Sabin wrote:A lot happened this week. And yet, this is what keeps me up at night.
In a new poll, half of Republicans say they would support postponing the 2020 election if Trump proposed it
By Ariel Malka and Yphtach Lelkes August 10 at 5:00 AM
1) Who are these people who did this poll? The names aren't familiar; are they with some group that has a track record?
2) Tossing out non-factual info like "three million illegals voting" and such prior to the question makes this closer to a push poll, which is notorious for getting misleading results.
There's plenty enough real to worry about; I wouldn't devote too much energy to this.
A lot happened this week. And yet, this is what keeps me up at night.
In a new poll, half of Republicans say they would support postponing the 2020 election if Trump proposed it
By Ariel Malka and Yphtach Lelkes August 10 at 5:00 AM
Critics of President Trump have repeatedly warned of his potential to undermine American democracy. Among the concerns are his repeated assertions that he would have won the popular vote had 3 to 5 million “illegals” not voted in the 2016 election, a claim echoed by the head of a White House advisory committee on voter fraud.
Claims of large-scale voter fraud are not true, but that has not stopped a substantial number of Republicans from believing them. But how far would Republicans be willing to follow the president to stop what they perceive as rampant fraud? Our recent survey suggests that the answer is quite far: About half of Republicans say they would support postponing the 2020 presidential election until the country can fix this problem.
Here’s how we did our research:
The survey interviewed a sample of 1,325 Americans from June 5 through 20. Respondents were recruited from the Qualtrics online panel who had previously reported identifying with or leaning toward one of the two major parties. We focus on the 650 respondents who identify with or lean toward the Republican Party. The sample has been weighted to match the population in terms of sex, age, race and education.
After a series of initial questions, respondents were asked whether Trump won the popular vote, whether millions of illegal immigrants voted, and how often voter fraud occurs. These questions evoke arguments frequently made by Trump and others about the integrity of the 2016 election.
Then the survey asked two questions about postponing the 2020 election.
If Donald Trump were to say that the 2020 presidential election should be postponed until the country can make sure that only eligible American citizens can vote, would you support or oppose postponing the election?
What if both Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress were to say that the 2020 presidential election should be postponed until the country can make sure that only eligible American citizens can vote? Would you support or oppose postponing the election?
Roughly half of Republicans believe Trump won the popular vote — and would support postponing the 2020 election.
Nearly half of Republicans (47 percent) believe that Trump won the popular vote, which is similar to this finding. Larger fractions believe that millions of illegal immigrants voted (68 percent) and that voter fraud happens somewhat or very often (73 percent). Again, this is similar to previous polls.
Moreover, 52 percent said that they would support postponing the 2020 election, and 56 percent said they would do so if both Trump and Republicans in Congress were behind this.
Not surprisingly, beliefs about the 2016 election and voter fraud were correlated with support for postponement. People who believed that Trump won the popular vote, that there were millions of illegal votes in 2016, or that voter fraud is not rare were more likely to support postponing the election. This support was also more prevalent among Republicans who were younger, were less educated, had less factual knowledge of politics and strongly identified with the party.
Of course this is still hypothetical.
Of course, our survey is only measuring reactions to a hypothetical situation. Were Trump to seriously propose postponing the election, there would be a torrent of opposition, which would most likely include prominent Republicans. Financial markets would presumably react negatively to the potential for political instability. And this is to say nothing of the various legal and constitutional complications that would immediately become clear. Citizens would almost certainly form their opinions amid such tumult, which does not at all resemble the context in which our survey was conducted.
Nevertheless, we do not believe that these findings can be dismissed out of hand. At a minimum, they show that a substantial number of Republicans are amenable to violations of democratic norms that are more flagrant than what is typically proposed (or studied). And although the ensuing chaos could turn more Republicans against this kind of proposal, it is also conceivable that a high-stakes and polarized debate would do the exact opposite.
Postponing the 2020 presidential election is not something that Trump or anyone in his administration has even hinted at, but for many in his constituency floating such an idea may not be a step too far.
