Predicting Box-Office - what will be the top moneymakers of 2006

[Franz Ferdinand]

Borat's box office this past weekend is glorious to me. I should have realized from the Friday night I spent in the theatres just how much potential it had to break out, and here is the proof. A weekend gross of $26.4M, for an astounding theatre average of $31,511.
What makes this even sweeter is that instead of being front-loaded with a huge drop from Friday to Saturday, Borat actually increased 10% from its $9.2M Friday to an estimated $10.1M Saturday - extraordinary when you consider that its audience was 55% male and 53% under the age of 25. That is an incredible split for a movie of this nature, and the Saturday increase bodes well for the future. Next weekend Borat will likely expand into 2,500+ theatres, fueled by a (nearly) unprecedented opening, and the tons of free publicity this will generate will probably make this movie a sure-fire $100M grosser. Whoever guessed this (and no, I won't count my wildest dreams here) has some serious foresight talents.

[Franz Ferdinand]

I personally didn't much care for Superman. It wasn't the fact that I went to see it in uncomfortable broken-legged pain, or that a group of hyper-nerds were babbling and cracking jokes through the ENTIRE movie; I'm sure if I didn't see it in the 3-D IMAX format, I'd have thought it utterly boring. It just wasn't a movie that grabbed you and held you captive. The special effects were neat but uninspiring, and it went on quite a bit longer than necessary. The 3-D was the saving grace. The fact that it was still in some theatres at the start of October convinced me that it would stagger ever...so...slowly to $200M, and here it is. Good on them, but no sequels please.

[rolotomasi99]

"superman returns" finally passed $200 million. i never thought it would happen. it took 117 days (the 8th longest time for a movie) but it was able to creep past the bicentennial mark. i see it more as a symbolic milestone than anything else. kind of like "king kong" i think the film is going to find great success on d.v.d. why this film was rejected by the public is one of the great mysteries of this year in film. it had incredible special effects, a deft storytelling, and fun acting from its villain. it was just as good as any of the other summer crap that usually makes money. i just do not see why this film was hated by so many.
it is just as startling as the surprise success of "the departed." i think "the departed" is one of the best films of the year, but as we all know quality filmmaking and box-office success usually do not go together. the movie was smart, artistic, brutal, and well made. for all those reasons people should have avoided it like the plague. like "the illusionist" and "little miss sunshine" we are seeing a strange celebration of indepedent artsy films. they are not the biggest blockbusters ever or anything, but they are far more successful than anyone thought possible. hopefully this trend continues deep into oscar season.

[Franz Ferdinand]

Did anyone predict that The Departed would be the smash that it is? It is a lock for $100M and depending on its legs (very strong over three weekends) it might reach considerably higher. It is a minor triumph for the year's movies.

[VanHelsing]

I think you forgot about Night At The Museum. This is also a tentpole release. Yes, Casino Royale will most likely win over Happy Feet on their opening weekend. After that, Feet will continue to have legs while Royale will lose out in terms of final box-office tally.

[MovieWes]

No way that Happy Feet has a snowball's chance in hell at $200 million. It comes out the same weekend as Casino Royale, which is a far more anticipated movie and will kill it on opening weekend. Bond's looking at no less than a $55 million opening, while I think Happy Feet will be lucky to pull a $30 million opening. And then after that, nothing else is coming out for almost a month.

Casino Royale and Eragon are the only two movies coming out over the holidays with a realistic chance at $200+ million. And we all know that there's going to be at least one movie to make it past $200 million this fall/winter (if nothing does, it will be the first year since 1998 that it hasn't happened).

[VanHelsing]

I don't think Casino Royale can get to the 250 mil mark. Not even 200 mil. Happy Feet should easily earn more than 115 mil. I think both would earn around 150 mil with Happy Feet having the potential to cross 200 mil.

[MovieWes]

Anyway, if I were a betting man, I'd bet on Casino Royale being the big hit of the holiday movie season. I doubt very seriously that a bunch of dancing penguins are going to pose much of a threat to the world's greatest superagent. :p

[anonymous1980]

George Miller directed Babe: Pig in the City (and produced Babe) so he has experience with talking animals.

They should try to rerelease Monster House during Halloween so it could make more money. I think it's the best non-PIXAR CGI movie to date. I'm serious.

[MovieWes]

Tell that to the moviegoers. Hollywood's been releasing way too many of these CG-animated movies lately, and only a few of them are successful (as opposed to a couple of years ago, when they were ALL successful). This year, there've been almost a dozen of these movies released, but only three (Cars, Ice Age 2, and Over the Hedge) made more than $100 million. Monster House got generally favorable reviews (much better than Ice Age 2 and Over the Hedge), but so far it's made little more than $70 million. And Barnyard, which got pretty mediocre reviews, has done about the same as Monster House at the box-office. Expect Open Season, with its unanimously lousy reviews, to post about the same numbers as well. Due to the fact that Happy Feet is being released around the holidays, I expect it make a little bit more money, but the bottom line is that people are just getting sick of these movies.

