The 10th Annual Who'll Be Back?

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Post by Big Magilla »

I don't know, but that may well be the record. Don't count on the other four making it a clean sweep. I don't know what the odds are against such a thing, but I imagine they would be enormous.



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Post by The Original BJ »

I wasn't sure where to put this, but it struck me today that Winslet's win this year brings the 2001 acting slate to a staggering 16 Oscar winners, including all ten female acting nominees.

What's even more interesting: it seems genuinely possible that the four un-Oscared actors (all now multiple nominees) -- Will Smith, Tom Wilkinson, Ethan Hawke, and Ian McKellen -- might one day become trophy winners.

I guess this had me thinking -- what's the year with the most Oscar winners among acting nominees?
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Post by flipp525 »

On the bright so though, with the possibility of a Mo'Nique nomination next year, we could have four years in a row of black nominated supporting actresses (2008 - Davis, Henson; 2007 - Dee; 2006 - Hudson). That must be a first which is definitely a step in the right direction.



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Post by dws1982 »

anonymous wrote:Someone in another board pointed out that Whoopi Goldberg is the only black actress so far in Oscar history to manage to get more than one Oscar nomination in her career. This does not bode too well for Viola Davis and Taraji P. Henson.

The simple fact itself does not work against Henson and Davis.

What does work against them, and the reason that black actresses so rarely return as a nominee, is the fact that the most prominent roles for black actresses--especially middle-aged ones, which Davis and Henson will both soon be considered--are mostly in Tyler Perry films, or in generic mother roles, which are not on the Oscar radar.

Okri wrote:The one I'm most looking forward to is Andrew Garfield. I think his performance in Boy A this year was a class unto itself and while ineligible for the Oscars (aired on British TV in 2007 before sneaking into TIFF 2007), he displayed phenomenal ability. I think dws1982 is the only other person here who's seen it, but it's an amazing performance and I'd like to think there's more good things coming from him.

If it had been Oscar-eligible, I can't imagine that the Weinstein's, who distributed it in the States, wouldn't have at least tried to get a nomination for Garfield. He may turn out to be a one-movie wonder, but he should at least get a shot at some great roles on the basis of Boy A. He certainly deserves to be contending for some of the big roles out there for twenty-something actors.

And anyone who hasn't seen Boy A, I urge you to put it on your Netflix queue.

I'd also put Michael Fassbender out there as a possibility. IFC didn't know how to handle Hunger, but I think they could have possibly gotten some critics mentions or something for him. He's got some kind of role in Inglorious Basterds, followed by a Joel Schumacher movie (gotta pay the rent, I guess), and then he's apparently attached for a new adaptation of Wuthering Heights, opposite Abby Cornish, directed by Girl With a Pearl Earring's Peter Webber.

I'll be rooting for both of them to get that role that gets them the recognition these performances should've gotten them. (Andrew Garfield did get a BAFTA for Boy A, so that's something, but it's unfortunate that it went so unnoticed Stateside.)




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Post by anonymous1980 »

Someone in another board pointed out that Whoopi Goldberg is the only black actress so far in Oscar history to manage to get more than one Oscar nomination in her career. This does not bode too well for Viola Davis and Taraji P. Henson.
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Post by Okri »

Ditto cam on Hall. While she got instant credit in the UK for being Peter Hall's daughter, I think she's great (for me I recall her most in Starter for Ten, a mediocre flick, but she showed great wit). I thought she was actually the best in Vicky Cristina Barcelona.

Franco's an obvious candidate, especially with the major kudos he got this year and buzz in general. DeWitt.... I dunno - I'm still surprised she was absolutely unable to garner any traction for RGM and am rather puzzled as to why.

The one I'm most looking forward to is Andrew Garfield. I think his performance in Boy A this year was a class unto itself and while ineligible for the Oscars (aired on British TV in 2007 before sneaking into TIFF 2007), he displayed phenomenal ability. I think dws1982 is the only other person here who's seen it, but it's an amazing performance and I'd like to think there's more good things coming from him.
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Post by flipp525 »

--cam wrote:I don't think, on the other hand, that we will see much more of Rourke--certainly not at the Oscars. He was undisciplined and crude at some award shows; he has chosen a career as a boxer(has he not?) and I can't see him in different role other than the Wrestler. I mean a romantic role in a light comedy, come on!

