My first Oscar predictions!

[criddic3]

I would point two things out: Hopkins has never won at SAG, which has been mentioned elsewhere.

That feels more like trivia than an injustice to be corrected. (The SAG awards did not exist when Silence of the Lambs swept the Academy Awards.) Does “SAG history” really weigh on voters’ minds?

Good point, but I do think some voters will want to give Hopkins something. At least at the Globes he got a Cecil B. DeMille Award, but at SAG he been nominated numerous times without even one win. Glenn Close surely won hers partly for that reason two years ago.

[MaxWilder]

I would point two things out: Hopkins has never won at SAG, which has been mentioned elsewhere.

That feels more like trivia than an injustice to be corrected. (The SAG awards did not exist when Silence of the Lambs swept the Academy Awards.) Does “SAG history” really weigh on voters’ minds?

[criddic3]

Normally I'm the one saying, let's not lock anything in yet. But I think Boseman is a lock, not just a front-runner. If there was going to be an alternative choice, it likely would have started with the Globes. I certainly don't expect the Broadcasters to do anything but jump on the bandwagon -- promoting landslides are their raison d'etre. After that, SAG seems pretty obvious; who else are they gong to go for? The only possible bump in the road is BAFTA, who MIGHT go for Hopkins. But that would be akin to their choice of Colin Firth/A Single Man in 2009: just a quirky hometown choice, which did nothing to impede Jeff Bridges' smooth ride to the Oscar.

Boseman would be a front-runner had he, like Oldman in 2017, been merely the bloggers' hot prospect without critics' support. The fact that Boseman also won critics' prizes, including the very legit one from LA, makes him, in my view, unbeatable. And, as you know, I don't say such things lightly.

Had Boseman not died, it'd be a potentially different race -- I think Delroy Lindo might be a far more significant presence. But we are where we are.

I would point two things out: Hopkins has never won at SAG, which has been mentioned elsewhere.
And there is precedent for not awarding a posthumous prize. James Dean was nominated twice after he died, and he lost both times.
Granted, both actors he lost to --Borgnine and Brynner-- were in best picture nominees (East of Eden wasn't, while Giant was) and the second time he was competing with his co-star Rock Hudson. Still, there is a scenario where you'd think sentiment would carry him through once. And his co-star Jo Van Fleet won the first time out. That was admittedly a long time ago, and Peter Finch's win for Network and Heath Ledger's win for The Dark Knight might be stronger examples. You could also make the case that Boseman's resume is longer and that he has been in the hunt for an Oscar nomination several times before now. I do think that the competition is fiercer this year than it was against Ledger, whose high-profile role was in one of the biggest box-office hits of the year. I think the Academy is likely to honor Boseman but it's not totally out of the question that either Hopkins or Ahmed could make it.

[Sabin]

Reza wrote

anonymous1980 wrote
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Tier 1: Olivia Colman.
Tier 2: Maria Bakalova, Glenn Close, Amanda Seyfried.
Tier 3: Ellen Burstyn, Youn Yun-jung, Helena Zengel.
Tier 4: Candice Bergen, Olivia Cooke, Dominique Fishback, Jodie Foster, Valerie Mahaffey, Saoirse Ronan, Swankie.

Maybe now Jodie Foster and Maria Bakalova should switch tiers.

Why wouldn't Foster just join Bakalova? Bakalova has multiple wins from major film critics group, a Globe nomination, and a SAG nomination -- the latter of which is the only thing that involves overlap with the Academy? Jodie Foster doesn't have a SAG nomination, nor does Amanda Seyfried. Come to think of it, Youn Yun-jung and Helena Zengel both have SAG nominations. Why aren't they in over Seyfried?

[Reza]

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Tier 1: Olivia Colman.
Tier 2: Maria Bakalova, Glenn Close, Amanda Seyfried.
Tier 3: Ellen Burstyn, Young Yun-jung, Helena Zengel.
Tier 4: Candice Bergen, Olivia Cooke, Dominique Fishback, Jodie Foster, Valerie Mahaffey, Saoirse Ronan, Swankie.

Maybe now Jodie Foster and Maria Bakalova should switch tiers.

[Reza]

And I'm not sure in general how Da 5 Bloods is going to do. It might not get any nominations.

Now that would be sad indeed.

[Sabin]

Reza wrote
Is Chadwick Boseman really a lock to win the Best Actor Oscar?

He has been cited on many critics' lists in both categories - as lead in Ma Rainey and in support in Da 5 Bloods. Is it at all possible the Academy nominates him twice and lets that be his reward leaving the wins to go to Hopkins and Kaluuya?

