The 18th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Reza
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Re: The 18th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by Reza »

anonymous1980 wrote:My take on it:

Huppert - I'm leaning towards no but will probably get an Honorary down the line.
Is the Academy magnanimous enough to recognise foreign actors for the honorary? They have given it to foreigners - in the technical field -:but never to an actor. There are so many out there who deserve it.
Last edited by Reza on Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
anonymous1980
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Re: The 18th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by anonymous1980 »

My take on it:

Affleck - Hmm. I don't know. That sexual assault charge would have to die down significantly or he gets a role as good if not better than Manchester.
Garfield - I lean towards yes and may probably win someday.
Gosling - Yes. And he'll probably win someday.
Mortensen - He makes such idiosyncratic choices in his roles so the fact he's been nominated twice is a surprise. So I'm going with "maybe".
Washington - Yes and he'll probably win a third.

Huppert - I'm leaning towards no but will probably get an Honorary down the line.
Negga - It's tough for black actresses to come back. Depends on her choices.
Portman - Probably. But I don't think she'll win again.
Stone - She'll come back a few times but she won't win again.
Streep - No. JUST KIDDING. She's coming back and she'll win her fourth.

Ali - He feels like a one and done actor to me. But who knows?
Bridges - Maybe. But he won't win again, I don't think.
Hedges - Tough to say with him since he's young. It all depends on how his career pans out.
Patel - I'm leaning towards no but not impossible.
Shannon - I think he might win someday....in LEAD.

Davis - Yes. And she'll win in lead. If there's a black actress out there who can win two Oscars, it's probably her.
Harris - Leaning towards no but again, who knows?
Kidman - Probably a couple of more times but she won't win again.
Spencer - Now that she's come back after winning, only time will tell if this wasn't a fluke.
Williams - Yes, and she may win someday.
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Re: The 18th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by Okri »

Some random thoughts on this subject

a) I think Stone is closer to Lawrence territory than Paltrow. I don’t quite understand how Paltrow’s career frittered away after 1998, though. Stone is obviously not at the same superstar level as Lawrence, but her future film roles look exciting enough.

b) Conversely, I don’t think Michelle Williams is THAT close to an Oscar win. She couldn’t even tussle with the Viola freight train and I don’t think she’s ever really been in the win conversation, save arguably Brokeback Mountain. I do wonder with performers who are more easily viewed through the lens of “supporting” if it’s just harder to accrue career points to get that win

c) Given how much I enjoy Garfield, I’m rooting for him. The Spider-Man years really took him away when he might have been interesting.

d) I have seen Negga’s work in TV and find her watchable but nothing more.

e) Tee, I’m surprised that you didn’t mention Janelle Monae. She got lots of positive notices for both best picture nominees and the fact that the performances were so different from sci-fi/afro-punk persona as a musician I think aids her. While I think Edgerton is probably the safety “prediction” I think Monae could surprise soon.

f) Both Villenueve and Larrain got their AMPAS breakthrough in the foreign film category, for Incendies and No respectively, so they’ve got that in common\
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Re: The 18th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by ITALIANO »

The way I see it...

Casey Affleck - won't be nominated again
Andrew Garfield - could be nominated again, won't win
Ryan Gosling - will be nominated again, will win
Viggo Mortensen - won't be nominated again
Denzel Washington - will be nominated again, will win

Emma Stone - will be nominated again, won't win
Isabelle Huppert - won't be nominated again
Ruth Negga - won't be nominated again
Natalie Portman - could be nominated again, won't win
Meryl Streep - will be nominated again, will win

Mahershala Ali - could be nominated again, won't win
Jeff Bridges - will be nominated again, could win
Lucas Hedges - won't be nominated again
Dev Patel - won't be nominated again
Michael Shannon - will be nominated again, could win

Viola Davis - will be nominated again, could win
Naomie Harris - won't be nominated again
Nicole Kidman - won't be nominated again
Octavia Spencer - won't be nominated again
Michelle Williams - will be nominated again, will win

But then - who knows?
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Re: The 18th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by Big Magilla »

It's funny, but I was going to cite Alden Ehrenreich, too. I was trying to think of someone else who wasn't yet mentioned, so it wouldn't be just a one actor comment, but I couldn't come up with anyone else.

