The Statistics

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OscarGuy
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Post by OscarGuy »

While I won't share my actual percentages and full board of figures, I've been doing some statistical work comparing Oscar Winners and various factors and the first set that I will be able to publish within the next week or so is based on the categories a film is nominated for and it wins how likely it is to win Best Picture historically.

Most Required Nominations to Win Best Picture:
1. Best Director
2. Best Editing
3. Best Writing
4. Best Acting
5. Best Lead Actor

Most Required Wins to Win Best Picture:
1. Best Director
2. Best Writing
3. Best Acting
4. Best Editing
5. Best Score

Least Likely Nominations to Win Best Picture:
1. Best Foreign Film
2. Best Song
3. Best Sound Effects
4. Best Visual Effects
5. Best Lead Actress

Least Likely Wins to Win Best Picture:
1. Best Foreign Film
2. Best Song
3. Best Sound Effects
4. Best Visual Effects
5. Best Lead Actress

If you're a Best Picture winner and you get a nomination in one of these categories, you are more likely to also win this award
1. Best Visual Effects
2. Best Director
3. Best Writing
4. Best Acting
5. Best Art Direction

If you're a Best Picture winner and you get a nomination in one of these categories, don't expect to also win this award
1. Best Supporting Actor
2. Best Makeup
3. Best Lead Actress
4. Best Supporting Actress
5. Best Cinematography

Some very interesting figures. Although Best Picture winners rarely have Visual Effects as one of its nominated categories, every film that has ever been nominated for visual effects and won best picture also won visual effects.

The Lead Actor trophy is propping up the Acting categories for wins as the others aren't producing a lot of corresponding wins.

Now, I'm forced to remember back to when I suggested that Best Picture needed an Editing nomination to win and remarked Brokeback Mountain didn't have one. Now we know why that was such a significant figure.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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