The 15th Annual Who'll Be Back?

[flipp525]

Which may explain why people here have been so itchy for this report, which I’m posting no later than usual. (Do you think these things write themselves?)

Okay, calm down. You should take it as a compliment.

[FilmFan720]

Julia Roberts was treated as royalty throughout the entire telecast and was even singled out by Cate Blanchett along with the list of Best Actress nominees (the only Supporting nominee to be so).

Blanchett also singled out her co-star, Sally Hawkins, another Supporting nominee, in her speech.

Yes, but as I remember she mentioned her when talking about the movie. At one point, she listed all of her competition, and threw Julia into the mix with them. To someone not really following, they may have thought that Julia also had a Best Actress nomination.

[flipp525]

Julia Roberts was treated as royalty throughout the entire telecast and was even singled out by Cate Blanchett along with the list of Best Actress nominees (the only Supporting nominee to be so).

Blanchett also singled out her co-star, Sally Hawkins, another Supporting nominee, in her speech.

[Reza]

An excellent read as usual, Mr Tee. Had been looking forward to it even before the Oscars were awarded.

Thanks.

[Greg]

Sandra Bullock…Bullock’s Blind Side Oscar was a fluke in every respect – a crappy movie that for some reason struck box-office gold, in a year with a best actress field so weak that giving a career prize to a Hollywood sweetheart seemed no worse an outcome than any other. What Gravity has given her is a more legit credit – a widely-admired movie carried on her shoulders, for which she’d have been nominated most any year. Whether she ever comes up with another such film is of course unknowable, but she’s in the driver’s seat with her career to a greater degree than ever before, so I wouldn’t bet against a further nod or two.

One thing going for Bullock is that I have read she stands to make, when videos and everything else is said and done, $70 million on Gravity. That would give her the opportunity to self finance a film or two, even if they would be lower budget by Hollywood standards, and guarantee that she has some interesting work to do.

[OscarGuy]

Or this generation's Julianne Moore.

I think Oscar Isaac may be the right choice, Tee. I disagree with your citation that Brie Larson was less of a contender than Adele Exarchopoulos, but I also think Larson should have been a nominee, so there's that. I don't think she'll be back unless she has a Jennifer Lawrence-type emergence. Will Forte bubbled under with his Nebraska work. It got a lot of attention and, with the popularity of the film, I have to believe he was in the hunt for a nomination, even if he came up short. He clearly has some talent, but I'm not sure he'll make it back into the race. Sarah Paulson may have been a weak supporting actress contender, but having seen her work on television in the "American Horror Story" minis, "Studio 60," and apparently unseen-by-me "Game Change," I suspect she has a lot of potential. Emmys will take notice, but if she can keep finding roles like that in 12 Years a Slave, she might burst onto film the same way and could be a nominee one day. Todd Haynes' "Carol" perhaps?

[mlrg]

Amy Adams: Will be nominated again. She could win one day - the times of "many nominations, no wins" seem to be over.

I have a feeling she could be this generation's Glenn Close

[ITALIANO]

Difficult to say, but this is what I feel.


Leonardo Di Caprio: Will be nominated again, will win (and probably soon).
Bruce Dern: Will not be nominated again
Chiwetel Eijofor: Will not be nominated again (sadly)
Christian Bale: Will be nominated again, will not win again
Matthew McConaughey: Will be nominated again, and could even win again.

Amy Adams: Will be nominated again. She could win one day - the times of "many nominations, no wins" seem to be over.
Judi Dench: It depends. If she keeps making movies, she will be nominated again. In theory she could even win a second Oscar, in Supporting.
Meryl Streep: Will be nominated again, will win again.
Sandra Bullock: She's so beloved in America.... But no, I'll follow my instinct: will not be nominated again.
Cate Blanchett: Will be nominated again. She could even win a third Oscar, but definitely not soon.

Barkhad Abdi: Will not be nominated again
Jonah Hill: Will not be nominated again
Michael Fassbender: Will be nominated again, will win.
Jared Leto: This is tough. But I'd say: Will not be nominated again.
Bradley Cooper: Will be nominated again. A win isn't impossible.