He did receive some critics' awards recognition for Hail, Caesar! and Rules Don't Apply, so hopefully his Oscar notice will come, but he's been on the verge of major stardom for some time. Besides the Han Solo casting and the almost-casting for Amazing Spider-Man, he had two strong supporting roles as Vincent Gallo's brother in Francis Ford Coppola's Tetro and as Cate Blanchett's stepson in Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine.
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Re: The 18th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by danfrank »

I would name Alden Ehrenreich as well. Had he been nominated he would have been my easy choice for supporting actor this year. And though he's been nominated twice for dramatic roles, I would love to see Ehrenreich's "would that it were so simple" sparring partner, Ralph Fiennes, nominated for a comedic performance in the future. I thought he was brilliant in Budapest Hotel and proved that his comedic talent was no fluke in Hail, Caesar! Given the Academy's historic reluctance to honor such performances I'm not predicting it necessarily, just hoping for it. My prediction among this year's crop as most likely to someday win an Oscar is Michelle Williams, who is not only very talented but consistently chooses interesting roles in films with strong directors.
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Re: The 18th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by FilmFan720 »

Mister Tee, thanks as always for this. Always a highlight.

For the bonus round, I would cite Garth Davis as a director who I imagine is going to start getting prime material (this year he has a Mary Magdalene biopic) and could be back very soon.

As far as actors, I will avoid my annual "What the Hell Does Emily Blunt Have to Do to Get an Oscar Nomination?" and submit a name that was on the very fringe of the Supporting Actor race: Alden Ehrenreich. He got stellar notices for Hail, Caesar! and with the new Han Solo film seems primed to move into household name very quickly. If he continues to push himself as an actor, and can get into a prestige film more acclaimed than Caesar or Rules Don't Apply, I imagine he will be a nominee in no time.
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Re: The 18th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by bizarre »

Mister Tee wrote: Back in the 20s, as Abie’s Irish Rose ran on and on, the person doing The New Yorker’s capsule summaries of shows running on Broadway became so tired of coming up with something new to say about it that they resorted to near-nonsense phrases. I’m getting near the same point with Meryl Streep, about whom I‘ve of course written way more than anyone else for this series. Three Oscar nominations is a good career total for most – it’s what Michelle Pfeiffer and Debra Winger have -- and it’s what Streep has accumulated, in almost throwaway fashion, since her third win only five years ago. Someday this run will stop…but a lot of people are going to go broke waiting for it. And, yes: given this seemingly endless run, the fourth Oscar can’t be ruled out.
There's a funny - and spot-on - Tweet that went viral last year about Meryl's career progression:
Meryl's filmography:
'70s: Icy divorcees
'80s: Devastated people with accents
'90s: Salt of the Earth
2000s-now: You won't believe this wig
A note on the Mahershala Ali front - I think there's an open niche in Hollywood for more auteurially-minded black leading men who are 1) not playing whitewashed, monotonously likable roles à la Will Smith and 2) not the still-bankable but aging Denzel Washington, who regardless of whether he's playing 'good guys' or 'bad guys' tends to do it in safe, unquestionably accessible movies. Think 'the Joaquin Phoenix role' in an industry more prepared than ever to greenlight interesting films about black issues. I think Ali has the goods - talent, looks, maturity and mercurial castability (see his street-saint role in "Moonlight" versus his Shakespearean, tortured villain in "Marvel's Luke Cage") - to take on this mantle, so we'll see what his next few steps are.
Mister Tee wrote: Barry Jenkins came from nowhere to essentially the top in a few months. Anyone daring to predict his future is just stabbing in the dark. Based on Moonlight – because, what else is there? – he’s a gifted director who works very well with actors. Where that will lead will be based on the choices he now makes – from, one presumes, a reasonably ample menu.
I first became aware of Jenkins after seeing his debut film "Medicine for Melancholy", a 2008 release that I watched in 2010. It's really quite fantastic - something of a black "Before Sunrise" that examines highly political issues in a way that manages to be both breezily warm fun and a serious, thought-provoking exploration of contemporary black identity with a fascinating, challenging stylistic detachment to it. It's also very well-shot and acted by Wyatt Cenac and Tracey Heggins.
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Re: The 18th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by bizarre »

I'm not sure any of the first-time nominees from this year will be back - Garfield probably most likely, to my mind, but he's still hard to cast. That said, he already has an interesting project lined up for this year - "Under the Silver Lake", a neo-noir from David Robert Mitchell - as well as a less-interesting but possibly bankable one, "Breathe".

