Campaign 2020

Big Magilla
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

I had a conversation last night with my 90-year-old neighbor who hasn't missed an election in his life and is typical of the Fox News Trump watchers. He was more agitated over something Representative Omar said that was apparently a big story on Fox News for three nights running Mon- Wed than by anything his "President Trump" said or did.

Trump and his cronies commit crimes in plain sight, lie about them and defy Congress when caught by which time they're old news to the general public. The comeback line from my neighbor and many other mostly old Republican voters is that there are a lot of other politicians who belong in jail. The problem is that these people vote for their candidate no matter what. It may not be enough to get him re-elected this time but the strategy is clearly going to be the same as it was last time, make fools of the Democrats so that large segments of Democratic voters stay home and the Republicans will eke out yet another victory.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Sonic Youth wrote
Fuck Fox News. Are we all so whipped that we can't respond to anything he does without saying "But his base..." and "But Fox News..."? This, it would seem to me, is the next level of corruption and needs to be more forcefully dealt with. But if Pelosi (who i agreed with until today) and all the Democratic supporters are just going to sink into complacency and despondence, then I guess we shouldn't even bother.
I didn’t post that link out of complacency. I posted it out (I suppose) naive astonishment.

That said, over the past few months my political ideology has evolved. I used to scour candidates for their proposals and stances. I don’t care about that anymore. My number one priority is this: beating Republicans. All but the most benign of them have enabled and granted safe harbor to the worst our country has to offer. I want them to lose and lose badly for the longest stretch of time imaginable. For the most part, when Democrats lose, our most at-risk citizens are put in jeopardy. I don’t want to win. I want to crush. My choice is a young Democrat running with another young Democrat.
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Sonic Youth
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sonic Youth »

Maybe this should have gone in the New Developments III thread.

Fuck Fox News. Are we all so whipped that we can't respond to anything he does without saying "But his base..." and "But Fox News..."? This, it would seem to me, is the next level of corruption and needs to be more forcefully dealt with. But if Pelosi (who i agreed with until today) and all the Democratic supporters are just going to sink into complacency and despondence, then I guess we shouldn't even bother.

I can't wait for the kids who protested earlier today to reach voting age. I think they'll be great leaders.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

When I google “Joe Biden Fox News” this is what comes up.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnew ... a-hill.amp

I think we’re just going to have to accept that the country is split in two and there’s nothing we can do about it. The only difference is that one side hates Democrats while the other side hates Republicans and other Democrats.
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Big Magilla
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

I hope you're right, but this isn't even making headlines outside of CNN, MSNBC, the New York Times and the Washington Post.

Will they even get the transcript of the conversation before the election? If so, then there's a fighting chance that he will be impeached. If not, then it will end up just being another unproved allegation that Fox News will convince its legions is part of the "deeply partisan spin" of the Democrats.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sonic Youth »

I have no idea if Ukraine-gate will finally provide the decisive blow. But this one has a real "It's this or nothing" overtone to it.

I was in the "don't bother impeaching" camp for a while.*

That ends today. This looks much more likely than Russia-gate (which always felt too vague and theoretical to me) that they can get the goods on him, and sway a few Republicans in the meantime. Impeachment is imperative.
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*My reasoning: a). Don't bother, if there's no way to do it successfully; b). and there's no way to do it successfully when congress is this partisan. c.) I don't believe in the bullshit deflection argument that impeachment proceedings detracts congress from other issues. But it DOES detract from other investigations. Make sure you have a sure-fire case, because you won't get a second chance; and d). You know he WANTS to be impeached. He wants to show how ineffective impeachment proceedings are, so why give him what he wants?
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

Well, yes, we do need to look beyond the next election, but we don't need to do it with the same person. If we elect a Biden, a Bernie or a Warren, we definitely need someone younger on the ticket who can take over if the oldster fails or has to retire after their first term.