I'll say this also, Reza. I'm not sure Boseman is getting in for Da 5 Bloods. It's definitely on the bubble of a nomination. Boseman's performance in Ma Rainey clearly the more "actor-y" performance that would get nominations. Best Supporting Actor is usually a fairly competitive category year after year. This year is no different.

And I'm not sure in general how Da 5 Bloods is going to do. It might not get any nominations.

[Mister Tee]

Reza wrote
Is Chadwick Boseman really a lock to win the Best Actor Oscar?

No, but I think he's the frontrunner.
...

Chadwick Boseman isn't a lock but he has to be very strongly favored at this point.

Normally I'm the one saying, let's not lock anything in yet. But I think Boseman is a lock, not just a front-runner. If there was going to be an alternative choice, it likely would have started with the Globes. I certainly don't expect the Broadcasters to do anything but jump on the bandwagon -- promoting landslides are their raison d'etre. After that, SAG seems pretty obvious; who else are they gong to go for? The only possible bump in the road is BAFTA, who MIGHT go for Hopkins. But that would be akin to their choice of Colin Firth/A Single Man in 2009: just a quirky hometown choice, which did nothing to impede Jeff Bridges' smooth ride to the Oscar.

Boseman would be a front-runner had he, like Oldman in 2017, been merely the bloggers' hot prospect without critics' support. The fact that Boseman also won critics' prizes, including the very legit one from LA, makes him, in my view, unbeatable. And, as you know, I don't say such things lightly.

Had Boseman not died, it'd be a potentially different race -- I think Delroy Lindo might be a far more significant presence. But we are where we are.

[Sabin]

Reza wrote
Is Chadwick Boseman really a lock to win the Best Actor Oscar?

He has been cited on many critics' lists in both categories - as lead in Ma Rainey and in support in Da 5 Bloods. Is it at all possible the Academy nominates him twice and lets that be his reward leaving the wins to go to Hopkins and Kaluuya?

No, but I think he's the frontrunner. He's won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama. He won the Los Angeles Film Critics Association award. The other two major critics awards (New York and National Society) went to Delroy Lindo, who wasn't nominated for a SAG or a Globe. So, he is unlikely tow in. And the National Board of Review went to Riz Ahmed who certainly has a chance. I personally think he's a bit overrated in the film.

Obviously, we don't know until the envelope is opened. What's going to inform our opinion?
- The Screen Actor's Guild are going to announce their winner in a few weeks. With three nominations for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, I would be astonished if that group doesn't vote for Chadwick Boseman. So, we're looking at a scenario where Chadwick Boseman has the LAFCA, the Globe, and the SAG Award.
- The BAFTA haven't announced their nominees yet. Boseman will likely be nominated. In the last ten years, the only time where their Best Actor choice disagreed with a Globe AND SAG winner was Chiwetel Ejiofer for 12 Years a Slave, y'know, because he's a Brit. They still went for Matthew McConaughey. So, even if they do choose Anthony Hopkins, history says Boseman will still win.

Chadwick Boseman isn't a lock but he has to be very strongly favored at this point.

[Reza]

Is Chadwick Boseman really a lock to win the Best Actor Oscar?

He has been cited on many critics' lists in both categories - as lead in Ma Rainey and in support in Da 5 Bloods. Is it at all possible the Academy nominates him twice and lets that be his reward leaving the wins to go to Hopkins and Kaluuya?

[Sabin]

anonymous1980 wrote
Here's what I think the state of the Oscar race is currently in pre-Globes/SAG/guilds:

Tier 1 = Near 100% or 100% nomination guaranteed.
Tier 2 = Nomination likely but a snub wouldn't be TOO surprising.
Tier 3 = 50/50, has a fighting chance but neither too likely or guaranteed.
Tier 4 = Possible long shots that could surprise on nomination morning.

Great work! Can you give us your best guesses for top five in each category?

[anonymous1980]

Here's what I think the state of the Oscar race is currently in pre-Globes/SAG/guilds:

Tier 1 = Near 100% or 100% nomination guaranteed.
Tier 2 = Nomination likely but a snub wouldn't be TOO surprising.
Tier 3 = 50/50, has a fighting chance but neither too likely or guaranteed.
Tier 4 = Possible long shots that could surprise on nomination morning.

BEST PICTURE
Tier 1: Mank, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Tier 2: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Minari, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman.
Tier 3: Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, News of the World, Soul, The Sound of Metal.
Tier 4: Another Round, First Cow, Hillbilly Elegy (not kidding), Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Tenet.