Isabelle Huppert clearly loved the attention of this awards season, so who knows, but I can't see her retooling her career choices in the least. Though if something like "The Piano Teacher" comes up her road to a nomination would be a lot cleaner now than it was back in 2002.

Negga is a good actress, but I don't see her getting the kind of showcase roles that will sweep her back in.

Harris' career has always been odd and I think the same thing applies here - a pretty, spunky actress that for some reason just doesn't get offered leads.

Hedges is a question mark - watching him (and I liked his performance a lot) he seems a lot like one of those oddball 90s indie talents that just never got the right industry support: James Urbaniak, Martin Donovan, Jason Patric et al. Remains to be seen where his career goes in this more democratised industry, that is of course if he continues to act past his early 20s.

Patel proved himself as a talent worth casting in Lion - and he was already treated as a token - but good roles for actors of South Asian descent are still not exactly up for grabs.

Ali is another question mark. His career is on the rise and 2016 was a boon for his name recognition. He's already getting offered roles in promising prestige pictures - "The Personal History of Rachel DuPree", for instance - so we'll see.

Otherwise - sure bets are Portman, Stone, Streep, Davis, Williams, Kidman, Washington and Gosling, possibly even Shannon and Mortensen too. Spencer has turned into a stalwart character actress in good demand in a way that no one would have expected after her win in 2011, and Bridges will probably be able to mine career goodwill until he dies. "Manchester by the Sea" was clearly not made to be Oscar bait and Affleck will never be a "star", a mainstream acting institution or even a crossover sensation like Joaquin Phoenix, and though he ultimately won this season brought the allegations against him to light in a way that will damage his immediate prospects in a Hollywood newly sensitive to these kinds of matters, so I don't expect him to be nominated again. Though it's clear he'll continue doing interesting and noteworthy work outside of the system.

Chazelle's about-face from a fascinating maverick auteur to an Oscar-hungry Alexander Payne type is a foregone conclusion, so he'll be back - it's hard to see how the same person who made the joyous, unpredictable, elemental miniature "Guy and Madeline on a Park Bench" could make the accomplished but mechanical "La La Land". Villeneuve, too, will be back, and probably soon. He's gunning for new-era James Cameron-type recognition and prestige. Jenkins surely didn't expect "Moonlight" to pull this off, and he develops and works slowly, so watch this space. Same goes for Lonergan, though he was already Oscar-sanctioned despite brilliant, avant-garde follies like "Margaret" so whenever his next project goes into the works it'll be worth keeping an eye on it in the Oscar conversation. I think the Academy realised immediately that inviting Gibson back into the fold was bad PR. Apart from that, his demographic is dying off and in the new political order his slate of upcoming projects - such as the charmingly-titled "Dragged Across Concrete", a 'buddy cop' movie with Vince Vaughn about police brutality told from the perspective of the misunderstood policemen - are things the Academy are going to want to avoid like the plague.
Last edited by bizarre on Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
anonymous1980
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Re: The 18th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by anonymous1980 »

Thanks for the good read, Mister Tee! I love these!
Mister Tee wrote:
Lucas Hedges was talking the other night about going back to school – but, in the meantime, he’s got two interesting-sounding films already shot, and reports are he’s excellent in the play he’s doing off-Broadway. All of which is to say, we’ll have to see whether he really resumes his education, or decides to strike while his career-iron is hot. The Oscar future for adolescent nominees hasn’t been especially bright overall, but maybe he’s a Jodie Foster in the making.
I think a more apt comparison to Lucas Hedges is Leonardo DiCaprio who was a year younger than Hedges when he got his first nomination. This of course led to a stellar career culminating to a win two decades later. Or it could be a one-and-done like Timothy Hutton (though Hutton won, his career turned out to be more like a journey man character actor rather than a movie star like Leo.)
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Re: The 18th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by taki15 »

