Predicting Box-Office - what will be the top moneymakers of 2006

[VanHelsing]

I hope The Break-up flops for I don't see any point of watching a romantic comedy if it's not romantic at all. That is like cheating the audience.

As for Click, I'm looking forward to it NOT because I'm an Adam Sandler-loving loser but because I'm a Kate Beckinsale fanatic LOL!

And for the record, I think X-Men: The Last Stand will make more money than The Da Vinci Code this summer.

[rolotomasi99]

these predictions of mine do not seem right. last year one film ("revenge of the sith") passed the $300 million mark (almost making it to $400 million). i think "pirates of the caribbean 2" will make close to that. however, last year 8 of the top ten films made more than $200 million. this year i can only think of five that will make that much. surprisingly, films like "ice age 2" and "mission impossible 3," both of which looked like they would easily pass that mark failed to do so (though "ice age 2" was close). "poseidon" severely failed, since it will not even pass $50 million (let us hope that will stop them from remaking "the towering inferno").
last year 19 films passed the century mark ($100 million), but this year i can barely think of 15 that will accomplish that. pretty much everything this year has been underperforming or meeting expectations. the only movies that made more than everyone was predicting were "madea's family reunion" and "the inside man," but both still were under the century mark. i see "superman returns" being the only film to even remotely challenge "pirates of the caribbean 2" for the top spot, but will have to settle for number 2. i also think it is the only other film that could possibly pass $300 million, just barely. "the da vinci code," "cars," and "x-men 3" will all duke it out for 3rd, 4th, and 5th place. after that i cannot figure out what is going to pass $200 million. if "ice age 2" and "mission impossible 3" could not do it, what else could?

if we break down the predictions by genre maybe we can see a better pattern:

--comedy
THE BREAK-UP = $150-100 (same target audience as "wedding crashers," "hitch")
CLICK = $150-100 ("the longest yard," "fun with dick and jane")
interesting to note the lack of big comedies this year. there were five non-family, non-action comedies in the top 20 last year. i can only think of two possible big ones, and none of them look ready to pass $150. "the break-up" will get the audience that no longer wants their romantic comedies to be too romantic. "click" will draw out the usual adam sandler-loving losers.

--action
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN = $375-350 ("the goblet of fire," "the lion, the witch, and the wardrobe")
SUPERMAN RETURNS = $300-275 ("batman begins," "king kong")
X-MEN 3 = $250-225 ("batman begins," "king kong")
MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3 = $150 ("war of the worlds," "mr. & mrs. smith")
MIAMI VICE = $150-125 ("batman begins," "mr. & mrs. smith")
CASINO ROYALE = $150-125 ("batman begins," "mr. & mrs. smith")
6 big action films this year versus 8 last year. will people go back to the james bond series without pierce brosnan? will the grittier action style of "miami vice" attract a bigger audience than the more popcorn "mission impossible"? i think "superman returns" will break out of its comic book genre (unlike "x-men" 3) and be able to attract an audience just looking for a good story and interesting characters (much like the spider-man films did). of course, "pirates of the caribbean" will blow them all out of the water. kids, teens, and adults will all like this film equally, and faces no serious competition after its release.

--family
CARS = $275-250 ("madagascar," "robots")
ICE AGE 2 = $190 ("madagascar," "robots")
HAPPY FEET = $175-150 ("madagascar," "robots")
CHARLOTTE'S WEB = $175-150 ("charlie and the chocolate factory," "madagascar")
THE SANTA CLAUSE 3 = $125-100 ("charlie and the chocolate factory," "the pacifier")
GARFIELD 2 = $125-100 ("madagascar," "robots")
MONSTER HOUSE = $100 ("madagascar," "robots")
this is where 2006 has 2005 beat. 7 family films versus the 5 last year (not counting the big action ones like "the goblet of fire" and "the lion, the witch, and the wardrobe"). there are at least half a dozen more, but these i think will be the major contenders. pixar will continue to work its magic (even if "cars" does not look to be in the league of "toy story" or "finding nemo"). again "ice age 2" underperformed, but i expect "happy feet" to surprise everyone and seems to be the only other family film to possibly pass $200 million. i remember how excited people seemed to get when they saw the preview at "the goblet of fire" a year ago, and it looks so darned cute without being cutesy. hopefully "charlotte's web" will not suck and will do o.k. hopefully this will be the last "santa clause" and "garfield" sequels we will have to deal with. "monster house" will round out the rest. "over the hedge," "open season." and "barnyard" will get close but not pass the century mark.

