Box Office - 2007 will be a record year

[rolotomasi99]

well, i originally predicted the big three-quels would each earn $400 million, but now it is very clear none of them are going to pass $350 million. i have also decided with the hype about harry potter building to a fever pitch (i wonder if jk rowling will end the book as ambiguously as the SOPRANOS?), i think THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX will be the number one film of the year with about $350 million.
with TRANSFORMERS set to make around $150 million in its monday to sunday run, it could come very close to joining the $300 million club, but i think will ultimately fall short.
i correctly predicted EVAN ALMIGHTY as a bomb, but then again so did everyone. i am hoping RUSH HOUR 3 will also be a huge loser but that one seems less likely. ia nice christmas present for me would be to see NATIONAL TREASURE 2 fail, but nicholas cage clearly sold his soul to satan to get the grosses of his films up (except NEXT, which even the dark lord could not make a hit).
the big question for me is which prestige film will make it past $100 million. so far only dumb comedies and fx spectacles have been hits. every year at least one quality grown up film makes it into the century club. last year was THE DEPARTED, THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS, and DREAMGIRLS. this year the only possibilities seem to be SWEENEY TOOD and CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR. what other good ones do people think have a shot?
by my calculations and predictions, the top 25 films will make more than $4.5 billion, plus all the other films released this year making up another $5 billion, could still allow this year to make around $9.5 billion. not quite the $10 billion i was originally predicting, but enough to beat the 2004 record of $9.4 billion.

here is my new list of films which will make more than a $100 million:
$350 -- THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX
$336 -- SPIDERMAN 3
$320 -- SHREK THE THIRD
$310 -- PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN
$250 -- TRANSFORMERS
$250 -- RATATOUILLE
$250 -- THE GOLDEN COMPASS
$250 -- THE SIMPSONS
$210 -- 300
$200 -- NATIONAL TREASURE 2
$180 -- I AM LEGEND
$167 -- WILD HOGS
$150 -- THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM
$150 -- KNOCKED UP
$150 -- I KNOW PRONOUNCE YOU CHUCK AND LARRY
$130 -- FANTASTIC FOUR 2
$120 -- OCEAN'S THIRTEEN
$120 -- LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD
$118 -- BLADES OF GLORY
$115 -- GHOST RIDER
$110 -- RUSH HOUR 3
$100 -- SWEENEY TODD
$100 -- CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR

[Sabin]

Well, it's official...

'Evan Almighty' is the first outright disaster of the summer. At a cost of an estimated $200+, the Steve Carell comedy took in a pithy $32 million. 'Bruce Almighty' opened to a slightly more impressive $86 million, whereas Carell's '40 Year Old Virgin' opened to $21 million with an R rating.

'1408' pulled in a strong $20 million, and with a $25 million budget should remain one of the mildest surprises of the summer.

'Fantastic Four 2' dropped 65% this week to third place, the steepest drop this year aside from 'Catch and Release', 'Redline', and of course 'Kickin' It Old School'.

'Knocked Up' crossed the hundie mark with another $10-ish take. It now stands as $109.

The Big 'Pirates' vs. 'Shrek' vs. 'Spidey' battle seems to be nearing the end. 'Spider-Man 3' will end up with around $340 million. 'Pirates 3' is at $290ish and 'Shrek 3' is at $310ish, both winding down. With 'Die Hard 4', 'Ratatouille', and 'Transformers' on the way, it's doubtful that either will be able to overtake 'Spidey'.

[OscarGuy]

You box office nutters who want to have a go:

fantasymoguls.com

I have a UAADB League. Password is UAADB1 (note it is all capital letters)

[rolotomasi99]

Looks like the Pirates are useless and now, Autobots are our only hope to save the box-office.

i sure hope starscream is in the movie. he was always my favorite, probably because i knew he was the gay transformer before i even knew i was gay myself.

[VanHelsing]

Looks like the Pirates are useless and now, Autobots are our only hope to save the box-office.

[rolotomasi99]

plus, with the bigger films you often are directed by ushers to stand in specific lines that lead to the theatre where the film is being show, which is usually in the front of a multiplex; as opposed to a smaller/older film which they put at the back of the multiplex so you can wander on your own and then just duck into the theatre of your choice. believe me, i have plenty of experience from doing this when i was younger.

