The 17th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Bog
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Re: The 17th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by Bog »

danfrank wrote:
On the bubble: Redmayne, Lawrence,
Not sure if I understand what "bubble" you could possibly mean, these 2 do not add up to 60 years of age, multiple noms each, a statue each, a recent nomination each, of which was based almost purely on sight unseen momentum 12 months back. Unfortunately I think if we like it or not they are here to stay as far as nominations go...and arguably at least as "likely to be back" as any one of those 8 listed. It feels this year you saw his and her equivalent of Penn and Blanchett's I Am Sam and Golden Age respectively, and thusly counted their chances as ranking narrowly above Stallone going forward.
Mister Tee wrote: Michael Stuhlbarg, who I think is one of the best character actors to come along in some time.
I could not agree more...even finding him extremely affecting in a very small Transparent role, yet again chameleon-esque. His Rothstein deserved Emmy nods, his Gopnik deserved an actual Oscar, and while opportunities for widely seen lead roles with big names attached will be few and far between, I'd sure like for you to be right about a future Stuhlbarg nomination.
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Re: The 17th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by Mister Tee »

dws1982 wrote:But I'm going to do my thing where I throw out an actor who wasn't really in the mix for a nomination. I know this kind of bugs you, Tee,
It doesn't bug me; it's just addressing a different question.

I'd actually advocate for another Steve Jobs actor in the category of "not in the picture yet, but I could see it": Michael Stuhlbarg, who had notable roles in Pawn Sacrifice and Trumbo as well as Steve Jobs, plus his role on Boardwalk Empire, and who I think is one of the best character actors to come along in some time.
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Re: The 17th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by danfrank »

I'll stick with the actors, with three categories:

Likely to be back: Fassbender, Damon, DiCaprio, Ronan, Blanchett, Ruffalo, Hardy, Bale

Not likely: Rampling, Stallone, Leigh (Jason Leigh?), McAdams

On the bubble: Cranston, Redmayne, Lawrence, Larson, Rylance, Mara, Winslet, Vikander

My picks for future nominees: Oscar Isaac, Cynthia Nixon
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Re: The 17th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by FilmFan720 »

Tee, thanks for the shout out on that prediction!

As for the title question, I think that Tee and DWS covered things pretty well here. The usual suspects are sure to be back, and the other question marks have been well covered. In the last 20 years, none of these "comeback" nominees have picked up second nominations, so I don't think Stallone's (never as serious as everyone thought) run to an Oscar will continue.

As for the bonus question, I can't remember if I've floated this name out before, and she was only on the fringes of a nomination this year, but you have to wonder what Emily Blunt needs to do to get into the Oscar conversation. It seems like she consistently gets talked about around the fringes of the conversation (The Devil Wears Prada, The Young Victoria, Looper, Into the Woods, Sicario), but then she can't get any traction in the season and becomes an extreme after-thought. Her most considerable nominations have been the Globes, almost all in the after-thought category of Comedic Actress, and some action nominations from the Broadcast critics. I think she probably needs one of these movies to pick up some heat all around the film to get her into consideration (most of these films were discussed early as major awards contenders but only picked up a few token nominations), but I would love to see her finally get her due one of these days.
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Re: The 17th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by dws1982 »

Very good, as always, Mister Tee.

Rylance is a throwback to those British stage actors who used to get nominated (and occasionally win) without being a major film presence. I could see him getting into films, Dench-like, as you mention, or I could see this not changing the trajectory of his career: Lots of theatre in England, some occasional Broadway trips, with occasional movies and TV miniseries thrown in. But now that he's on the radar, I can see directors looking to him more often. I could definitely see more nominations. And if the BBC does the final part of the Wolf Hall story, I could see him adding an Emmy to his Oscar and Tonys.

I suspect that if the Creed sequel gets off the ground, there'll be lots of Oscar talk for Stallone from people who think he was robbed this time. But the nostalgia for the role won't be as strong, and I doubt critics--many of whom, I suspect, were surprised to see him surrounded by a decent movie for the first time in years--will be as kind.

I don't really have a lot to add. I feel like, of all the actors who were overlooked, Jordan and Elba probably are the most likely to turn up in the years ahead. A lot of the other actors who were overlooked have either been nominated before (like Steve Carell and Michael Keaton), or seem unlikely to get another role as Oscar friendly as they had this year (Jacob Tremblay).

