Overall Globes Takes

[mlrg]

Saw Minari yesterday. It’s a nice little film. It’s well liked but it does not have the same track record of Parasite critics wise nor the same word of mouth.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Of course they don't pair winners together, but Hopkins is the whole show here. Colman is riding on his coattails. She's Fay Bainter to Bette Davis in Jezebel. Bainter would not have won for that without Davis winning. I'm sure there are other examples, but that's the one that comes quickest to mind.

Have you seen The Father? Also, what about Marcia Gay Harden winning for Pollack over Ed Harris?

Big Magilla wrote
The only thing Hopkins has won so far is a British Independent Award for which Colman wasn't even nominated. This just isn't her year. She even lost the Globe to her co-star in The Crown, Emma Corrin who deservedly won when all the bloggers were anticipating another win for Colman. It will be interesting to see what SAG does with that one where Colman, Corrin and Gillian Anderson are all nominated in the same category.

I'm not sure this has much to do with anything.

Big Magilla wrote
Another thing Oscar doesn't do as a rule is repeat itself. The Close-Colman thing was two years ago. That ship has sailed. It's Close vs. Youn now.

Come on, you don't know that. Shouldn't it be Close vs. Foster now?

Besides, you're really missing my point. All I am saying is that Olivia Colman has a shot for reasons I have detailed elsewhere and all I am hearing back is "No! We all know it's between Glenn Close for possibly her worst reviewed film vs. Youn Yuh-Jung, which is a precedent that has never happened. It can't happen for Olivia Colman or Maria Bakalova because somehow those are more implausible."

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
The only cases you can really make for that happening were Don Ameche in Cocoon and Jack Palance in City Slickers. In both cases, they were long-time vets in VERY popular, widely-seen summer movies, competing against fields that felt lackluster. The fact that they weren't critically supported didn't so much matter.

Yes, they were very popular. But Cocoon got a Globe nomination (Comedy Musical) and a DGA nomination for Ron Howard. And City Slickers was up for Best Comedy or Musical Film and Actor, and won Supporting Actor at the Golden Globes. That seems like a far cry from a 25% on Rotten Tomatoes

Mister Tee wrote
More often, you get the old veteran touted for a sentimental Oscar despite no enthusiasm for either their performances or their films, and I've watched a bunch of those -- Fred Astaire '74, Richard Burton '77, Lauren Bacall '96, Glenn Close '18 -- go down to ignominious defeat because, in the end, most people vote for films or performances they really like. Career points obviously factor in, but relying solely on career points is a fool's game. Close had a better chance of winning for a decently-praised The Wife than she does for the excoriated Hillbilly Elegy.

I'm feeling better and better about my seat out on that limb.

Mister Tee wrote
A reminder that, when Marina de Tavira was nominated for Roma, she was the first person nominated for a non-English-speaking supporting role since Valentina Cortese/Day for Night -- who was the only previous case. Jumping from that to someone winning for such a performance is a pretty big leap. Now, like you, I haven't seen Minari, and maybe it's so transcendent it makes that leap possible -- and, for sure, the influx of non-American voters in recent Academy voter expansion could make it more possible (as Bong Joon-ho could attest). But I'm always hesitant about predicting something that's never happened before.

I agree. That being said for a few reasons, it really does appear that there is a lot of enthusiasm for Minari out there. It might end up with more nominations than Parasite. So, we'll see. Maybe it ends up winning Best Supporting Actress -- and the whole thing.

[Sabin]

MaxWilder wrote
Waltz was in Tarantino movies that were box-office hits. I have no idea whether people are watching The Father. If a Close alternative emerges I imagine it will be Youn.

What is a box office hit this year?

Waltz was also in movies that were in English. I mean, we can throw comparatives around all day. None of this sways me that Olivia Colman (like Waltz, another well-liked foreigner) can't win again. I think she has a better chance than some are saying.

Also, yes, Youn can win.

[mlrg]

Hopkins is not going to win not for any flaws in his performance, but because Chadwick Boseman died and voters will find it irresistible to honor him for this final achievement.

This! Thank you! And also because of BLM.

[Mister Tee]

And, by the way, for those of us who've contended all year that having awards was borderline pointless in such a decimated year -- the audience appears to feel the same:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live- ... den-globes

[Mister Tee]

Of course they don't pair winners together, but Hopkins is the whole show here. Colman is riding on his coattails. She's Fay Bainter to Bette Davis in Jezebel. Bainter would not have won for that without Davis winning. I'm sure there are other examples, but that's the one that comes quickest to mind.

