Obama left to him. It's very rare for a president's numbers to go that out of synch with general prosperity (though Bush, thanks to Iraq miasma, managed it in '06). This suggests the electorate has made a firm negative judgment on Trump, meaning the numbers aren't likely to improve, and could even go lower if there's any economic slowdown.

2) Midterms were terrible for Dems during Obama's term, but I disagree (per Sabin) that was because the party itself was unpopular. They lost in 2010 because unemployment was over 10%, something that historically has meant midterm disaster for any White House party, and then the gerrymander locked in many of the losses. It's true that Dems didn't turn out as well in midterms as GOPers did, but now the reverse is likely to be true, with a Republican in the presidency, especially one with an epically bad approval. Note that Dems picked up over 30 seats in the 2006 midterm, more than they need today to take back the House. And, to now agree with Sabin, I think there's every reason to believe Democratic occasional voters -- the ones who've tended to turn out in presidential years but skip the midterms -- are right at this moment more motivated than they've been in my lifetime If they don't turn out in droves, I'll be very surprised.

None of which excuses those people for staying home/pissing away the country on November 8th, but at least it suggests light at the end of the tunnel.
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Post by Sabin »

Bog wrote
Outside of fuzzy math and circular logic histrionics...this is one of the main points I wanted to convey. Consistently dropping approval (now an unheard of 35%) rating , Obamacare failure or indifference from the president , and his focus on "personal attacks" and 2020 should lean all toward a massive "changeover".
There was a sentence I toyed with writing but ultimately deleted because there's no point in projecting awful visions of the future...but...

Even if in the next year we are attacked (and I say this not morosely but rather because there is nobody I trust less to keep our country safe than Donald Trump), I still don't think we'll see a rally round the flag effect. I still don't see Republicans gaining. I say this for two reasons: 1) the internet wasn't then what it is now, and 2) Donald Trump told Jeb Bush to his face that his brother did not keep us safe on 9/11. This was a remarkable moment, but it can be used against him. Ultimately, I don't think there is any coming together as a country anymore, period, but he will not be beneficiary to his own ineptitude even if the unthinkable happens.
Bog wrote
This, of course , all purely depending upon curbing the usually dependable lackadaisical Democrat voter turnout ...especially in off years.

The difference is that next year is going to be a little more exciting than your usual midterms. It's going to be a referendum on Trump's policies, but it's going to be something even more than that. I think some progressive outsiders are going to have a better chance than usual thanks in part to online news groups. As has been noted elsewhere, under Obama the Democrats lost over 1,000 seats. They are not a popular party. So, I'd imagine we're looking at volatile midterm primaries.

Big Magilla wrote
Nothing happens in control freak Trump's world without his knowledge or approval. He may not have had a one-on-one conversation with Putin, but all this skullduggery was either at his direction or with his knowledge and consent as anyone who has ever read an espionage novel or seen a James Bond film can figure out for themselves.

Those of us who compared him to Hitler were over-reaching. He's just not that smart. The character he most reminds me of now is James Gregory's puppet would-be president in The Manchurian Candidate. The only difference is that instead of Angela Lansbury, he's got a host of dumb handlers pulling the strings at Moscow's direction.
I don't know if he's a control freak, but he sure thinks he is one. I think he's too dumb.

The climax of Donald Trump's political life won't be his resignation or his impeachment. If we're lucky enough to have it, it will be him testifying on what he knew. Donald Trump isn't just a pathological liar. He's a dumb one. He can't keep track of what he says to who. I don't think there's much justice in this world, but at least he'll be revealed for what he is: a child who doesn't know what he's talking about one minute from the next.
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Post by Big Magilla »

What puzzles me is why everyone is afraid to say out loud where this Russian collusion investigation is headed. It's not difficult to connect the dots.

Nothing happens in control freak Trump's world without his knowledge or approval. He may not have had a one-on-one conversation with Putin, but all this skullduggery was either at his direction or with his knowledge and consent as anyone who has ever read an espionage novel or seen a James Bond film can figure out for themselves.

Those of us who compared him to Hitler were over-reaching. He's just not that smart. The character he most reminds me of now is James Gregory's puppet would-be president in The Manchurian Candidate. The only difference is that instead of Angela Lansbury, he's got a host of dumb handlers pulling the strings at Moscow's direction.

We need more than the resignation or impeachment of the president. We need to clean house of his entire cabinet, except for Mattis and Kelly. I don't know how you get there unless Congress declares a special election, backed by the Supreme Court. I don't think either the country or the free world in general can take another 57 1/2 months of this.
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Post by Bog »

Sabin wrote:RE: the midterms

I'm less fearful about the Democrats' chances in 2018 than I was a few months ago.
Outside of fuzzy math and circular logic histrionics...this is one of the main points I wanted to convey. Consistently dropping approval (now an unheard of 35%) rating , Obamacare failure or indifference from the president , and his focus on "personal attacks" and 2020 should lean all toward a massive "changeover". This, of course , all purely depending upon curbing the usually dependable lackadaisical Democrat voter turnout ...especially in off years.
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Post by Sabin »

RE: the midterms

Jon Stewart has it right. "The Presidency is supposed to age the President, not the public." Every week of this administration feels like a month and every month feels like six. It's impossible for me to fathom what two years will feel like under a Trump administration. But I know this: if health care truly proves to be the albatross around Paul Ryan's neck, then we're in good shape. My hunch is that this is going to be one small turd in a bucket of shit that is already alarmingly full.

I'm less fearful about the Democrats' chances in 2018 than I was a few months ago. I just think we live in a world now where house leadership just changes more often than it used to. We have more access to biased media, starting with the rise of conservative talk radio in 1994 and since then, the amount of time that one party holds onto leadership has shortened with time.
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Post by criddic3 »

Here's an interesting article about the 2018 midterm contest that already has people on both sides buzzing at this early date.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 33450.html
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Post by criddic3 »

:D
"Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand." -- President Joe Biden, 01/20/2021
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Re: Everything Is Great Again

Post by Bog »

criddic3 wrote:Remember, though, that this is a net gain scenario. Democrats could lose some seats, as well
I give dude...I tap out
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