Sleeper Hit?

Post Reply
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Post by rolotomasi99 »

Sonic Youth wrote:
rolotomasi99 wrote:if KNOCKED UP makes more than $100 million it will be a surprise to me. not because no one told me it was going to happen, but because i cannot comprehend how anyone could enjoy a movie that looks so stupid.

Behold the rave reviews!

And I called this forty-five days before Entertainment Tonight did.
well, i could not even sit through the stupidity that was THE 40 YEAR OLD VIRGIN, so if all the reviews are saying this film is on the same level then i guess i will sit this one out too.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Post by rolotomasi99 »

just rewatched the trailer for DIE HARD 4, and while the action pieces look quite incredible (particularly the "kill a helicopter with a car" scene) that is not enough to get people to see your movie. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3 had incredible action scenes but a less than compelling storyline and characters.
bruce willis is too old and his new sidekick justin long is too dorky to lead an action film.
plus, what makes the original DIE HARD better than just a regular action film was having one of the best movie villains. no one can top alan rickman as hans gruber in terms of delicious scenary chewing. timothy olyphant is no substitute, and will not be enough to propel this film.

as for RUSH HOUR 3, the teaser alone is enough to make me sure this one will bomb. jackie chan and chris tucker singing "lady marmalade" makes me think of deniro singing i feel pretty in ANALYZE THAT. i think people are tired of the duo, or at least i hope so.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
User avatar
Sonic Youth
Tenured Laureate
Posts: 8003
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 8:35 pm
Location: USA

Post by Sonic Youth »

rolotomasi99 wrote:if KNOCKED UP makes more than $100 million it will be a surprise to me. not because no one told me it was going to happen, but because i cannot comprehend how anyone could enjoy a movie that looks so stupid.

Behold the rave reviews!

And I called this forty-five days before Entertainment Tonight did.
"What the hell?"
Win Butler
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Post by rolotomasi99 »

i thought this little item on imdb fit in well to our discussion.



'Die Hard' Buzz Hard To Believe

Suggesting that it is sometimes difficult to sort the buzz from the hype, the Hollywood Reporter was being castigated by numerous film-related websites Monday for a report suggesting that the upcoming Live Free or Die Hard could be "the sleeper hit of the season." The trade publication cited research by Nielsen BuzzMetrics, which measures Internet discussions of upcoming films, noting that the film had received nearly twice as many mentions on blogs as Spider-Man 3 and dwarfed those for Shrek the Third and the latest Pirates of the Caribbean sequel. On Monday, however, several blogs noted, that much of the buzz about the June 27 release of Live Free or Die Hard was negative and that other blogs suggested that the Pirates sequel is the most anticipated movie of the summer. Movie buzz reports have been notoriously dicey this year, particularly in the recent case of Grindhouse, the Quentin Tarantino/Robert Rodriguez film that produced a ton of Internet chatter but tanked at the box office. None of that has discouraged the Nielsen company, which announced today (Tuesday) that it is acquiring the 42 percent of BuzzMetrics that it does not already own (for a reported $100 million) and plans to combine the company with Nielsen-NetRatings. Nielsen also owns the Hollywood Reporter.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 13668
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Post by OscarGuy »

Disturbia's a good qualifier and Bridge to Terabithia chugged past $80 M which is more than I expected.

For the Summer, I don't know. I'd have to look over the releases to see if anything jumps out. I'm expecting that Knocked Up might actually be a dud like so many other similarly-scripted films this summer (like Superbad).

As for big bombs: Transformers (though we've already had a couple of mega bombs: Next and Grindhouse) I feel might pull a Godzilla or Hulk and perform disappointingly at the box office despite big word of mouth. I think Fantastic Four could easily bomb in such stiff competition...I think Rush Hour 3 is more likely to crash and burn than Die Hard 4, but both, I agree, may be "too much".
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Post by rolotomasi99 »

if KNOCKED UP makes more than $100 million it will be a surprise to me. not because no one told me it was going to happen, but because i cannot comprehend how anyone could enjoy a movie that looks so stupid.

i have been having bad luck so far with predicting the sleep hit of 2007. i kept thinking it would be a movie similar to BORAT. first i thought RENO 911, but then that bombed. then i thought AQUA TEEN HUNGER FORCE, but then that really bombed (no pun intended, considering their adverstising fiasco).

300 right now counts as the only real sleeper. sure people thought it would be successful, but no one predicted that big of an opening or for it to pass $200 million. it definitely bypassed the regular advertising avenues in favor of the up and coming avenue of myspace.

if DISTURBIA passes a $100 million, it will definitely be a sleeper. it made twice as much on its opening weekend as anyone thought and stayed number one for three weekends. i doubt it will pass the century mark since it is only halfway there and summer is about to start.

i honestly cannot figure which film might be a sleeper (which i guess is like trying to predict the lottery). THE NANNY DIARIES might be the surprise comedy of the year, but laura linney (as much as i love her) is no meryl streep. MR. BEAN'S HOLIDAY may be doing well around the world, but rowan atkinson has never translated well in the u.s. maybe THE MIST, but darabont is no shyamalan. i would love to say SUNSHINE, but as CHILDREN OF MEN proved smart sci-fi rarely does well.

i wonder which drama will do well this year. 2006 saw THE DEPARTED and even more surprisingly THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS beat out high profile films like MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3 and SCARY MOVIE 4. could it be CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR, or LIONS FOR LAMBS, or maybe RENDITION. i predict SWEENEY TODD will do really well, certainly better than DREAMGIRLS.

i think the more fun prediction is which big film will bomb at the box office. i think it will be sequels no one is really looking forward to, like DIE HARD 4 and RUSH HOUR 3. i think they will pass the century mark, but barely, which considering their budgets does not equal success.

i would love to hear what other people think. this is your thread, oscarguy. what do you think will be the sleeper?
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 13668
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Post by OscarGuy »

I was watching ET last night and they said something that just seemed ludicrous. They proclaimed Knocked Up to be the sleeper hit of the summer.

How can a film be a sleeper hit if everyone's predicting success? A sleeper is a film no one saw coming that suddenly does boffo box office. The simple fact that ET is advertising it means that it's a marketing bonanza and couldn't possibly qualify as a sleeper. If it had been someone on this board predicting it to be a sleeper, I don't think I'd object, but come on....

Anyone have any predictions as to what the actual sleeper hit will be? or can there be one if we see it coming?
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Post Reply

Return to “2000 - 2007”