Reza wrote
Best Picture
Da 5 Bloods
The Father
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
The Mauritanian
Minari
One Night in Miami
Nomadland
Soul
The Trial of the Chicago 7
I have some doubts about STX's ability to run an Oscar campaign (The Mauritanian) but if there's one year where they could get in...
Also, Soul's reception seems to be a little less enthusiastic than anticipated.
What would be your predictions for Best Film Editing at this juncture?
Anonymous' predictions in October were a good look at the way things stood then, but Reza's new list is a good example of the way things look now.
Best Picture
Call me crazy, but I think Pinocchio has a better chance of being nominated than Da 5 Bloods.
Best Actor
I would replace Gary Oldman with Steven Yeun in Minari, leaving Anthony Hopkins as the only old man standing. I'm especially happy to see Kingsley Ben-Adir picking up steam. I watched him through five seasons of Vera from 2014-2018 in which he played the medical examiner to Brenda Blethyn's detective in which he more than held his own against the series' intrepid star. There have been lots of good actors in detective series over the years, but few breakthrough to the big leagues. Glad to see he's one of them.
Best Actress
Carey Mulligan is getting a lot of buzz for Promising Young Woman. I can see her replacing either Loren or Pfeiffer,
Best Supporting Actor
I thought if Jodie Foster wasn't the star of The Mauritanian, Tahir Rahim was, but if neither of them is, then it must be Benedict Cumberbatch with that godawful mush in his mouth fake Southern accent that drove me nuts in the trailer. David Strahairn has a nothing role in Nomadland. Call me crazy again, but I think Roberto Benigni could pull off a nomination for his Geppetto in Pinocchio.
Best Supporting Actress
There seems to be a late-breaking push for Candice Bergen to be nominated for Let Them All Talk which drops today on HBO Max which no one watches so she's probably not a real threat, which is good because I don't know which of these she would knock out at this point.
Best Director
Fincher is shaky and King strikes me as a long shot. No one is talking about Kevin Macdonald for The Mauritanian but if the film really clicks, then Emeric Pressburger's grandson has a shot at taking home a second Oscar to go with the one he won for a 1999 documentary.
Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
The Mauritanian
Minari
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Best Supporting Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actress
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Womam
David Fincher, Mank
Florian Zeller, The Father
Chloë Zhao, Nomadland
Last edited by Reza on Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Well, I participated in my annual Fantasy "Oscar" League and I fucked up. I made the same mistake I almost always make. I try to prop something up and it backfires on me. Last year, I tried to prop up 1917 and ended up buying it for $27 which at the time seemed like an absolutely foolish mistake. It ended up saving me in the competition, which I won by a single point. Last year, my hand included The Irishman and 1917. Keep in mind, but League tracks critics awards, guilds, precursor awards, and nominations. So, those two films cleaned up. I purchased The Irishman for $59, and the rest of my hand were things for $1 plus Honeyland for $6. My closest competition was a guy who had Parasite, Pain and Glory, Hustlers, Little Women, Uncut Gems, and a few other things that aren't worth talking about but a very good hand that I beat by one single point. The name of the game is down ballot nominations. 1917 easily saved me.
This year, I tried to prop up Da 5 Bloods to get somebody to go too far in with it and I ended up eating it for $25. Bad move. I want to come back to a possible silver lining with it a little bit later but Da 5 Bloods is unlikely to be worth $25. I grabbed The Father, Palm Springs, Totally Under Control, Pieces of a Woman, Boys State, Birds of Prey, Save Yourselves, She Dies Tomorrow, and my last blue chip winner... Nomadland for $44. I had to take Nomadland for $44 otherwise my closest competitors would've grabbed it and they already had a combination of The Trial of the Chicago 7, Soul, and Mank. Besides, Nomadland is likely to do something but it is not ideal because it is limited in the number of actors will be nominated nor is it likely to do exceptionally well down-ballot. So, I am very likely going to lose. I am up against someone with Trial of the Chicago 7, Soul, The Midnight Sky, and scattered others, and someone with Mank, Minari, News of the World, Borat, and scattered others.
We'll come back to a silver lining I see for Da 5 Bloods a little later.
What's interesting about my contest is that thus far a movie has to cross the 30 points threshold to get a Best Picture nomination. That is very likely to break this year when Tenet does substantially better than 30 points and doesn't end up with a Best Picture nomination (unless it does?). Every Oscar race has about two juggernauts, which is to say movies that sweep up all the points (over 70), three or four majors (50-70), and scattered welterweights (30-50). In 2018, it was Roma and The Favourite that got 79 and 75 points. Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, and A Star is Born got 53, 56, and 56. Black Panther, Blackkklansman, If Beale Street Could Talk, and Vice got between 30 and 50. In 2019, the three juggernauts were Parasite, 1917, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. They got 70, 76 and 77. The majors were Marriage Story and Joker with 51 and 65. And Little Women, Ford v Ferrari, and Jojo Rabbit got between 30 and 50. This seems obvious to say today but at the time, but at the time it's just guesswork. And they accounted for all the Best Picture nominees.
So, what's going to end up with at least 30 points?
My take on the Oscar season is this: the two juggernauts are likely going to be The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Mank. They are going to get a ridiculous point totals across the board based on the number of actors and down-ballot possibilities. And I have neither, lol. But those are the two that are going to be worth the most points. It's possible that Mank ends up being worth more points than any contender we've have so far, topping 80. But those are the two.
