Box Office - 2007 will be a record year

[Franz Ferdinand]

Profitable and exciting yes, but I would hardly call the slate so far "enjoyable". The threequels have all unanimously been huge let-downs compared to the second installments, and have eroded much faster: Spider-Man 3 will crack $325M tops, while Shrek the Turd won't reach close to $400M with the mid-week grosses it has had so far. I somehow doubt that Pirates will experience the legs Dead Man's Chest enjoyed, let alone the level of the Black Pearl. It will have a monstrous weekend, no doubt, but it will flame out just as fast as the other threequels have. It's a shame about Thursday night gobbling up $17M from its gross, it seems to easily be heading towards the record right now.
Three $100M openers in a single month - when not even a single year has seen as many - is nothing to shake a stick at, of course...

[rolotomasi99]

so early reports for thursday have PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN making $17 million. could we possibly see a weekend around $175 million? that is my prediction. by tuesday the film will definitely pass the $200 million mark, i think.
SPIDERMAN 3, SHREK THE THIRD, and PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 3 will all pass the $300 mark, no problem, but which ones will pass the $400 million mark? right now, i can only see PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN going the distance.
THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX and possibly TRANSFORMERS will enter the $300 million club.
THE SIMPSONS, RATATOUILLE, and THE GOLDEN COMPASS will join 300 in the $200 million club.
a dozen more films will be added to the $100 million club, making this the most profitable year ever for hollywood.
let us hope the oscar line up is as enjoyable.

[Franz Ferdinand]

The weekend estimate from Shrek the Turd is $122M, a fantastic amount that snatches the animated record from the second edition. From the $39M it made on Friday, it bounced 22% to a $47M Saturday: not the massive spike the second one saw, but monetarily it is a higher amount. It is projected to fall only 22% to $36.5M on Sunday. Nevermind the movie is critically slammed: it is "good entertainment" the whole family can look forward to and shell out massive bucks for.
Projecting it to fall 40% next weekend against Captain Jack's onslaught, it would make $73M versus Pirates' $150M and Spidey's $19M for a very lucrative Memorial Day weekend.

[OscarGuy]

It's not going to be Spider-Man 3's record, but Shrek 3 is doing better than the previous film with Friday estimates of $38.1 M. That's $10 M higher than Shrek 2, so if it stays on that course, it may come close to $140 M for the weekend...that's not bad at all. Shrek will make more of its money on Saturday and Sunday than Spider-Man 3 did because of its familial appeal. Shrek 2 made $34 M on Sunday. Spider-Man 3 only made $39 M on Sunday, so it's quite possible that if Saturday numbers are higher than I'm expecting it could actually break SM3's record, but I'm doubtful...we'll see, though it's shaping up to be an interesting summer.

[rolotomasi99]

it will be interesting to see how big the memorial day weekend overall boxoffice will be. with PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 3, SHREK THE THIRD, and SPIDER-MAN 3 all in play (plus the hundred or so other films currently running) could it be possible to have the weekend boxoffice pass $300 million? difficult, i am sure, but this seems like the one weekend to do it. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 3 making $150 million or more, SHREK THE THIRD easing 50% to make about $60 million or so, and SPIDER-MAN 3 coming in around $15 million, that would mean every other film would have to pull in a combined $75 million. yeah, probably will not happen, but it could be close. around $250 million is more likely.

[rolotomasi99]

Any guesses on Shrek the Third's opening weekend performance?

something below $120 million sounds right for SHREK THE THIRD. considering MEET THE ROBINSONS has almost passed the $100 million mark, i would say there is a great deal of demand for family films.

i am not so sure about SPIDER-MAN 3 being the number one film this year. it may just end up being PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 3 like everyone predicts. it would be fascinating for THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX to come out of nowhere and steal the top spot from everyone.

having just seen the most recent TRANSFORMERS trailer, i am confident the film will pass $200 million and be the fifth highest grosser of the year after the aforementioned films.