BEST DIRECTOR
Tier 1: David Fincher, Chloe Zhao.
Tier 2: Aaron Sorkin.
Tier 3: Lee Isaac Chung, Emerald Fennell, Paul Greengrass, Regina King, Spike Lee, George C. Wolfe, Florian Zeller.
Tier 4: Eliza Hittman, Shaka King, Darius Marder, Christopher Nolan, Kelly Reichert, Thomas Vinterberg.

BEST ACTOR
Tier 1: Chadwick Boseman, Anthony Hopkins.
Tier 2: Riz Ahmed, Gary Oldman.
Tier 3: Kingsley Ben-Adir, Tom Hanks, Delroy Lindo, Steven Yeun.
Tier 4: Ben Affleck, Mads Mikkelsen, Tahar Rahim, LaKeith Stanfield, John David Washington.

BEST ACTRESS
Tier 1: Viola Davis, Frances McDormand, Carey Mulligan.
Tier 2: Vanessa Kirby.
Tier 3: Amy Adams, Andra Day, Sophia Loren, Zendaya.
Tier 4: Nicole Beharie, Sidney Flanagan, Yeri Han, Michelle Pfieffer, Meryl Streep, Anya Taylor-Joy, Kate Winslet.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tier 1: Daniel Kaluuya, Leslie Odom Jr.
Tier 2: Sacha Baron Cohen
Tier 3: Chadwick Boseman, Jared Leto, Bill Murray, Paul Raci, David Strathairn.
Tier 4: Bo Burnham, Colman Domingo, Alan Kim, Frank Langella, Mark Rylance, Stanley Tucci, Glynn Turman.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Tier 1: Olivia Colman.
Tier 2: Maria Bakalova, Glenn Close, Amanda Seyfried.
Tier 3: Ellen Burstyn, Young Yun-jung, Helena Zengel.
Tier 4: Candice Bergen, Olivia Cooke, Dominique Fishback, Jodie Foster, Valerie Mahaffey, Saoirse Ronan, Swankie.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Tier 1: Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Tier 2: Mank, Minari.
Tier 3: Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Palm Springs, The Sound of Metal, Soul.
Tier 4: Another Round, The 40 Year Old Version, On the Rocks, Tenet.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Tier 1: Nomadland
Tier 2: The Father, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, One Night in Miami
Tier 3: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, First Cow, i'm thinking of ending things, News of the World, The White Tiger
Tier 4: Emma, Hillbilly Elegy (not kidding), The Mauritanian, The Personal Life of David Copperfield.

[Sabin]

Pretty soon we'll have Golden Globe and SAG winners as well as some very key precursors. I'll just update my predictions here. My "Go big or go home" stab in the dark is that Judas and the Black Messiah is a late-starter.


BEST PICTURE
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6: Promising Young Woman
7. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
8. Sound of Metal
9. Judas and the Black Messiah
10. The Father

BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
NOTE: not at all sold on Sophia Loren but that short film will boost her profile. Mainly, guessing she's a better bet than Amy Adams. Wondering if Han Ye-ri might be a good bet for Minari.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto, The Little Things
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night in Miami

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
Soul
Tenet

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Hear My Voice” / The Trial of the Chicago 7
"Rain Song" / Minari
“lo Si (Seen)” / The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” / One Night in Miami
“Turntables” / All In: The Fight for Democracy

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Another Round
Collective
La Llorona
A Sun
Two of Us

BEST ANIMATED FILM
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Boys State
Collective
Crip Camp
Time
Welcome to Chechnya

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Tenet

BEST FILM EDITING
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Tenet

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Emma.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Personal History of David Copperfield

BEST MAKEUP
Birds of Prey
Hillbilly Elegy
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan

BEST SOUND
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Sound of Metal
Tenet

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Soul
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya

[Reza]

A few changes / revisions now that the Globes and SAG have pitched in.

Best Picture
Da 5 Bloods
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
The Mauritanian
Minari
One Night in Miami
*Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Actor
*Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
*Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Best Supporting Actor
*Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Jesus and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actress
*Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
*Chloë Zhao, Nomadland

[Sabin]

My critic buddy just saw Judas and the Black Messiah and said it is absolutely going to factor into the Oscar race. He said it's excellently written and directed. Kaluuya and Stanfield are really co-leads. Stanfield is excellent but less likely to factor in because his character is so weak. The film suffers a little because they don't really have the strongest relationship between them but it is an across the board excellent, gripping piece of entertainment.