The Original BJ wrote:I highly doubt that a Paul Haggis-scripted film will win Best Picture three years in a row, especially after the Crash backlash.
And Magilla isn't the only one to make this mistake, (a recent article in Variety did as well), but Paul Haggis did not ever win consecutive screenplay trophies. Please let's not allot more Oscars to the man than he already owns.
P.S. I too, am dying to see Dreamgirls.
Although I prefer to be pretend he won the Oscar for "Million Dollar Baby" (over the overrated "Sideways") rather than winning for the awful "Crash." And yes "Dreamgirls" is probably going to be huge and if so, I hope it brings Condon the Directing nomination he deserved for "Gods and Monsters."
I'm going on record now though as saying that if Scorsese's "The Departed" is in serious contention and he loses Directing AGAIN, I may just have to give up on the Oscars altogether. Ok, so maybe that's an empty threat but for me it will be as insulting as "Brokeback Mountain" losing Best Picture.
Finally, Beyonce? Really Magilla? I've never seen the appeal of this performer besides her obvious good looks. But I guess stranger things have happened. Cher does have an Oscar after all. For acting. In a leading role.
Big Magilla wrote:Most voters will not be looking at such subtelties as who wrote the screenplay, they will be voting for the film that most appealed to them. War films, especially films about World War II do not lose at the Oscars unless they are up against other war films (Twelve O'Clock and Battleground lost to All the King's Men, Saving Private Ryan and The Thin Red Line lost to Shakespeare in Love), so unless Eastwood's film turns out to be a real disappointment it has to be given the edge going into teh race.
At this point, of course, we don't know how Flags will be received or what other pictures will capture the Academy's favor. But what is working against Dreamgirls in the Screenplay category is the fact that for whatever reason Academy voters have never seemed to give much respect to the screenplas of musicals. Even such Oscar successes as West Side Story and Sound of Music didn't take home writing gold (and the latter wasn't even nominated, despite the fact that it was written by Hollywood heavyweight Ernest Lehman), and the same was true for Bill Condon himself with Chicago.
"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
Eric wrote:I don't know much about Broadway, but isn't this a little bit like saying... oh, for the sake of argument, a hypothetical performance by Edward Norton in a remake of A Streetcar Named Desire would make everyone forget about Marlon Brando? or one by Lindsay Lohan in Cats would make everyone forget about Betty Buckley?
Well, it's more like saying that Humphrey bogart's performance in The Caine Mutiny made everyone forget Lloyd Nolan's on stage, and Julie Andrews's in The Sound of Music msd everyone forget about Mary Martin, even though Nolan and Martin both won Tonys for their performances.
By the way, I've been trying to forget Betty Buckley ever since I saw Cats in 1983. One of the 2 or 3 worst evenings I've ever had at the theatre.
"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
Damien wrote:I saw Jennifer Holliday's performance on Broadway. I've seen Jennifer Hudson performance. Hudson is so much more believable, realistic, dynamic, grounded and affecting than her stage predeccessor. Come December, "I'm Tellign You I'm Not Going" will no longer be thought of as Holliday's song.
I don't know much about Broadway, but isn't this a little bit like saying... oh, for the sake of argument, a hypothetical performance by Edward Norton in a remake of A Streetcar Named Desire would make everyone forget about Marlon Brando? or one by Lindsay Lohan in Cats would make everyone forget about Betty Buckley?
Personally, I don't remember liking the music in Dreamgirls all that much in the first place. But the trailer did catch my eye even with the sound off.
I can see a scenario where certain AMPAS voters would want to give another Oscar to a Paul Haggis scripted film as a way of saying they were right this year, but the Best Picture Oscar is voted on by everyone, not just members of the actors, writers and directors branches. Most voters will not be looking at such subtelties as who wrote the screenplay, they will be voting for the film that most appealed to them. War films, especially films about World War II do not lose at the Oscars unless they are up against other war films (Twelve O'Clock and Battleground lost to All the King's Men, Saving Private Ryan and The Thin Red Line lost to Shakespeare in Love), so unless Eastwood's film turns out to be a real disappointment it has to be given the edge going into teh race.
