FilmFan720 wrote
I will point out that I think you underestimate Ma Rainey; it may have missed DGA and BAFTA, but it has hit every other guild out there, including all of the below-the-line categories. It could get a lot of tech nominations -- Makeup, Costumes, Production Design, and even Sound all seem like shoo-ins -- and could win at least two below the line. I think it is "on solid ground" for a Best Picture slot.
HarryGoldfarb wrote
This makes sense... also, Fences experienced a similar path (missing DGA and underperforming at BAFTAs) but that did not prevented it from getting an AA BP nod.
You're certainly right. By virtue of its nominations, it probably deserves to be in the upper rung and I can see the argument for how it could be on safer ground than Sound of Metal for example.
But I'll say this, RE: Fences
If one were to rank the 2016 in terms of how safe their nominations were, I think Fences would basically end up where Ma Rainey... is. Really, I shouldn't have ranked them. I just wanted to list a crop of nominees that I thought were basically in the same position.
OscarGuy wrote:Plus, I think a lot of the flack the film has gotten was in directorial issues. I would say that missing DGA doesn't mean much. And it was also pretty clear from BAFTA that they weren't as enamored with the film, but we don't know that for sure without an actual broader consensus from the organization.
This makes sense... also, Fences experienced a similar path (missing DGA and underperforming at BAFTAs) but that did not prevented it from getting an AA BP nod.
On top of that, as it was already stated here, we can asume MRBB is going to perform better than Fences did in some below the line categories, so yes, I can see it getting a BP mention, no matter the issues we can have with the film.
"If you place an object in a museum, does that make this object a piece of art?" - The Square (2017)
Plus, I think a lot of the flack the film has gotten was in directorial issues. I would say that missing DGA doesn't mean much. And it was also pretty clear from BAFTA that they weren't as enamored with the film, but we don't know that for sure without an actual broader consensus from the organization.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Sabin -- great post! You covered a lot of this in detail!
I will point out that I think you underestimate Ma Rainey; it may have missed DGA and BAFTA, but it has hit every other guild out there, including all of the below-the-line categories. It could get a lot of tech nominations -- Makeup, Costumes, Production Design, and even Sound all seem like shoo-ins -- and could win at least two below the line. I think it is "on solid ground" for a Best Picture slot.
"Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good."
- Minor Myers, Jr.
Usually, this is where Mister Tee hops in. I'm going to beat him to the punch with a rundown of the Best Picture contenders. Now that we have our metrics (them being weighted as they are) how do we weigh the contenders?
GROUP ONE (heavy showing)
* THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
* MINARI
* NOMADLAND
I'm going to lift Nomadland up into this group despite a lack of a SAG nomination because it's won so darn much at this point. The Trial of the Chicago 7 has nominations in every major predictive precursor (DGA, PGA, SAG, BAFTA, WGA) plus a Golden Globe nomination. Minari is ineligible for a WGA award but has put up a strong showing. Likewise the same with Nomadland. These are the three films that are going to make it in.
GROUP TWO (solid ground)
4. PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
5. MANK
6. ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
These films should be in as well. Promising Young Woman is very close to being in the top camp. Its lack of a SAG nomination is the only reason when it's clearly an actor-friendly film, but with a DGA nomination over tough competition, only voters driven off by the material will keep Promising Young Woman out.
Mank has a Golden Globe nomination as well as a PGA and DGA nomination. The last time a film got a DGA nomination and missed out on Best Picture was The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, which also had a PGA nomination but no Golden Globe nomination. Technically it's in better standing. My ongoing questioning of whether or not people like this damn thing continues but it seems like a good bet for another reason as well: why didn't The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo get in? I think in the end it was unclear whether it was art or commerce. There's no question about that with Mank. This is classic (black &) white elephant Academy fare. Failed, I think, but perhaps enough will be fooled but it. I find comparisons to Bugsy a bit odd. Yes, it will receive a treasure trove of down-ballot nominations but Bugsy was filled with sex and violence, the kind of thing Mank would only write about. If anything, this is a film about a passive writer observing a world to be written about later like a Hollywood era Wonder Boys.
After a year of social unrest and racial awareness, I wondered which film or films the Academy would honor and it's fascinating that they seem to come in pairs. Two of them are adapted plays and two of them involve elements of 60s social justice. But none of them are really in the running to win. The plays seem to have a better shot and I suspect One Night in Miami has a slight leg-up because it's a DGA nominee (for Best First Feature) and it's harder to say about it "Loved the performances, just not the film." Everything comes together more in Regina King's film. But I can see that happening with Ma Rainey. Also, Kemp Powers might be the playwright du jour considering he's the co-director, co-writer and likely co-winner for Soul.
GROUP THREE (coin flips)
7. SOUND OF METAL
8. MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
9. JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
10. THE FATHER
11. BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
12. DA 5 BLOODS
This must have been the strongest crop of Best First Features nominated by the DGA to date, right? It's hard to know how to weigh them. I'd rank Sound of Metal just barely over Ma Rainey... because I think its in the running for nominations (and maybe wins) for Best Film Editing and Sound Mixing. There's a buzzy-ness to the craft and there's a lot of affection for Riz Ahmed. Ma Rainey is the opposite. Despite its nominations from the PGA, SAG, and WGA (weak year), I could see voters nominating the performances and calling it a day. As one of the two plays about black people expanded to film, it's the likeliest to win an Oscar (Boseman) it's on the outer limits of safe. If we get eight nominees (as has happened once or twice this decade), it's the likeliest nominee.
If we get nine, it's between Judas and the Black Messiah and The Father. Judas... is a late-starter and performing very well with PGA and WGA nominations as well as Daniel Kaluuya now an instant frontrunner. We have a few craft awards yet to give out but I think its chances are improving. The question is how much. Also in the running for the last spot (be it the 8th or 9th) is The Father, which doesn't seem to be distributed well at all. Screeners will certainly help. Its expected strong BAFTA showing as well as four Golden Globe nominations mean it has fans out there somewhere. It just doesn't' quite feel like it's standing out, does it?
And hovering just below are Borat with its surprise PGA nomination to go with its WGA nomination and Golden Globe wins. It's time to take the movie a little seriously than perhaps we had before but maybe not enough to seriously consider it. And Da 5 Bloods continues to prove a baffling awards contender this time showing up at the Baftas for one nomination, and who was it? Clarke Peters.