June Squibb: Will not be nominated again
Julia Roberts: Will be nominated again, but not soon. Will not win again.
Lupita Nyong'o: Will not be nominated again.
Jennifer Lawrence: Will be nominated again, could win again sooner or later
Sally Hawkins: Could be nominated again, but I don't think she will ever win.

Bonus: Joaquin Phoenix is too good not to be AT LEAST nominated in the next few years.

[taki15]

Thank you Mister Tee for your thorough and extremely interesting analysis. I must confess that I await every year your "Who'll be back" threads with even greater anticipation than the Oscars themselves.

[FilmFan720]

Yet again, thank you Mister Tee for covering all of this.

Overall, this line-up of actors is an oddly popular, successful and well-respected line-up that you have to imagine will come up again. Just at a glance, to bet against DiCaprio, Bale, McConaughey, Streep, Adams, Blanchett, Dench, Roberts, Lawrence, Cooper or Fassbender from emerging again as a nominee would be ridiculous. If they can enter the Awards season radar again, they will be back at the Dolby Auditorium.

As for wins, I would say that Amy Adams and Leonardo DiCaprio are going to be winning the soonest. Both seem on the verge of being due.

Leonardo DiCaprio and Jonah Hill are supposedly making a film about Atlanta Olympics Bomber Richard Jewell...if could very easily get them back here, and at this point I wouldn't be surprised to see Jonah Hill back as a nominee (especially if he can show something a little different or more dramatic).

A couple other random thoughts:

Only four black actors have come back with a second Oscar acting nomination: Denzel Washington, Sidney Poitier, Morgan Freeman and Will Smith (Jamie Foxx has two nominations, but they were both the same year, of course). Chiwetel Ejiofor isn't exactly in their camp, so the odds wouldn't seem to be in his favor.

The career choices I am most interested in seeing next are Lupita Nyong'o's. She has the chops, but you just don't know where her career is going next, or where the roles are going to fall for her. This is not the kindest of towns for black actresses (only two have repeat nominations: Whoopi Goldberg and Viola Davis), and neither of them had the further hurdle of a very thick accent. If she can find some interesting work, she will be back, but my guess is she needs to get back into a Best Picture nominee to get a nomination again (as both those actresses did).

I think you underestimate what this nomination did for Julia Roberts. She has (by choice) been pretty absent from the Hollywood scene for several years, but here she was at the Oscars about as front-and-center as a very distant also-ran nominee can be. I doubt she garnered many votes, but she had a prime seat, was the center of a lot of attention on Awards night (both on the red carpet and off), was treated as royalty throughout the entire telecast and was even singled out by Cate Blanchett along with the list of Best Actress nominees (the only Supporting nominee to be so). I would say that a lot of people came out of the evening being reminded that she is a truly A-List star, even if she has been a distant one as of late, and can play with the best of them. I wouldn't be surprised to see her start to make more films as her family gets older and wouldn't be surprised at all to see her back again soon.

As for the also-rans, a couple of names you didn't throw out. I doubt Daniel Bruhl will ever get as perfect a role as Rush gave him, but if he can get in a film that is better received (i.e. a Best Picture contender, or even a film with a strong nominated performance by a more respected actor), he could make it.

Although he faded from awards season once the small size of his roles was discovered, Benedict Cumberbatch was in two high-profile multi-nominees this year and seems destined for a nomination once he gets a role that really shows him off.

Ryan Coogler seems on the verge of a very interesting career, and young indie directors who burst on the scene can go two ways. If he starts into studio genre films he will disappear, but if he can start making interesting films on a larger scale, I could see him being our first black Best Director winner before Steve McQueen gets back.

I don't think Tracy Letts can get nominated for adapting one of his plays, but if he wants to venture into writing something else, I could see him sneak into a screenplay nomination along the way.

I'm going to go on a limb, though, and predict an eventual nomination for someone who was ineligible this year. Justin Timberlake continues to have a varied and interesting career, and as he has started to branch into acting, has stumbled into some well-regarded films by some true auteurs. I'm not sure how complex of roles he will pick up, but if he can stumble on something good, couldn't he be rewarded for being such a well-liked personality (and is Justin Timberlake, Oscar nominated actor any more ridiculous than Oscar Winner Matthew McConaughey have been five years ago?). If not, he still continues to write popular music and he could easily pick up a Best Song nomination or two in the coming years.