I actually sort of thought Rourke's no bullshit/non-Hollywood this past awards season was refreshing and actually sort of touching at some points. For an actor to be so fully exposed and not hide behind much of any facade, not play the Hollywood game (or when he really started to, bringing at least something different to the table). He's a crude, bad dude. It's just the language he speaks.

Also although I'm ecstatic that Sean Penn won for what is truly one of his best, if not the best,performance of his career, I definitely would not have thought a Rourke win would have been undeserved. Given the right role, he actually could be back. It could even be argued that he's been just as close to an Oscar nod before for his supporting performance in Sin City. It can definitely happen again, although it would seem like this year might've just been a perfect storm for him.

And, ew, Magnificent Obsession is NOT a movie I want to see remade.




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Post by cam »

Thank you Tee: the best post following an Oscar, always.

I think we will see more of Rebecca Hall( Vicki Cristina Barcelona). She had a good, meaty, and vulnerable role, and it showed she could handle a big part. And she has 4 films in 2009.

I don't think, on the other hand, that we will see much more of Rourke--certainly not at the Oscars. He was undisciplined and crude at some award shows; he has chosen a career as a boxer(has he not?) and I can't see him in different role other than the Wrestler. I mean a romantic role in a light comedy, come on!

Franco, I agree . He has a wide range of abilities--Scott Smith( Milk),Silver( Pineapple Express), Carnelli( Elah). He is in Howl! this year as Ginsberg. I want to see that one.

I hope that is the end of Jolie. I am heartily sick of seeing her at the grocery store every week, engaged in some crisis trumpeted by the Star or the Enquirer. And Brad is sort of a wuss: alright in comic parts like Burn After Reading or the Oceans films, but I am afraid I can't take him seriously as an actor. I smiled wryly at the fact that Kidman introduced Jolie in the Best Actress segment this year. I can't abide either of them.

Hathaway has showed her range, as you say. I hope she's around in serious roles for a long time, She is a real beauty. Maybe a really good chick flick--what about a remake of Magnificent Obsession?
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Post by MovieWes »

--Sonic Youth wrote:
--OscarGuy wrote:And Ledger CAN come back, though I don't think he'll win. He still has his performance in The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus to come and don't think for a second people won't be pushing him.

I'll think it, considering the film still hasn't found a distributor after all these months.

If this means the film stinks, I suspect whoever finally takes it up will give it a quiet release. And as for campaigning, I'm guessing the company will leave well enough alone.

I don't think that the movie has been completed, so that might explain why no one has picked it up yet. However, I was reading just the other day that it might not even be released in the U.S. at all.




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Post by Mister Tee »

--FilmFan720 wrote:I think James Franco, especially in the last few years, has started to set himself up to be a serious young actor who wants to tackle some more difficult roles, both comedy and drama.

Mr brain told me there was someone else in support that I was forgetting, but I was at work and unable to check background materials. I might even rank Franco above DeWitt.

Hirsch, some may recall, was proferred by many last year, but I went with McAvoy. Certainly the advantage went to Hirsch this year, on a Milk vs. Wanted basis, but both seem to be moving ahead.

Like BJ, I was a huge fan of Memento, and, while I enjoyed The Prestige and Dark Knight (Batman Begins not so much), the direction of Nolan's career has disappointed me. I think FilmFan is probably correct, that Nolan will need to sidle out of the popular genres to get Academy respect -- at least to some perceived degree, the way Cameron or Zemeckis did. God knows the 90s through 2001 were full of best directors whose main previous distinction had been making a ton of money for the industry amd who, when they changed it up, were immediately given the prize (in addition to Cameron and Zemeckis, Eastwood, Spielberg and Howard).




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Post by FilmFan720 »

--The Original BJ wrote:There's one name I think you overlooked in the bonus round category: Christopher Nolan (a nominee, true, though not in the director category.) After two DGA nominations, and a recent gazillion dollar success story, he's become that real rarity: the big-budget auteur. Obviously I don't rate his chances for the next Batman extravaganza too highly. (In fact, I've been a little disappointed in his career trajectory -- I had so loved Memento, but I didn't much care for Batman Begins at all, and though I liked The Prestige and Dark Knight, they didn't remotely approach his initial high.) But, I'd say when he returns to more Oscar-friendly subject matter, his obvious talent, ambition, and industry goodwill will grab him a Director nomination in the near future.

