Box Office - 2007 will be a record year

[OscarGuy]

Well, Ratatouille's faltering and it doesn't appear word of mouth has buoyed it, which means it's probably going to finish south of Cars' total.

[Franz Ferdinand]

Harry Potter ended up with a $77M weekend (the lowest weekend total of the series), but with $140M in five days, far above Goblet of Fire's previous high of $119M in the same period. Dubiously, it is the lowest rated entry in the series on Rotten Tomatoes (its 76% just below Sorcerer's Stone's 78%). How this will affect its legs in the long run will be seen, but personally it is the first HP I have an overwhelming desire to see in the theaters for a second time. Next weekend will be an interesting one to see, with the release of the final book: how will the book affect the movie's box office?

[rolotomasi99]

The movie just fell almost 60% on Thursday for a running total of $62M. It won't reach $200M so fast, but it will do just fine.

yeah, it looks like it will make $150 million in its first five days. it will probably take another 3 or four days to pass $200 million, but i am still predicting it as the number one harry potter film and the number one film of the year.

[Franz Ferdinand]

The movie just fell almost 60% on Thursday for a running total of $62M. It won't reach $200M so fast, but it will do just fine.

[Sabin]

PIXAR RANKINGS...
'Toy Story' - ****
'A Bug's Life' - ****
'Toy Story 2' - ****
'Monsters, Inc.' - ****
'The Incredibles' - ****
'Ratatouille' - ***1/2
'Finding Nemo' - ***1/2
'Cars' - ***

As you can tell, I think 'Toy Story' is something of a masterpiece. For the most part, I view the quality of the PIXAR movies in descending order release date-wise. My big beef with 'Finding Nemo' is that its narrative screeches to a hault in the dentist's office, off-setting the emotional heft of the Albert Brooks/Ellen DeGeneres story.

[rolotomasi99]

Order of the Phoenix has the top Wednesday opening in box office history beating Spider Man 2 by $4 M. That's quite substantive...

could THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX actually make $200 million by the end of sunday (5 days) thus beating PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2 et al record of 8 days to make $200 million? i definitely think $350 million is well within its reach for its final run.

[OscarGuy]

Something you neglected to mention, Franz...

Order of the Phoenix has the top Wednesday opening in box office history beating Spider Man 2 by $4 M. That's quite substantive...

[Franz Ferdinand]

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix debuts to a Wednesday record of $44.2M - eight days after Transformers set the Tuesday and July 4th records. This number is the highest one-day take of the series so far, even when adjusted for inflation. Today will see a lower number, but it should still make above $90M for the weekend and crack $150M within its first week in theaters. Not only that, but it has no real competition for its demographic until next weekend - when the seventh and final book is released.
In some circles, the fifth book is regarded as one of the weakest in the series, while the new movie is seen as one of the best so far. This movie could become another juggernaut, and might even hold up better if people realize there is more substance here than getting pummeled senseless by giant robots and CGI. Go Harry!

[OscarGuy]

i certainly hope so. i freaking loved RATATOUILLE. currently, i think the pixar films rank as:
--great--
1) TOY STORY 2
2) FINDING NEMO
3) TOY STORY
4) RATATOUILLE
--good--
5) A BUG'S LIFE
6) THE INVINCEBLES
7) CARS
MONSTERS INC

not a single bad film so far. not since miyazaki has any creative team been so successful.

Here's my personal ranking of the Pixar films.

1. Toy Story 2 (1999) *** 1/2
2. Ratatouille (2007) *** 1/2
3. A Bug's Life (1998) *** 1/2
4. Finding Nemo (2003) *** 1/2
5. The Incredibles (2004) *** 1/2
6. Monsters, Inc. (2001) *** 1/2
7. Cars (2006) *** 1/2
8. Toy Story (1995) ** 1/2

As you can see, I find the original Toy Story annoying. I don't think it's anywhere near its best. However, I fell in love with A Bug's Life when I saw it. Next to Finding Nemo, it was one of the funniest movies I've seen in the animated milieu.