--thriller
THE DA VINCI CODE = $275-250 ("flightplan")
LADY IN THE WATER = $150-125 ("flightplan")
"the da vinci code" will play well as alternative programing for people that do not want to see comic book or animated films. it will be considered the thinking person's popcorn film (though not by me) and enjoy good word of mouth throughout the summer. despite the inexplicable hatred felt toward "the village," i think shyamalan (who should have directed "the da vinci code") still knows how to weave a well told story. people will go to see "lady in the water," but it will take some good reviews and good word of mouth.

--drama
WORLD TRADE CENTER = $150-125 ("walk the line")
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS = $100 ("walk the line")
i see these two as the only truly adult oriented films that could possibly pass the century mark. i think the success of "united 93" -- considering the small budget, alternative the filmmaking style, preceded by a t.v. version, and absolutely no stars -- shows that people are not going to avoid a film simply because it is about 9/11. "world trade center" looks like it is going to be the most mainstream and schmaltzy work of oliver stone's career. i am not particularly excited, but i think if "united 93" can make $30 million, with good reviews and word of mouth "world trade center" can pass $100 million. "flags of our fathers" also seems the only other serious film that can draw a large crowd (since we all know intelligent films rarely do well). i think if it becomes a frontrunner for the oscars (which i am already predicting it will) there are still enough people alive that will remember this event. i am still not convinced that "dreamgirls" is going to be a hit. i think reports of the resurrection of the musical genre were greatly over exaggerated. i could be wrong, but i doubt it.


top 20 from last year:

1 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
$380,270,577

2 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
$291,710,957

3 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
$290,013,036

4 War of the Worlds
$234,280,354

5 King Kong
$218,080,025

6 Wedding Crashers
$209,255,921

7 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
$206,459,076

8 Batman Begins
$205,343,774

9 Madagascar
$193,595,521

10 Mr. & Mrs. Smith
$186,336,279

11 Hitch
$179,495,555

12 The Longest Yard
$158,119,460

13 Fantastic Four
$154,696,080

14 Chicken Little
$135,386,665

15 Robots
$128,200,012

16 Walk the Line
$119,519,402

17 The Pacifier
$113,086,868

18 Fun with Dick and Jane
$110,332,737

19 The 40-Year-Old Virgin
$109,449,237

20 Flightplan
$89,707,299

[rolotomasi99]

o.k., so i was way off about "poseidon." looks like it will not even pass $50 million. "mission impossible 3" is not going to pass $150 million. however, looks like i could be right about "x-men 3" and "the da vinci code." they are both definitely hits. where they fall at the end of the year is still not certain, though i suspect they will at least make it to top 5.

most recent prdeix
1. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2 -- $350-325
2. SUPERMAN RETURNS -- $275-250
3. THE DA VINCI CODE -- $250-225
4. CARS -- $250-225
5. X-MEN 3 -- $250-225
6. ICE AGE 2 -- $190
7. HAPPY FEET -- $175-150
8. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3 -- $150
9. MIAMI VICE -- $125-100
10. LADY IN THE WATER -- $125-100

others that will pass the century mark: CASINO ROYALE, THE BREAK-UP, CLICK, CHARLOTTE'S WEB

second predix
1. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2 -- $350-325
2. THE DA VINCI CODE -- $275-250
3. CARS -- $250-225
4. SUPERMAN RETURNS -- $250-225
5. X-MEN 3 -- $250-225
6. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3 -- $225-200
7. ICE AGE 2 -- $200-190
8. HAPPY FEET -- $150-125
9. POSEIDON -- $150-125
10. MIAMI VICE -- $100-125

first predix
1. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2 -- $400-375
2. THE DA VINCI CODE -- $350-325
3. CARS -- $275-250
4. SUPERMAN RETURNS -- $275-250
5. ICE AGE 2 -- $250-225
7. X-MEN 3 -- $250-225
6. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3 -- $250-225
8. MIAMI VICE -- $200-175
9. POSEIDON -- $200-175
10. HAPPY FEET -- $175-150

[VanHelsing]

I've seen X-Men: The Last Stand and I must say, it's definitely a worthwhile popcorn summer flick. Obviously some characters are not fully developed but if you expect them to be, then the film would have to be 5 hours long or so. As long as the usual leading characters are developed, the film should do fine.