I just Googled "Scaramucci" and "spend more time with his family", just to make sure that joke hadn't already been told ten thousand times already. And it's a good thing I did.
Maybe he could be Sean Spicer's dance partner.
I tweeted: "The Mooch has resigned in order to, 'meet my family.'"
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
The same people who shrug off Trump's foul mouth, including Melania and Ivanka, were so offended by the Mooch using the same kind of language that they just had to get rid of him after 10 or 11 days, buoyed by all those TV "journalists" who every time they mentioned that New Yorker article had to task tsk "things we can't say on TV", which only sent viewers to the magazine on-line to see what he said. Personally I thought it was quite funny, and far less offensive than Trump's aside to Billy Bush. Far more offensive were the Mooch's "I love this guy" pronouncements.
I just Googled "Scaramucci" and "spend more time with his family", just to make sure that joke hadn't already been told ten thousand times already. And it's a good thing I did.
They come in threes. RIP The Mooch. Ten glorious days of The Mooch. I'm going to miss this guy. He was just getting started. He was already so great. He didn't have a job like the head of the Department of Energy. He was the Communications Director. Nobody communicated so much, so well, so inexplicably on the record like The Mooch.
The Donald Trump Jr tweet was only two and a half weeks ago...it feels like last year...
Mister Tee wrote:
I've always lived in "John McCain gets way too much credit for talking big and doing a few symbolic things" territory, but my hat has to come off to him for being there when it counted last night/this morning. He of course could have ended it two days ago, and doing it this drawn-out way gave him maximum press exposure -- like he was envisioning it as the last scene in his biopic -- but credit for being the reason Obamacare still lives.
I give credit to anyone who voted against it, but there are degrees. It's more than just "he could have ended it two days ago". He also could have voted against all the other attempts to repeal Obamacare, much like Collins and Murkowski did (not to mention the Democrats, who stayed remarkably unified the entire time... which means that credit also has to go to Chuck Schumer.) If it weren't for them, he wouldn't have been able to make this dramatic maneuver. IOW, McCain made the decisive vote, no thanks to McCain.
In any event, it looks like Dr. Evil's honeymoon is finally over among Establishment Republicans, now that we have right-wing columnists totally up in arms against him. Since this is primarily a movie board, I'll mention the one by Peggy Noonan that everyone's talking about, calling him "Woody Allen without the humor". Not that I've read it - I ain't paying money to get on the other side of that paywall - but you'll find enough quoted excerpts all over the internets to get the point.
I think it's a low blow.... against Woody. I'll watch "Interiors" - or even "September" - again over ten seconds of a Trump speech. And I'll find more humor in the one than I will inspiration, thoughtfulness or mere comfort in the other.
Now they're saying that moving Kelly from Homeland Security to White House Chief of Staff is part of a larger plot to move Sessions to Homeland Security so that Trump can appoint a new Attorney General without upsetting the conservatives.
Mister Tee wrote
I've always lived in "John McCain gets way too much credit for talking big and doing a few symbolic things" territory, but my hat has to come off to him for being there when it counted last night/this morning. He of course could have ended it two days ago, and doing it this drawn-out way gave him maximum press exposure -- like he was envisioning it as the last scene in his biopic -- but credit for being the reason Obamacare still lives.
A few years ago, C-Span did a series called "The Contenders," examining the people who ran for the presidency, lost, but still had a huge impact. They set the cutoff at 1992, so the series did not include people like John McCain. I've wondered what McCain's last impact would be in the history books. The selection of Sarah Palin (a celebrity energizer for the far right)? His cheerleading of George W. Bush? Or maybe it's the contrast between his 2000 run and his 2008? These aren't uplifting choices for a guy who gets credit as one of the few Republicans that a Democrat would vote for. But I think last night we saw it. In 2008, he lost to Obama. In 2017, he saved Obamacare and surprised a cynical blogosphere that wrote him off as a hack, shell of a man that perhaps he never was. It's not a Goldwater moment. Just a maverick move. Hopefully, a Goldwater moment is waiting in the wings though. If anyone deserves that honor, it's McCain.
