Final Oscar Predictions

[OscarGuy]

I'm leaving mine exclusive to the site. It's just such a chore to re-format and re-post.

[FilmFan720]

These are up on the site, but thought I would add them here:

BEST PICTURE
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
3. Minari
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
5. Promising Young Woman
6. Mank
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. Sound of Metal
9. One Night in Miami
10. The Father

BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
Steven Yeun, Minari

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Alan Kim, Minari
Jared Leto, The Little Things
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Young yuh-jung, Minari

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Judas and the Black Messia
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST FILM EDITING
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Little Things
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
Soul

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy
“Make It Work” from Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
“Fight for You” form Judas and the Black Messiah
“Io Si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
News of the World
Promising Young Woman

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Emma.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
News of the World

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
Hillbilly Elegy
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Pinocchio

BEST SOUND
Greyhound
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Mank
The Midnight Sky
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Bosnia and Herzegovina; Quo Vadis, Aida?
Czech Republic; Charlatan
Denmark; Another Round
Romania; Collective
Russia: Dear Comrades!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Earwig and the Witch
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Boys State
Collective
Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution
MLK/FBI
Welcome to Chechnya

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Burrow
If Anything Happens I Love You
Kapaemahu
The Snail and the Whale
Traces

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
Bittu
The Human Voice
The Letter Room
Two Distant Strangers
The Van

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Colette
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha
The Speed Cubers

[Mister Tee]

I have a friend in the film industry/ Academy voter. He’s watched over 100 films this year, where I’ve seen only in the 20 range. Yet, we see the year much the same: there are enough solid performances to make for respectable races, but the best film list is woefully thin. For that reason, I’ll continue to not take this year all that seriously. I just hope, as recompense, we get a less predictable slate than usual. By which I mean, I hope tomorrow morning proves me wrong more than usual.

1. Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami...
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
alt.: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Probably something in that list of ten will fail to qualify, but I can’t isolate which, so I’m just putting them all down.

2. Best Actor
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari)
alt.: Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

Leaving off Lindo kills me, but precursor season hasn’t been kind. Oldman seems the most vulnerable on the list, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Mikkelsen were the one to take advantage.

3. Best Actress
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
alt.: Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always), Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead)

Neither Kirby nor Day seem locked -- though betting against a showcase role like Billie Holiday seems foolhardy. But the second tier is quite weak, so I’ll stick with these.

4. Best Supporting Actor
Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods)
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
alt.: Alan S. Kim (Minari), David Strathairn (Nomadland)

There’ve been so few supporting nominations for non-English films, it’s hard to believe there’d be two in one year, however odd that year -- leaving me dubious about Kim. I’ll stick with the Boseman double...though I’d be happier with either Clarke Peters or Glynn Turman.

5. Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Olivia Colman (The Father)
Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
alt.: Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman), Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)

This is “spin the wheel, pick your five”. I still don’t think Bakalova is that likely, but her impressive run has cowed me into including her. (I think Borat could show up with nothing, or 3-4 top-line nods.) No one here is safe.

6. Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
David Fincher (Mank)
Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)
alt.: Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah), Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Regina King (One Night in Miami), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)

It could go 5/5 from DGA, but Fincher and (especially) Sorkin are vulnerable. A lengthy group of possible replacements. I wish I knew if Vinterberg was part of the BAFTA regular vote, or strictly a jury interpolation.

7. Best Adapted Screenplay
The Father (Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller)
First Cow (Jon Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)
Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)
One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)
alt.: News of the World (Paul Greengrass & Luke Davies), Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (lots of people), The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani)

Weird-ass stat that will either soar or crash tomorrow: of the 85 previous films to win the NY Critics’ best picture prize (2 in 1960, 0 in 1962), 76 were Oscar-nominees for best picture. Of the omitted 9, 6 (Day for Night, Amarcord, The Player, Leaving Las Vegas, Mulholland Drive, United 93) showed up as Academy directing nominees, and the remaining 3 (Topsy Turvy, Far from Heaven, Carol) were cited for screenplay. Hence…First Cow.