I think Nolan has a good shot at getting in there soon, but I think he also needs to do something not in a genre, much like the Oscar-friendly subject that BJ mentions. Nolan is still seen as a genre director, making this gritty crime dramas on both small (Memento, Insomnia) and big (Batmans, Prestige) budgets. Most of these type directors had to push out of the genre, or make a literary genre film, to finally break into the game. Hitchcock made Rebecca, Fincher made Benjamin Button, Ridley Scott made Thelma & Louise. Nolan needs to find his.

Two Best Supporting Actor contenders who I could see sneaking in. I think James Franco, especially in the last few years, has started to set himself up to be a serious young actor who wants to tackle some more difficult roles, both comedy and drama. This seems to be a trajectory that should get him into the Oscar pool soon enough...much like Ryan Gosling, Heath Ledger, Jake Gyllenhall and Anne Hathaway have been able to do in recent years. Emile Hirsch has now been on the cusp of the show for two years running, and his time seems eminent. He just needs the right role.

I think Bill Irwin has an outside chance of getting in there too. I know he wasn't talked about much seriously this year, but his career resurgence the past few years has been remarkable. Since his big Tony win for Virginia Woolf (in which he was brilliant), he has started to regarner a name for himself on the stage, on TV (his appearance on CSI this season was Emmy-worthy, and should be in a good position to win the guest award) and now on film. If he continues to get meaty roles in films, he could sneak in sometime soon.

I agree, Amy Adams is the most likely nominee this year to come back and win (and David Fincher, if he can find some strong material).




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Post by Sonic Youth »

OscarGuy wrote:And Ledger CAN come back, though I don't think he'll win. He still has his performance in The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus to come and don't think for a second people won't be pushing him.

I'll think it, considering the film still hasn't found a distributor after all these months.

If this means the film stinks, I suspect whoever finally takes it up will give it a quiet release. And as for campaigning, I'm guessing the company will leave well enough alone.




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Post by The Original BJ »

Excellent commentary, as always.

There's one name I think you overlooked in the bonus round category: Christopher Nolan (a nominee, true, though not in the director category.) After two DGA nominations, and a recent gazillion dollar success story, he's become that real rarity: the big-budget auteur. Obviously I don't rate his chances for the next Batman extravaganza too highly. (In fact, I've been a little disappointed in his career trajectory -- I had so loved Memento, but I didn't much care for Batman Begins at all, and though I liked The Prestige and Dark Knight, they didn't remotely approach his initial high.) But, I'd say when he returns to more Oscar-friendly subject matter, his obvious talent, ambition, and industry goodwill will grab him a Director nomination in the near future.

Also, if any actor these days could pick up a third acting Oscar, it's Sean Penn. I don't expect it to happen soon (if at all), but I think he's got a shot. (And he wouldn't have to part the Red Sea either -- Nicholson's third wasn't exactly for a career high.) But a late-career honor for Penn some day could happen.
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Post by OscarGuy »

I agree with most of what you said, but there are two I'd like to add to.

Robert Downey Jr. He strikes me as a new Johnny Depp. No one ever thought Depp would get a nomination despite some quirky and interesting performance. Then, he had a hit as Jack Sparrow in Pirates of the Caribbean. He broke the ice and now he's managed two relatively undeserved nominations simply because he's finally been accepted. While Downey doesn't quite fit that trajectory, after all, he got his first nomination more than a decade ago for Chaplin, but he seems to be on a similar career trajectory and I think he could end up like Depp, constantly nominated, but it still remains to be seen if either can nab a trophy.

And Ledger CAN come back, though I don't think he'll win. He still has his performance in The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus to come and don't think for a second people won't be pushing him. I don't know if he'll get nominated as no one has yet seen the film, but I wouldn't count him out entirely yet.
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Post by Mister Tee »

Okay: the year we didn’t care for, the race that didn’t excite us, the show that …well, that MOST of us liked despite all that…all have begun their fast-fade into history. From now, this year’s Oscars are something on which we will only look back. With one exception: today we take up our annual tradition of scanning the year’s nominee rolls and pondering who on the list will, a la Winslet, Cruz or Ledger, return to triumph another day. The (can you believe it) 10th annual Who’ll Be Back!