[Mister Tee]

Is it me, or does the post-Oscar conversation appear to have faded mighty quickly? Usually there are at least a few things people are still humming about days later. Maybe the off-shoot of an as-expected Oscar year is we’ve exhausted the post-mortem in advance. Which may explain why people here have been so itchy for this report, which I’m posting no later than usual. (Do you think these things write themselves?)

So, to the topic at hand: speculation over who among this year’s unsuccessful nominees might return in the near- or far-term to collect the statue they were denied this time around.

Leonardo DiCaprio…While I wouldn’t go so far as those Italiano quoted – I don’t think DiCaprio was ever a full-on favorite this season – I think he more than anyone this year advanced his cause for a future win. I think he gave the best performance of his adult life (maybe the best two, if you want to include Gatsby), and came by far the closest he ever has to competing for the prize. I know: he was outstanding in Gilbert Grape…but his youth played against him that year. And his last two nominations were strictly throw-ins. This time around, he was truly a player, despite the twin handicaps of Wolf’s initial rocky response and the film’s late arrival. (A subject for discussion might be whether, with bloggers setting early narratives, December arrivals are now at a disadvantage.) For maybe the first time, I think some in the Hollywood community see him as a guy who OUGHT to get an Oscar at some point. They certainly respect his career arc and earning power – no one else is close to him in terms of racking up $100 million grossers even while eschewing tentpoles and working almost exclusively with auteurs. What project he might return in is for now a mystery, as he has nothing firmly scheduled (many of this year’s nominees, in fact, have surprisingly few future projects lined up). But, based on his last decade-plus, we can expect he’ll work with major directors on top-drawer projects, and I’d about bet the ranch he’s on the stage accepting an award before…well, let’s say before the end of the Hillary administration.

Chiwetel Ejiofor…Ejiofor was a bit of a connoisseur’s actor prior to this year: dedicated film fans had seen and appreciated his work for a decade or more, but to the general public he was unknown. He’s now a name-and-face, so the question is how well he’s able to cash in this newfound fame and get the roles he deserves. He of course faces the same wall that other black actors have crashed against in that pursuit: the lack of primary roles in Hollywood. Of course, this may be moot, if he continues to do much of his work in the UK – but that of course would also work against his returning to the Oscars. I’d say, despite his talent, he’s at best a 50/50 proposition to ever be back.

Bruce Dern…Dern had his first Academy nomination in 1978, and was nominated again this year. That lines him up precisely with Meryl Streep…except she’s had 16 nominations in the intervening period. That tells you most of what there is to know about Dern’s likelihood of return. This was a rare leading role for an aging character man, wildly unlikely to be replicated unless some director-with-clout decides to do Dern a favor. Most likely, this was his career tribute, and I hope he enjoyed it.

Christian Bale…Charting Bale’s awards career is a fool’s errand . He was 20 years into his fame before the Oscars even noticed him, and now he sits a few years later with multiple nominations and a statue. He’s always worked a lot, on a wide variety of projects; it’s actually surprising it took him this long to get noticed by the Academy. Will he be one of those, like Sean Penn, who waited years for first recognition, then got lots more in succession? We’ll have to see.

Matthew McConaughey…For those who’ve forgotten, let me give myself a giant pat on the back: McConaughey was my bonus-round pick last year. I certainly didn’t expect to be proven right in such a big way (his being nominated was plenty to validate the pick). Presumably he’s got his second wind as a leading man now – Interstellar is a more promising mainstream project than any he’s been connected to since the 90s – and that could mean further Academy mentions. Plus, everyone’s about guaranteeing him an Emmy. So, no need to worry about his career for a while. I’d be inclined to doubt his ability to win a second Oscar, but, in a world where Hilary Swank wins twice, never say never.

