Box Office - 2007 will be a record year

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MovieWes
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Post by MovieWes »

And within less than 24 hours after Spider-Man 3 broke the opening weekend record, Sony executives have ordered up Spideys 4, 5, and 6. Big surprise there...
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

correction, SPIDER-MAN 3 made $151 million. i say it passes $200 million by wednesday. i doubt SHREK THE THIRD or THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX will be able to beat that opening, but PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 3 may be able to do it.
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Post by MovieWes »

I could see Spider-Man 3 possibly grabbing another $100 million next weekend due to the lack of any new major releases. It could also go into Friday with $200 million already in the bank. If it has $300 million by Monday next week, I think it's possible that Spidey 3 will outgross the original Star Wars and become the second-highest grossing film of all-time domestically (unadjusted for inflation, of course).

Shrek the Third and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End sure have their work cut out for them now. This'll be really, really hard to top.
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Post by OscarGuy »

The current imdb rating number is 7.1 with 18,696 votes.

Spider-Man 2 had 7.8 and the original had 7.4, so I don't see that audiences have found something too much worse than the original, so repeat business should be good.
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Post by criddic3 »

Yeah but ticket prices were also lower a few years ago.
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Post by Franz Ferdinand »

How far can it go? The last couple of years have really re-defined the concept of the superblockbuster opening weekend, as Spidey is now the seventh movie to open north of $100M, a number that only a few years ago seemed unreachable. Even if you only count Spidey 3's first two days, it would make it the third largest opener ever, and the onus is on the upcoming wannabes that want their own piece of history. Pirates 3 will really have its work cut out for it if it wants the record back (I predict with strong feelings that Shrek the Third, Pirates 3, and The Order of the Phoenix will all debut north of $100M).

The question now will be how front-loaded Spider-Man 3 was, considering the terrible (for the franchise) reviews. Can it reach the original's $403M or will it burn out too fast? Either way, terrific start.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

$148 million!!!!! the new record. incredible.

even if the film drops 50% next weekend, that is still around $75 million it will make, plus around $20 to $30 million during the week. so by next weekend it will already have made around $250 million. quite impressive.
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Post by OscarGuy »

But what about Georgia Rule???

It'll probably make $5 M... that'll surely beat Spidey's second week total. ;)




Edited By OscarGuy on 1178391210
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

well, SPIDER-MAN 3 made $59 million in a single day, breaking all records (it made $104 million worldwild in a single day). they are projecting it will make around $135-145 million this weekend in the u.s. alone. i was at an 11:45 pm showing and it was packed. along with the fact that no big movies are opening next weekend, the film will probably pass $250 million by next week sunday. however, then SHREK THE THIRD opens and it will probably beat SPIDER-MAN 3's record, and then PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 3 and then THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX, etc.
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Post by Franz Ferdinand »

I don't think it will break Pirates' recent record, but it will make a good run for it. The 6:30 show I saw today was packed, with a lot of parents taking their kids, and the lines for subsequent shows were massive. I think it will make between $120-$130M - unless word of mouth is bad enough to kill it.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

so SPIDER-MAN 3 opens up on thursday at midnight. from that show until the last show on sunday, i predict the film will make $140 million right out of the gate. what does everyone else think?
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Post by MovieWes »

Here's my 2007 predictions...

1. Spider-Man 3- $430 million
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End- $390 million
3. Shrek the Third- $355 million
4. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix- $295 million
5. Ratatouille- $275 million
6. The Simpsons Movie- $260 million
7. His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass- $215 million
8. 300- $195 million
9. I Am Legend- $185 million
10. The Bourne Ultimatum- $180 million
11. Transformers- $175 million
12. Evan Almighty- $165 million
13. Bee Movie- $160 million
14. Rush Hour 3- $155 million
15. Surf's Up- $155 million
16. American Gangster- $155 million
17. Beowulf- $145 million
18. Knocked Up- $140 million
19. Wild Hogs- $140 million
20. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry- $135 million
21. Ghost Rider- $125 million
22. Ocean's 13- $115 million

Possibilities:

Blades of Glory
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
Fred Claus
Grindhouse
Live Free or Die Hard
Pathfinder
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Post by MovieWes »

Well, Ghost Rider should have a healthy profit when you count the overseas grosses. Still, I'm surprised that it's made as much as it has considering that the character is pretty obscure.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

well, summer has not even started and we are already seeing some blockbusters. kudos to GHOST RIDER, WILD HOGS, and NORBIT for doing much better than i ever thought they would. once again i underestimated the stupidity of u.s. audiences and the crap they will accept as entertainment.
i think GHOST RIDER will finally sputter and die around $120 million, which for a film that cost $110 to make is not much of a profit.
WILD HOGS is going to end up with around $135, and certainly secure us to the doom of a sequel (which will probably bomb...i hope).
NORBIT will get very, very close but will not pass the centennial mark, thank heavens.
as for 300, i am thinking maybe it will get very close to or slightly pass the bicentennial mark. this is the kind of movie that will receive repeat viewings as nothing else good comes along in the next few weeks.

a new film i am adding to the century club is THE GOLDEN COMPASS. i have heard quite a few people hyping this movie. hopefully it lives up to its own buzz.
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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Post by MovieWes »

I believe that Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer is going to bomb. Sure, Fantastic Four made around $150 million, but it wasn't a very well liked movie, especially with the hard-core FF fans. Sequels to crappy movies usually don't do very well, even if its predecessor was a hit. Just look at Elektra, Garfield 2, Scooby-Doo 2, Tomb Raider 2, Miss Congeniality 2, etc., for proof.

I also don't think that Shrek the Third is getting anywhere near $400 million. A lot of people were let down by Shrek 2 (even though it made a ton of money), and I know several people who liked the first and second movies, but decided they didn't want to see the third movie after they saw trailer. I'm betting on around $325-350 million.

One movie you forgot to list is His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass. That's sure to be a pretty big hit (at least $275 million).
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)
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