Mickey Rourke…Last week, on Charlie Rose, Rourke said were he not to win, he’d go back to work with the idea of returning next year and winning then. God bless him; as a fan from the old days, I wish him well. But I wouldn’t stake any hard-earned money on the prospect. The comeback in The Wrestler didn’t seem so much a return to previous heights of achievement, the way Brando’s Godfather and Tango did. Rather, it seemed a perfect meld of a character with Rourke’s own life situation – the bum trying one more time playing the bum trying one more time. Such a match was surely appealing to audiences and critics (and who knows how many Oscar voters). But I doubt it sets Rourke up for a run of success. Put it this way: I think his chances of winning this year were greater than those of his returning.

Frank Langella…Buzzed about last year, nominated this year, might have even had a chance to win in a more Forest Whitaker-like field – Langella would appear to have made a pretty decent entry onto the Oscar stage. But the guy’s over 70; how many roles are out there to yield major nominations for a non-stellar name? He’s an actor who more often does supporting roles; I’d say his chances of getting cited for one of those is more likely than another Nixon turning up.

Brad Pitt…Pitt will always be more a star than an actor – he’s an intelligent guy with decent taste, but he has limited talent. He may turn up on these lists occasionally, the way Tom Cruise or Will Smith has, but I don’t see him winning unless he gets Julia Roberts lucky. (Watch: he’ll be brilliant in Inglourious Basterds and prove me wrong next year).

Richard Jenkins…An honorable character actor who gets a long-shot nomination is obviously no strong candidate to return. But, as we were told the other night, his list of credits is long, and it’s always possible one of those supporting roles in which he excels will get him back to the Oscars in the years just ahead.

Sean Penn…Five nominations, none acquired via the schmooze route. You have to figure Penn has more ahead of him in his distinguished career. But after two wins, he’d have to part the Red Sea to get into the winner’s circle again.

Meryl Streep…Post-Sophie’s Choice until Adaptation, I don’t think Streep was considered much beyond a place-holder on the nominations lists. Sure, she was deserving of the citations (well, except for Music of the Heart), but, with two statuettes at home, she was deemed plenty-awarded already and thus never seriously considered for wins. That’s changed this last decade – the Adaptation performance won her a Golden Globe and likely got a significant number of Oscar votes; this year she won at SAG and the Broadcasters. Even in '06, only the Mirren juggernaut kept her out of the running -- had there been no Queen, I'd bet Streep and Dench would have fought over the trophy. Now, in retrospect, I'm happy she didn't win any of those times -- she doesn't need another supporting trophy, and Prada/Doubt were too trivial. But I believe the current feeling is, Meryl's time has come again. I look back over those lost decades and see several win-worthy performances…Cry in the Dark, Madison County, One True Thing. If she hits that level again, I say she wins in a walk.

Anne Hathaway…The initial tendency is to look at Hathaway as a Hollywood creation who's tip-toed into serious territory. But after both Brokeback and Rachel -- Bride Wars notwithstanding -- I think it's time to see her as a potential contender in the years ahead. I'm not ready to echo Shirley MacLaine's rather vernal assessment, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Hathaway back on this list in the years just ahead.

Melissa Leo…She's a middle-aged non-star, nominated for a movie few saw. Possibly I'm sour on her because I thought so little of her film; there are obviously those who claimed to see God in her performance. But I think this was likely a career tribute.

Angelina Jolie…Like Brad, a star presence who gets some meaty roles because she helps directors acquire financing. One Oscar seems plenty for someone on her level, but you never know.

Kate Winslet…As BJ said the other day, she's in the bizarre situation of having won an "at last" Oscar while she's still staggeringly young. She's a great actress -- far greater than The Reader showed, in my opinion -- and there's no reason to think she won't be back, with another, hopefully more deserved win in the future.

Robert Downey Jr….Back in a big (star) way, and a talented guy. There's a lot of industry affection for him, I believe. But it's going to take the right role in the right film -- say, a Zodiac that makes money. I hope for him, but don't view him as more than 50/50.

Josh Brolin…Not someone about whom I (or anyone) thought much two years ago -- but he's been on a hot roll and, if he continues to select wisely, he could accumulate enough points to win a prize on momentum alone. Gut instinct: he's more likely for a supporting win than a lead one.