8. Best Original Screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas)
Mank (Jack Fincher)
Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)
alt.: Sound of Metal (Darius Marder, Abraham Marder & Derek Cianfrance), Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman)

I’m probably wrong about Sound of Metal missing, but I can’t figure our which other film to cut.

9. Best Cinematography
Cherry (Newton Thomas Sigel)
Mank (Erik Messerschmidt)
Minari (Lachlan Milne)
Nomadland (Joshua James Richards)
News of the World (Dariusz Wolski)
alt.: The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Phedon Papamichael), First Cow (Christopher Blauvelt)

Going with “ASC surprises tend to repeat at the Oscars”, but I’d sure prefer Sigel nominated for Da 5 Bloods.

10. Best Costume Design
Emma.
Mulan
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Promising Young Woman
Mank
alt.: The Personal History of David Copperfield, News of the World

For everyone’s info: the official title of the film seems to be “Emma.”, with a period. Don’t ask why.

11. Best Production Design
News of the World
Mank
Emma.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Alt.: Tenet

Would those who’ve cited The Father here care to explain? As far as I can recall, it’s just a couple of standard apartments. I get the “trick”, but it doesn’t seem something that would lead to nomination.

12. Best Sound
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal
Alt.: Tenet, The Trial of the Chicago 7

13. Best Film Editing
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
alt.: The Father, Minari

14. Best Score
Mank (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)
The Midnight Sky (Alexandre Desplat)
News of the World (James Newton Howard)
Soul (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste)
Tenet (Ludwig Göransson)
alt.: Minari (Emile Mosseri)

15. Best Visual Effects
Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya
alt.: Mank, The One and Only Ivan

16. Best Make-up
Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio
alt.: Emma., The Little Things

17. Best Song
Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Husavik (My Home Town) (Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga)
Io sì (Seen) (The Life Ahead)
Speak Now (One Night in Miami)
Turntables (All In: The Fight for Democracy)
alt.: Wuhan Flu (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Rain Song (Minari), Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Diane Warren, a documentary – the usual mix.

18. Best Foreign Language Film
Another Round (Denmark)
Collective (Romania)
Dear Comrades! (Russia)
La Llorona (Guatemala)
Two of Us (France)
alt.: Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina), I’m No Longer Here (Mexico)

Except for Another Round, I could be throwing darts at the wall.

19. Best Animated Feature
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
alt.: The Croods: A New Age

20. Best Documentary Feature
Boys State
Crip Camp
Dick Johnson is Dead
Time
Welcome to Chechnya
alt.: My Octopus Teacher, Collective

[dws1982]

Best Picture
(in order of likely inclusion)
1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Mank
If 6. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
If 7. One Night in Miami
If 8. Judas and the Black Messiah
If 9. Sound of Metal
If 10. The Father

Directing
Lee Isaac Chung - Minari
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King – One Night in Miami
Chloé Zhao – Nomadland

Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari

Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
David Strathairn, Nomadland

Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried - Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Helena Zengel, News of the World

Original Screenplay
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Adapted Screenplay
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger

Original Song
“Fight for You”, Judas and the Black Messiah
“lo Si (Seen)”, The Life Ahead
“Rain Song”, Minari
“Speak Now”, One Night in Miami
"Turntables", All In: The Fight For Democracy"

Original Score
The Little Things
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul

Film Editing
Minari
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
The Father
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Cinematography
Dear Comrades
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland

Production Design
The Father
Mank
News of the World
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Tenet

Costume Design
Emma.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
The United States vs. Billie Holliday

Makeup and Hairstyling
Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio

Sound
Da 5 Bloods
Greyhound
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
News of the World
Sound of Metal

Visual Effects
Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
Tenet
Welcome to Chechyna

International Feature Film
Another Round (Demark)
Collective (Romania)
Dear Comrades (Russia)
Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)
Quo Vadis Aida? (Bosnia and Herzogovina)

Animated Feature
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

Documentary Feature
Boys State
Collective
Dick Johnson is Dead
Time
Welcome to Chechnya

[Big Magilla]

