DGA Forecast Thoughts

[Reza]

OUTSTANDING FEATURE FILM DIRECTOR:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal

OUTSTANDING FIRST-TIME FEATURE DIRECTOR:
Florian Zeller, The Father
Radha Blank, The Forty-Year-Old Version
Regina King, One Night in Miami...
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal

[Big Magilla]

Chloe Zhao is the only sure bet here.

I would like to see Lee Isaac Chung and Darius Marder nominated for Minari and Sound of Metal, respectively, as theirs are the two films that moved me the most this year. Those two and the three women, Zhao, Emerald Fennell and Regina King would fill out my ballot. Marder, Fennell and King are sure bets for First-Time Director which dims their chances for Best Director but one of them, along with Zhao, Chung and Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7 and David Fincher for Mank could pull off a double nod. I'm hoping it will be Marder.

OUTSTANDING FEATURE FILM DIRECTOR:
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

OUTSTANDING FIRST-TIME FEATURE DIRECTOR:
Florian Zeller, The Father
Regina King, One Night in Miami...
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
AND I HAVE NO IDEA

[Sabin]

Great writeup, Tee.

I think Aaron Sorkin is a shoo-in for a DGA nomination. An Oscar nomination is another story. They had the good sense to look away from Peter Farrelly for Green Book. I suspect they might do the same for Sorkin. I'd feel more confident in replacing him right now if there were any alternatives that made more sense, but they don't. We're talking about names like Emerald Fennell, Darius Marder, and Shaka King. We've never heard of these people before.

Also, Aaron Sorkin is a previous DGA nomination. Best First Feature for Molly's Game.

Like you, I'm also fairly confident in Lee Isaac Chung. I think Minari is going to do very well.

I wonder if Emerald Fennell is going to get the nomination. The DGA is not averse to nominating first time directors. They honored Jordan Peele and Bradley Cooper in both categories. But you say Fennell is more of a director's film than One Night in Miami. I disagree. I think it's more a writer's film competently directed (admittedly, a tough tone to juggle) whereas Regina King has been praised for her work with the material and with actors. And by virtue of the fact that they've at least heard of her I think she has a pretty good shot.

Emerald Fennell will get nominated. For Best First Feature. As will Regina King. But considering her stronger body of television work, I think it will be easier for them to nominate King than Fennell.

But if I'm going no guts no glory, I'm going with the slick Hollywood production that's opened a little late in the game but is picking up the slack.

Chloe Zhao, Nomandland
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah

[anonymous1980]

My predictions:

OUTSTANDING FEATURE FILM DIRECTOR:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

OUTSTANDING FIRST-TIME FEATURE DIRECTOR:
Florian Zeller, The Father
Regina King, One Night in Miami...
Max Barbakow, Palm Springs
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal

[Mister Tee]

As I noted elsewhere, Nomadland is the only film I feel absolutely comfortable including. Whatever issues DGA may have had in the past with female representation, they’re not going to pass over the near-unanimous critical choice.

Oddly, I feel next-most-optimistic about Minari, despite its being largely foreign-language. It seems to be the only movie besides Nomadland about which at least many appear enthusiastic. The SAG Ensemble nod, and the placement on PGA’s list, makes me reasonably confident Lee Isaac Chung’s name will be read out.

Next, for me, come the two films that have been turning up most places, but which Sabin wonders if anyone truly likes. The Trial of the Chicago 7 keeps being touted as a potential usurper of the best picture prize from Nomadland, but it hasn’t happened anywhere yet, and the certainty that the film is a nominee seems more faith- than evidence-based. Aaron Sorkin carries a lot of credibility as a writer, but I’m not sure he’s seen as much more than a newbie when it comes to directing, so I’m not 100% on his showing up here, despite the consensus.

David Fincher DOES have directing credibility (three previous DGA nominations); what he doesn’t have is a film that many seem to care about (even those pre-disposed to be). Mank has been getting in everywhere it needs to, but wins nothing beyond production design, and some (including me) have been braced for a comeuppance somewhere along the line. But maybe it’ll be like Bugsy: a similarly not-loved Hollywood-based film, that didn’t win much but got double-digit nominations, including all the glamour categories. Fincher’s stature is his best asset in the race: directors (especially those in the Academy branch) have a tendency to nominate long-established, previously-cited fellows, and Fincher is the year’s most high-profile.

After that, it’s a guessing game. One Night In Miami... has been turning up in all the right places, but Regina King is a relative novice, and it’s a small piece to get her into this high level of competition.

Promising Young Woman seems more a director’s sort of film -- though maybe for the more adventurous directors’ branch than the more populist DGA.

Sound of Metal has its cadre of fans around the other Guilds, which might translate into a citation here.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom is a minor affair, and George C. Wolfe has no real cinematic resume to boost him. But maybe we shouldn’t underestimate a film that’s going to get lead actor and actress nominations.

Judas and the Black Messiah is a fascinating case. A late arrival, it was shunted into “strictly the Kaluuya performance” category at the early nominations. But it appears to have burgeoning support, showing up at WGA and PGA. By morning, we may find it’s done better with BAFTA than at the Globes or SAG. And maybe, just maybe, there’s enough enthusiasm for it to vault past its earlier-on-the-ground competitors and make this list.

Finally…though everyone’s convinced it’s dead – and they’re probably correct – I’m not going to rule out a Spike Lee resurrection here, largely on the stick-with-the-veterans basis. There are so few previously-nominated directors in the race this year, I can’t summarily dismiss one who is.

So, gun to head, what’s my slate?

Chloe Zhao, Nomandland
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

Next in line: Darius Marder, Sound of Metal/Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah

But I expect to be more wrong than in most years.