Campaign 2020

[Sabin]

Greg wrote
The Dow had another thousand-point drop today. If we are heading to the cloud of a recession, at least there is the silver lining of Trump's reelection chances being over.

I wonder if Jimmy Carter thought that was a silver lining for his election as well.

[Greg]

The Dow had another thousand-point drop today. If we are heading to the cloud of a recession, at least there is the silver lining of Trump's reelection chances being over.

[Sabin]

It looks like after a strong debate performance and Jim Clyburn's endorsement, Joe Biden is going to win South Carolina. It's not a sure thing and anything could happen but his chances seem to be improving by the day. He lives to fight another day...

... but what happens next? The New York Times reports shockingly that Joe Biden has not campaigned in a single Super Tuesday state in over a month. He has one office in California. ONE. Bernie Sanders has twenty-three. The most charitable explanation is that Biden thinks California is a lost cause and wants to campaign more heavily in Texas and North Carolina. The least charitable explanation is the Biden campaign is a mess.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/us/p ... esday.html

[Okri]

Sweet christ, Magilla's comments are wildly demoralizing.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Warren seemed like a reasonable compromise between moderate and progressive candidates as late as last week, but she can't seem to get the votes and horrifically, she's now revealed herself to be Madame DeFarge - a woman scorned and out for blood against the evil billionaire who gave money to her opponent in her first (and so far only) Senate race.

Do you think that's the reason why she's going after Mayor Bloomberg? She's bitter about Bloomberg financing the opponent that she beat with a stick -- and 60% of the vote? I don't buy that.

Don't listen to James Carville. Warren isn't "a woman scorned." She doesn't hate Bloomberg more than she wants to win. Bloomberg was a gift for Warren. Warren is thrilled Bloomberg is in the campaign. Since she first burst on the scene, she's gone after Wall Street, billionaires, and other titans of finance. Bloomberg's presence revitalized her campaign.

The real winner of that debate is everyone who got paid out of Bloomberg's pocket to sit in that debate crowd.

[Big Magilla]

Elizabeth Warren has run and won two senate races.

I stand corrected.

Does your analogy make Bloomberg the Marquis?

I hadn't thought of that, but I suppose it does to the point of his having thrown money at Lindsay Graham four years ago, after which he entered into a state of enlightenment in which I hope he stays.

[Sonic Youth]

Elizabeth Warren has run and won two senate races.

Does your analogy make Bloomberg the Marquis?

[Big Magilla]

As we approach the South Carolina and Super Tuesday primaries, I am more disgusted by this travesty than ever.

Sanders is the front-runner because he is the only so-called progressive with a chance, but the majority of the Democratic party remains moderate and the country as a whole even more so. Sanders may be able to win the Presidency against the Hitler/Mussolini clone in the White House, but can he bring down ballot candidates with him and get anything done once he's there? These are big questions for which the answer is at best, maybe. The candidate has to be someone who can win, bring down ballot candidates with him or her and get things done. More and more, that candidate seems to be the original front-runner.

Bloomberg, Steyer, Klobuchar, Warren and maybe Buttigieg need to get out of the race now.

Bloomberg entered the race as an alternative to the faltering Biden to keep Sanders from winning the Democratic nomination, but the only one he has helped is, ironically, Sanders. With Biden finally in fighting shape, he needs to fade into the background fast.

Steyer is a wet noodle. He should never have been in the race to begin with.

Klobuchar tried, but she can't build any real excitement.

Warren seemed like a reasonable compromise between moderate and progressive candidates as late as last week, but she can't seem to get the votes and horrifically, she's now revealed herself to be Madame DeFarge - a woman scorned and out for blood against the evil billionaire who gave money to her opponent in her first (and so far only) Senate race.

Buttigieg is the most acceptable fallback candidate to Biden at this point. Maybe he should stay until after Super Tuesday, but any longer than that, would only help Sanders which by extension would be a boon to Trump and the Congressional Republicans.

