Predicting Box-Office - what will be the top moneymakers of 2006

[rolotomasi99]

wow, it looks like i predicted even better than the professionals. they thought "x-men" would still be number one and "the break-up" would make around $30-25 million. not that i am happy that awful movie made $38 million and will probably go on to make $150 million.
i am surprised that "over the hedge" was able to surpass "the da vinci code," however it makes sense since all the adults that were going to "the da vinci code" went to "the break-up" while all the kiddies went to "over the hedge" for the fifth time. it is going to lose major audiences when "cars" comes out next weekend. "the da vinci code" may actual be able to surpass it.
it will be interesting to see what happens the week after that with four major releases in one weekend: "the fast and the furious 3," "garfield 2," "the lake house," and "nacho libre."
i was happy to see "an inconvenient truth" at number 9 with $1.3 million from only 77 theatres. it has made almost $2 million in just two weeks in a limited number of theatres.


1 The Break-Up
$38,053,000

2 X-Men: The Last Stand
$34,350,000
$175, 681,000

3 Over the Hedge
$20,647,000
$112,357,000

4 The Da Vinci Code
$19,300,000
$172,656,000

5 Mission: Impossible III
$4,679,000
$122,664,000

6 Poseidon
$3,411,000
$51,679,000

7 RV
$3,300,000
$61,806,000

8 See No Evil
$2,000,000
$12,364,000

9 An Inconvenient Truth
$1,332,000
$1,912,000

10 Just My Luck
$825,000
$15,571,000

[VanHelsing]

no doubt x-men would be no.1 again this weekend.
max 30 million for break-up's opening.

[Penelope]

Really? I wouldn't be surprised if X-Men 3 were #1 for a second weekend (at, say $33 million) and The Break-Up, which looks truly dreadful, stalls out at #2 with just $20 million.

[rolotomasi99]

i am predicting a $40-35 million opening for "the breakup." i think it will easily pass $100 million and end up with about $150 million.
it is so sad what passes for romantic comedies these days.

[VanHelsing]

I think An Inconvenient Truth can repeat the success of March Of The Penguins this year as Paramount Classics expand the film further throughout June.

I agree with your Hedge & X-Men numbers but for Da Vinci, I think the max it could make is 250 million. Not that it matters actually, since it has already made close to half a billion worldwide. Amazing!

Besides X-Men & Da Vinci, I think the only other 200+ million films this summer would be Cars, Superman & Pirates.

So these five films would make up this summer's TOP 5.

The other two films which I feel have an outside chance of hitting the 200 million mark would be You, Me & Dupree (if it follows the path of Wedding Crashers) and Lady In The Water (if she follows the Signs and not get stuck in The Village). :p

[rolotomasi99]

getting this thread back on topic:

looks like "over the hedge" is going to make between $150-125 million.

"x-men 3" is going to easily make $275-250 million.

"the da vinci code" is going to take a little longer but is also going to make $275-250 million.

interesting side note. "an inconvenient truth" made $282,000 from 4 theatres. that is a per-screen average of $70,500 (the 24 highest average ever). i am not saying it is going to be a blockbuster, but we may have found our frontrunner for oscar documentary.

[rolotomasi99]

jeanene garofalo and vince vaughn, now those two are equally attractive. jeanene and brad, not equal. vince and jennifer, not equal. was that not the entire plot of "the truth about cats and dog"? the question of whether a guy would pick brains (garofalo) over beauty (uma thurman). ultimately the movie concludes there is one guy out there that would, but it admits most guys would not. now if both women were equally beautiful, then they may go with brains; but no man is going to forgo being with a beautiful woman just because a less attractive or *gasp* age appropriate woman is funny and charming and sweet. just ask harrison ford's wife of 30+ years what she thinks about being dumped for calista flockhart (what is it with women needing to indulge in these grandpa fantasies???).
sorry for taking my own post a little off course, but i just have always wondered why women are so quick to compromise their standards by being with a guy because he is funny and charming even though he is less attractive or older. there are plenty of funny, charming, and beautiful women. why can you not find those three qualities in a guy? are all beautiful guys assholes? i think secretly women just want to be more attractive than the man their with because it gives them some sort of power or security. again, it must be a hetero thing because gay guys are all about looks. personality is important too, but you do not see a really hot guy with a really ulgly or older guy unless the latter has tons of money.

[VanHelsing]

I don't like BOTH Brad & Vince.

Unfortunately, X-Men didn't get to beat Spidey's record. Heck, it didn't even beat Shrek's record. But it did beat Lost World's Memorial Holiday weekend.

With an estimated 107 million 3-day weekend opening, look forward to X-Men cracking the 250 million barrier. Or worst case scenario, 220 million shouldn't be out of the question.

[OscarGuy]

I know plenty of guys who find Jeanene Garofalo sexy and it's because she's drole. She's certainly not "sexy".

[Penelope]

i think it is very interesting, penelope, that in your defense of vince vaughn's sexiness over brad pitt you describe vince as "funny" and "charming" and brad as "smarmy" and "arrogant." correct me if i am wrong, but are those not adjectives that describe someone's personality and not their looks?

Oh, I'm sorry, but Vince's screen charisma--a funny, charming, slightly manic, flawed, incorrigible doofus--is as much a part of his attraction as, yes, to me, his physical appeal; Brad Pitt is beautiful, but he doesn't turn me on in the least--to be honest, I've never understood his appeal. Let's just say that somebody like Vince is more my type than somebody like Brad.

