Campaign 2020

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:26 am

Sabin wrote:
Sabin wrote
Tomorrow's gonna be a big day.

According to Twitter:
NY AG Letitia James just announced she will make a major national announcement tomorrow at 11:30.

See y'all there!

Well... they're dissolving the NRA.

Still big.

Not exactly. They're filing a lawsuit against the NRA to dissolve their New York based charitable arm, not the organization as a whole. Their lobbying arm will remain intact.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:01 am

Sabin wrote
Tomorrow's gonna be a big day.

According to Twitter:
NY AG Letitia James just announced she will make a major national announcement tomorrow at 11:30.

See y'all there!

Well... they're dissolving the NRA.

Still big.
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Okri » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:35 am

Sabin wrote:Either way, one of the great sliding doors moments we'll be asking ourselves for years to come is "Would Trump have gotten re-elected if it wasn't for the Coronavirus?" Lichtman's scale seems to think he might've.


Yeah. I think he would have, to be honest.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:08 pm

Tomorrow's gonna be a big day.

According to Twitter:
NY AG Letitia James just announced she will make a major national announcement tomorrow at 11:30.

See y'all there!
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:37 pm

I saw that too. I was surprised to see Lichtman giving Trump the Policy Change key. Either way, Trump has 7 keys against him. This means if it wasn't for the Coronavirus, the long-term economy certainly would have held. The short-term economy possibly would have stayed strong and it is possible that the level of social unrest we are seeing would have been slightly lessened with full economy. It's worth noting that the last time the social unrest key was turned against an incumbent, it was the Vietnam War protests. I think with everybody at work, we don't see the same level of protest. Either way, one of the great sliding doors moments we'll be asking ourselves for years to come is "Would Trump have gotten re-elected if it wasn't for the Coronavirus?" Lichtman's scale seems to think he might've.
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:55 pm

From The Hill:

According to Lichtman’s system, seven factors favor the former vice president, including Democrats making gains in the 2018 midterm elections, short- and long-term economic hits amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, and “social unrest” sparked by the police killing of George Floyd earlier this year.

Lichtman also cited “scandal” for the White House, including Trump’s impeachment earlier this year, and the president not having any major foreign or military successes. He also claimed that Trump is not a “charismatic” candidate for large swaths of the country. The factors that favor the president include there being "no primary contest for the White House party," Trump being the incumbent and there being no significant third-party challenger. Lichtman also cited major policy changes such as Trump’s 2017 tax cut, the White House having no major foreign or military failures, and Biden not being "inspirational or charismatic."

However, Lichtman admitted that “there are forces at play outside the keys,” citing potential voter suppression efforts, possible meddling from Russia in the 2020 election and more.

“It’s up to you, the voter, to decide the future of our democracy,” he said.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Okri » Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:20 pm

Greg wrote:Although it is by now anticimactic, Allan Lichtman just predicted that Biden will defeat Trump.


Maybe but it is still a relief

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Greg » Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:47 pm

Although it is by now anticimactic, Allan Lichtman just predicted that Biden will defeat Trump.
"Let's be honest, the federal government has a printing press in their basement. When they have the political will, they find the money."

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:00 am

If this tidbit from Vanity Fair isn't tantamount to U.S. genocide, I don't know what is:

"Most troubling of all, perhaps, was a sentiment the expert said a member of Kushner’s team expressed: that because the virus had hit blue states hardest, a national plan was unnecessary and would not make sense politically. “The political folks believed that because it was going to be relegated to Democratic states, that they could blame those governors, and that would be an effective political strategy,” said the expert.

That logic may have swayed Kushner. “It was very clear that Jared was ultimately the decision maker as to what [plan] was going to come out,” the expert said."

Full article here:
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07 ... o-thin-air

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:46 am

OscarGuy wrote:He will see himself ranked last among presidents. I know he's not going to prison. Though, there is a possibility that he does get his Trump Tower Moscow. Does Russia have an extradition treaty with the US?

It won't faze him to see himself ranked last among presidents. He'll just shrug it off as more fake news. The odds of him or any of his family members going to jail for what we know now are pretty low but if they can prove treason, that's another matter.

Rather than extradite him from Russia, I would prefer to see a refusal to let him back in the U.S. or better still, a banishment to Russia as an alternative to imprisonment when he's found guilty of treason. At that point, the government should seize all his properties if they haven't already, and tear his name from all the buildings on which it is still displayed.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Okri » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:08 am

In the fan fiction version of now, Republicans turn on him because they have no choice but it's still too late and they crash and burn out. Then arrests are made.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby OscarGuy » Fri Jul 31, 2020 6:31 am

He will see himself ranked last among presidents. I know he's not going to prison. Though, there is a possibility that he does get his Trump Tower Moscow. Does Russia have an extradition treaty with the US?
Wesley Lovell
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sonic Youth » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:08 am

OscarGuy wrote:My hope is that he lives long enough to see historians rank him as a worse president in history and to find his entire legacy erased like he did to Obama. Icing on the cake would be for him to witness all of this from behind the bars of the New York State Penitentiary and even more icing, doing so alongside his two eldest sons and his son-in-law while not getting a visit from his daughter because she's in the women's lock-up.


One thing he WILL see if he lives long enough is the out-of-control economic belly flop that's going to infect New York City. He and his family can watch the value of all their properties go down the toilet. And it'd be all his own doing. (Although he'll probably solely blame Deblasio. Tbf, there IS a lot of blame to go around.)
"What the hell?"
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby OscarGuy » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:39 pm

My hope is that he lives long enough to see historians rank him as a worse president in history and to find his entire legacy erased like he did to Obama. Icing on the cake would be for him to witness all of this from behind the bars of the New York State Penitentiary and even more icing, doing so alongside his two eldest sons and his son-in-law while not getting a visit from his daughter because she's in the women's lock-up.
Wesley Lovell

"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:15 pm

Sonic Youth wrote:American politicians can go far, but are institutionally too set in their ways to got THAT far. Which is not to say Trump didn't cross a dangerous ledge by saying what he did. He did, and that's why he needs to be kicked out of office, and hopefully erased from memory entirely.


No, he needs to be remembered as a deterrent. Never again must we go through what we have gone through the last five years as a country.


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