Amy Adams…I didn’t think it was possible for Adams to move further up in the queue, but I’d say she did – by at last getting herself up into the lead division, and by getting people for once to single her out. All her previous nominations seemed to be second-thoughts attached to other performers in her films: Viola Davis in Doubt, Bale and Leo in The Fighter, the two guys in The Master. (Even this year, Lawrence drew more focus.) However, between the NY Critics putting her in second place in best actress voting, and Cate Blanchett lauding her first from the stage the other night, I think Adams has come a bit more into focus, in a “You’ve sort of taken her for granted, but this lady can really act” way. Her upcoming Tim Burton movie seems almost too perfect an Oscar vehicle – so obvious it could be jinxed. However that turns out, though, we can expect she’ll continue her run of working with exceptional directors (Russell, Anderson, Jonze), and sooner or later she’ll win the prize outright.

Sandra Bullock…Bullock’s Blind Side Oscar was a fluke in every respect – a crappy movie that for some reason struck box-office gold, in a year with a best actress field so weak that giving a career prize to a Hollywood sweetheart seemed no worse an outcome than any other. What Gravity has given her is a more legit credit – a widely-admired movie carried on her shoulders, for which she’d have been nominated most any year. Whether she ever comes up with another such film is of course unknowable, but she’s in the driver’s seat with her career to a greater degree than ever before, so I wouldn’t bet against a further nod or two.

Judi Dench…Magilla’s pet oldster might have competed in another year – especially with the Weinstein push – but Blanchett was too much to withstand. Now you have to wonder how many chances Dench will have left to get that lead prize to match her supporting trophy. The Marigold sequel certainly isn’t going to bring it about, and after that…well, she’s been murmuring some about physical decline, and that may lead her to retirement before long. I guess one teeny supporting award (for her smallest role) doesn’t seem like much, in view of her seven nominations, but I’d say she’s running out of road to change that situation.

Meryl Streep…I presume someday Streep will stop garnering nominations – everyone does, at some point – but she’s still, in Dench terms, relatively young, and it’s clear she’s going to be considered pretty much every time she comes to bat. And she just keeps churning out the work – of all this year’s nominees, she has by far the fullest future schedule, one filled with Oscar-potential vehicles (even if most of them don’t sound like such great movies). You have to figure Meryl’s going to continue to rack up nominations upwards of 20, and a 4th win is not remotely out of the question.

Cate Blanchett…My feeling after the 2004 Oscars was that the winners were upside down – the two supporting victors (Freeman and Blanchett) seemed far more worthy of top-category trophies than the two who’d won as leads. It took almost a decade, but Blanchett, at least, has validated my take. It remains to be seen if Blanchett is going to resume a full-throttle film career (beyond her Hobbit forays), but, if she does, I think there’s no doubt she’ll be racking up further nominations. A third win is always difficult (unless your name is Daniel Day-Lewis), but if she heads up toward ten nominations, she’s got a shot.

Michael Fassbender…I did (relatively) poorly in predicting this year’s Oscar slate, but I take comfort in having seen two bonus-round choices come through: McConaughey, as I said, was my 2012 pick, and Fassbender got the call in 2011. Of course, that wasn’t exactly out-on-a-limb stuff – Fassbender is such a good actor, so prized by so many good directors, that the wonder is he wasn’t cited earlier. His dance-card for the immediate future is pretty full, and, while nothing on the list of films looks automatic for Oscar consideration, his very presence announces the possibility. Campaigning or not, Fassbender looks to show up at the Oscars with regularity over the next decade.

Bradley Cooper…Well, his career has pretty much changed. Where before The Hangover was his default, and something like Limitless his upper edge, now he’s working with Cameron Crowe (and presumably David O. Russell again, and other top-notch directors), and viewed as a this-moment actor. I’m not saying he’s as bound to win an Oscar one day as some of his co-stars. But I do believe he’ll have his chances over the coming years, and that’s not something anyone would have projected pre-Silver Linings.

Jonah Hill…You’d think the same could be said of Jonah Hill, but I don’t rate him quite as high. He’s an intelligent, savvy film guy, and certainly he’ll take advantage of what opportunities come his way. The question is, how many Scorseses out there have roles for a guy who’s, even with his weight-loss, still something of a limited physical type? His future-project ledger still seems to lean commercial (albeit top-level commercial – the first Jump Street movie was decently clever, and LEGO/How to Train Your Dragon are among the better animated efforts). He’ll need luck as well as ability to follow up on this one-two punch with the Oscars. A return – even a possible win – remain iffy, but every solid credit brings him closer to long-term respectability.