But I'm going to do my thing where I throw out an actor who wasn't really in the mix for a nomination. I know this kind of bugs you, Tee, but I also kind of enjoy doing it. Previous honorees include the now twice-nominated Michael Fassbender (all the way back in 2008, where Okri and I made up the cheering section for him), Andrew Garfield (who almost got nominated in 2010, and should've been this year), and Kyle Chandler (who appeared in a nominated film this year, and has a role in one of the big Sundance hits). My guy was never really in the conversation, although he did appear in two nominated films this year: Jeff Daniels. I think he should've been in the mix for Steve Jobs this year, and I think that if things had gone a bit differently for that film, he might very well have been. He seems to get lots of work, and I think the right role will come eventually.
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Re: The 17th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by Big Magilla »

I have just a few thoughts on this.

Aside from Charlotte Rampling, who waited fifty years for what will probably be her only Oscar nomination, and Rachel McAdams, who has had a pretty lightweight career, I think any and possibly all of the acting nominees could be back. The two who might make it back the soonest are Jennifer Jason Leigh, who plays Lady Bird Johnson in Rob Reiner's LBJ due out this year, and Matt Damon who shrinks himself in Alexander Payne's Downsizing due out next year.

If Jennifer Lawrence is the new Jennifer Jones with Davis O. Russell her David O. Selznick, then Alicia Vikander is the new Ingrid Bergman. She'll have a long and illustrious career but I don't see anything on the horizon at this point that screams another Oscar just quite yet. Michael Fassbender will almost certainly have an Oscar in his future, but he might be old and bald before he wins one at the rate he's going.

Even Sylvester Stallone could be back if he makes another sequel to Rocky in which dies, putting a definite end to the character.

Of the ones who didn't make it this year, I agree Idris Elba has the best shot of landing a nomination and a win for a standout project. I also think Jacob Tremblay will be nominated before the age of 12. He's still got two years to do it.

I don't see any of the nominated directors making it back any time soon, if at all.
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The 17th Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by Mister Tee »

Okay, I have to admit: it gives me a tinge of “god, I’m old” to be typing The 17th Annual Who’ll Be Back? I remember posting the first one -- days after the presentations for 1999, in the early months of this millennium -- and being surprised how enthusiastically people took to the topic. I wish I’d saved copies of those first couple of years – to see how off-base I was about some things…and maybe to note how many of the people discussed are no longer on the scene.

Anyway, to this year’s group:

I’m imagining an alternate universe: one where Steve Jobs’ huge opening weekend grosses weren’t misleading -- where they, instead, led to a hefty, successful box-office run, and critics, in turn, didn’t back off their early raves, but rather made Michael Fassbender the dominant winner in December balloting. I’m not saying that would have been enough for Fassbender to surpass DiCaprio – the latter’s “overdue” narrative hit fever pitch, and The Revenant was, for whatever reason, a huge success – but it might at least have put Fassbender into the conversation, and set him up as the most-robbed/hottest future prospect. Even as it is, I think there’s substantial sentiment that his performance got less than its due, and if he can ever manage to hit the sweet spot – a performance on the scale of his two nominations in a commercial success (with no Jared Leto juggernaut in his path) – he’ll have the accumulated extra-credit points to get pushed over the top. And he’ll certainly have his chances: just ahead, he’s got Malick/Cianfrance projects, as well as upper-tier franchise items (in my view, anyway: I find Nesbo’s Harry Hole books among the best current thrillers). I look at Fassbender as maybe the most likely next half-decade winner of this year’s crop.

okri said in the actor thread that he viewed Bryan Cranston as the year’s runner-up. Could be – Trumbo on the whole had amazing award strength, considering it was (as okri also noted) just one of a pack of failed biopics from the Fall festivals. Does this mean Cranston will be feted again, soon? He certainly has his cheering section, though I can’t say I’m deeply among them – even on Breaking Bad, I found Anna Gunn and (especially) Aaron Paul more impressive, and I thought his stage LBJ was a ham-fest. But many are full-on in love with him, and he has a massive schedule – something like six movies over the next year or two. I can say for sure All the Way won’t bring him another Oscar nomination – it’s being shot as an HBO/TV movie. But who can say with certainty about any of the rest?

If, as okri maintained in that same best actor thread, DiCaprio got to the Academy’s heart by pursuing mainstream movies with auteurist sensibilities, Matt Damon ought to get there sooner or later himself. In fact, he was taking that route first: jumping right from his Good Will Hunting breakthrough to films with Spielberg, Minghella, Redford, Soderbergh, Scorsese, on and on. Somehow, he hasn’t got the Oscar affection DiCaprio has – it’s absurd that his only nomination between Good Will and this year was for the ho-hum Invictus. But I think The Martian, lightweight vehicle though it was, reawakened people to just how sneakily effective an actor Damon is, and maybe they’ll be looking at him more closely for a chance to award him (it’s also possible up to now they’ve thought of his screenwriting prize as enough). For the immediate future, he’s got movies with Yimou Zhang, George Clooney and Alexander Payne lined up; I’m guessing he’ll be more an AMPAS presence in the years just ahead than he’s been for a while.