[rolotomasi99]

But why Wild Hogs? Why not buy a ticket for Shrek or Pirates, in order to sneak an R rated movie?

cause SHREK THE THIRD or PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 3 could possibly be sold out (not every theatre but some theatres). WILD HOGS is a pg-13 film which (i believe) benefited from a close release to 300 to fuel its long haul and is now benefiting from BUG and 28 WEEKS LATER to mysteriously rebound from 17th place to 10th place this weekend. films do not usually make that kind of recovery from being so low on the box office chart after 13 weeks of release and being in less than 500 theatres (unless nominated for an oscar or two). this is particularly strange since the top three films should be drawing away the very audiences that would be going to see something like WILD HOGS.

the only other explanation is WILD HOGS is benefiting from runoff from the top three films. if all of them are sold out, then families who came all the way to the movies may decide to go see WILD HOGS. however, most families that had any desire to see that piece of crap already saw it in the past 13 weeks, so i am not as convinced about that explanation.

i cannot prove my theory to you any more than that. you can think i am wrong, but i say if WILD HOGS is still in the top ten this next weekend when KNOCKED UP is released, or is in the top 15 two weekends from now when HOSTEL 2 is released then i have to be right about all this.

[criddic3]

But why Wild Hogs? Why not buy a ticket for Shrek or Pirates, in order to sneak an R rated movie?

[rolotomasi99]

the big winner this weekend at the box office was actually the film WAITRESS, which though it made only around $3 million was good enough to be number five on the charts. BUG, the only other wide release, barely made more money. considering the film is only on about 500 screens, that is pretty damn good. it had a better per screen average than SPIDER-MAN 3. i do not think it will be an indie hit like THE QUEEN and LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE, but it certainly is nice to see a small, smart film play with the big boys.

ps. how the hell did WILD HOGS rebound from the number 17 spot last week back into the 10th spot this week, despite being on less than 500 screens? this film is the spawn of satan, i swear. some people say it is because young teens are buying tickets for it so that they can go see R-rated movies like 300 and BUG. if it is still in the top spot when when HOSTEL 2 rolls around, we will have confirmation of that theory.

[Franz Ferdinand]

If the Order of the Phoenix can outgross the Philosopher's Stone, it might be entirely foreseeable that it will become the highest grossing movie of the year, especially considering that the much-hyped May Threequels won't gross much more over $350M. It will be quite surprising if, after all the hype and build-up, no movie from this year of behemoth sequels grosses over $400M at the box office...

[OscarGuy]

Weekend Estimates:

POTC3
Fri: $43 M
Sat: $38.2 M
Sun: $31.3 M

Wknd Total: $112.5 M

Not only did it not top Spider-Man 3, it didn't top Dead Man's Chest and it didn't top Shrek the Third or even the original Spider-Man.

Also: Spider-Man 3 limped across the $300 M mark in 24 days, 8 days longer than it took record holder Dead Man's Chest

[rolotomasi99]

so with all these three-quals disappointing at the box office, could the fifth harry potter film come out of nowhere and be the highest grossing film of the year?
the first harry potter film, THE SORCERER'S STONE, was the highest grossing ($317 million), but was a huge let down. that meant many people stayed away for the second one, THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS, grossing only $261 million, even though it was an improvement on the first in terms of quality.
the third, THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN (in most people's opinion the best), was the first to be released in the summer and was still being saddled with the low quality of the first two columbus films, and thus only made $214 million.
however, once people actually saw it, especially on dvd, they realized how kick ass it was and no longer so kiddie. that brought great excitement for number four, THE GOBLET OF FIRE, which grossed $290 million. while not as good as number three, it certainly continued the darker trend of the books and brought more teenagers and young adults to the film series.
the fifth film, THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX, promises to be darker than any of the other films. if people's reaction to the trailer in theatres is any indication, people are excited about this movie. the film will have to deal with being released in summer, but luckily there are no other fx spectacles being released after it until THE GOLDEN COMPASS in december.
i could see the fifth harry potter opening around $100 million, and then just chugging along for awhile until it ends up the highest grossing film. just a thought.

[OscarGuy]

I think the big difference you're seeing is that people loved Spider-Man 2, many called it the best of the series, so expectations were high for the third film (though, we've seen by it's quick fall at the BO that it wasn't nearly as good as everyone was expecting, thus less returning business). With Pirates 2, there were a number of people who were significantly let down and some downright hated the second film. Thus, when the third one comes out, there wasn't a "must see" attitude driving it. The $43 M Friday opening is pretty lowsy and history of the series shows Saturday isn't generally better for the film. That being said, a number of people may wait until later in the Memorial Day weekend to see the film hoping to avoid large audiences at the theater...

[rolotomasi99]

yep, it pretty much looks like SPIDER-MAN 3 is going to hold on to the top spot for awhile.

[Franz Ferdinand]

Pirates' Thursday night gross was knocked down a couple of notches to $14M, and the early numbers have it at a $43M Friday: a (one day? two day?) total of $57M to start its run. Boxofficemojo has the $57M as its one-day gross: it's off to the races!