Categories One-by-One: Adapted Screenplay

[MaxWilder]

The ballot lists only the film titles, right? I think it helps Borat that voters won’t be seeing more than an NBA starting lineup of names.

[Mister Tee]

So... what do you think?

I have ten days to decide.

(Leaning The Father, if only for how it clouds the best picture race. But could change my mind.)

[Sabin]

So... what do you think?

[Mister Tee]

Some of the worst Oscar pundit-ing involves bank-shot reasoning. We all remember "Idris Elba beating Mark Rylance is good news for Sylvester Stallone", and "Eighth Grade topping Green Book means The Favourite should win". We had a similar thing happen when Borat won WGA this year -- the children at AwardsWatch hopped immediately to "Nomadland now has this nailed!"

Implicit from this reaction was the notion that Borat carrying over to win at the Oscars was unlikely-to-impossible. (I know, there's another implicit assumption re: The Father; I'll get to that, but bear with me, first.) The argument against Borat winning is 1) it's Borat and 2) it's not nominated for best picture, As to the initial claim: I know Borat seems to operate outside normal Oscar range -- I was dubious till nominations day that Bakalova would cash in on her critics' prizes. But she DID get that nomination, and now both Borat movies have been nominated by the writers' branch, and it won WGA...so, maybe we shouldn't dismiss the idea of its winning completely out of hand.

The second part, that it's not nominated for best picture, carries more weight. I've gone through the history of the screenwriting awards vis a vis best picture numerous times before, but a brief review: From the establishment of the two screenwriting categories in 1957 through 1990, no film not nominated for best picture ever won a writing award over a film that was. (The victories for non-best picture nominees in original screenplay over that time arose from no best picture choices managing nominations.) This changed in 1991, when Thelma and Louise topped Bugsy, despite the latter having the best picture nod that had eluded Thelma. Over the next decade-and-a-half, such wins became commonplace -- six subsequent times, a non-best picture nominee triumphed over at least one best picture contender.

However...this stopped when the best picture list was expanded to up-to-10 in 2009; since then, every screenplay winner has shown up on the best picture slate. One can guess that many of those seeming-fluke winners of the 1991-2004 period would also have made an expanded best picture list -- certainly Thelma itself (which had directing/editing/cinematography in addition to its lead actresses); likely Gods and Monsters (PGA and Globe-Drama nomination, NBR best picture win, two acting nominations), Almost Famous (which had PGA & DGA nominations, and an editing Oscar nod) and Talk to Her (directing as well as writing). The debatable ones are The Usual Suspects, Sling Blade and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, each of which only got one acting citation in addition to its screenplay win. But Suspects and Eternal Sunshine were wildly admired conceptual scripts, and Sling Blade had an omnipresent Billy Bob Thornton, being shepherded by Harvey Weinstein at his zenith of influence; I don't see Borat having quite the strength any of these films did. Which is to say, while I don't dismiss the film's chances here 100%, I rate it only middle of the pack, despite the WGA result.

One Night in Miami was the film that DID suffer from Borat's win. As the closest to a best picture contender of the nominees that made both the WGA and AMPAS lists, it seemed like it should have shown strength at WGA -- in fact, had it triumphed, one can imagine people making an argument for it it, as the most dialogue-driven of this Oscar slate. That loss probably closed off its chances (as well as The White Tiger's, which has never really been in the race).

The second flaw in the bank-shot argument -- yes, I'm finally getting to it -- is that Nomadland isn't the only Oscar nominee that was disqualified at WGA. The Father also missed this trial-heat, and it has far stronger writing credentials than Nomadland -- based on a play, dialogue-heavy, character-based. I thought all this before the BAFTA outcome, and I think it even more strongly now.

However...there's no point pretending this is suddenly a lay-down. The Father has literary cred, but it's a bit out-there for AMPAS -- closer to Pinter than Christopher Hampton's earlier Oscar win. Yeah, it won BAFTA, but that could strictly be home-town favoritism -- Philomena and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy won this category there, as well.

