Cases Where Something Might Have Won...But Wasn't Nominated

[Big Magilla]

Does anyone else understand why it's so baffling to me that she managed more votes for Best Leading Actress than Supporting?

We don't know that she did.

As I recall, it wasn't that Winslet got more votes in lead than support. It was a first-past-the-post kind of situation. They tabulate lead before support and if the person gets nominated in that category, they don't bother counting them in the lower one. That's at least how I've understood something like that. I wonder if they should tabulate support first rather than second if that's the case.

If they tabulated totals for both and she got more in support than lead but the totals in support came in in sixth place she could still have been nominated in lead instead which could explain a nomination but probably not a win.

She could have been nominated in either category but her role, which is subordinate to the lead character which was split between two actors, was at 41 minutes, 55 seconds longer than those of Patricia Neal (Hud), Louise Fletcher (One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest), Nicole Kidman (Hours), Frances McDormand (Fargo), Luise Rainer (The Great Ziegfeld), Simone Signoret (Room at the Top), and Janet Gaynor (Sunrise). She had a higher percentage of screen time at 33.85% than Fletcher, Rainer, Neal, Kidman, McDormand, Signoret, and Julie Andrews (Mary Poppins).

https://www.screentimecentral.com/leadi ... ss-winners

[Sabin]

Does anyone else understand why it's so baffling to me that she managed more votes for Best Leading Actress than Supporting?

Well, she won the BAFTA for Best Leading Actress for The Reader.

Correction: she was nominated for a SAG for Revolutionary Road.

[dws1982]

Rules may have changed since 2008, but according to the Oscar rules on their website right now:

4. The leading role and supporting role categories will be tabulated simultaneously. If any performance should receive votes in both categories, the achievement shall be placed only on the ballot in that category in which, during the tabulation process, it first receives the required number of votes to be nominated. In the event that the performance receives the number of votes required to be nominated in both categories simultaneously, the achievement shall be placed only on the ballot in that category in which it receives the greater percentage of the total votes.

5. In the event that two achievements by an actor or actress receive sufficient votes to be nominated in the same category, only one shall be nominated using the preferential tabulation process and such other allied procedures as may be necessary to achieve that result.

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
As I recall, it wasn't that Winslet got more votes in lead than support. It was a first-past-the-post kind of situation. They tabulate lead before support and if the person gets nominated in that category, they don't bother counting them in the lower one. That's at least how I've understood something like that. I wonder if they should tabulate support first rather than second if that's the case.

That would make so much more sense because all it requires is 1) voters weren't into Revolutionary Road (didn't get a SAG nom), 2) Winslet could've come in 5th in lead for The Reader (which means really just getting more votes than Sally Hawkins and herself), and 3) it doesn't matter if she came in 1st for supporting.

[mlrg]

Ron Howard would have won had he been nominated for Apollo 13. It would have taken best picture as well.

[OscarGuy]

As I recall, it wasn't that Winslet got more votes in lead than support. It was a first-past-the-post kind of situation. They tabulate lead before support and if the person gets nominated in that category, they don't bother counting them in the lower one. That's at least how I've understood something like that. I wonder if they should tabulate support first rather than second if that's the case.

[Sabin]

dws1982 wrote
This is why I would pay good money to see some vote totals for nominations. I think it's very possible that Winslet had the votes to get three nominations that year: Lead for The Reader, Lead for Revolutionary Road, and Supporting for The Reader, but because she got the most votes for The Reader in Lead, she couldn't be nominated in Support for it, and she couldn't be nominated twice in Lead, so she only had the one nomination. (I also think that if she got nominated in Lead and Support that year, it's very possible she might've won both.)

It's so weird to me that she got more votes in lead than supporting. Like, I understand DiCaprio getting nominated for Blood Diamond over The Departed in either lead or support because it means that his more acclaimed Departed performance split the vote with itself and ultimately didn't make the top five in support. But for Winslet, Academy voters were clearly extremely passionate about The Reader and her performance in it as well a gung ho that she belongs in the lead and possibly defiantly underwhelmed Revolutionary Road.

dws1982 wrote
Definitely agree on DiCaprio in 2012 for Django, and I think that Samuel L. Jackson might've won if he had been the nominee as well, especially if he was in a lineup with four winners.