Any opinion I express about Eddie Redmayne is of course immediately suspect, given my oft-expressed antipathy. I will say I don’t feel quite as alone in my opinion this year. While most were at worst tolerant of his Theory of Everything nomination/win, his return this year was greeted with far more scorn. It wasn’t enough to prevent his nomination, of course – weak field + uber-bait pushed him through – but I’ve been hearing a fair amount of “he really isn’t all that good, is he?” He appears to be taking a hiatus for family duties, with a J.K. Rowling vehicle his only scheduled release. Once again, I’m out of the loop on the guy, but…I think it’s possible we won’t see him back, at least for a while.

Here’s what I wrote about Leonardo DiCaprio in the 15th annual edition: “We can expect he’ll work with major directors on top-drawer projects, and I’d about bet the ranch he’s on the stage accepting an award before…well, let’s say before the end of the Hillary administration.” It didn’t even take him that long! Clearly, this wasn’t a daring prediction on my part; most here would have made the same call. And I’d guess there’s no reason to expect the man to cool off – despite the Internet teasing about his hunger for awards, he’s never struck me as focused on anything but being a part of exciting films. His schedule for the moment is barren, but one assumes before long he’ll be back at it with a name-brand director, and at least some of such collaborations are bound to be awards fodder.

(On the subject of good predictions, I came across this from FilmFan in that two-years-ago edition: “Just at a glance, to bet against DiCaprio, Bale, McConaughey, Streep, Adams, Blanchett, Dench, Roberts, Lawrence, Cooper or Fassbender from emerging again as a nominee would be ridiculous.” Remarkably, only two years after, 7 of those 11 have already made a return.)

Jessica Tandy notwithstanding, performers who don’t score with the Academy till they’ve hit their 70s aren’t the likeliest return possibilities. Which is to say: this was probably career acknowledgment for Charlotte Rampling, not the start of something bigger. I’d be happy to be wrong – and Rampling’s future schedule is as full-up as ever. But her career choices have (self-evidently) rarely been in AMPAS’ wheelhouse, and I think this might be her only visit to the Dolby.

Saoirse Ronan, on the other hand, seems like she’s just getting warmed up. She’s already achieved the rare nomination-as-child/adult combo that I believe only Jodie Foster has made in the past (Natalie Wood a borderline case) – something about which I expressed pessimism in the 2007 edition. Ronan’s got an ability to find subtle depths in her material; she also seems a very savvy lady for her age, picking strong projects; and she knows how to work a room. I see a strong career ahead, and further nominations should be very much part of that.

If it wasn’t obvious after Blue Jasmine, it’s certainly crystal clear now that Cate Blanchett is an actress for the ages – seven nominations, and it feels like she’s barely in mid-career. She’s a commanding leading lady, with the range of a character actress; I see no reason not to expect multiple nominations after this. Her schedule is a bit thin on awards prospects right now – the only serious effort is a Terence Malick that seems to have been cast out of this year’s Oscar list (Fassbender, Bale and Mara also appear). But her career couldn’t be burning brighter than it is right now, and I doubt we’ll have to wait long for another red-carpet appearance.

Though she’s not on Blanchett’s level as an actress, you can’t deny Jennifer Lawrence is a true Movie Star. Her fourth nomination in six years, this one in spite of a disappointing vehicle – she’s at Julia Roberts level, something we don’t see that often in these comic-book blockbuster days. Lawrence is breaking out of the David O. Russell orbit for a bit – working with Aronofsky and Tyldum next, with Spielberg in the wings – so it’s at least a decent bet she’ll be making more appearances at Oscar presentations just ahead. I’d say she’s a long way from another win, but I doubt she cares all that much about that.

It’s worth noting that, till the other night, a good portion of the world had never heard of Brie Larson – most of her career had been in obscure indies; probably not since Marion Cotillard or Hilary Swank has someone as unknown won the lead actress award. Interestingly, her immediate future schedule is bifurcated: one bona fide cash-in (a King Kong movie), the rest the sort of small projects from no-name directors that have marked her career prior to Room. Perhaps it’ll take a while for her to line up the mainstream auteur projects most likely to bring her back to the Oscars. I think she’s too young and talented to sink back to obscurity, but her upcoming career choices will dictate whether this big victory is a prelude to more extensive Academy recognition.