And how does imdb see it currently:

Ratatouille - 8.7/10 (11,069 votes) Ranked 44th.
The Incredibles - 8.2/10 (76,327 votes) Ranked 121st.
Finding Nemo - 8.2/10 (81,772 votes) Ranked 123rd.
Toy Story 2 - 8.0/10 (65,712 votes) Ranked 182nd.
Toy Story - 8.0/10 (73,888 votes) Ranked 183rd.
Monsters, Inc. - 7.9/10 (65,422) Unranked.
A Bug's Life - 7.3/10 (33,694 votes) Unranked.
Cars - 7.6/10 (28,075 votes) Unranked.

Brad Bird's two films have obviously resonated with audiences. Now, Ratatouille's rating is very new so it will probably drop, but I think the support it's getting is rather amazing.

Here's some figures from Rotten Tomatoes.

Toy Story 2 - 100% Fresh (120+/0-) 8.5/10 Average (CoC: 100% 8.2/10 Average)
Toy Story - 100% Fresh (43+/0-) 8.8/10 Average (CoC: 100% 8.5/10 Average)
Finding Nemo - 98% Fresh (183+/4-) 8.5/10 Average (CoC: 100% 8.5/10 Average)
The Incredibles - 97% Fresh (211+/7-) 8.2/10 Average (CoC: 95% 7.9/10 Average)
Ratatouille - 96% Fresh (138+/6-) 8.5/10 Average (Cream of Crop: 100% 8.5/10 Average)
Monsters, Inc. - 95% Fresh (146+/8-) 7.9/10 Average (CoC: 86% 7.1/10 Average)
A Bug's Life - 92% Fresh (68+/6-) 8.0/10 Average (CoC: 94% 7.6/10 Average)
Cars - 76% Fresh (137+/44-) 6.9/10 Average (CoC: 74% 6.8/10 Average)

[Franz Ferdinand]

...and Transformers drops only 34% from its holiday Wednesday to Thursday. Look out!
I saw it last night: exactly what I expected, nothing more, nothing less.

[Franz Ferdinand]

The numbers for yesterday (July 4) were all good news for all films, including Transformers which now sits at $65.7M after 2.5 days. Ratatouille is showing some great mid-week numbers and will crack $100M by Sunday: this is great news because it needed strong word-of-mouth to get past its disappointing opening weekend.
However, the day off everyone enjoyed for the holiday is gone today, so today's numbers will be the real tell-tale, especially for Transformers: should it fall less than 40% day-to-day, it could be a "juggernaut unfolding". However, I still like its chances to crack $250M and Ratatouille to (heaven willing) do the same. Should Transformers make up to $150 by this Sunday, it could be a revolution in how a blockbuster is opened (in the UK, some big movies are in theaters for some 10 days before their actual "opening weekend").
Forget the three-quels: July is the real month to watch!

[rolotomasi99]

Two words - American Gangster.

yeah, i almost put that on the list, but then i figured it was too intelligent for audiences. i mean, THE DEPARTED was one of the smartest films to ever make more than $100 million, but that was a fluke. i think AMERICAN GANGSTER will be more like THE INSIDE MAN and be close to $100 million without quite passing it. i certainly hope i am wrong, but i just am not sure.

[rolotomasi99]

Ratatouille's posting some very good mid-week numbers and is starting to pull ahead of other pixar films. It may be that word of mouth projects it into the $300 M club.

i certainly hope so. i freaking loved RATATOUILLE. currently, i think the pixar films rank as:
--great--
1) TOY STORY 2
2) FINDING NEMO
3) TOY STORY
4) RATATOUILLE
--good--
5) A BUG'S LIFE
6) THE INCREDIBLES
7) CARS
MONSTERS INC

not a single bad film so far. not since miyazaki has any creative team been so successful.

[jack]

[quote]the big question for me is which prestige film will make it past $100 million. so far only dumb comedies and fx spectacles have been hits. every year at least one quality grown up film makes it into the century club. last year was THE DEPARTED, THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS, and DREAMGIRLS. this year the only possibilities seem to be SWEENEY TOOD and CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR. what other good ones do people think have a shot?
[quote]

Two words - American Gangster.




[edit] sorry for the fucked-up quote above, rolotomasi99.

[OscarGuy]

Ratatouille's posting some very good mid-week numbers and is starting to pull ahead of other pixar films. It may be that word of mouth projects it into the $300 M club.