And that marks the official end of another Oscar season. Thank you Mister Tee for undertaking such a painstakingly detailed project year after year.
I must confess that I was awaiting your analysis with almost the same excitement I had for the ceremony.
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The 18th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by Mister Tee »

Well, this year’s a bit different from the last several. In those years just past, by the time I got around to posting this annual thread, people had fully moved on, generally in apathy, from the presentations. This year, this buzz feels like it’ll linger a long time (Mark Harris referred Thursday to his Daily Rewatch of the Last Five Minutes). I hate to interrupt that, but, as per tradition, it’s time for our look at the prospects for this year’s also-rans (or never-were’s) to return at some point in greater glory. The 18th Annual Who’ll Be Back.

Just for perspective: in the first such thread, after the 1999 show, we discussed the future prospects of un-Oscared folk like Russell Crowe, Sean Penn and Julianne Moore. We wondered if Denzel Washington would ever win a SECOND Oscar. We dealt with the even-still-unrewarded Annette Bening (and Tom Cruise, if you like). We thought Jude Law was poised for a stellar career. And we wondered if Meryl Streep, who had just set an all-time record of 13 nods (for her most universally reviled entry, Music of the Heart) would now slip silently into the wings – ha!

My feeling is, none of this year’s nominees benefitted more in the Oscar-futures market than Ryan Gosling, if only for getting himself back to where he seemed headed ten years ago. Gosling has had an odd trajectory in that period since his Half Nelson nomination. At first, he seemed to compete annually for additional nods, but fall just short, despite nominations from SAG (Lars and the Real Girl) or for his co-star (Blue Valentine). He had an unlucky 2011, where two projects – The Ides of March and Drive – finished out of the Oscar money despite scattered support. Then he latched onto awards non-starters like Only God Forgives and The Place Beyond the Pines. None of these projects had the stench of disgrace attached (Gangster Squad did, but wreaked no permanent damage on him or Emma Stone), but a sense began to set in of a career not quite living up to expectations. The past two years, though, have changed that mightily, with both The Big Short and La La Land contending strongly for best picture (in fact, both winning PGA), and even The Nice Guys, commercially a flop, awakening people to Gosling’s comic abilities. (Anyone think Warners wishes it were releasing that movie now, in the wake of La La Land, rather than last Spring?) His future schedule includes an imminent Terence Malick movie (which apparently required an Oscar nomination just to be cast), a reunion with Chazelle playing Neil Armstrong, and Villeneuve’s Blade Runner 2049, the rare blockbuster/reboot in which even I have interest. There’s of course no telling if any particular career hits the sweet spot that leads to an Oscar – for every DiCaprio or Viola Davis who found their time, there’s a Michelle Pfeiffer who didn’t – but I’d say at this point Gosling has moved himself back into the category of heading for an award someday.

There were scattered reports of Viggo Mortensen getting support this year – from those Hollywood Reporter Brutally Honest Voters, which you can discount, but also from good reporters like Mark Harris. This surprised me a bit, because I hadn’t thought of Mortensen as having established much identity in Hollywood. However, he’s been around for over 30 years now, and, though his two nominations are from films that virtually no one has seen, he’s appeared in considerably more prominent projects (Lord of the Rings of course above all, but also A History of Violence, that SHOULD have got him cited), and maybe, if he lucks into a film with higher visibility, he’s a prospect for return.

I was so unhappy over Andrew Garfield’s exclusion in 2010 that I feel bad for begrudging him his success this year – I really wasn’t impressed with either his nominated performance or his supplementary credit in Silence; both struck me as fairly callow work. This makes me very dubious about a return, quick or otherwise. However: he’s got some interesting projects upcoming, including a handicapped/therefore-Oscar-bait role, so we’ll keep an eye on him.