[Franz Ferdinand]

Any guesses on Shrek the Third's opening weekend performance? Will it beat Shrek 2's lofty $108M? I will wager an opening of $117M and sturdy family legs, despite the critics all crying "sell-out". It will become the second-highest grossing movie released this May, as I have little doubt about Jack Sparrow's commercial viability. However, I think the gap between the two will be narrower than people would expect:
- Shrek the Third is a beloved family franchise coming three years after the previous installment;
- while Pirates last set sail 10 months ago: not a whole lot of time to create pent-up demand in a sequel.

[Franz Ferdinand]

It might set another dubious record this weekend: highest amount of business lost in its second weekend. Dead Man's Chest went from $135.6M to $62.3M - a difference of $73.3M. Even if Spidey recovered over the weekend (something it should do based on the enormous front-loading that last Friday carried), it will still see a difference of about $90M between weekends.
And with Shrek the Turd about to swoop in on valuable family moviegoers, Spidey might not even reach the second one's $373M over time. Dubious for the opening weekend record-setter.

[OscarGuy]

If Friday's estimates hold (though they won't and will probably go up since last weekend's did), Spider-Man 3 will have failed to even tie the record for fastest to $200M

According to BOMOJO, it took $17.8 M on Friday to bring its 8-day total to $199.871 M. Now, it's quite likely that even if the numbers don't change much that Sony will try its best to fudge the numbers up the $.2 M that it's short just to make the record.

It's off the first film's second Friday numbers by about $2 M but well above its predecessor's $13.8 M. However, the true test will be what the weekend holds. Its competition is so staggeringly far behind that it should still make a solid chunk of change.

[VanHelsing]

Get ready for Pirates 3 to break Spidey 3's record in a couple of weeks.

[OscarGuy]

3 films, Franz. POTC2, Spider-Man 2 and Revenge of the Sith made it in 8 days.

[rolotomasi99]

Rolo, I don't know where you got those numbers, but the number I saw: $10,285,268 and that's confirmed with Exhibitor Relations.

my mistake. box office mojo had a link to the top monday takes, and SPIDER-MAN 2 was at the top of the list with $27 million. yeah, $10 million is not very impressive at all. although, SPIDER-MAN 2 made its amount in july, and school is still in session so less ability for teens to fill the theatres. now i am thinking SPIDER-MAN 3 will not beat PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2's record of fastest to pass $200 million. oh well.

[Franz Ferdinand]

That's right OG. They dearly wish they made $27M yesterday! And let's not forget that the $10.3M it made on Monday trails the original Spider-Man's $11M Monday - from five years ago. It also trails other May blockbusters Star Wars Episode II ($10.7M) and Episode III ($14.7M) - both were released on Thursday later in the month.

This isn't bad news for Spider-Man: it reaches $161M, and would be on track to make roughly $185M at the end of its first week, something you can't shake a stick at. However, the $200M mark will remain at eight days for now: that seems to be the real benchmark that blockbusters will try to strive for now that two movies have reached $100M within two days, yet none of the "sure shots" (POTC: Dead Man's Chest, Spider-Man 2, Episode III) in less than eight.

As for the total gross, right now I'm thinking it will burn very brightly, but also very quickly - perhaps because I was not much impressed with it. Next week, even it loses 50% of its business (I predict it will be reduced 57% to $65.3M), it will still be at the quarter million mark, then take a big hit when the abysmal-looking Shrek the Third hits theaters for all the families, and Pirates slices them both the week following. It will stagger to Spider-Man 2's $373M, but fall short of the original's $403M. I still think Shrek and Captain Jack are the ones to beat this summer.

[OscarGuy]

Rolo, I don't know where you got those numbers, but the number I saw: $10,285,268 and that's confirmed with Exhibitor Relations.

[rolotomasi99]

well, SPIDER-MAN 3 just made $27 million on monday, so i am going to say it will pass $200 million just by what it makes today (tuesday). it took PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2 all of 8 days to pass the bicentennial mark, but SPIDER-MAN 3 will do it in 5 days. amazing!