Best Picture
(in order of likely inclusion)
1. Nomadland
2. Minari
3. Sound of Metal
4. Promising Young Woman
5. One Night in Miami
6. Judas and the Black Messiah
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
9. Mank
10. The Father

Directing
Lee Isaac Chung - Minari
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
Regina King – One Night in Miami
Darius Marder – Sound of Metal
Chloé Zhao – Nomadland

Actor
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian
Steven Yeun - Minari

Actress
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
Alan Kim - Minari
Leslie Odom, Jr. - One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Supporting Actress
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman – The Father
Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried - Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari

Original Screenplay
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Adapted Screenplay
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night in Miami

Original Song
“Fight for You” – Judas and the Black Messiah
“Hear My Voice” – The Trial of the Chicago 7
“lo Si (Seen)” – The Life Ahead
“Rain Song” – Minari
“Speak Now” – One Night in Miami

Original Score
The Life Ahead
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul

Film Editing
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Cinematography
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
Tenet

Production Design
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Tenet

Costume Design
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
The Personal History of David Copperfield

Makeup and Hairstyling
Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio

Sound
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal

Visual Effects
Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
Tenet
Welcome to Chechyna

International Feature Film
Another Round (Demark)
Better Days (Hong Kong)
I’m No Longer Here (Mexico)
A Sun (Taiwan)
Two of Us (France)

Animated Feature
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

[Sabin]

Math nerd Ben Zauzmer (@BensOscarMath) predicts the Oscars.

In 2019, he went 5/5 except for Best Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay (4/5)
In 2018, he put If Beale Street Could Talk ahead of Bohemian Rhapsody, and only went 5/5 in Best Original Screenplay, and went (4/5) for Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Adapted Screenplay and (3/5) Best Director.

So... he's basically us.


BEST PICTURE
Nomadland (100.0%)
Promising Young Woman (99.8%)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (99.6%)
Minari (97.0%)
Mank (92.9%)
One Night in Miami (88.1%)
Da 5 Bloods (75.2%)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (73.8%)
Sound of Metal (73.6%)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (38.3%)
The Father (37.6%)
Judas and the Black Messiah (23.2%)
News of the World (21.5%)
The Mauritanian (16.8%)
First Cow (13.8%)
Soul (10%)

BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (99.0%)
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (87.1%)
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (66.8%)
David Fincher, Mank (59.3%)
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (53.2%)
Regina King, One Night in Miami (22.7%)
Kelly Reichardt, First Cow (17.2%)
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (17.1%)

BEST ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (98.2%)
Anthony Hopkins, The Father (92.8%)
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (92.8%)
Gary Oldman, Mank (80.9%)
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (35.3%)
Steven Yeun, Minari (27.0%)
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritianian (13.5%)
Sasha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (10.6%)

BEST ACTRESS
Frances McDormand, Nomadland (93.3%)
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (93.3%)
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (82.1%)
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (82.1%)
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (60.8%)
Rosamund Pike, I Care A Lot (11.4%)
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (11.2%)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (99.5%)
Leslie Odom, One Night in Miami (93.2%)
Sasha Baron Cohen, The Trial fo the Chicago 7 (85.4%)
Bill Murray, On the Rocks (46.9%)
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (45.7%)
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (42.4%)
Jared Leto, The Little Things (41.4%)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Olivia Colman, The Father (80.3%)
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (79.5%)
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (79.5%)
Amanda Seyfried, Mank (67.8%)
Helena Zengel, News of the World (61.1%)
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (56.1%)
Jodie Foster, The Mauritianian (24.2%)
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (7.2%)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (97.6)
Promising Young Woman (97.3%)
Mank (85.9%)
Sound of Metal (42.0%)
Minari (29.5%)
Another Round (27.7%)
Rocks (27.7%)
Palm Springs (25.6%)
Never Rarely Sometimes Always (19.9%)
Judas and the Black Messiah (19.8%)
Soul (9.3%)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nomadland (93.6%)
The Father (71.3%)
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (70.7%)
One Night in Miami (70.7%)
First Cow (45.2%)
The White Tiger (34.3%)
News of the World (29.2%)
The Dig (17.8%)
The Mauritianian (17.8%)
I'm Thinking of Ending Things (14.0%)
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (12.3%)

