Big Magilla wrote:One more thing. If we're going to do this, we should do it after we finish the screenplay discussions which will continue shortly. People need time to brush up on the potential nominees.
Absolutely - just putting it forward as a suggestion and happy to proceed with it whenever it's convenient for the forum. I haven't seen many of the lower-profile films nominated in these years but reading the archived reviews from the NYTimes et al is illuminating as to the general conversation at the time (especially for the silent years when supporting roles weren't "featured" in the way they were later in the 30s).
Happy to leave all nominations as is in cases like Morgan and Tone's - but happy to, in line with the "contemporisation" of the categories, ignore the star system to a reasonable extent (such as for the debut roles of what were at the time ingénue actresses such as Joan Crawford or actors that bridged the star-character divide such as Marie Dressler) when it comes to theorising the recipients of the 'missing' nominations.
As it stands, this is what we would be working towards:
1927
BEST ACTOR:
Automatic Nomination - Emil Jannings (The Way of All Flesh)
Automatic Nomination - Richard Barthelmess (The Patent Leather Kid)
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
BEST ACTRESS:
DECIDE UPON Automatic Nomination - Janet Gaynor in either "7th Heaven" or "Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans"
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
DETERMINE 5 MOST LIKELY NOMINEES IN:
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
DETERMINE WINNERS IN EACH CATEGORY
* from films with a 1927 release date only
1928
BEST ACTOR:
NO DETERMINATION PROCESS - VOTING FOR WINNER FROM THIS SELECTION:
Automatic Nomination - Emil Jannings (The Last Command)
Automatic Nomination - Richard Barthelmess (The Noose)
Automatic Nomination - Warner Baxter (In Old Arizona)
Automatic Nomination - Lewis Stone (The Patriot)
Automatic Nomination - Charlie Chaplin (The Circus)
BEST ACTRESS:
Automatic Nomination - Janet Gaynor (Street Angel)
Automatic Nomination - Louise Dresser (A Ship Comes In)
Automatic Nomination - Gloria Swanson (Sadie Thompson)
Automatic Nomination - Betty Compson (The Barker)
+ TBD nominee
DETERMINE 5 MOST LIKELY NOMINEES IN:
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
DETERMINE WINNERS IN EACH CATEGORY
* from films with a 1928 release date only
1929
BEST ACTOR:
DETERMINE 5 MOST LIKELY NOMINEES FROM THIS SELECTION:
George Bancroft (Thunderbolt)
Chester Morris (Alibi)
Paul Muni (The Valiant)
Ronald Colman (Condemned)*
Ronald Colman (Bulldog Drummond)*
George Arliss (Disraeli)
Maurice Chevalier (The Love Parade)
* only one of these Colman performances may ultimately be nominated if either or both are determined to be likely nominees
BEST ACTRESS:
DETERMINE 5 MOST LIKELY NOMINEES FROM THIS SELECTION:
Mary Pickford (Coquette)
Ruth Chatterton (Madame X)
Jeanne Eagels (The Letter)
Corinne Griffith (The Divine Lady)
Bessie Love (The Broadway Melody)
Norma Shearer (Their Own Desire)
Gloria Swanson (The Trespasser)
DETERMINE 5 MOST LIKELY NOMINEES IN:
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
DETERMINE WINNERS IN EACH CATEGORY
* from films with a 1929 release date only
1930
BEST ACTOR:
NO DETERMINATION PROCESS - VOTING FOR WINNER FROM THIS SELECTION:
Automatic Nomination - Fredric March (The Royal Family of Broadway)
Automatic Nomination - George Arliss (The Green Goddess)
Automatic Nomination - Lawrence Tibbett (The Rogue Song)
Automatic Nomination - Maurice Chevalier (The Big Pond)
Automatic Nomination - Wallace Beery (The Big House)
BEST ACTRESS:
DETERMINE 5 MOST LIKELY NOMINEES FROM THIS SELECTION:
Ann Harding (Holiday)