There's plenty of action even right from the start. There's a sequence in the trailer which I thought would be at the end of the film but turns out that it's the scene which opens the film in kind of a big way. Many GFBs would be clapping their hands upon seeing it cause I believe they have been waiting for it eversince Bryan Singer shot X-Men: United.

To me, Brett Ratner didn't screw the 3rd film in the trilogy. Well at least, those "Rush Hour" humour which I expected to be in this film didn't turn up because such humour would totally be out of place in a film like X-Men.

Last but not least, I'm confident that it will open with more than 100 million over the 4-day holiday weekend.

Oh yeah, before I forget, do stay after the credits for one extra special scene which does help to end the film in a good way.

[Franz Ferdinand]

It will be interesting to note that should X-Men: The Last Stand open to at least $70M (which is highly likely), it will be the first time an actor with a sizable supporting role has appeared in consecutive $70M openers. The man? Sir Ian McKellen, who has quietly amassed a long list of blockbusters. Da Vinci Code and X3 are potentially his fifth and sixth $200M+ grossers as well.
Early reviews at Rotten Tomatoes put X-Men at 50% as of this writing, mostly complaining about Brett Ratner's lack of Bryan Singer's style and character development. Uh-oh...

[VanHelsing]

with its 70+ million opening, it might even be safe to say that Da Vinci will cross the 200 million mark... but like you said, kaytodd, a big dropoff in its 2nd week's box-office numbers is to be expected since X-Men 3 is opening next week...

anyways, still hoping and praying that The Lake House will be this year's summer sleeper hit... lol...

[kaytodd]

Looks like I was dead wrong in my prediction for Da Vinci Code's box office. A 77 million dollar opening weekend is outstanding for any film. I was correct in predicting the bad reviews but they did not keep the crowds away. I guess a lot of people just want to see it. I am not surprised. The fact that the film was opening this weekend was a widely reported regular news story. And I cannot believe the number of Da Vinci Code related documentaries that are running on several different cable networks. At almost any given moment, 24/7, you can go to your program guide TV channel and find at least two such documentaries. I noticed a new one today: Da Vinci And The Code He Lived By. I saw a few minutes of it and it appears to be a standard documentary about Leonardo Da Vinci's life that could have been done long before the novel was written. It is obvious why that particular title was chosen. It has been difficult to avoid this film for the last several months.

I have not seen it but several friends and family members have. All of them said basically the same thing: very good technically but boring. Not especially good but not especially bad. Just OK. Nobody expressed any strong feelings about it positively or negatively. Standard middlebrow Hollywood Product.

There will be a big dropoff in B.O. starting next week but not enough to keep it below the 125 million ceiling I predicted. Does not appear the word of mouth will be bad enough to kill the B.O. I think VanHelsing is right that the film will easily pass 150 million.

[VanHelsing]

125 million is my prediction, at the very most.

imo, that's way too low...

i feel that Da Vinci will make at least 150 mil...

[kaytodd]

I was optimistic about Cinderella Man in the weeks leading up to its release, both for the quality of the film and its box office (I saw it on DVD again a few weeks ago and I stand by my favorable review. One of my top ten 2005 releases.). I was dead wrong about its box office. Well Ron and Tom better hope I continue to be a poor prognosticator about Ron's films, for I see BOMB written all over the Da Vinci Code.

I read the book and thought it was OK. Interesting concept. And it strikes me as a complicated film screenplay IF you are going to actually tell the full story. I keep thinking of the mess Howard and Goldsman made of John Nash's wonderful lfe story in ABM. They decided to ditch it and come up with an almost totally original story that was not nearly as entertaining or interesting as the real story.

This film is being released almost exactly a year after Cinderella Man. I do not know when Goldsman started work on the screenplay, but I understand principal shooting did not begin until summer 2005. I was very surprised when I heard it was going to be a May 2006 release. My guess is that Howard and Goldsman decided to "dumb down" the story and give only snippets of the intriguing theological, philosophical and moral issues raised by Dan Brown's novel (not that Brown explored this issues with any depth. It was just a very good read.). It will be Hanks and Tatou being chased by an albino through various beautiful Euopean cities.

BTW, Hanks and Tatou would not have been my first choices for the leads, but they are good actors I like very much. I do not think that will be a problem.

I forsee terrible reviews and resulting disappointing box office performance. It will make money but not be a blockbuster. 125 million is my prediction, at the very most. And that will be only because of the popularity and controversy of the novel and its subject matter. Also, several cable TV networks have been doing a lot of publicity work for the film for months.