The thing is, CG-animated movies used to be really expensive, so studios had to make sure that the scripts were great before they were put into production. Nowadays, it's getting cheaper and cheaper to make these things, and as a result they're getting dumber and dumber. And they're coming out in greater quantities. It almost makes me wish that Pixar had a monopoly on CG-animated movies, since they're currently the only ones with actual writing anymore (although I did enjoy The Polar Express and, to a lesser extent, Monster House). And by Pixar, I mean only Pixar. Disney is not included in the equation, since it seems that, based on Chicken Little, Disney is totally incapable of making a quality CG-animated movie on their own.

By the way, does anyone else find it odd that George Miller, the man responsible for the Mad Max movies, is the director of Happy Feet? I wasn't aware that he had any experience in animation.

[anonymous1980]

I hear Happy Feet is supposed to be really good. The teaser trailer was cute but I'm not optimistic.

The best animated feature I've seen this year is Monster House.

[MovieWes]

I have to wonder, given how incredibly weak the holiday season is, if Casino Royale will be first Bond film to gross $250 million domestic (unadjusted for inflation, that is... I'm aware that, counting inflation, many of the Connery/Moore Bonds have blown way past that). In the 11 years since Brosnan took over, the competition has always proven very heavy for 007 ("Toy Story" in '95, "Titanic" in '97, "Toy Story 2" in '99, and "Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets" in '02), but this year it seems as if Bond is standing virtually unopposed for almost an entire month, until Eragon comes out mid-December (although I do admit that The Nativity Story might have the potential to become a mini-Passion for the Christmas season... the only thing is that Catherine Hardwicke doesn't have the box-office credibility that Mel Gibson does... which is why I'll laugh if Nativity beats Apocalypto at the B.O. this December). I can't even remember the last time that a Bond movie was the major motion picture event of an entire season. The last time must've been before I was even born.

I also don't expect Happy Feet to make more than $115 million. Sub-par CG-animated movies haven't been doing so hot at the box-office lately.

[rolotomasi99]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15016572/

great, hilarious article about how the box office has changed in the past 25 years.

[rolotomasi99]

boy oh boy, was i off with my predix. the only one i got right was "pirates of the caribbean 2" which i predicted way back would be in the $400 million neighborhood. everything else i was off by $50-100 million. so many of those sure things (how could "the da vinci code" gone so wrong?) were just big flops (relatively speaking).
the year is not over, but the only films that i can imagine making it into the top ten are "happy feet" and "casino royale." "the grudge 2," "the santa clause 3," "night at the museum," and a few others could break the century mark, but i doubt any will crack the top ten.

first predix
1. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2 -- $400-375
2. THE DA VINCI CODE -- $350-325
3. CARS -- $275-250
4. SUPERMAN RETURNS -- $275-250
5. ICE AGE 2 -- $250-225
7. X-MEN 3 -- $250-225
6. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3 -- $250-225
8. MIAMI VICE -- $200-175
9. POSEIDON -- $200-175
10. HAPPY FEET -- $175-150

second predix
1. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2 -- $350-325
2. THE DA VINCI CODE -- $275-250
3. CARS -- $250-225
4. SUPERMAN RETURNS -- $250-225
5. X-MEN 3 -- $250-225
6. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3 -- $225-200
7. ICE AGE 2 -- $200-190
8. HAPPY FEET -- $150-125
9. POSEIDON -- $150-125
10. MIAMI VICE -- $100-125

third predix
1. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2 -- $350
2. SUPERMAN RETURNS -- $275
3. CARS -- $250
4. X-MEN 3 -- $250
5. THE DA VINCI CODE -- $225
6. ICE AGE 2 -- $200
7. HAPPY FEET -- $175
8. MIAMI VICE -- $150
9. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 3 -- $135
10. LADY IN THE WATER -- $125

fourth (and most recent) predix
1. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 2 -- $420
2. CARS -- $242
3. X-MEN 3 -- $234
4. THE DA VINCI CODE -- $217
5. SUPERMAN RETURNS -- $197
6. ICE AGE 2 -- $195
7. HAPPY FEET -- $165
8. OVER THE HEDGE -- $155
9. TALLADEGA NIGHTS -- $148
10. CASINO ROYALE -- $140

[MovieWes]

Pirates Hits the $1 Billion Mark

Walt Disney Pictures' Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest should join Titanic and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Thursday as the only movies ever released to top $1 billion in worldwide grosses.

The "Pirates" sequel has been out of the domestic top 10 for the past two weekends, but still managed to bring in $4.9 million during the Labor Day weekend to lift the North American total past $414 million -- the sixth-highest on the all-time list.

It is mainly recent foreign business that's pushed "Dead Man's Chest" over the 10-figure mark. The film has remained dominant internationally with a nine-weekend winning streak and, as of Tuesday, had earned around $583 million overseas.

The top foreign markets have been the U.K. at $94 million and Japan with $78 million. "Chest" should add another significant chunk of business from Italy, where the final opening is set for Sept. 15.

There's no chance for "Dead Man's Chest" to catch Titanic, which stands at $1.83 billion, and it would need another $130 million to overtake "The Return of the King" at $1.13 billion.

The third installment, Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End, hits theaters on May 25, 2007.