[Damien]

Excuse me, but Vince Vaughn is sex on a stick, as far as I'm concerned. Going from smarmy, arrogant Brad Pitt to funny, charming, sexy Vince is trading up!

Ewwwwwww . . . I'd take Eugene Pallette or Guy Kibbee over Vince Vaughn.

[rolotomasi99]

i think it is very interesting, penelope, that in your defense of vince vaughn's sexiness over brad pitt you describe vince as "funny" and "charming" and brad as "smarmy" and "arrogant." correct me if i am wrong, but are those not adjectives that describe someone's personality and not their looks?
i do not know brad pitt, jennifer aniston, or vince vaughn personally; but i do know what they look like and brad pitt is one of the most attractive guys out there and vince vaughn is very odd looking. jennifer aniston is also quite beautiful, though not as gorgeous as angelina jolie. say what you want about their personalities, but i know sexy when i see it.
i guess seeing jennifer with vince is better than having to see her with kevin costner (oh look, she has the hots for her grandfather). uggh!

maybe it is some sort of heterosexual thing that i just do not get. why do beautiful women always end up with unattractive men?
"casablanca," "annie hall," "as good as it gets," "the piano," "when harry met sally," "the horse whisperer," etc. all of these are considered romantic films, and yet they all involve less attractive men (often older) with far more attractive women. you never see it the other way around. even in "the graduate," which is supposed to be the flip side of all those older-men-younger-women movies, the actress is only six years older than the actor. i know the characters were supposed to have a 20 year difference, but the audience could only accept the romance if it did not look like a 20 year difference. plus, in the end he winds up with the more age appropriate character.

humphrey bogart, jack nicholson, sean connery, tom hanks, et al. are not attractive men. they are "funny" and "charming" as penelope said, and somehow that transforms them into physically attractive men.
name a single women who is considered sexy because she is funny. there are plenty of women who are sexy and funny, but not one in mainstream hollywood who is sexy because she is funny.

that is why people flocked (relatively speaking) to "brokeback mountain." finally a romantic film where both people were equally attractive. i may prefer jake gyllenhaal to heath ledger, but objectively i can say they are equally attractive.

sorry about getting up on my high horse, but i am just sick of how unfair it is for women in hollywood. i have no problem with watching hetero romantic comedy/dramas, but please pair the ladies up with an equally attractive man (the "notebook," now that was an equally hot pairing). i just do not understand why women do not boycott films that have beautiful, younger women with plain or unattractive, older men. demand a little beauty equity among male and female actors.

[Penelope]

i hope "the break-up" bombs because i cannot stand dumb comedies period, but particularly ones where beautiful women are matched up with unattractive guys (even though jennifer aniston went from brad pitt to vince vaughn in real life, i still do not want to have to see it on screen).

Excuse me, but Vince Vaughn is sex on a stick, as far as I'm concerned. Going from smarmy, arrogant Brad Pitt to funny, charming, sexy Vince is trading up!

[VanHelsing]

with a $44 million single day take...

as for the little film you keep championing, "the lake house," i liked the preview and the idea looks interesting, but keanu reeves is still an afront to the craft of acting.

i still think that romance is dead.

Amazing right?! I was expecting X-Men to be big, but not this BIG!

Gotta agree with your comment on Keanu Reeves. I just can hope that The Lake House won't go the Sweet November route.

Don't say that! I might just cry thinking that Lake House would flop. LOL!

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Can't wait to find out if X-Men could beat Spidey's OW record. I hope it does cause I've never been a fan of the Spidey movies. They looked too cartoonish although the train scene in the sequel was quite captivating.

[rolotomasi99]

with a $44 million single day take (second only to "revenge of the sith" $50 million), i think you may be right about "x-men 3" beating "the da vinci code" van helsing. the only reason i think "the da vinci code" might be able to narrowly beat "x-men 3" is because "cars" and "superman returns" and "pirates of the caribbean 2" are going to severely draw the same core audiences away from "x-men 3" (young kids and teenagers), while "the da vinci code" is probably go to continue to draw people over 30 and even older crowds who do not go to the movies often.

i hope "the break-up" bombs because i cannot stand dumb comedies period, but particularly ones where beautiful women are matched up with unattractive guys (even though jennifer aniston went from brad pitt to vince vaughn in real life, i still do not want to have to see it on screen).
as for "click," i call them losers only because they go to adam sandler films no matter how bad they are. i liked "the wedding singer" and "big daddy" but the other stuff is just mindless.

as for the little film you keep championing, "the lake house," i liked the preview and the idea looks interesting, but keanu reeves is still an afront to the craft of acting.

i still think that romance is dead. people just do not go to see romantic films anymore. "shakespeare in love" was the last romantic film that actually did well. you now either have ridiculously sappy romantic comedies ("hitch," "50 first dates") or obnoxious sex comedies passing for romance ("wedding crashers," "40 year old virgin"). the most successful romantic drama of last year (or the past few years for awhile) was "brokeback mountain." hell, it made slightly more money than the "notebook," the second most successful romantic drama in a while.
whatever happened to modern classics like "ghost" or "jerry maguire." now that was what i called romance. now all we have are sex ("mr. & mrs. smith"), sap ("hitch"), and jokes ("wedding crashers").