[Sabin]

BEST PICTURE
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night in Miami

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Little Things
The Midnight Sky
Minari
News of the World
Soul

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Fight for You” / Judas and the Black Messiah
“Husavik” / Eurovision Song Contest
“lo Si (Seen)” / The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” / One Night in Miami
“Turntables” / All In: The Fight for Democracy

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Another Round
Dear Comrades!
I’m No Longer Here
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Two of Us

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Boys State
Crip Camp
My Octopus Teacher
Time
Welcome to Chechnya

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cherry
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland

BEST FILM EDITING
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
News of the World
The Personal History of David Copperfield

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
One Night in Miami

BEST MAKEUP
Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
Hillbilly Elegy
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Pinocchio

BEST SOUND
Greyhound
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal
Tenet

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Mank
The Midnight Sky
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya

[criddic3]

BEST PICTURE
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The Mauritanian
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

DIRECTING
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Trial Of The Chicago 7

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Judas And The Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
The Trial Of The Chicago 7

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nomadland
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News Of The World
One Night In Miami

LEAD ACTRESS
Viola Davis - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day - The U.S. vs Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces Of A Woman
Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

(It is possible Yeri Han could make it if Yuen also makes it)

LEAD ACTOR
Riz Ahmed - Sound Of Metal
Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins - The Father
Delroy Lindo - Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman - Mank

(I think Steven Yuen just misses here)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ellen Burstyn - Pieces Of A Woman
Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Coleman - The Father
Amanda Seyfried - Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari

(It is possible for Maria Bakalova or Helena Zengel to replace one of these)

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman - Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial Of The Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya - Judas And The Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr - One Night In Miami
Paul Raci - Sound Of Metal

(Alan Kim or Bill Murray maybe)

FILM EDITING
The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Sound Of Metal
The Trial Of The Chicago 7

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
News Of The World

(I don't buy that they'll totally ignore Da 5 Bloods, but Cherry could replace it I suppose)

ART DIRECTION/PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan
News Of The World
The Personal History Of David Copperfield

COSTUME DESIGN
Emma
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan
The Personal History of David Copperfield

MAKEUP
Birds Of Prey
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio

ORIGINAL SCORE
Mank
The Midnight Sky
News Of The World
Soul
Tenet

SONG
All In: The Fight for Democracy
Eurovision Song Contest
Judas & the Black Messiah
The Life Ahead
One Night in Miami

SOUND
Greyhound
Mank
News Of The World
Sound Of Metal
Tenet

VISUAL EFFECTS
Birds Of Prey
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One And Only Ivan
Tenet

(Love & Monsters could be a surprise inclusion)

[Reza]

Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
The Mauritanian
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Best Supporting Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actress
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
David Fincher, Mank
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Florian Zeller, The Father
Chloë Zhao, Nomadland

Original Screenplay
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Adapted Screenplay
The Father
First Cow
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger

Original Song
“Fight for You” – Judas and the Black Messiah
“Hear My Voice” – The Trial of the Chicago 7
“lo Si (Seen)” – The Life Ahead
“Rain Song” – Minari
“Speak Now” – One Night in Miami

Original Score
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
News of the World
Soul

Film Editing
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Cinematography
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Nomadland
Tenet

Production Design
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Tenet

Costume Design
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
The Personal History of David Copperfield

Makeup and Hairstyling
Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio

Sound
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal

Visual Effects
Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
Tenet
Welcome to Chechyna

International Feature Film
Another Round (Demark)
Better Days (Hong Kong)
I’m No Longer Here (Mexico)
A Sun (Taiwan)
Two of Us (France)

Animated Feature
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

[Mister Tee]

This article intriguingly says two things.

a) There are more people in the academy who joined in 2011 or later than those who were already in.

b) That the nature of the turnover was such that actors, who made up 20.3% in 2011 but only make 14.6% now.

Genuinely curious how we'll see that play out in this year and in years to come.