I think Mark Ruffalo was somewhat unlucky this season (well, as unlucky as an Oscar nominee can be). He was attached to the ultimate best picture winner, and on his third nomination in six years, which should have made him a hot contender. But his performance wasn’t universally popular (not even the unanimous choice for best supporting male in his film), and his widely-played Oscar clip may have been the scene his detractors disliked the most. Still…he’s long been admired; his career has held up nicely, on stage, TV and screen (including high-grossing franchises); and he does the kind of thoughtful dramas AMPAS loves the most. He doesn’t have anything promising in the current line-up, but I’d guess he’ll be returning as the decade goes on. And he’s the kind of actor who gets around to winning sooner or later.

Ah, yes, Tom Hardy, my lucky bonus round pick from last year (actually, please note that three of my last four bonus round picks – Fassbender, McConaughey & Hardy – have come through…and I’ll still bet on Oscar Isaac to make it eventually). Hardy had a pretty prominent year, heading up two films that managed 22 nominations (though his true star/acting vehicle, Legend, was a full-on bust). His upcoming schedule has only one prime prospect – Nolan’s Dunkirk film – but I imagine it’ll be filling out with more major films as time goes on. Hardy doesn’t seem to do himself a lot of favors with PR, but talent alone might be enough to bring him back to the Dolby.

Christian Bale waited a quarter century for his first Academy notice, and now he can’t seem to stop being feted. His resume has always been a bit spotty – a Batman movie, surrounded by four films you’ve barely heard of, and then an Oscar contender – but voters seem greatly respectful of his talent. I could see him popping up unpredictably once every couple of years.

What, really, is there to say about Sylvester Stallone? He’s had a cruddy (if lucrative) career for close to 40 years, one whose Venn circle never came close to overlapping with the Oscars’. Creed was an incredible stroke of luck, bringing him to respectability for the first time since Rocky’s win 37 years ago. I’d say the chances of such a thing recurring are sub-zero.

Mark Rylance is the sort of actor only the Brits seem to produce these days: unremarkable looking, understated, yet wide in his range and universally respected. Sort of Jim Broadbent, but with more leading man quality (at least on stage). He’s done relatively few films till now, but he’s already got another Spielberg and Nolan’s Dunkirk in the hopper, so maybe he’s about to start a Dench-like late-in-life run at movie prominence (while not neglecting his theatre roots). I can definitely see him returning as nominee.

Rooney Mara has two nominations in five years, but I still can’t decide what I think of her as an actress. She’s a very quiet performer – meaning subtle, yes; lacking in histrionics…but maybe also meaning lacking in the vivid colors that can make a career soar, at least in Hollywood. (She’d be better off on the Rylance track in the UK.) She has one of the most extensive future schedules of any nominee this year – half a dozen films in the next year or so – but nothing on that schedule strikes me as the sort of project that gets automatic attention; the projects will need big critical support to make any impact. If she’s really going to have a moment, we should know before too long. For the moment, I’m agnostic.

Jennifer Jason Leigh finally made the Oscar list, more than 30 years after we came to know her In Fast Times at Ridgemont High. She’s been a cult favorite most of that time, but this was her first real dip into the Hollywood mainstream. The question: is it a one-shot, or a prelude to ongoing tributes – in actor terms, is she Sean Penn, or Gary Oldman? Penn (a Fast Times co-star) was viewed as a special actor for more than a decade before finally getting Academy recognition…but once he broke the ice, he came back again and again, ultimately winning on both his fourth and fifth nominations. Gary Oldman was similarly held in high esteem as an actor without ever getting a nomination, till finally breaking through for Tinker, Tailor. In his case, though, it seems to have been a one-time deal. I’m inclined to think Leigh might be more in Oldman’s category, but I’m open to being proven wrong.

It was good to see Kate Winslet back – it had been beginning to seem like her Reader Oscar was a death-blow to her film career. I can’t say the Steve Jobs role was a return to full glory for her – it was, after all, a supporting role, a subordinate one, for an actress who more often than not dominated her films (perhaps related to her turning 40). But it got her name into the discussion again, and, with luck, she’ll follow it up with further strong credits. Even were she to have no substantial credits from this point forward, she’d be a significant name in film history. But she’s got a great deal of time ahead, and I think she’s got more to show us.

Rachel McAdams’s nomination was such a clear tag-along – so lacking in justification beyond its attachment to a best picture winner – that I’m not sure how much good it did her in the Oscar futures game. She remains what she was prior to Spotlight: an attractive, likable, seemingly serious actress whose depth of ability is in question. It’d be interesting to see what she could do if someone handed her a truly meaty role…but I’m not sure she’s done anything to justify being given such an opportunity.