The majors (50-70):
- Nomadland is likely to factor in strongly at Gotham, Film Independent, and the critics awards. It might play at ASC and ACE, and because it's a contemporary film it might get in for ADG and CDG as well. Not sure if Chloe Zhao is WGA. We'll see. Probably a DGA and PGA nomination, but no SAG, likely 3-4 noms at Globe, and limited downballot at BAFTA and The Oscars. So, I think it's prestigious enough to be considered a major.
- We have not seen Ma Rainey or News of the World. We really don't know how good either of them are. At this point last year, we really didn't know about 1917 either. News of the World could follow suit. In general, I don't know about that one so I'm going to hold off judgment. Ma Rainey, to me, looks like a play. It's likely to go over in some capacity but we really don't know. My guess is Ma Rainey is either a Major or a Welterweight. News of the World is either a Major or nothing.
The welterweights (30-50):
- One Night in Miami is likely to factor in strongly at Gotham and Film Independent. Probably not critics. It could play well at the Golden Globes. No ASC, but possibly across the boar with the guilds, strong at SAG. Possibly a DGA and PGA nomination -- it's King's first film. The BAFTAs are a question mark (to put it bluntly: they don't love black-themed films) but medium down-ballot Oscars plus acting noms. I put it at high welterweight but it could rise.
- Soul is going to get some guild traction everywhere because it's animated. It's going to likely win every animated prize. Maybe win some music awards. If Soul turns out to be the movie that people desperately love and need at the end of the year, maybe it does a little better but we're looking at a high ceiling for PIXAR film like Up or WALL*E.
- Tenet ironically is going to be worth a lot. It's just going to pick up a slew of guild nominations and wins, plus down-ballot across the board. Even if it's not up for Best Picture, it's going to be worth a lot. Maybe even a major.
- Minari is likely to factor in strongly at Gotham, Film Independent, and maybe the critics awards. It's not likely to play out strongly at the guilds. DGA and PGA are iffy. SAG is possible. The Globes are possible, and limited downballot at BAFTA and The Oscars. We're looking at low welterweight if it cracks.
- The Father could factor a little at Gotham, Film Independent, and maybe the critics awards. It's not likely to do well at the guilds. It's not likely to do terribly well at the Golden Globes or SAG but it will make a presence for acting, maybe it creeps into Best Motion Picture: Drama. It's British so it could pick up a surprise BAFTA nomination but limited down-ballot. Possibly PGA. Like Minari, it's likely a low welterweight if it cracks. I'm starting to think it won't.
I'm not including Hillbilly Elegy. But of the welterweights, it's fair to say that The Father and Minari really might not end up with 30 points which (traditionally) puts their standing in the race a little lower.
So, does Da 5 Bloods factor in anywhere? Well, if I do the whole breakdown it's a coin flip. On a good day, it's a solid welterweight (maybe those guild noms help it) but that requires the Academy remembering it at all. The best chance of that happening (I don't know how else to say this) is if they're just not impressed by One Night in Miami or Ma Rainey and rally around Da 5 Bloods as an important black-themed film in this year. Which could happen. Both One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey are plays. I have friends who have seen One Night in Miami and are not fond of it. And Ma Rainey... we'll find out. Either way, a low welterweight if it cracks but who knows.
The only way I win this thing is if The Father and Da 5 Bloods turn out to be welterweights (which might mean Ma Rainey has to stiff so Hopkins can win and Da 5 Bloods can get in), if News of the World flops, if Minari doesn't go over, and if Soul doesn't crossover. Even then, I think I'm looking at third if I'm lucky.
Big Magilla wrote:Enough with this Hillbilly bashing. Please make any further comments regarding your like or dislike of this film, that no one has seen yet, in the thread DWS has set up for Ron Howard's film and leave this thread for general Oscar discussions.
My comments were about the book and were totally warranted given the discussion we’re having.
I see you’ve locked in on your choice for this year’s “Old Woman du Jour.”
Calm down and have fun.
My comment wasn't directed at you. Also, if you read the thread DWS set up, you will see that I have not made any personal picks as yet, not having seen anything of consequence.
Big Magilla wrote:Enough with this Hillbilly bashing. Please make any further comments regarding your like or dislike of this film, that no one has seen yet, in the thread DWS has set up for Ron Howard's film and leave this thread for general Oscar discussions.
My comments were about the book and were totally warranted given the discussion we’re having.
I see you’ve locked in on your choice for this year’s “Old Woman du Jour.”
Calm down and have fun.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
Sabin wrote:
Does anybody think News of the World is going to be any good? The trailer looks very hokey.
Hokey, no, but for some reason Tom Hanks' character reminds me of Tommy Lee Jones in The Missing, Ron Howard's failed 1993 Oscar contender. It might get a few nominations, but it doesn't look like a winner.
Reza wrote
But I'm more intrigued by why Minari is getting so much traction.
Because it won the U.S. Dramatic Grand Jury prize and the US Dramatic Audience Award at Sundance and is being distributed by A24 and people seem to really like it?
Minari is winning over skeptics. It's getting rave reviews for director Lee Isaac Chung, actors Seven Yeun and Yeri Han as the struggling couple, Andy Kim as their young son, and especially Yuh-Jung Youn, the Korean Meryl Streep, as the grandmother. Probably not strong enough to win anything at the Oscars but maybe enough to land a number of high profile nominations. It could, however, sweep the Spirit Independent Awards.
Reza wrote
But I'm more intrigued by why Minari is getting so much traction.
Because it won the U.S. Dramatic Grand Jury prize and the US Dramatic Audience Award at Sundance and is being distributed by A24 and people seem to really like it?