On the other hand, it's a good bet that things will get worse in the next fourteen months. Trump and his sycophants may yet bring the country down so low that no one will forget what happened when they ran the country that we will have real democracy for the next seventy years like Germany after Hitler.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

I've had a slight political conversion over the past few weeks but before I delve into that, I wanted to post this.

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/09/donald ... trategist/

Earlier this year, I watched Donald Trump Jr. at a podium and I felt a weird tinge. I saw something. I said "Uh oh." They liked him. The Republican Party is just a reactionary, culture warrior cult of personality. It's toxic. They aren't hiding it. And to be honest, I'm really not sure how many voters Trump has actually lost. These voters come home.

So, the test of the Democratic nominee isn't just "Who can win in 2020?" But "Who can win in 2024?" "Which Vice President can win in 2028?" Because if we give the Republican Party four years to regroup, they'll run Donald Trump Jr. or someone like Rep. Dan Crenshaw. They won't be historically incompetent in that their literal minds aren't falling apart. And then we'll be in trouble.

So, my policy as a Democratic voter is this: who can beat the Republicans the most for the longest period of time?

That's it.

I am uninterested in purity tests. I would like to see some real significant changes in this country but I also don't want to fumble so bad we lose the ball forever.

Right now my preferred candidate is Elizabeth Warren. I'm concerned about her age and electability but she seems to be ascendant in the party. There are a lot of things I do not like about Kamala Harris and she's prone to saying some ill-advised things in the name of a hard stance (banning plastic straws? using executive order for gun control?), but she's young, she can revive the Obama coalition, she's lucky, pragmatic, and not an ideologue (historically not a bad combination) and she seems like someone who could weather reelection.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

John Hinkenlooper just dropped out of the race. This the first and probably only time you will be able to say that John Hinkenlooper is trending on Twitter.

I have no doubt that John Hinkenlooper was sincerely running for President. This wasn't just a profile boost to subsequently run for Senate. He ran a terrible campaign, picked up no momentum, said a few weird things, and called it quits very early. He is rumored to be challenging Cory Gardner for his Senate seat. This is an interesting strategy of running for President to raise one's profile and then run for Senate. I've been wondering if such a strategy would backfire on Beto O'Rourke were he to (mercifully) drop out and run for Senate. I'm not sure. But for Hinkenlooper, I think it might. Maybe for Steve Bullock as well. If all three of them drop out of the race and run for Senate and help us take it back, I will say five words I never thought I'd say in my life: "God bless you, John Hinkenlooper."
"How's the despair?"
Big Magilla
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

I created a new thread for the Epstein Case here:

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=11743
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Bog »

Not sure if this goes here...but scumbag 101 takes the easy way out...supposedly on "suicide watch" so we shall see what actually comes out regarding autopsy etc.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/10/us/epste ... index.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/10/nyre ... icide.html
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Mister Tee »

It's been my observation, over decades of watching presidencies, that, for those that end in failure (i.e., defeat at the next election), there's often a moment of no-return, after which it's all over but the election night crying. For LBJ, it was the Tet offensive. For Jimmy Carter, the malaise speech. For George HW Bush, the LA riots. For George W Bush, Katrina. This isn't to say there weren't other negative events that followed some of those turning points -- the Dems in '68 also had the Bobby Kennedy assassination and the disastrous convention; Carter had the hostage crisis; and W had the crumbling of both Iraq and the economy. But, in many ways, the die was cast at those earlier moments noted -- points at which the collective public seemed to say, that's it, we just can't take having this guy as president anymore...a verdict borne out the next time they got to vote. (LBJ and W of course weren't personally held to account, but they were clearly responsible for their would-be successors' defeats.)

I feel like this is that kind of moment. The confluence of Trump's racist speeches these past several weeks, the El Paso shooter so directly echoing those sentiments, Trump's utter inability to project an ounce of presidential empathy, and the surety that Republicans as a unit will block any significant legislation to end this plague of guns...all those things coming together (with the horror of kids-in-cages and the Russia investigation in the background, and economic jitters just over the horizon) give a sense that a solid majority of America just wants this guy and his party OVER.