[Sabin]

There are two articles I am reading right now. One of them is called "TOO EARLY" and the other is called "NOT TOO EARLY."

"TOO EARLY!"
We can't know who the nominee will be. Super Tuesday hasn't even happened yet. Anything could happen.

"NOT TOO EARLY!"
If it's Bernie Sanders, we're going to lose the House of Representatives this fall.

It would be nice if I saw one story about how the first Jewish candidate for President was poised to win all fifty states in the primary for every thirty I read about how it's over! We're going to lose the House of Representatives in the fall. Tomorrow, I will be reading an article about how Bernie Sanders can't win because of the Coronavirus and presumably what its implications are on Medicare For All. And that's only the first half of the week.

I'm sure there are reasons why Bernie Sanders puts down-ballot candidates at risk in 2020, just as there were reasons why Donald Trump put down-ballot candidates at risk in 2016. For the bulk of 2016, I remember hearing "It's over. Donald Trump can't win. The GOP is imploding. Republicans are advising down-ballot candidates to run from Trump." And it didn't happen. They were all wrong.

Bernie Sanders is a weird candidate. There are reasons why he puts down-ballot candidates at risk. There are always reasons why he gives them an advantage. Anyone who says that the latter doesn't exist, I don't believe them.

All of which said not as a "Sandersnista", as Wes coined early.

Highlight of the week will be a clip of Chris Matthews saying something unbelievable live on TV and the response he got. Nope, not comparing Sanders to Nazis. This:

CHRIS MATTHEWS: "I’m wondering if the Democratic moderates want Bernie Sanders to be President? I mean, that’s maybe too exciting a question to raise–they don’t like Trump at all. Do they want Bernie Sanders to take over the Democratic Party in perpetuity? I mean, he takes it over, he sets the direction of the future of the party. Maybe they’d rather wait four years and put in the Democrat that they like.”

Points to Adrienne Elrod, a pause, a very awkward look.

ADRIENNE ELROD (Hillary Clinton Advisor/Democratic Party Strategist): “That’s the big question, right. There are people that are concerned-– strategists that are concerned–- that Bernie Sanders being at the top of the ticket will force us to lose the House. I don’t necessarily think that’s the case -- "

CHRIS MATTHEWS: "How about the future? How about losing the future?”

ADRIENNE ELROD: “It’s early."

Too early to predict the future but if it's Bernie Sanders we're going to lose the House. Cool.

[taki15]

I'm going to throw out a little thought grenade right now: what happens if Sanders win the popular vote of EVERY STATE.

This would have been inconceivable a few weeks, months, or years ago. But it's likelier than you might think. Right now, Sanders has tightened up the race in South Carolina considerably. There are a few polls that show him winning. Sanders beating Biden in South Carolina was Jeb Bush's cue to leave the race. Joe Biden will likely drop out. Where do his supporters go? According to Morning Consult, 33% of Joe Biden voters list Bernie Sanders as their second choice. 24% list Michael Bloomberg. 14% list Elizabeth Warren. That means conservatively, everyone gets a bump.

Last year, I bet my friend that Bernie Sanders would get the most delegates and that you couldn't argue that he wasn't the front-runner. Sanders gets me $60, Biden, Harris, or Warren gets him $20. I never thought it would be the easiest $60 I'd ever make.

That's fine, but then I read articles like these about the general election:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... rates-data

and then get nervous all over again

The whole thing with Sanders praising Castro and then doubling down on it shows how easily it will be for Republicans to caricature him in the general.

[Sonic Youth]

I'm going to throw out a little thought grenade right now: what happens if Sanders win the popular vote of EVERY STATE.