I was rooting against Alicia Vikander the other night -- mostly because I didn’t like her film, but partly because I thought it might not be best for her career. Not to subscribe to any Oscar jinx talk, but young things who’ve won this category have not infrequently drifted to has-been land (Mira Sorvino, Jennifer Connelly), somewhat from the sense they got too much too soon from the Oscars. Like many, I think Vikander’s a talented lady (I don’t think I’m just swayed by her beauty), and I believe she could have a real future. If she does, prizes will come naturally (and more deservedly) along the way. But this too-early recognition could sour some people on her. Most people are too young to know this, but, in the Fall of 1975, Bruce Springsteen, then virtually unknown, was the simultaneous cover-subject on Time and Newsweek. It made him something of a laughing-stock in the rest of the media – and took him almost ten years to truly change minds. Early recognition isn’t always a blessing. Anyway: Vikander’s got a rather varied schedule upcoming: the Cianfrance with her BF, Tulip Fever (which has a Danish Girl 2 vibe), a Jason Bourne and a Wim Wenders. It’ll be interesting to see how good she looks to us a few years hence.

George Miller is 70 years old, has directed only 9 features, 4 of which are Mad Max movies (two others are Happy Feet). This would not appear the profile of a director likely to return. But, of course, I bet all season against his getting this far, so what do I know?

Adam McKay is, in a way, similar to Kathryn Bigelow 2009: both had been around a while, making successful commercial movies, getting no attention from awards bodies. Each had an unexpected breakthrough, got to the Oscars and won a major award. And each was left with the question, what’s your follow-up? – do you go back to that stuff that’s been so lucrative, or do you continue down this more ambitious path? Bigelow’s decision was for the latter: she went right to Zero Dark Thirty, and has nothing Point Break-ish on her agenda. McKay has a golden ticket to follow the same route; let’s see if he cashes it in.

Tom McCarthy had been largely ignored by the Academy, not even scoring potential writing nominations for The Station Agent, The Visitor or Win Win. Now he has screenplay and best picture wins. Yet, even with that, he got essentially no consideration as best director (except by the National Society; go figure). His work is in the sensitive-humanist category that will always strike a chord with AMPAS, and, now that he’s been singled out, perhaps each of his succeeding films will be given first-tier consideration. I can see him getting future writing nods; directing will remain a long-shot.

It’s way too early to have any idea whether Lenny Abrahamson is the one-off of one-offs, or starting an illustrious career. Frank is the only one of his earlier efforts I’ve seen and…well, a year later, I’m still not sure what I thought of the film. Abrahamson is maybe the least likely guy alive to ever slip into making franchises, so we can expect his future efforts to be at the very least singular. And this attention he’s received for Room would suggest that, for a while anyway, his upcoming work will be given a serious look. Offhand, I’d lean toward the one-off call, but I’ve been wrong on things like that before.

Even though he fell short of the unprecedented back-to-back picture/director combo, I think it’s safe to say the Academy truly has a thing for Alejandro G. Innaritu. As many have noted, every single film he’s ever made has shown up at the Oscars, often in contravention of popular, and certainly Internet, opinion. Remember those who suggested he might receive some backlash after his sweeping wins last year? (You don’t have to look it up; it was me.) Toss that idea out. Even while a sizable contingent views him as histrionic and wildly overrated, he maintains a core of fans in AMPAS who are likely to give him consideration – and often nominations – every time he makes another film.

I’ll start off the bonus round – where we try to predict the didn’t-quite-make-it-to-nomination hopeful we think might get over the top in future – by, uncharacteristically, talking about a director. Denis Villeneuve has now had two consecutive films that got good/not great reviews, good/not great box-office, and a minor nomination or two. I think he’s flirting with making the leap to full-on contention.

To the actors, though, where there’s a fairly wide field. Let’s remember the criteria: someone never nominated in the past, who got into the discussion somewhere along the line – critics or precursors – but failed to make the AMPAS list, yet seems likely to turn up one year or other. You’d have to consider NSFC winner Michael B. Jordan, and I could see him turning up in the right role. Multiple prize winner Kristen Stewart probably deserves consideration, after two years of buzz-worthy work. Ultimately, though, I have to gravitate to that crowded supporting actor field, where so many well-qualified candidates were unlucky enough to come along in as competitive a year as the category has ever yielded. Paul Dano, sorry to say, may have to wonder if he’ll ever get such an opening again. But I have no such reservations about Idris Elba, who I think about has to win this classification this year. His reputation since The Wire has been absolutely sterling, and, with his SAG and Spirit Awards, it’s like he was a shadow winner this year. I have no doubt we’ll be seeing him at the Oscars in years to come, and he’s my bonus pick for today.
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