To use my favorite 2020 phrase, "in any other year, it wouldn't have a chance" -- honestly, that sentence applies to Borat, Nomadland and The Father. What we're going to find out, in 10 days, is which one it applies to least.

And it matters, because Nomadland with a screenplay win is a whole different best picture contender than without. More on that when I get around to a best picture thread.

[Sabin]

We don't really have much evidence to work from. The Father and Nomadland are the only two films up for Best Picture. Neither was up for a WGA Award. The Father took home the BAFTA but we have no way of knowing if that was hometown favoritism. And so the big question becomes whether or not voters vote straight Nomadland all the way down or if enough of them opt to throw a bone to Florian Zeller's first feature adapted from his own novel?

I think so. There's reason enough to believe Oscar voters are open to honoring The Father. But also working in its favor is the fact that Nomadland is such an odd fit for Best Adapted Screenplay. Over the last decade, we've seen contenders take home awards for Picture and Director (The Artist, The Shape of Water), Picture and Screenplay (Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight, Moonlight, and Green Book), and occasionally all three (The King's Speech, Birdman, Parasite). And obviously, two of those are written, directed, and produced by the same person. Chloe Zhao would be the third. My sense is that Chloe Zhao has more in common with Hazanavicius and Del Toro than the rest because somehow all three films' success were attributed to an overall director's vision more than the writing itself. I get the same sense from Chloe Zhao. People seem to want to credit her vision more than her writing. So, her screenwriting chances are definitely on the fence.

Will they spread the wealth? The Academy has shown a predisposition in the last three years of doing so but that habit is in question this year not just with The Father but also with a few films this year: it's conceivable that The Father, Promising Young Woman, or The Trial of the Chicago 7 could go home empty-handed. Or like last year and the year before, the Academy could somehow figure out a way to jigsaw all these films into place. Taken as an individual film though, The Father has six nominations: for acting, writing, editing, and production design. That means it is a broadly popular film both above and down-ballot.

Right now, I lean on the side of The Father taking this award because I see enough evidence that enough voters will individually come to the conclusion that honoring Chloe Zhao for Best Director is sufficient and want to give The Father an award, knowing that Anthony Hopkins might not be an option.

[Big Magilla]

It's been such a crazy year that nothing would surprise me, but I don't want to see an Oscar wasted on nonsense like the Borat sequel so I won't even consider it and hope the Academy doesn't either. That said, any of the other nominees would be fine with me.

One Night in Miami lost traction when it failed to be nominated for either Best Picture or Best Director, which puts it at a decided disadvantage. The White Tiger is a complex crime drama with a very well written screenplay but it's the film's only nomination and unlikely to win more votes than either of the two Best Picture nominees.

I had problems with both of those screenplays. Nomadland is an adaptation of a book about various real-life nomads, some of whom get to play themselves in the film. The main character, played by Frances McDormand, was invented for the film which which makes it a hybrid fictional story-documentary that doesn't always work for me. It could win if they feel strongly enough about the film to reward it more than Best Director and probably Best Picture.

The Father is an excellent expansion of the play. My main problem with it is in the original play in which the two main characters after the central character are played by different actors in different scenes which is a theatrical concept meant to confuse the audience as much as Hopkins' character is confused. I didn't like that, but that's me. Everyone else seems to have loved it. I think it's got the momentum now to capitalize on its BAFTA win and will repeat at the Oscars.

[anonymous1980]

The nominees:

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami...
The White Tiger

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm won the WGA. If One Night in Miami... and The White Tiger couldn't beat it there, they certainly won't triumph here especially not with the two Best Picture nominees ruled ineligible in the WGA competing in this category and who actually have a chance at winning this. Nomadland isn't the typical film to win a screenplay award since it's not a film typically known and praised for its screenplay but since it's a Best Picture front-runner, I can definitely see a Hurt Locker-type scenario that the screenplay just gets swept up along with it. The Father on the other hand, is a more writerly screenplay. It just won the Adapted Screenplay BAFTA. It's a film that's gaining steam and fans along the way. So I can definitely see it winning as a way to honor the film.

I'm going with The Father.