I really don't think you've thought this through, because there are SO MANY cases that prove the opposite -- that a performer can win in a supporting category, while their dominant, also-nominated lead loses. Just in the past quarter-century:

1998 - James Coburn wins, while NYFC winner Nolte loses
2000 - Marcia Gay Harden wins, while Ed Harris loses
2001 - Jim Broadbent wins while Judi Dench loses; Jennifer Connelly wins while Russell Crowe loses
2004 - Cate Blanchett wins while DiCaprio loses
2011 - Octavia Spencer wins while SAG winner Davis loses
2013 - Lupita Nyong'o wins while Ejiofor loses
2016 - Viola Davis wins while Denzel loses
2019 - Laura Dern wins while the two leads of her film lose

The reason why we had all these outcomes is obvious: competition in the supporting categories was less pitched than in the corresponding lead categories. But how is that not the case this year? Hopkins is not going to win not for any flaws in his performance, but because Chadwick Boseman died and voters will find it irresistible to honor him for this final achievement. That will have no effect on Colman's status; she still has a chance, because there's little enthusiasm for anyone contending for the supporting actress trophy. I'm not saying Colman is going to win. But ruling her out on the basis of Hopkins not winning isn't a persuasive argument.

[Big Magilla]

While we're on the subject of Yuh-Jung Youn, that is how she is billed in the opening and closing credits in Minari, not the other way around despite the way bloggers continue to put her surname first.

The other thing that drives me nuts about bloggers is the way they reference British stars with two surnames. It's Baron Cohen, Bonham Carter, and Scott Thomas, not Cohen, Carter, and Thomas for Sacha, Helena, and Kristin.

[Big Magilla]

The previous repeat winner, Christopher Waltz, was a sole winner in 2009 and his film also won Best Original Screenplay in 2012. The Father is definitely on the bubble as a Best Picture contender. But... y'know, so was Django Unchained.

Waltz was in Tarantino movies that were box-office hits. I have no idea whether people are watching The Father. If a Close alternative emerges I imagine it will be Youn.

Thank-you.

[Big Magilla]

Minari should win best picture. It’s so wonderful with some amazing performances.

I agree.

[Big Magilla]

Big Magilla wrote
I don't get this Close-Colman fixation. Colman has no chance without Hopkins and he's not winning. Close's competition is Youn who should win on merit, but it's too soon to call.

I guess it's just there's no reason to say that Colman has no chance without Hopkins winning. Oscar voting doesn't work like that and it never has. They don't pair up winners together.

Of course they don't pair winners together, but Hopkins is the whole show here. Colman is riding on his coattails. She's Fay Bainter to Bette Davis in Jezebel. Bainter would not have won for that without Davis winning. I'm sure there are other examples, but that's the one that comes quickest to mind.

The only thing Hopkins has won so far is a British Independent Award for which Colman wasn't even nominated. This just isn't her year. She even lost the Globe to her co-star in The Crown, Emma Corrin who deservedly won when all the bloggers were anticipating another win for Colman. It will be interesting to see what SAG does with that one where Colman, Corrin and Gillian Anderson are all nominated in the same category.

Another thing Oscar doesn't do as a rule is repeat itself. The Close-Colman thing was two years ago. That ship has sailed. It's Close vs. Youn now.

[Mister Tee]

rollotomasi99 wrote
I would also point out anti-Asian racism is in the news right now, and California-based voters might be particularly sensitive to how important MINARI is. I would not count Youn Yuh-jung out just yet.

I think that Minari might actually end up being the favorite to win the SAG Ensemble Award.

You could certainly be right about Youn Yuh-jung. I remain skeptical about her chances of winning. But I'm going to see Minari in the next day or so.

A reminder that, when Marina de Tavira was nominated for Roma, she was the first person nominated for a non-English-speaking supporting role since Valentina Cortese/Day for Night -- who was the only previous case. Jumping from that to someone winning for such a performance is a pretty big leap. Now, like you, I haven't seen Minari, and maybe it's so transcendent it makes that leap possible -- and, for sure, the influx of non-American voters in recent Academy voter expansion could make it more possible (as Bong Joon-ho could attest). But I'm always hesitant about predicting something that's never happened before.

[Mister Tee]

Glenn Close's best chance is if voters just say "Fuck it" and write her name down. That can happen. It's certainly not a compelling narrative but it can work.

The only cases you can really make for that happening were Don Ameche in Cocoon and Jack Palance in City Slickers. In both cases, they were long-time vets in VERY popular, widely-seen summer movies, competing against fields that felt lackluster. The fact that they weren't critically supported didn't so much matter.

More often, you get the old veteran touted for a sentimental Oscar despite no enthusiasm for either their performances or their films, and I've watched a bunch of those -- Fred Astaire '74, Richard Burton '77, Lauren Bacall '96, Glenn Close '18 -- go down to ignominious defeat because, in the end, most people vote for films or performances they really like. Career points obviously factor in, but relying solely on career points is a fool's game. Close had a better chance of winning for a decently-praised The Wife than she does for the excoriated Hillbilly Elegy.

[MaxWilder]

The previous repeat winner, Christopher Waltz, was a sole winner in 2009 and his film also won Best Original Screenplay in 2012. The Father is definitely on the bubble as a Best Picture contender. But... y'know, so was Django Unchained.

Waltz was in Tarantino movies that were box-office hits. I have no idea whether people are watching The Father. If a Close alternative emerges I imagine it will be Youn.

[flipp525]

Minari should win best picture. It’s so wonderful with some amazing performances.