My first Oscar predictions!

For the films of 2020
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby Sabin » Tue Feb 23, 2021 12:14 pm

anonymous1980 wrote
Here's what I think the state of the Oscar race is currently in pre-Globes/SAG/guilds:

Tier 1 = Near 100% or 100% nomination guaranteed.
Tier 2 = Nomination likely but a snub wouldn't be TOO surprising.
Tier 3 = 50/50, has a fighting chance but neither too likely or guaranteed.
Tier 4 = Possible long shots that could surprise on nomination morning.

Great work! Can you give us your best guesses for top five in each category?
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR

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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby anonymous1980 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:01 am

Here's what I think the state of the Oscar race is currently in pre-Globes/SAG/guilds:

Tier 1 = Near 100% or 100% nomination guaranteed.
Tier 2 = Nomination likely but a snub wouldn't be TOO surprising.
Tier 3 = 50/50, has a fighting chance but neither too likely or guaranteed.
Tier 4 = Possible long shots that could surprise on nomination morning.

BEST PICTURE
Tier 1: Mank, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Tier 2: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Minari, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman.
Tier 3: Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, News of the World, Soul, The Sound of Metal.
Tier 4: Another Round, First Cow, Hillbilly Elegy (not kidding), Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Tenet.

BEST DIRECTOR
Tier 1: David Fincher, Chloe Zhao.
Tier 2: Aaron Sorkin.
Tier 3: Lee Isaac Chung, Emerald Fennell, Paul Greengrass, Regina King, Spike Lee, George C. Wolfe, Florian Zeller.
Tier 4: Eliza Hittman, Shaka King, Darius Marder, Christopher Nolan, Kelly Reichert, Thomas Vinterberg.

BEST ACTOR
Tier 1: Chadwick Boseman, Anthony Hopkins.
Tier 2: Riz Ahmed, Gary Oldman.
Tier 3: Kingsley Ben-Adir, Tom Hanks, Delroy Lindo, Steven Yeun.
Tier 4: Ben Affleck, Mads Mikkelsen, Tahar Rahim, LaKeith Stanfield, John David Washington.

BEST ACTRESS
Tier 1: Viola Davis, Frances McDormand, Carey Mulligan.
Tier 2: Vanessa Kirby.
Tier 3: Amy Adams, Andra Day, Sophia Loren, Zendaya.
Tier 4: Nicole Beharie, Sidney Flanagan, Yeri Han, Michelle Pfieffer, Meryl Streep, Anya Taylor-Joy, Kate Winslet.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tier 1: Daniel Kaluuya, Leslie Odom Jr.
Tier 2: Sacha Baron Cohen
Tier 3: Chadwick Boseman, Jared Leto, Bill Murray, Paul Raci, David Strathairn.
Tier 4: Bo Burnham, Colman Domingo, Alan Kim, Frank Langella, Mark Rylance, Stanley Tucci, Glynn Turman.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Tier 1: Olivia Colman.
Tier 2: Maria Bakalova, Glenn Close, Amanda Seyfried.
Tier 3: Ellen Burstyn, Young Yun-jung, Helena Zengel.
Tier 4: Candice Bergen, Olivia Cooke, Dominique Fishback, Jodie Foster, Valerie Mahaffey, Saoirse Ronan, Swankie.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Tier 1: Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Tier 2: Mank, Minari.
Tier 3: Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Palm Springs, The Sound of Metal, Soul.
Tier 4: Another Round, The 40 Year Old Version, On the Rocks, Tenet.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Tier 1: Nomadland
Tier 2: The Father, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, One Night in Miami
Tier 3: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, First Cow, i'm thinking of ending things, News of the World, The White Tiger
Tier 4: Emma, Hillbilly Elegy (not kidding), The Mauritanian, The Personal Life of David Copperfield.

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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby Sabin » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:14 pm

Pretty soon we'll have Golden Globe and SAG winners as well as some very key precursors. I'll just update my predictions here. My "Go big or go home" stab in the dark is that Judas and the Black Messiah is a late-starter.