Every year, when the list of new invitees comes out, people focus on the glamour names -- mostly actors, but also directors, writers. But I've always noted the huge number of add-ons under, say, visual effects or animation. And, I guess it's condescending of me, but I question how many of the tech folk are going to vote for high-art films. The problem with the Oscars has always been the mundane quality of some films involved; these (unpublicized) additions might add to that issue rather than fix it.

[Okri]

This article intriguingly says two things.

a) There are more people in the academy who joined in 2011 or later than those who were already in.

b) That the nature of the turnover was such that actors, who made up 20.3% in 2011 but only make 14.6% now.

Genuinely curious how we'll see that play out in this year and in years to come.

[rolotomasi99]

The films in each category are listed in order of likelihood. The number of total nominations are in brackets next to each film in the Best Picture category.

BEST PICTURE
Nomadland [6]
The Trial Of The Chicago 7 [6]
Mank [12]
Minari [8]
Promising Young Woman [4]
One Night In Miami [4]
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom [8]
Sound Of Metal [5]
The Father [5]
Judas And The Black Messiah [4]

DIRECTING
Nomadland
Mank
Minari
The Trial Of The Chicago 7
The Father

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Trial Of The Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Mank
Minari
Judas And The Black Messiah

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nomadland
One Night In Miami
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News Of The World

LEAD ACTRESS
Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman
Viola Davis - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby - Pieces Of A Woman
Andra Day - The U.S. vs Billie Holiday

LEAD ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins - The Father
Riz Ahmed - Sound Of Metal
Steven Yeun - Minari
Gary Oldman - Mank

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Olivia Coleman - The Father
Amanda Seyfried - Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy
Ellen Burstyn - Pieces Of A Woman

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Daniel Kaluuya - Judas And The Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr - One Night In Miami
Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial Of The Chicago 7
Paul Raci - Sound Of Metal
Alan Kim - Minari

FILM EDITING
The Trial Of The Chicago 7
Nomadland
Mank
Sound Of Metal
Promising Young Woman

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Mank
Nomadland
News Of The World
Cherry
Minari

ART DIRECTION
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan
News Of The World
The Personal History Of David Copperfield

COSTUME DESIGN
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Emma
Mulan
The U.S. vs Billie Holiday

ORIGINAL SCORE
Soul
Mank
News Of The World
Tenet
Minari

SOUND
Tenet
News Of The World
Sound Of Metal
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank

VISUAL EFFECTS
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One And Only Ivan
Birds Of Prey

MAKEUP
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Birds Of Prey
Pinocchio
Hillbilly Elegy
Mank

SONG
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Life Ahead
All In: The Fight for Democracy
Eurovision Song Contest

[Big Magilla]

anonymous1980 wrote
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Alan Kim, Minari
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

After years of predicting kid nominees, I finally hope it happens.

Me, too. These are my five picks as well. I had Kingsley Ben-Adir penciled in as the fifth nominee but I wasn't really comfortable with it because he's really his film's nominal lead. I had thought of Kim in the back of my mind but after seeing his acceptance speech at the otherwise repetitive Critics Choice awards, I was convinced he should be in the race. It was a terrific performance and that acceptance speech was really something. I hope, as he said, he gets to make more movies.

[Sabin]

anonymous1980 wrote
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Alan Kim, Minari
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

After years of predicting kid nominees, I finally hope it happens.

[anonymous1980]

My FINAL predictions!

