Predicting Box-Office - what will be the top moneymakers of 2006

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OscarGuy
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Post by OscarGuy »

But a solid opening day with Midnight screenings thrown in does not guarantee a blockbuster weekend. Only when we see saturday figures will we be able to tell more.
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Post by Franz Ferdinand »

But I love Back to the Future!
And besides, the estimate for Pirates' Friday box office is $55.5M....which pretty much a "holy hell!!" number. We are looking at the biggest box office weekend in history, and I have to sit it out with a broken leg...dammit!
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Post by OscarGuy »

It's not just The Pirates movie. It's the fate of the cursed. Wildly popular films that are not intended as trilogies when they are first made suddenly get sequels planned and then the two sequels are shot simultaneously. It generally ends up with the same occurrence, the second film is considered a slight let down and the third doesn't fare much better.

Think Back to the Future, The Matrix, Pirates of the Caribbean...
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Post by Franz Ferdinand »

I wonder if anyone is considering that perhaps Pirates will be a disappointment, like The Matrix sequels? No doubt, by now it has probably amassed some $52M in its opening day, and people are predicting that Episode III's three-day (Thursday-Saturday) total of $124M will fall by Sunday: but suppose that's as high as it goes? Reviews aren't very strong (like it matters), word-of-mouth becomes sour, and all of a sudden POTCIII is facing a fickle audience like Matrix Revolutions?
Hugely hyped original movie, elevated to near-iconic status...two extremely expensive and simultaneously filmed sequels with dramatically higher CGI content...almost significantly worse reviews for #2 with double the expectation....failure to perform ruining the third movie's box office and entire trilogy's stature...
Just a thought....
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Post by OscarGuy »

It may be that Superman wasn't as well liked as everyone seems to think. Remember, a lot of the big box office takes are based on repeat business. If those people who made the weak $21 M opening don't come back and re-watch several times, it's not going to gross very high. Besides, next week, Pirates 2 will sink Superman.
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Post by Franz Ferdinand »

This can be made official: Superman Returns will not reach $350M as some have predicted. Heck at this point, even $200M looks like it would be a struggle. After opening softly to $21M on Wednesday and dropping to $11M on Thursday, its Friday gross was a scant $16.2M, which would indicate it is heading for a (three- and five-day) gross similar to the other franchise rebooter, Batman Begins. Bottom line? Superman's return opening is a failure.
Batman Begins can at least claim to have opened in the middle of June, rather than the lucrative 4th of July weekend. Oops! The last big-budget anticipated opener on this weekend was the Cruise-Spielberg collabo of War Of The Worlds. That movie opened to $64.9M over three days and $112.7M over the five days. Ouch! Superman Returns won't even see the rarefied heights of - brace yourselves - Fantastic Four, a movie that was the July champ last year with $56M. And let's not even talk about X3's $103M three-day weekend, which Superman will be lucky to reach within seven days. Bryan Singer must be a little stung today!
Of course, Superman isn't a failure yet. But with the national holiday falling on Tuesday, pretty much everyone who had wanted to see it had the opportunity. Legs just don't seem very good for this movie, but Batman did surprise so we can hope for the Man of Steel. I guess Lois Lane won that Pulitzer for a reason - people just don't care about Superman anymore.
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Post by VanHelsing »

very disappointed with the lake house's opening weekend numbers. but it seems to have good word-of-mouth based on its weekday numbers. hopefully it can continue to have legs and reach or better the notebook's domestic total.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

boy, i have just not be doing well with these predictions. there have just been so many surprise bombs, and no surprise hits. you have the big bombs like "poseidon," and then the disappointing successes like "mission impossible 3" (ending up around $140 million) and "ice age 2" (ending just shy of $200 million).
even the successes were not as big as they should have been. "the break up" is not going to make it to $125 million. "the da vinci code" is going to barely get to $225 million. "cars" and "x-men 3" will be lucky to end up with $250 million. what a disappointing crop, both in terms of commercial and artistic success.
over the hedge has been the biggest surprise this year by getting close to $150 million. it is pretty surprising when a non-sequal, non-pixar animated film grosses more than a big action film like "mission impossible 3."
i am still not backing down from my $350 million for "pirates of the caribbean 2" and it looks like "superman returns" could fly past $300 million as well.
"happy feet," "lady in the water," "click," "miami vice," and others still have a chance, but it is not looking good.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