Barkhad Abdi….A non-professional of a very specific ethnic type pretty much screams “one-off”. The fact that most people think he was indeed the stand-out of his movie helps – he’ll probably get cast a bit, at least for a while. I think of Chief Dan George as precedent: he worked fairly steadily after Little Big Man, but never again approached the heights of that one performance/film. I’d be happy to be proven wrong, but that’s how it looks.

Jared Leto…Respectfully, who even knows when Jared Leto will make a movie again? There will presumably be good directors wanting to work with him while he’s hot – hell, even when he was cold, he worked with Malick, Fincher and Aronofsky. But his hardly-careerist life-plan is beyond predicting. He may go into the books as a “who was that guy, anyway?”…or he may storm his way through the next decade.

Sally Hawkins…Sally Hawkins will likely work for a long time, at least in British cinema – she’s obviously talented, with a decent range. Whether there are many American directors or roles to give her a chance to match Ginger is the question. However, given that Ginger isn’t even the premiere role of her career-to-date, one would have to say she’s got some chance of returning to the Oscars – at least the way, say, Julie Walters did later in her career.

Jennifer Lawrence…Well, she dodged a bullet. It would hardly have been her fault if she’d won two years in a row, but many on the Internet (especially Nyong’o fans) would have flayed her mercilessly had that been the outcome. As it is, she can pause a moment to look back on an extraordinary two years. Recall: at this point in 2012, prior to the first Hunger Games’ release, she was just “the girl in Winter’s Bone”, known to us but a stranger to most of America; now she’s a huge box-office star and a respected actress as well, with an Oscar and prizes from every major critics’ group. At 23. She doesn’t have any films lined up beyond her franchises (well, Serena, but given the long delay surrounding that, one assumes it’s a clunker). It’ll be very interesting to see where she goes next. My feeling is, she’s barely scratched the surface of her talents, and we’ll be seeing her go unexpected directions over the coming decade --- with future nominations attached.

June Squibb….Gloria Stuart redux, except her film wasn’t seen by a billion people. A very nice tribute for a long-time “working actress”, one that’ll probably get her TV work, at least, in the years just ahead. An Oscar return would shock just about everyone.

Julia Roberts…Was Julia Roberts nominated this year? Oh, right… It’s hard to see what her severe-category-fraud nomination proved – apart from “Harvey can still get those nominations”. And it got her in the selfie-seen-round-the-world. Hey, I like Julia. It’s nice to see her back at work. But taking this nomination slot from someone who might have appreciated the career boost seems piggy. (At least it wasn’t Hawkins or Squibb upstaged) And I think it has zero impact on Roberts’ standing in AMPAS’ world.

Lupita Nyong’o…Nyong’o showed real talent, and remained poised throughout the long awards season. She developed a large and near-rabid fan-base. If I have a worry, it’s that all this – oh, and winning the Oscar first time out – could set her up for a too much/too soon crash. We really don’t know much yet about the extent of her talent, beyond a solid first impression, and an awful lot of the Internet frenzy around her seems more focused on her red-carpet fashion sense…which is not nothing, but tangential to whether she really has a major acting career ahead. And she, like every black actress before her, faces the difficulty of finding roles commensurate with her ability. I imagine there are people who’ll pounce on me for saying this —those who already have her in the Acting Hall of Fame -- but I’m at this point agnostic about the future direction of her career.