Denzel Washington, when he deigns to do serious work, obviously still holds appeal for the voters – two nominations since 2010 after nothing post his 2001 win. I was in the group that felt getting to the magical three-win level was going to be hard for him, especially with such a critically-adorned opponent. But it’s quite possible this perceived-narrow loss will help him in a contest down the road. He still spends too great a percentage of his time doing trash, but the solid reputation with which he began his career can sometimes re-emerge, and the right role could push him into the Oscar stratosphere.

Casey Affleck would never have topped my list of actors likely to win a top-line Oscar, and, as delighted as I am for him to have won despite that, I have to take the same stance toward his ever making a return. His taste has always run to the fringe – the weirder van Sant films, the infamous I’m Still Here -- and his future schedule doesn’t suggest he’s breaking free of that. He is, however, now indisputably a gifted actor, and sometimes talent will rise to the surface regardless. So, perhaps he’ll be back, though I’d guess only sporadically.

The way the best actress slate worked out this year, I don’t think anyone gained more ground for a future race than the omitted Amy Adams. Some might argue Annette Bening as well, but her film wasn’t as big a deal ($5 million vs. 100, 1 nomination vs. 8 ), and she didn’t get the focus for being left off that Adams did. Not that anyone with five nominations already under her belt needed much boost, but, with so many of Adams’ citations having been in support, this credit gave her added credibility as a leading lady who can carry a film – as well as causing a significant number of people to speak up in her behalf. Those people, once aroused, are likely to be by her side in the future. Adams’ immediate upcoming schedule is on the light side – another Superman film and a sequel to Enchanted – but it’s seems likely she’ll soon be back working with another auteur. So, watch out: her time is not far off.

Isabelle Huppert is not quite Charlotte Rampling – she’s bit younger, anyway -- so this late-career attention is less surely a one-off. But the future Oscar prognosis is still roughly the same: it took massive critical focus to put the long-time legend into contention, and it’s hard to imagine those circumstances repeating themselves barring an extraordinary performance in an event movie. It’s easy to root for such a return to come about – especially seeing how much Huppert enjoyed the awards-whirl – but it’d be more than optimistic to expect such a thing.

I really thought Natalie Portman was over-feted for Black Swan, so her excellence in Jackie caught me utterly by surprise. It’s a shame a performance as good as this had to slip into instant also-ran status, essentially for political/two-wins-would-be-too-much reasons. I’m utterly at a loss as to what this outcome will mean to her future. On the one hand, it’s unlikely she’ll ever top her Jackie work, and perhaps one Oscar will be seen as enough of a life reward for her (the way Julie Christie’s is, despite her surprise loss in ‘07). Or, alternative scenario: if she does manage to hit the high note again sometime, this loss will give everyone a rationale for voting for her once again (as, say, they did for deHavilland in ’49 after passing on her in ’48). We’ll watch and see.

I’m not familiar with any of Ruth Negga’s apparently extensive television work, nor do I remember her from any movies I’ve seen (like World War Z). Loving is my only real exposure to her, and I find it difficult to judge her based on that. She has a lovely presence, but the role didn’t give her much of anything to do. So, for me, she’s a near-total blank, and I have officially no opinion on her future.

Back in the 20s, as Abie’s Irish Rose ran on and on, the person doing The New Yorker’s capsule summaries of shows running on Broadway became so tired of coming up with something new to say about it that they resorted to near-nonsense phrases. I’m getting near the same point with Meryl Streep, about whom I‘ve of course written way more than anyone else for this series. Three Oscar nominations is a good career total for most – it’s what Michelle Pfeiffer and Debra Winger have -- and it’s what Streep has accumulated, in almost throwaway fashion, since her third win only five years ago. Someday this run will stop…but a lot of people are going to go broke waiting for it. And, yes: given this seemingly endless run, the fourth Oscar can’t be ruled out.

Emma Stone probably got this too early in life – she only really ascended to “being taken seriously” two years ago, with Birdman, and, though I did note in that year’s survey that she might be the sort of young pretty thing Oscar could take to, I wouldn’t have expected it so soon. Her next few years/projects – playing Billie Jean King, and working with Lanthimos -- will be important as far as establishing ongoing seriousness. I do think she’s a GOOD actress – La La Land may not have offered her a great role, but she brought quite a bit to it – and she’s of course enormously likable. So, I’ll be rooting for her, and watching with interest. A second win, though?: unlikely – no previous princess has managed one.