BEST PICTURE
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6: Promising Young Woman
7. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
8. Sound of Metal
9. Judas and the Black Messiah
10. The Father

BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
NOTE: not at all sold on Sophia Loren but that short film will boost her profile. Mainly, guessing she's a better bet than Amy Adams. Wondering if Han Ye-ri might be a good bet for Minari.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto, The Little Things
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night in Miami

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Minari
Soul
Tenet

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Hear My Voice” / The Trial of the Chicago 7
"Rain Song" / Minari
“lo Si (Seen)” / The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” / One Night in Miami
“Turntables” / All In: The Fight for Democracy

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Another Round
Collective
La Llorona
A Sun
Two of Us

BEST ANIMATED FILM
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Boys State
Collective
Crip Camp
Time
Welcome to Chechnya

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Tenet

BEST FILM EDITING
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Tenet

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Emma.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Personal History of David Copperfield

BEST MAKEUP
Birds of Prey
Hillbilly Elegy
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan

BEST SOUND
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Sound of Metal
Tenet

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Soul
Tenet
Welcome to Chechnya
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR

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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby Reza » Thu Feb 04, 2021 12:47 pm

A few changes / revisions now that the Globes and SAG have pitched in.

Best Picture
Da 5 Bloods
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
The Mauritanian
Minari
One Night in Miami
*Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Actor
*Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
*Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Best Supporting Actor
*Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Jesus and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Best Supporting Actress
*Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
*Chloë Zhao, Nomadland
Last edited by Reza on Thu Feb 18, 2021 4:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby Sabin » Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:54 am

My critic buddy just saw Judas and the Black Messiah and said it is absolutely going to factor into the Oscar race. He said it's excellently written and directed. Kaluuya and Stanfield are really co-leads. Stanfield is excellent but less likely to factor in because his character is so weak. The film suffers a little because they don't really have the strongest relationship between them but it is an across the board excellent, gripping piece of entertainment.
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby Big Magilla » Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:01 am

Reza, as far as I know the four leads in One Night in Miami are still being split in Amazon's ads between lead and support - the decision to place them all in support was for the Golden Globes only, although it could be a strategy that plays better for them with SAG and Oscar in the long run given the headway of the five you list plus Delroy Lindo.

A more bizarre Amazon decision was to move Uncle Frank from being a theatrical release to being a "Made-for-TV movie" for Golden Globe and Emmy consideration per ads in Variety and the Hollywood Reporter. It was nothing of the kind, but I suspect that was something that was pushed by Miramax which co-produced the film. Harvey may be gone, but his games are still being played.

Stanley Tucci, though clearly a co-lead in Supernova, has little chance of breaking into the crowded Best Actor category but if he's still listed by the film's producers as support he could well grab a SAG spot which in turn could lead to an Oscar nod there as well.

Also, Tahir Rahim, who has the title role in The Mauritanian, really is the film's lead. I don't see how they can shoehorn into support.

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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby Reza » Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:05 am

A few changes / revisions since my last post

Best Picture
Da 5 Bloods
The Father
Mank
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
The Mauritanian
Minari
One Night in Miami
Nomadland
Soul
The Trial of the Chicago 7

This list of 10 remains as before. In case The Mauritanian fizzles then Judas and the Black Messiah or First Cow get in.

Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yuen, Minari

Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

The 6th slot: Michelle Pfeiffer, Sidney Flanigan or Andra Day. Loren is the vulnerable one on my list but I think she will get in.

Best Supporting Actor
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

All the guys in Miami are now apparently being pushed in the supporting category so have moved Ben-Adair down here. Tucci is now being pushed as a lead where I doubt he will make the list allowing Yuen, who I initially had in the 6th spot, to make my list.

Not sure if Judas comes out within the new alloted period but if it does then Daniel Kaluuya will get a slot in this category in place of Tahar Rahim. I put in Rahim on the strength of his film's trailer and the sympathetic part he plays. If the film fizzles and Judas is not released in time then Strathairn will get a nod not because he did anything exceptional in Nomadland (he was good though) but because he may get swept along with the many nods the film is bound to get.