David O. Russell…I’m sure going 0-for-10 the other night hurt (especially losing the one prize he might have won to an apparent close friend). But there’s a glass-half-full way of looking at this. Since the 90s, Oscar voters have been pensioning off directors with screenwriting Oscars: Neil Jordan, Jane Campion, Tarantino, Curtis Hanson, Cameron Crowe…up through Sofia Coppola, Payne twice , now Jonze. Of that group, only the Coen brothers have returned to win a directing trophy; it’s been a bit of a dead end, awards-wise. Russell, having been fully denied, is still on the must-win list – and, in fact, may have pushed himself further along. Some on other Oscar sites dispute this; they hate American Hustle with the heat of a thousand suns, and assume this shutout was a loud, Gangs of New York-ish kick at the film. But Gangs of New York lost in 2-3 categories where it seemed to be in front; American Hustle always seemed a possibility to get blanked because 1) it was alongside two behemoths slugging it out, and 2) there weren’t a lot of categories for it to triumph in. (Consider this: would it have been similarly shut out in 2011 – or is it just as easy to imagine it winning best picture there?) Whatever the Internet thinks, the Academy likes David O. Russell’s run of recent films – to the tune of 25 nominations -- and I don’t expect that to stop any time soon. Russell is apparently taking a bit of a breather, but when he resumes filmmaking, I expect him to get the attention of Oscar voters, and very possibly win the whole shooting match.

Alexander Payne…Can we say at this point that Payne is in Daniel Day-Lewis territory – that every time he puts out a movie it’ll be automatically given top Oscar consideration? (The screenplay omission for About Schmidt seems a long time ago) I’d thought Payne’s two screenplay wins would have “taken care of him”, in Academy eyes, for the foreseeable future, but this not-fully-expected directing nomination says to me they just really-really-like his films, and I see no reason to expect that to change. It’s even possible some year he’ll make the film they like most of all, enabling him to add picture/directing trophies to his collection.

Martin Scorsese…For those who wanted Scorsese to make another movie like his 70s/80s work, he did -- and the Academy responded as of-old, giving him no prizes. However, they put him into the upper-echelon of directing nominees (8 – count ‘em – 8 nods), and may be looking for another opportunity to give him a trophy down the line, if he’ll just soften up a little bit. Unlike his fellow nominees this year, Scorsese has films lined up – perhaps because he knows a 71-year old may not have unlimited time to make the films he envisions. Eventually, I suppose he’ll slow down (or even be gone). But that time doesn’t, blessedly, appear to be now.

Steve McQueen…I’ll ask, from the opposite direction, the question I asked about Kathryn Bigelow four years back: having stumbled into mainstream/award-consideration territory, will McQueen now pull back onto previously staked-out ground (in his case, the art film)? -- or will he make further forays into Oscar territory? A corollary question would be, will voters see his producer-credit Oscar as the equivalent of his having won best director, or will he be seen as still owed? I don’t have a clue about the answer to either, and on them will depend whether we hear McQueen’s name among nominees or winners in the future.

Alfonso Cuaron…By his own admission, he’s lazy: it took seven-plus years for his follow-up to Children of Men, so we shouldn’t anticipate a quick return. But it’s exciting to know Cuaron is now in what Mel Brooks called the “green awning” stage of his career – he’s made so much money for the studios that if he comes to them saying he wants to make a movie about a green awning, they’ll say “I trust your judgment” and let him go ahead. It’s impossible to guess what he’ll do next; this is a director who’s never repeated himself. What we know, though, is he’s a man of great cinematic imagination who also possesses at least some level of popular showmanship. Whatever he comes up with, I know I’ll want to see it, and I’d guess Oscar voters will feel the same.

The bonus round:

First, to repeat the stipulations (which will as usual be ignored by many): Pick the person thought to be in the running for a nomination this year who fell short, but who you think will turn up on a slate in the none-too-distant future.

It’s not easy this year. Most of the obvious excludees were former winners or nominees: Hanks, Redford, Phoenix, Thompson – even Franco, or Oprah. There’s Gandolfini, who sadly can’t return. You can argue Brie Larson, and I understand wanting to highlight her talent – but, in honesty, she was never actually in the race. Adele Exarchopoulos is tempting, but, as much as I liked her, I have no idea what else she can do (or how good her English is). Lea Seydoux might even be a stronger choice. You could also say Scarlett Johansson, who got a lot of enthusiastic-if-hopeless promotion for the voice work in her. She does seem to keep hanging around good films and directors, and might someday get her due. But I’m going to say Oscar Isaac, who placed well in critics’ derbies if not guilds, and seems to have some intriguing projects lined up.