Is there a website where there are reports on any screenings? If there is anything on Rotten Tomatoes I missed it.

[rolotomasi99]

well, it appears that i got the first film to be released on my top ten box office predix wrong. despite an impressive opening, it appears that "ice age 2" will barely be able to inch past $200 mil. that is $25-50 mil less than i predicted.

original predix
1. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2 -- $400-375
2. THE DA VINCI CODE -- $350-325
3. CARS -- $275-250
4. SUPERMAN RETURNS -- $275-250
5. ICE AGE 2 -- $250-225
7. X-MEN 3 -- $250-225
6. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3 -- $250-225
8. MIAMI VICE -- $200-175
9. POSEIDON -- $200-175
10. HAPPY FEET -- $175-150

revised predix
1. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2 -- $350-325
2. THE DA VINCI CODE -- $275-250
3. CARS -- $250-225
4. SUPERMAN RETURNS -- $250-225
5. X-MEN 3 -- $250-225
6. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3 -- $225-200
7. ICE AGE 2 -- $200-190
8. HAPPY FEET -- $150-125
9. POSEIDON -- $150-125
10. MIAMI VICE -- $100-125

[OscarGuy]

I'm not really going to siphon through the releases for this, but for the record, I think MovieWes' predictions are the best...at least down through Casino Royale. After that, I think the predictions will either be quite a bit higher (such as for World Trade Center and Apocalypto if they are remotely good) and quite a bit lower (such as for Nacho Libre and The Ant Bully if their reviews are remotely bad, which is likely).

[VanHelsing]

i believe Warner Independent is only releasing A Scanner Darkly to selected markets... so i doubt it can make a huge impact at the box-office with its limited release... i would say max 50mil...

as for V For Vendetta, after its series of scathing reviews as well as its pro-terrorism subject (correct me if i'm wrong), i'm no longer confident it could crack the 100mil mark...

[MovieWes]

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest- $350-380 million
2. Superman Returns- $315-340 million
3. Cars- $275-290 million
4. The Da Vinci Code- $260-280 million
5. Over the Hedge- $230-245 million
6. X-Men: The Last Stand- $205-215 million
7. Eragon- $185-200 million
8. Ice Age 2: The Meltdown- $175-185 million
9. Poseidon- $165-180 million
10. Mission: Impossible III- $160-185 million
11. Lady in the Water- $160-175 million
12. Monster House- $160-170 million
13. Casino Royale- $155-170 million
14. Click- $150-160 million
15. World Trade Center- $145-155 million
16. The Ant Bully- $145-150 million
17. Apocalypto- $140-155 million
18. Happy Feet- $135-145 million
19. Nacho Libre- $130-140 million
20. V for Vendetta- $125-130 million
21. Evan Almighty- $120-130 million
23. The Santa Claus 3- $120-125 million
24. Miami Vice- $115-125 million
25. The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift- $105-115 million
26. Open Season- $100-110 million

My prediction for the possible big "sleeper" hit of the year: A Scanner Darkly directed by Richard Linklater.

[VanHelsing]

and my picks for films that are highly likely to cross the 100mil mark are...

Spring
Ice Age 2: The Meltdown [175-200]
Scary Movie 4 [100-125]
The Wild [100-125]
Total: 3

Summer
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest [275-300]
The Da Vinci Code [250-275]
Mission: Impossible 3 [225-250]
Cars [200-225]
Superman Returns [200-225]
X-Men 3 [200-225]
Over the Hedge [175-200]
Poseidon [175-200]
The Ant Bully [150-175]
Lady in the Water [150-175]
Monster House [150-175]
Miami Vice [125-150]
Click [100-125]
The Fast and the Furious 3: Tokyo Drift [100-125]
Total: 14

Fall
Happy Feet [175-200]
Charlotte's Web [150-175]
Eragon [150-175]
Casino Royale [125-150]
Meet the Robinsons [125-150]
The Santa Clause 3 [125-150]
Barnyard [100-125]
Dreamgirls [100-125]
Evan Almighty [100-125]
Night at the Museum [100-125]
Open Season [100-125]
Superhero! [100-125]
Total: 12

----------

keeping my fingers crossed that The Lake House can make it to the above list as well but highly unlikely... at the very least, i'm hoping that it'll will do as well as The Notebook's box-office gross...

[VanHelsing]

too high for Miami Vice, i think... max 150mil would be more likely... i feel that Over The Hedge or Eragon would be a better bet...