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) David Parfitt, Philippe Carcassone and Jean-Louis Livi, producers
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.) Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler and Shaka King, producers.
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix) Todd Black and Denzel Washington, producers
Mank (Netflix) Cean Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, producers.
Minari (A24) Christina Oh, producer.
Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) Peter Spears, Chloe Zhao, Mollye Asher, Frances McDormand and Dan Janvey, producers
One Night in Miami (Amazon) Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder and Jody Klein, producers.
Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) Josey McNamara, Ben Browning, Ashley Fox and Emerald Fennell, producers.
Sound of Metal (Amazon) Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, producers.
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) Stuart M. Besser and Marc Platt, producers.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States v. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Alan Kim, Minari
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Berson, Shaka King and Keith & Kenny Lucas, Judas and the Black Messiah
Jack Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern and Nina Pedrad, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (based on the character "Borat Sagdiyev" created by Sacha Baron Cohen)
Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Father (based on the play by Florian Zeller)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (based on the play by August Wilson)
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (based on the book Nomadland: Surviving America in the 21st Century by Jessica Bruder)
Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami (based on his play)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Another Round, Denmark (directed by Thomas Vinterberg)
Dear Comrades, Russia (directed by Andrei Konchalovsky)
La Llorona, Guatemala (directed by Jayro Bustamante)
Quo Vadis, Aida?, Bosnia and Herzegovina (directed by Jasmila Žbanic)
A Sun, Taiwan (directed by Chung Mong-hung)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Onward (Disney/PIXAR) Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae
Over the Moon (Netflix) Glen Keane, Peilin Chou and Gennie Rim.
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Aardman) Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley.
Soul (Disney/PIXAR) Pete Docter and Dana Murray.
Wolfwalkers (GKids) Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Nora Twomey, Stephane Roelants and Paul Young.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon) Liz Garbus and Lisa Cortes.
Collective (HBO Europe) Alexander Nanau.
76 Days (MTV Documentary) Hao Wu and Weixi Chen
Time (Amazon) Garrett Bradley.
Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Films) David France.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Sean Bobbitt, Judas and the Black Messiah
Eric Messerschmidt, Mank
Darius Wolski, News of the World
Joshua James Richards, Nomadland
Hoyte von Hoytema, Tenet

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Yorgos Lamprinos, The Father
Kirk Baxter, Mank
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, Sound of Metal
Alan Baumgarten, The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
Kave Quinn (production design) & Stella Fox (set decoration), Emma
Mark Ricker (production design) & Karen O'Hara and Diana Stoughton (set decoration), Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Donald Graham Burt (production design) & Jan Pascale (set decoration), Mank
Grant Major (production design) & Anne Kuljian and Amber Richards (set decoration), Mulan
David Crank (production design) & Elizabeth Keenan (set decoration), News of the World

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Michael O'Connor, Ammonite
Alexandra Byrne, Emma
Ann Roth, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Trish Summerville, Mank
Bina Daigler, Mulan

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Lolita Ritmanis, Blizzard of Souls
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank
Emile Mosseri, Minari
James Newton Howard, News of the World
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste, Soul

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"Husavik", Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga; music by Atli Örvarsson & lyrics by Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Göransson, and Savan Kotecha.
"Hear My Voice", The Trial of the Chicago 7; music by Daniel Pemberton & lyrics by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste.
"Io Si (Seen)", The Life Ahead; music by Diane Warren & lyrics by Diane Warren, Laura Pausini and Niccolò Agliard.
"Speak Now", One Night in Miami... music & lyrics by Leslie Odom Jr. and Sam Ashworth
"Turntables", All In: The Fight for Democracy; music & lyrics by Janelle Monae, Nathaniel Irvin III, George A. Peters II

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND
Dan Hiland, Todd Beckett, Randy Thom and Bjorn Ole Schroeder, The Midnight Sky
William Miller, Mike Prestwood Smith and Oliver Tarney, News of the World
Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker, Soul
Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Carlos Cortés Navarrete and Michelle Couttolenc, Sound of Metal
Kevin O'Connell, Gary A. Rizzo, Willie Burton and Richard King, Tenet

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, David Watkins and Mark Bakowski, The Midnight Sky
Sean Andrew Faden, Hubert Matson, Julius Kwan and Andrew Langlands, Mulan
Nick Davis, Santiago Colomo, Greg Fisher and Caimin Bourne, The One and Only Ivan
Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, David Lee and Scott R. Fisher, Tenet
Ryan Laney, Reyffer Souza, John H. Han and Ray Huang, Welcome to Chechnya

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP & HAIR STYLING
Adruitha Lee, Nikki Helms and Vincent Van Dyke, Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
David Leroy Anderson, Matthew W. Mungle and Patricia Dehaney, Hillbilly Elegy
Matiki Anoff and Mia Neal, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Jennifer Aspinall and Kimberly Spiteri, Mank
Mark Coulier and Francesco Pegoretti, Pinocchio