Michael Shannon has the unique/probably unenviable distinction of having now been singled out for acting nominations from films that failed as Oscar bait because most people hated them. I guess that’s a sign that people are especially high on Shannon’s personal work (his TV Boardwalk Empire performance presumably made him fans, as well), but I’m not sure what that points to as an Oscar future. He works a lot – he’s got more credits in the can than just about anyone else from this year’s list – so maybe at some point he’ll luck into a popular project that gets him onstage for the win.

Dev Patel has managed to hang around after his Slumdog breakthrough – mostly by doing those Marigold movies -- but is now starting to be taken more seriously. He’s got a movie about the Mumbai terror attack coming up, which is certainly something that could catch the Academy’s eye. I don’t see anything in Patel that screams Future Oscar Winner, but I’m open to the possibility of further attention.

Lucas Hedges was talking the other night about going back to school – but, in the meantime, he’s got two interesting-sounding films already shot, and reports are he’s excellent in the play he’s doing off-Broadway. All of which is to say, we’ll have to see whether he really resumes his education, or decides to strike while his career-iron is hot. The Oscar future for adolescent nominees hasn’t been especially bright overall, but maybe he’s a Jodie Foster in the making.

Jeff Bridges is just a marvel. His career had been ambling along through the 90s and 00s, seemingly miles from Oscar territory (his random nod for The Contender was his only citation in a 25-year period). Now, suddenly, he’s been to the big show three times in eight years, and even his career-win for Crazy Heart did nothing to stop his fellow actors nominating him again and again. He’s still relatively young, and could end up a sleeper candidate for accumulating one of the highest nomination totals of his era. Even another win, in the proper circumstance, isn’t out of the question.

Am I alone in not having heard of Mahershala Ali till four months ago? I haven’t watched House of Cards, so I have no idea about his range. Winning at such an early point in one’s career– jumping from anonymity to the top – can be a bit of a jinx, and, despite the current push for diversity, it’s conceivable Ali could be hampered by a lack of opportunity. But he seems to be a good, charismatic actor, so let’s wait and see.

Michelle Williams is the only rival Amy Adams has in the “how many times can we be nominated without a win?” category. She’s now up to a remarkable four nominations in 12 years, and she’s had rather bad luck with many of them – Brokeback fell out of favor during the voting period, costing her a winnable race; My Week with Marilyn actually won her a bunch of the phony-critics’ awards, but was early-eliminated from the two-way face-off between Streep and Davis; and this year she was the true critics’ champ, but fell to Davis’ far larger role. Maybe we should think of it as a round-robin: first Streep tops Davis, with Williams in third; the Davis wins, with Williams second…meaning it’s Williams’ turn next time around. She certainly continues to get herself involved with interesting projects: she’s got a Todd Haynes movie up next, and a P.T. Barnum project with Hugh Jackman…plus it looks as if she might win the race to play Janis Joplin on-screen. All signs point to her being a future winner.

Naomie Harris has been around a long time without particularly distinguishing herself, and, while this sudden recognition certainly won’t do her any harm, I’m not sure it can change the general trajectory of her career. Opinion of her performance was very divided – not a few seemed to find her utterly fraudulent. But she obviously had enough support for nominations throughout the season, and general Moonlight love could help her find other strong roles just ahead. My instinct is to see her as a one-off, but who knows?

Nicole Kidman seemed to get as much attention for her odd clapping Sunday night as she did for her performance this year. Her career baffles me these days. Ten years ago, she seemed at the center of the industry; I thought she’d be a prime Oscar contender year after year. But she’s chosen offbeat projects, too many of which (Fur, Margot at the Wedding) haven’t paid off, or have barely been released – which has moved her so far down the list that this nomination almost amounts to a comeback. For the record, she continues to sign on for adventurous projects: films with Lanthimos, Sofia Coppola and John Cameron Mitchell lie just ahead. We’ll see if they serve her better than her ‘00s slate.