This isn't to dismiss whatever events the next 15 months will bring, or the haggling we'll see as the primaries grind on. They'll have impact of one kind or another. But I think we've crossed a significant line in this past week, and I wouldn't want to be on the GOP's side of it.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016c ... ef79f50001

New poll. Some really interesting stuff.

Interesting shit from the poll:
- A few high numbers numbers: Obama is totally favorable (94%), Trump is totally unfavorable (90%), Totally disapprove of Trump (90%), Country is on the wrong track (89%), Strongly disapprove of Congress Republicans (86%), I am absolutely certain to vote in 2020 (81%), Strongly approve of Congress Democrats (79%), Mike Pence is totally unfavorable (76%), FUCKING. IMPEACH HIM (70%), Congress should pass a health care bill (64%), Strongly approve of job Obama did as President (63%), Didn't talk enough about gun control (63%). So to be clear, Impeachment falls slightly below I FUCKING HATE MIKE PENCE and slightly above WE NEED HEALTH CARE! and "Yeah, I think Obama was a good President." IMPEACHMENT IS MORE POPULAR THAN OBAMA'S JOB PERFORMANCE (though not as high as his favorability).
- I am fairly surprised that more Democrats would absolutely not vote for Joe Biden (14%) than Bernie Sanders (9%). Undermines his standing as a consensus choice.
- Only 57% of Dems consider climate change a top priority.
- 30% of Dems say the debates are focusing too much on Medicare for All. 34% say not enough and 30% say the right amount. These results are weirdly fitting.
- Only 67% of Dems are completely against a border wall. Almost a quarter put it somewhere between a low priority and an important but not top priority.
- Elizabeth Warren is the only candidate with more "Excellent" ratings than "Good," "Fair," "Poor," or "No Opinion." She was also overall voted the best performer (31%) by almost twice her nearest competitor (Bernie with 18%).
- Bernie came a close second with 32% Excellent, 37% Good, and 21% Fair. Bernie was one of the only other candidates whose Good's Out-Performed His/Her Fair's. Pete Butrtigieg had 32% Good and 28% Fair (20% Excellent), Joe Biden had 36% Good and 23% Fair (27% Excellent), Kamala Harris had 37% Good to 24% Fair (20% Excellent), Cory Booker had 37% Good t o25% Fair (20% Excellent), Julian Castro had 35% Good to 28% Fair (12% Excellent), and Andrew Yang had 33% Good to 30% Fair (10% Excellent). This is good news for Bernie and Joe because they are the only other candidate whose Good's are in competition more with his Excellent's than his Fair's.
- I'm watching a different debate than most people. Joe Biden came in third with 14%, the only other candidate with double-digit support. Next up is Kamala Harris with 8% and Cory Booker with 5% (who ranks below Don't Know/No Opinion). Spidey Sense tells me that Debate Two just grossed people out too much with infighting. Especially considering that 63% of Democrats strongly approve of Obama's performance as President.
- Most Poor's? Bill de Blasio. 26% watching said he gave a Poor performance. And yet more Democrats said they would absolutely not vote for Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris than De Blaz.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Greg »

Sabin wrote:Now that the party has moved into three different directions (Moderates, Progressives, Representation), it's hard to see where Cory Booker fits. Nobody can really pick him as a running mate because they need a woman or a person of color. He won't be Elizabeth Warren's running mate because Progressive Dems don't trust him. Before his Presidential run, he took as much corporate money as anyone else in the party. There is video of him in 2012 defending Mitt Romney's activities with Bain Capital.
It is definitely a bad look to defend a company that conducted job interviews at fraternity hazings.

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/cu ... es-238604/
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

In other news, Joe Biden condemned the shootings in Houston and Michigan today. I'm getting pretty scared that he's getting close to bathrobe territory.
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