AFI TOP FILMS

[Reza]

And Reza, I've explained on several occasions that I don't think you can simply look at the thin release schedule that existed last March 11th and presume that that would have been everything that would have been seen in calendar year 2020. There were films halfway through shooting that would have wrapped in plenty of time to be added, if studios were enthusiastic enough about them. And, had there been a standard film festival season from Cannes through Toronto, recent history says a substantially greater number of films, including sleeper titles, would have emerged and entered the Oscar race. As it is, we're subsisting on films that would have normally been second-tier contenders -- like Sound of Metal, which played Toronto in 2019 and wasn't deemed deserving of an awards release then -- plus, essentially, the entire Netfliix schedule, despite almost none of it provoking much enthusiasm.

Yes you are right. I stand corrected.

[Mister Tee]

Perhaps, and perhaps it’s a good thing to allow playing time for other filmmakers. Filmmakers become “varsity” in part because of talent and in part because white male filmmakers are privileged in a system that keeps boosting them up. Our tastes get shaped by those in power (including the Academy) who perpetually lift up certain voices and largely ignore others. Like so many other aspects of American culture the film world would be richer with a fair dose of decolonization.

I don't disagree with much of this as a goal. I just think the only reason it's turned out this way this year is because the pandemic shut down a significant amount of major production, and has kept other big items from being released (even mid-range ones like Wes Anderson's latest). The fact that the lists are dominated by women and people of color is not because doors have been opened for those groups, but because their (generally low-budget) films have been the ones that were exhibited (you can't really use the word "released") despite the general pull-back. I expect next year (or whenever the next "normal" year arrives), it'll be back to where it was. I'd rather have the breakthroughs you advocate for come about because they truly topped the competition -- not because they played against a vastly limited field.

And Reza, I've explained on several occasions that I don't think you can simply look at the thin release schedule that existed last March 11th and presume that that would have been everything that would have been seen in calendar year 2020. There were films halfway through shooting that would have wrapped in plenty of time to be added, if studios were enthusiastic enough about them. And, had there been a standard film festival season from Cannes through Toronto, recent history says a substantially greater number of films, including sleeper titles, would have emerged and entered the Oscar race. As it is, we're subsisting on films that would have normally been second-tier contenders -- like Sound of Metal, which played Toronto in 2019 and wasn't deemed deserving of an awards release then -- plus, essentially, the entire Netfliix schedule, despite almost none of it provoking much enthusiasm.

[Reza]

I agree that these are frontrunners. What’s remarkable about this list is that only 3 of the 10 were fully directed by white men. The other 7 were directed (or co-directed in the case of Soul) by BIPOC folks, two of them women. If most of these indeed go on to Oscar nominations it will feel that we have moved past “Oscars so white” in fairly rapid fashion.

I know I'm the only one who seems to care about this, but this will have happened to a significant degree because the varsity stayed off the field this year.

Please correct me if I'm wrong but I can think of only one member of the varsity who stayed off the field this year. Spielberg (West Side Story). If you stretch the field you can maybe add Denis Villeneuve (Dune). Even without the pandemic the field would not have been much different and most of these very same films would have appeared on these year-ens lists.

[danfrank]

I agree that these are frontrunners. What’s remarkable about this list is that only 3 of the 10 were fully directed by white men. The other 7 were directed (or co-directed in the case of Soul) by BIPOC folks, two of them women. If most of these indeed go on to Oscar nominations it will feel that we have moved past “Oscars so white” in fairly rapid fashion.

I know I'm the only one who seems to care about this, but this will have happened to a significant degree because the varsity stayed off the field this year.

Perhaps, and perhaps it’s a good thing to allow playing time for other filmmakers. Filmmakers become “varsity” in part because of talent and in part because white male filmmakers are privileged in a system that keeps boosting them up. Our tastes get shaped by those in power (including the Academy) who perpetually lift up certain voices and largely ignore others. Like so many other aspects of American culture the film world would be richer with a fair dose of decolonization.

[Mister Tee]

I agree that these are frontrunners. What’s remarkable about this list is that only 3 of the 10 were fully directed by white men. The other 7 were directed (or co-directed in the case of Soul) by BIPOC folks, two of them women. If most of these indeed go on to Oscar nominations it will feel that we have moved past “Oscars so white” in fairly rapid fashion.

I know I'm the only one who seems to care about this, but this will have happened to a significant degree because the varsity stayed off the field this year.

[danfrank]

I agree that these are frontrunners. What’s remarkable about this list is that only 3 of the 10 were fully directed by white men. The other 7 were directed (or co-directed in the case of Soul) by BIPOC folks, two of them women. If most of these indeed go on to Oscar nominations it will feel that we have moved past “Oscars so white” in fairly rapid fashion.

[Sabin]

* Da 5 Bloods
* Judas and the Black Messiah
* Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
* Mank
* Minari
* Nomadland
* One Night in Miami
* Soul
* Sound of Metal
* The Trial of the Chicago 7
SPECIAL AWARD: Hamilton

Usually a fair amount of overlap. The big loser is probably Promising Young Woman but beyond that nothing surprising. I don't think The Father is eligible for this award.

Last year, they "predicted" 8 (with Parasite's special award) of the eventual 9, missing only Ford v. Ferrari.
In 2018, they "predicted" only 6 (with Roma's special award) of the eventual 8, missing only Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice.
In 2017, they "predicted" 7 of the eventual 9, missing only Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread.

So, we can expect probably most of the eventual nominees to be here. I think it's fair to say we can cross out Soul first.