I said of Octavia Spencer, when she won in 2011, that I thought she was a smart lady who might do a good job developing projects – and, boy, did she. Hidden Figures is a huge Hollywood story: a film fronted by three black women, with no action plot and barely any romance to sell it, that breaks out to be a $170 million grosser? The Oscar nod for Spencer is almost a side-dish here. What she’s done is establish herself as a power, likely for years to come. Which will make her an Oscar presence as producer and, why not?, actress as well.

Viola Davis holds the pitifully small record for individual nominations by a black actress (three). The question now is, does the academy, having given her the prize, view that as the end of the road, or will she continue to accumulate nods befitting her position as one of the most highly regarded actresses in Hollywood? (I recognize, she wouldn’t be granted that title around here.) Right now, of course, she’s got her TV series keeping her somewhat occupied, but she’s also working on Steve McQueen’s new project, with plans to play Harriet Tubman. I’d say the heavy bet is to expect her back, and maybe plan on her winning the lead category at some point.

Denis Villeneuve is one I get to brag about: I called last year that he was going to make the full leap to Oscar recognition sometime soon. Even I couldn’t have expected it this quickly, or to this extent: 8 nominations, including the glamour slots, is full-on entry. It’ll be fascinating to see where he goes next. Immediately ahead is, of course, the Blade Runner movie, which is full of possibilities – the original film is both beloved and somewhat misremembered (many probably couldn’t tell you if they saw the studio version or the Ridley Scott preferred cut), and, given the 35-year gap, I’d say Villeneuve has the freedom to do just about what he wants with it. After that…I’ll be interested to see what sort of projects he picks; whether he hews close to genre (most of his work has had some sort of thriller aspect) or strikes out into fresh territory. In any event, I expect to see him on these lists again.

Barry Jenkins came from nowhere to essentially the top in a few months. Anyone daring to predict his future is just stabbing in the dark. Based on Moonlight – because, what else is there? – he’s a gifted director who works very well with actors. Where that will lead will be based on the choices he now makes – from, one presumes, a reasonably ample menu.

Kenneth Lonergan surely won’t turn into a regular presence at the Oscars; he spends too much time working on his scripts and plays to be truly prolific. But this commercial breakthrough should insure no near-term film of his is butchered the way Margaret initially was. He’s an elegant writer, with enough film sense that I hope we can count on at least a few of his films making a showing in the decade or two just ahead.

I don’t really much feel like talking about Mel Gibson. He’s never been my kind of director, but his niche audience ensures that he’ll always retain a following. I’m not really sure how he made it onto this year’s list, so I’ll hold off on making any prediction about his future.

Damien Chazelle might just have lucked out the other night: full-on La La backlash may have been aborted by that loss at the finish line. My mixed reaction to Chazelle’s work is already on the record: I found Whiplash as wildly over-rated as any recent film…but I think La La Land was a work of real if not fully matured talent. I imagine he’ll have a target on his back with his next project – anyone so quickly built up is sure to be hit with flak – but I’m more interested in where he goes next than I would have been a year ago.

Since I basically inaugurated a directors’ bonus round with Villeneuve last year, let me offer up Pablo Larain, the director of my favorite film of 2016, as someone I’ll look to see turn up with Oscar efforts in years to come.

The more traditional bonus round for actors is difficult to play this year. Many of the didn’t-quite-make-it crowd are either previous nominees (Adams, Bening) or actors for whom I don’t have much enthusiasm (Adam Driver, Ben Foster). I suppose some might opt for LA runner-up Rebecca Hall, or oft-mentioned Greta Gerwig. I‘d put in personal notes for the Indignation pair, Tracy Letts and Linda Emond. Of those who truly seemed in the running, maybe the strongest would be Joel Edgerton. But I’m going to stretch the definition just a tad this year, and go for one of the un-cited Moonlight guys. It’s a tough competition among them, but I’m going to cite Andre Holland as most promising for a future Academy appearance.
Last edited by Mister Tee on Sat Mar 04, 2017 7:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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