This would have been inconceivable a few weeks, months, or years ago. But it's likelier than you might think. Right now, Sanders has tightened up the race in South Carolina considerably. There are a few polls that show him winning. Sanders beating Biden in South Carolina was Jeb Bush's cue to leave the race. Joe Biden will likely drop out. Where do his supporters go? According to Morning Consult, 33% of Joe Biden voters list Bernie Sanders as their second choice. 24% list Michael Bloomberg. 14% list Elizabeth Warren. That means conservatively, everyone gets a bump.

Last year, I bet my friend that Bernie Sanders would get the most delegates and that you couldn't argue that he wasn't the front-runner. Sanders gets me $60, Biden, Harris, or Warren gets him $20. I never thought it would be the easiest $60 I'd ever make.

That's fine, but then I read articles like these about the general election:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... rates-data

and then get nervous all over again

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wriote
Oh no. The Sandernistas will be coming after Magilla here shortly.

Some of or those items are a bit nitpicky, but many of them valid while some of the aren't true to my knowledge.

And a few are just lies.

Big Magilla wrote
24. Did only 43 events for Hillary Clinton after she won the nomination – by contrast, Hillary did more than 100 events for Barack Obama in 2008.

I really don't want to re-litigate the 2016 election but bind me one article that says Hillary Clinton did more than 100 events for Barack Obama -- or that Clinton did more events for Obama than Sanders did for Clinton.

Don't get news from Jeffrey Wells.

[Sabin]

Prior to tonight's debate, Nate Silver gives the following odds, not vote share (everyone listed is above 5%).

CA—Sanders 79%, Biden 9%, Bloomberg 6%
TX—Sanders 59%, Biden 26%, Bloomberg 11%
NC—Sanders 52%, Biden 24%, Bloomberg 20%
VA—Sanders 49%, Biden 24%, Bloomberg 24%
MA—Sanders 57%, Warren 26%, Biden 8%, Bloomberg 5%
MN—Klobuchar 49%, Sanders 45%
CO—Sanders 83%, Warren 6%, Biden 6%
TN—Sanders 45%, Biden 33%, Bloomberg 17%
AL—Biden 55%, Sanders 25%, Bloomberg 18%
OK—Sanders 36%, Bloomberg 31%, Biden 26%
AR—Sanders 40%, Bloomberg 28%, Biden 22%, Buttigieg 7%
UT—Sanders 87%, Warren 5%
ME—Sanders 67%, Bloomberg 10%, Warren 9%, Buttigieg 7%, Biden 7%
VT—Sanders >99%
AS—Sanders 38%, Biden 26%, Bloomberg 23%, Warren 8%

I'm going to throw out a little thought grenade right now: what happens if Sanders win the popular vote of EVERY STATE.

This would have been inconceivable a few weeks, months, or years ago. But it's likelier than you might think. Right now, Sanders has tightened up the race in South Carolina considerably. There are a few polls that show him winning. Sanders beating Biden in South Carolina was Jeb Bush's cue to leave the race. Joe Biden will likely drop out. Where do his supporters go? According to Morning Consult, 33% of Joe Biden voters list Bernie Sanders as their second choice. 24% list Michael Bloomberg. 14% list Elizabeth Warren. That means conservatively, everyone gets a bump.

Last year, I bet my friend that Bernie Sanders would get the most delegates and that you couldn't argue that he wasn't the front-runner. Sanders gets me $60, Biden, Harris, or Warren gets him $20. I never thought it would be the easiest $60 I'd ever make.

[OscarGuy]

Oh no. The Sandernistas will be coming after Magilla here shortly.

Some of or those items are a bit nitpicky, but many of them valid while some of the aren't true to my knowledge.

[taki15]

Bernie actually took a hit after his heart attack. Warren rose around the same time. It was after the note from Sanders' doctor that he was entirely healthy that his support rose again. One more heart attack, though, and he's through in the race. No one will trust his doctors after that (like no one trusts Trump's).

Considering the fact that he refused to release his medical records both in 2016 and now, and that his campaign tried to hide what really happened to him, nobody should trust Sanders and his lackeys when it comes to his health.