wow, so i was dead on with "the omen." it made $20 million from tuesday to thursday and an additioal $15 million from friday to tuesday for a $35 million seven day haul.
however, i was dead wrong about "cars." it is interesting that we live in a world where a nearly $63 million opening weekend is considered a disappointment. i still think "cars" has staying power and will continue on to a healthy $275-250 haul, being the third highest grossing film of the year.
i should not have second guessed myself about "x-men 3" since it did end up passing $200 million this weekend. considering the film cost $210 million to make, that is not exactly impressive. ultimate its run will end slightly south of $250 million.
"the da vinci code" will be close behind at number 5 with around $225 million.

the top ten as i currently see it:
1 Pirates Of The Caribbean 2 -- $350
2 Superman Returns -- $275
3 Cars -- $250
4 X-men 3 -- $250
5 The Da Vinci Code -- $225
6 Ice Age 2 -- $200
7 Happy Feet -- $175
8 Miami Vice - $150
9 Mission Impossible 3 -- $135
10 Lady In The Water -- $125
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Post by Sonic Youth »

Cars made nearly $63 million this weekend, and since it doesn't measure up to the previous two Pixar films, it is considered a disappointing opening.

I wouldn't mind a little disappointment in the form of a $63 million check, but that's just me.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

"the omen" -- tuesday thru thursday -- $20 million ($20,275,341 to be exact). not bad.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

i have not seen "the omen", but i have no reason to think this film will do any better than the other horror remakes that have come out lately. this movie seems to be made simply because some exec at fox could not pass up the opportunity to release the film on 6/6/06. did you notice that the exact amount given as the gross was $12,633,666. fox admitted that it fudged that last part.
i see the film making $6-8 million on wednesday and tuesday. that gives it about $20 million by friday, then it will make about $15 million on friday through sunday, so around $35 million for the first six days. not a bad haul for a tiny horror film.
i think it will most likely drop out of the top five by next weekend, with four major releases coming out and "cars" being a major hold over. it will probably end up with $60 million altogether.

i do revise my early statement about "x-men 3" and "the da vinci code." i do not think either one of them will pass $200 million this weekend. "x-men 3" will be five million shy, and "the da vinci code" will be ten million short. i still think both will pass $250 million, but will not reach $275 million.
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Post by Mister Tee »

rolotomasi99 wrote:"the omen" is going to put up very little resistance (maybe $35 million from tuesday to sunday).
Would you maybe want to revise that, given The Omen's $12 million Tuesday? Granted, like all horror films, it'll likely collapse quickly -- esp. once you've weeded out the sheep who actually responded to the whole 666 thing -- but a midweek start like that would seem to indicate a bit more than you've imagined.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

i am thinking a $90 million opening for "cars." early reviews are mixed, with some critics thinking it was just o.k. and others absolutely loving it, but no one hates it.
it will probably be a lesser pixar film, like "bug's life," "monsters inc," and "the incredibles" (still better than 90% of other animated films), but not on par with "toy story," "toy story 2," and "finding nemo" (one of the best animated films ever in my opinion). i am thinking a $275-250 million overall gross, making it push just a little past "x-men 3" and "the da vinci code" to be number 3 for the year, after of course "superman returns" and "pirates of the caribbean 2."
"the omen" is going to put up very little resistance (maybe $35 million from tuesday to sunday). both "x-men 3" and "the da vinci code" should pass $200 million this week (barely), and "over the hedge" is going to suffer the most from "cars" release, keeping it from passing $150 million for its total run.
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Post by VanHelsing »

yeah, congrats rolo! well, what can we say, x-men was proven to be frontloaded. unless the break-up has legs, i feel that 150 million would be quite a stretch. so far, its wom has been quite bad.

next week, i think it's a given that cars would debut at the top spot. omen opens on tuesday so its weekend numbers would be affected a little bit.

as for the june 16th weekend, of course my vote goes to the lake house to be no.1 but i know it ain't gonna happen. it would most likely be a fight between tokyo drift & nacho libre for the top spot with tokyo drift winning. or cars might still be no.1 for a 2nd week.
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