Maybe. His performance is pretty startling though. I remember when I first saw him show up in Django, I felt uncomfortable. He's both a joke but also really not one. It's a very strange performance.

dws1982 wrote
This is another fun thing to speculate on. I think there are a few like this. Talia Shire in Rocky and Valerie Perrine in Lenny, possibly. An un-nominated one who was campaigned as Lead is Richard Gere in Chicago, who I think might've won in Support.

Shire and Perrine really would've won, I think. Clearly voters were looking for really looking around for an acceptable winner.

Gere is a great example. Gere is obviously a supporting actor in Chicago but Miramax saw an opportunity to get four acting nominations in four slots which I think at that time hadn't been done since Reds. And in retrospect, 2002 was one of the high-water marks for Miramax as well as one of the more competitive Best Actor races of the decade. Gere likely got beaten out by another Miramax performance (Caine). But if pushed to support, Gere would've easily won the Golden Globe (hard to imagine him winning Best Actor against stronger competition and losing there) and likely the SAG as well.

[dws1982]

- Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road for Best Actress in 2008.

This is why I would pay good money to see some vote totals for nominations. I think it's very possible that Winslet had the votes to get three nominations that year: Lead for The Reader, Lead for Revolutionary Road, and Supporting for The Reader, but because she got the most votes for The Reader in Lead, she couldn't be nominated in Support for it, and she couldn't be nominated twice in Lead, so she only had the one nomination. (I also think that if she got nominated in Lead and Support that year, it's very possible she might've won both.)

- First Man Best Original Score and maybe Editing in 2018.

I still don't get these snubs. I was a huge fan and probably let that push me into expecting it to do better with awards than it would ever do, but I thought those two were in the bag.

Definitely agree on DiCaprio in 2012 for Django, and I think that Samuel L. Jackson might've won if he had been the nominee as well, especially if he was in a lineup with four winners.

Also agree with a lot of the songs that have been suggested. I really did think that Bruce Springsteen would win Song in 2008 up until the nominations were announced. That category (which is the one category I would remove if given the option) is usually such a mess that a lot of years there are things that would probably have a chance at winning if they got nominated.

And, yes, this is one where had she been nominated in support, she would have won.

This is another fun thing to speculate on. I think there are a few like this. Talia Shire in Rocky and Valerie Perrine in Lenny, possibly. An un-nominated one who was campaigned as Lead is Richard Gere in Chicago, who I think might've won in Support.

[Big Magilla]

Rosalind Russell would have won hands down for Picnic had she not refused to be included in the supporting actress category.

Although truth be told she is quite grotesque in Picnic. Plays it way too over-the-top. And she is miscast, playing the part as if she was still in the musical "Wonderful Town", which she had just finished playing and for which she won a Tony.

Not so. The character of volatile schoolteacher Rosemary (originated on Broadway by Eileen Heckart) is quite different from the character of Ruth in Wonderful Town where she is the calm in the storm around her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pCfW8nX1ZU

And, yes, this is one where had she been nominated in support, she would have won. She's over-the-top, but deliciously so.

The same situation is true for Helen Hayes in Anastasia the following year.

Then there's the case of the wrong nominee in the right category, i.e. Gladys Cooper if she had been nominated instead of Wendy Hiller for Separate Tables.

A case could be made for Hiller herself if she had been nominated for Sons and Lovers instead of Mary Ure. Ditto Trevor Howard had he been nominated in support for Sons and Lovers instead of lead over Anthony Perkins in Psycho, Fredric March in Inherit the Wind and Robert Mitchum in either Home form the Hill or The Sundowners.

[Reza]

Rosalind Russell would have won hands down for Picnic had she not refused to be included in the supporting actress category.

Although truth be told she is quite grotesque in Picnic. Plays it way too over-the-top. And she is miscast, playing the part as if she was still in the musical "Wonderful Town", which she had just finished playing and for which she won a Tony.

[mlrg]

Rosalind Russell would have won hands down for Picnic had she not refused to be included in the supporting actress category.