I highly doubt that a Paul Haggis-scripted film will win Best Picture three years in a row, especially after the Crash backlash.
And Magilla isn't the only one to make this mistake, (a recent article in Variety did as well), but Paul Haggis did not ever win consecutive screenplay trophies. Please let's not allot more Oscars to the man than he already owns.
I expect this film to be huge. The momentum is building with well received footage shown at Cannes and the teaser trailer on the Tonys. The movie going public is starved for a good musical following the jaw droppingly awful film verions of Rent and The Producers.
We could be looking at a repeat of the 1972 Oscars with Dreamgirls and Flags of Our Fathers battling it out the way Cabaret and The Godfather did back then, with Dreamgirls taking the lion's share of the awards and the emotionally charged Flags taking best picture and one or two other awards. Clint Eastwood's film may win the best picture Oscar, but he is unlikely to win a third for his direction, leaving Martin Scorsese (The Departed) as Bill Condon's only threat.
Cabaret took home two acting awards for Liza Minnelli and Joel Grey, Godfather one for Marlon Brando. Dreamgirls could take home two for Beyonce Knowles and Jennifer Hudson and Flags one for Adam Beach. Eddie Murphy is a wild card. A win for him as well as the two women would make Dreamgirls the first musical to win three Oscars. It could also make it the first time that African-Americans take home more than two awards in the same evening. In fact, African-Americans could win in all four acting categories with the highly respected Forest Whitaker a strong contender for The Last King of Scotland. The problem, though, is that they will want to give Flags more than one award so I see it taking supporting actor for Native American Beach. The real question mark is screenplay. Will Paul Haggis take home his third consecutive screenplay award or will Bill Condon take hom his second?
Coincidences and ironies abound. Sinatra won his Oscar for his first non-musical. If Murphy wins it will be for his first. Sinatra was playign a soldier who died prior to America's entry into World War II. Beach plays a soldier who raised a flag on Iwo Jima at the end of that war.
Liza and Beyonce are performers with a rare first name recognition. When Liza won, she won over two African-American actresses (Diana Ross, Cicely Tyson) for starring in the hit film version of a legendary Broadway musical in which the actress playing her part (Jill Haworth) failed to win a Tony nomination. This time it's the African-American actress starring in the (potential) hit film version of a legendary Broadway musical in which the actress playing her part (Sheryl Lee Ralph), though nominated for a Tony, failed to win.
Damien wrote:Eddie Murphy is a definite Supporting Actor contender.
Given the role's Tony-garnering provenance, Murphy's luminary status (and latter-day career-humbling), I've been of the opinion for a while that this part has Sinatra/From Here to Eternity comeback vibes all over it.
OscarGuy wrote:He's meaning that he's seen her perform elsewhere. I don't think he meant IN the new movie. I think he's just saying that from what he's seen of her performances so far, that she'll top Holliday.
No I saw a very rough cut of the movie.
Hudson is great! Beyonce is also terrific, and Eddie Murphy is a definite Supporting Actor contender.
"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
He's meaning that he's seen her perform elsewhere. I don't think he meant IN the new movie. I think he's just saying that from what he's seen of her performances so far, that she'll top Holliday.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
anonymous wrote:Here's Jennifer Holliday's performance during the 1982 Tonys.
It's in-freakin-credible. Jennifer Hudson's gonna have a tough time even equalling that.
I saw Jennifer Holliday's performance on Broadway. I've seen Jennifer Hudson performance. Hudson is so much more believable, realistic, dynamic, grounded and affecting than her stage predeccessor. Come December, "I'm Tellign You I'm Not Going" will no longer be thought of as Holliday's song.
"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