OscarGuy wrote:I don't know what cover it could have given Flake and Heller, the two most vulnerable Senators in 2018 as their votes will likely seal their fates with an electorate angry that they capitulated on a likely-fake agreement to not pass the Senate bill in the House.
This is overlooking the double-bind faced by all Republicans. To vote against this bill evokes rage from the All Powerful Base, who are completely capable of running against and possibly upsetting these guys in primaries next year. That's the first fear of the party right now. You're correct, after that, they have to face independents and swing voters in the general election, who hate the bill with a blind passion. But they're in the position of a team down 3 games to none in the World Series: if they don't win today, they won't ever get to game seven. Whereas, if they do get past a primary challenge, they can hope the public forgets their fury over the bill -- as they did their anger over the government shutdown -- and that, if the Koch brothers pour enough money into their campaigns, they might slip by in November.
A passed repeal bill would have been the worst of all worlds for them, since the public would hardly forget the real world consequences of 16-22 million losing their insurance prior to Election Day. So in that sense the Collins/Murkowski/McCain troika took a bullet to help the rest of the party.
I don't know what cover it could have given Flake and Heller, the two most vulnerable Senators in 2018 as their votes will likely seal their fates with an electorate angry that they capitulated on a likely-fake agreement to not pass the Senate bill in the House.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
I was up watching the vote unfold in the 1AM hour. It was grueling, and the feeling after was more relief at surviving impending death than triumph.
There'll be debate whether, in their heart of hearts, GOPers wanted this bill to fail -- knowing that passing it, causing so many to lose insurance so quickly, would lead to electoral disaster next year -- but put up a show of disappointment so their insatiable base would be fooled. Lawrence O'Donnell seems convinced of this -- that the three least-vulnerable-to-base-pressure Senators were chosen to sacrifice themselves so Heller, Flake et al. could go along. But I'm not sure that bears out. Pence was there, ready to cast the ghost vote for majority, and he -- along with Senators like Cornyn, who tried to plead with McCain -- looked genuinely devastated as the evening wore on (after having looked genuinely jubilant pre-midnight). Unless some Senators were in on the scam and some weren't, it's hard to accept this was all dumb-show.
I've always lived in "John McCain gets way too much credit for talking big and doing a few symbolic things" territory, but my hat has to come off to him for being there when it counted last night/this morning. He of course could have ended it two days ago, and doing it this drawn-out way gave him maximum press exposure -- like he was envisioning it as the last scene in his biopic -- but credit for being the reason Obamacare still lives.
I didn't feel a whit of sympathy for Mitch McConnell, especially listening to his whiny sore loser speech afterwards. He had the gall to criticize Dems for holding up votes on appointments -- Merrick Garland spits on him.
My favorite tweet last night: "Apparently Trump's closing argument -- "My Attorney General sucks" -- wasn't enough to push the bill over the line."
It's possible this will be a significant moment in charting Trump's survival. A good number of elected Republicans know full well that Trump is a dangerously incompetent, disgusting moron, but they've been willing to put up with that to get their legislative goals achieved. Now they see they stand at the end of six months with nothing passed, and only the Gorsuch appointment to please them (I realize, that's a big "only" for us, but from their vantage point, not worth the rest of the sturm und drang). This combined with the escalating chaos -- who'd have guessed The Mooch could surpass Spicey for self-parody so quickly? -- and the sense that Mueller's investigation is unearthing major embarrassment, could finally lead some GOPers to start distancing themselves. (However impervious to evidence they've seemed so far.)
The only question I have was whether McCain is a party man who wanted it to go to a vote...so he could vote no, or if the incompetence of the Trump administration's truly awful week (I know they've had worse, but man!) pushed him over the edge. Because if it's the latter, then perhaps the end is actually in sight.