[Sabin]

dws1982 wrote
This one may give away my age and ignorance at the time of that Oscar race, but I thought Michael Douglas had a chance of winning for Wonder Boys before the nominations came out in 2000. It was a pretty new Oscar watcher then, but my thought was: Tom Hanks wasn't going to win number three just a few years after winning his first two for a movie that a lot of people didn't like, Javier Bardem was an unknown in a really small movie, Geoffrey Rush just won and people hated Quills, Jamie Bell is too young, Ed Harris will struggle to even get nominated, and even if Gladiator wins a bunch of awards, they aren't going to see Russell Crowe's performance as an example of serious acting. So I thought Douglas had as good of a shot as anyone.

Also, Michael Douglas was in Traffic. He had a very good year. I thought he would win too. I think I just really wanted him too. I don't know if his performance is a product of great acting or just good casting but Grady Tripp has stuck with me to this day as one of my all-time favorite characters.

In retrospect, that was foolish. Wonder Boys was a flop -- more than once. It probably came out too soon after American Beauty and was seen as that other mid-life crisis movie about pot-smoking, gay people, and lusting after younger women. This was 2000, mind you. I think his marriage to Catherine Zeta-Jones really put a lot of people off, to be honest. I also think they screwed up by categorizing it as a Drama with the Hollywood Foreign Press. Had they gone with comedy (which it clearly is), Michael Douglas would've easily beaten George Clooney and could've given a speech that could've persuaded some people to just give the goddamn thing a chance. Speeches aren't the end-all be-all, but they can move the needle a little to get some viewership. And Michael Douglas is a smart enough guy to know how to write a good one.

But in retrospect, not being nominated for a SAG is a kiss of death.

[Sabin]

Let's see. In my life:
There are a few performances that if nominated I think could've possibly won, like Kate Winslet for Quills, Steve Buscemi for Ghost World, Dennis Quaid for Far From Heaven, and Brad Pitt for Babel.

I'd include:

- Lots of songs. "The Wrestler" is a great example. Beyond that, "Old Habits Die Hard" (Alfie) or "A Million Voices" (Hotel Rwanda) in 2004, "Song of the Heart" (Happy Feet) in 2006, and I really think "Glasgow" (Wild Rose) in 2019 could've won.
- Michael Caine for Best Supporting Actor for Little Voice in 1998.
- Totally agree with Inception for Best Film Editing for 2010.
- I don't think Waking Life would've won Best Animated Feature in 2001 but it's omission was a shock -- and stranger things have happened.
- The Illusionist or The Painted Veil for Best Original Score in 2006.
- Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road for Best Actress in 2008.
- Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained for Best Supporting Actor in 2012. That really was the ideal way to honor him and get it over with.
- American Hustle for Best Makeup [& Hairstyling] in 2013.
- Clearly I was proven wrong, but I thought The Martian had a decent shot going into the Oscar race of winning Best Picture, Director, and Film Editing. I was wrong but I did want to throw that out there.
- First Man Best Original Score and maybe Editing in 2018.

- Last one: I think if Michael B. Jordan had been nominated for Creed, he possibly could've won. I'll explain why. There was zero passion for any of the other nominees. They all sort of blended together. Steve Jobs was a flop, Damon in The Martian was too light, Danish Girl was too disappointing, and Trumbo was fluff. What did it take for DiCaprio to finally win? A lack of competition. But I've always thought DiCaprio got very lucky because The Revenant is probably tied with Blood Diamond for his least impressive nominated performance. There's very little there. I'm not sure if the OscarSoWhite hashtag would happen if Jordan was nominated but I do think his presence in the race would garner some excitement and there's a world where he turns it into a win, especially if just enough people see the movie.

[Precious Doll]

If Lillian Gish has been nominated for The Whales of August (1987) it would be hard to imagine her loosing to Cher in Moonstruck or anybody else for that matter.

[FilmFan720]

The LEGO Movie in 2014 seems like an obvious case here.

I also think there are a lot of these in the Documentary category...Hoop Dreams, Won't You Be My Neighbor, Jane, and Apollo 11 are all cases that come right to my mind.

It's a lot tougher in the above-the-line cases...Ben Affleck is the only one that jumps to my mind.