Philip Seymour Hoffman…To the consternation of many here, he'll continue to get nominations -- mostly in support, I'd guess (real support, unlike this one). I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a two-time, split-category winner, like DeNiro, Spacey, et al.

Michael Shannon…Probably a one-off, but you never know. The visibility from this performance might inspire some high-profile director to give him a plum role.

Heath Ledger…Obviously won't be back, but will always be in our hearts.

Amy Adams…You can ditto most of the reasons why I thought she'd win this year and apply them to why I believe she'll win in the years just ahead. She's a unique presence, and a more versatile one than I initially thought. (My comment after her '05 nomination was pretty much "one-hit wonder") She's clearly being groomed for major stardom, getting all sorts of solid roles across genres. And she appears to be well-liked. I rank her first among this year's losers as winner-to-be.

Viola Davis…Davis has been a hell of an actress for some time. Her Tony-winning King Hedley II performance was almost a decade ago. She appeared in several films in 2002 -- Far from Heaven and Antoine Fisher among them. Yet many had not heard of her prior to ten weeks ago. The reason for that is the reason she might not reappear as soon as she deserves: the long-standing shortage of roles for non-glamorous black actresses. She's certainly got visibility now; let's hope she can capitalize on it with roles that let her showcase her abilities.

Taraji P. Henson…She doesn't have Davis' troubles in the glamour department. But it's still too soon to know if she's got the acting ability for the long haul. This performance was a happy surprise, and will probably keep her working for the foreseeable future. But I'm dubious she's an Oscar-type actress in the end.

Penelope Cruz…An international star for sure now, she'll keep working with Pedro and presumably with other directors anxious to cash in on her glitter-power. I'm still not sold on her as a great actress in English (I thought her Volver work was leagues ahead of Vicky Christina), but she'll surely have the chance to succeed or fail. And if it's the former, she could return to the Oscars.

Marisa Tomei…Has there ever been such a recovery? A winner so derided she gave birth to an urban legend, now holding three nominations that negate any sense she's a fluke. She still seems to work at the fringes -- her last two nominations came from films that couldn't have cost $10 million total -- so she'll always be an iffy prospect for mainstream-ism. But why not more nominations as the years go on?

David Fincher…Boy, as a long-time fan, am I glad he didn't win this year. Button became a cheap putdown in many circles, and, had he won, he'd have never heard the end of it, besmirching his reputation for a long time. This way, he's broken the Oscar ice -- and had something of a hit in the process, -- and I can root for him to return with a more representative vehicle in the near future.

Gus van Sant…Is anyone insane enough to predict the trajectory of van Sant's career? A guy who can make Elephant and Good Will Hunting, not to mention Paranoid Park and Milk in one year, is pretty clearly uncategorizable. Why not hope for him to join the parade of auteurists winning best director these days?

Stephen Daldry…That he's received three nominations for his first three films obviously creates the queasy feeling he'll one day join the winner's circle. Then again, the films haven't won much -- both best actress awards were more career tributes to their winners than a product of the films. Let's hope Daldry is like Peter Weir -- dependably, dully respectable enough to chip off a sliver of the voters and get nominations, but never strong enough to win.

Ron Howard…It's already too much! But he once in a while works in the adult mainstream, whence come most of the nominees, so don't bet against him turning up again. Another win? A very long shot.

Danny Boyle…Since Boyle would have been way down on my list of those ever likely to win an Oscar, it's hard for me to handicap him. But he's clearly an A-lister now, he's got real talent, and many first-time-winning directors have returned with nominations. He's got a shot.

Focus Features…Yeah, not what I usually discuss. But, damn -- it really doesn't seem fair that Searchlight, home of Full Monty, Little Miss Sunshine and Juno, should take home a best picture prize before Polygram/USA/Focus, which has kept the high-profile indie alive better than anyone in the past decade. Let's root for them to win real soon.

Finally, the bonus round -- the buzzed-about-but-not-nominated-this-time person who looks prime to qualify a year or three down the line. Many of the top-category contenders don't qualify because they're already nomination-veterans -- DiCaprio, Eastwood, Scott Thomas, Blanchett. I haven't seen Sally Hawkins, but wonder if she was a bit too singular a candidate (one a lot of folks obviously disliked as much as others liked her). So, I drop down to the supporting crew and spotlight Rosemary DeWitt -- hoping she's luckier down the line than she was this year.




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