Greta Garbo (Anna Christie)
Greta Garbo (Romance)
Marie Dressler (Min and Bill)
Marlene Dietrich (Morocco)
Nancy Carroll (The Devil's Holiday)
Norma Shearer (The Divorcee)
Ruth Chatterton (Sarah and Son)
DETERMINE 5 MOST LIKELY NOMINEES IN:
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
DETERMINE WINNERS IN EACH CATEGORY
* from films with a 1930 release date only
1931
BEST ACTOR:
DETERMINE 5 MOST LIKELY NOMINEES FROM THIS SELECTION:
Adolphe Menjou (The Front Page)
Alfred Lunt (The Guardsman)
Fredric March (Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde)
Jackie Cooper (Skippy)
Lionel Barrymore (A Free Soul)
Richard Dix (Cimarron)
Wallace Beery (The Champ)
BEST ACTRESS:
Automatic Nomination - Helen Hayes (The Sin of Madelon Claudet)
Automatic Nomination - Irene Dunne (Cimarron)
Automatic Nomination - Lynn Fontanne (The Guardsman)
Automatic Nomination - Norma Shearer (A Free Soul)
+ TBD nominee
DETERMINE 5 MOST LIKELY NOMINEES IN:
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
DETERMINE WINNERS IN EACH CATEGORY
* from films with a 1931 release date only
1932
BEST ACTOR:
Automatic Nomination - Paul Muni (I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang)
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
BEST ACTRESS:
Automatic Nomination - Marie Dressler (Emma)
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
DETERMINE 5 MOST LIKELY NOMINEES IN:
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
DETERMINE WINNERS IN EACH CATEGORY
* from films with a 1932 release date only
1933
BEST ACTOR:
Automatic Nomination - Charles Laughton (The Private Life of Henry VIII)
Automatic Nomination - Leslie Howard (Berkeley Square)
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
BEST ACTRESS:
Automatic Nomination - Diana Wynyard (Cavalcade)
Automatic Nomination - Katharine Hepburn (Morning Glory)
Automatic Nomination - May Robson (Lady for a Day)
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
DETERMINE 5 MOST LIKELY NOMINEES IN:
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
DETERMINE WINNERS IN EACH CATEGORY
* from films with a 1933 release date only
1934
BEST ACTOR:
Automatic Nomination - Clark Gable (It Happened One Night)
Automatic Nomination - Frank Morgan (The Affairs of Cellini)
Automatic Nomination - William Powell (The Thin Man)
+ TBD nominee
+ TBD nominee
BEST ACTRESS:
Automatic Nomination - Bette Davis (Of Human Bondage)
Automatic Nomination - Claudette Colbert (It Happened One Night)
Automatic Nomination - Grace Moore (One Night of Love)
Automatic Nomination - Norma Shearer (The Barretts of Wimpole Street)
+ TBD nominee
DETERMINE 5 MOST LIKELY NOMINEES IN:
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
DETERMINE WINNERS IN EACH CATEGORY
* from films with a 1934 release date only
1935
BEST ACTOR:
NO CHANGE TO RESULTS
Automatic Nominee - Charles Laughton (Mutiny on the Bounty)
Automatic Nominee - Clark Gable (Mutiny on the Bounty)
Automatic Nominee - Franchot Tone (Mutiny on the Bounty)
Automatic Nominee - Paul Muni (Black Fury)
Automatic Winner - Victor McLaglen (The Informer)
BEST ACTRESS:
Automatic Winner - Bette Davis (Dangerous)
REMOVE NOMINEE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE BEEN 6TH PLACE IN VOTING FROM THIS SELECTION:
Claudette Colbert (Private Worlds)
Elisabeth Bergner (Escape Me Never)
Katharine Hepburn (Alice Adams)
Merle Oberon (The Dark Angel)
Miriam Hopkins (Becky Sharp)
DETERMINE 5 MOST LIKELY NOMINEES IN:
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
DETERMINE WINNERS IN EACH SUPPORTING CATEGORY
* from films with a 1935 release date only
Will continue updating this post later on as a clarification for release dates of the films nominated for Oscars spanning two years.