Best Supporting Actress
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Foster is in on the strength of her film's trailer. If the film fizzles then Candice Bergen gets in.

Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Florian Zeller, The Father
Chloë Zhao, Nomadland

I think these 5 are locked.

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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby Big Magilla » Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:41 am

Mister Tee wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:As for seeing everything before the awards, that's a luxury most people have never had. Even livingi n New York or L.A. until recently was no guarantee of access to everything as many awards contenders were released in one or the other cities rather than in both.


Interesting to be told that trying to see all the nominees before the Oscars -- something I've been doing for roughly 50 years, and that, as far as I can tell, has been attempted by most others around this site, as well -- makes me some sort of privileged person, and that it's just tough titty I can't do it this year. I can't imagine caring about who wins or loses if I haven't seen the films in question.


Nothing wrong with "trying to see" all the nominees before the Oscars. We all try and largely succeed, but seeing them all before the precursors is virtually impossible and that's the time frame we're in now.

I'm not really excited about any of the releases I've seen so far this year winning Best Picture, but that's true of a lot of years. Releasing all the films that were pushed back to 2021 would not necessarily make it any better. Denying filmmakers a chance at an Oscar this year would be tantamount to Ellen Burstyn's failed suggestion that AMPAS cancel Best Actress nominations in the 1975 Oscars. Ironically, she's not only a major contender this year, but on the verge of making history as the oldest acting nominee thus far.

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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby anonymous1980 » Mon Dec 14, 2020 4:46 am

Mister Tee wrote:I know I've advanced to Old Man Yells at Cloud status on this issue, but I truly don't see how everyone can walk around pretending this is close enough to normal not to matter. It's not remotely normal.


Yeah, it's definitely NOT a normal year, I agree.

But I disagree in canceling next year's Oscars and just cramming 2020 and 2021 into the 2022 ceremony. The Oscars are all about reflecting and celebrating the film year that was. 2020 film year definitely happened and this is a good opportunity for smaller films to be celebrated and highlighted. Sure, it will be mostly streaming premieres this year and most people will have seen most of the contenders on streaming sites but so what? You gotta work with what you have...and I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. It's different for sure.

Since it's happening in April, with vaccines upon the horizon and under a more competent administration, I think it would a good idea for the Oscars to seize the opportunity to encourage people to go back to movie theaters once it's safe.

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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby Mister Tee » Mon Dec 14, 2020 12:16 am

Big Magilla wrote:As for seeing everything before the awards, that's a luxury most people have never had. Even living n New York or L.A. until recently was no guarantee of access to everything as many awards contenders were released in one or the other cities rather than in both.


Interesting to be told that trying to see all the nominees before the Oscars -- something I've been doing for roughly 50 years, and that, as far as I can tell, has been attempted by most others around this site, as well -- makes me some sort of privileged person, and that it's just tough titty I can't do it this year. I can't imagine caring about who wins or loses if I haven't seen the films in question.

Big Magilla wrote:rewarding the wealth of product that has been put out there in various forms is not something we have to give up -


I'm sorry, "the wealth of product" makes me laugh. Look at what just triumphed in Boston today (and what many are predicting for the rest of the critics' awards) -- I have to assume Nomadland is a lot better than The Rider, but even dws, who was a far greater fan of The Rider than I, suggests it would go home empty-handed in a standard year. And second place to a Kelly Reichardt film? -- a director who makes films for people who don't mind being bored. A screenplay award to I'm Thinking of Ending Things, a Charlie Kaufman film that makes Synecdoche New York seem accessible. And a best actress prize to Sidney Flanigan for listless, barely verbal work -- the kind of performance sometimes praised by critics but never (in my experience) by actors.

Does anyone really think these films would be central to an Oscar race in a year with a full release schedule? (I'm bypassing Minari, because I have no idea how good or accessible it will turn out to be -- though its foreign quality makes me skeptical it'd be a truly big player.) Yes, there are a few films in the mix -- The Father, Sound of Metal, Ma Rainey -- that could yield acting nominations in any year, but even they're being inflated into major best picture players because there's so little on display. People are talking about everything from Netflix -- Mank, Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods in addition to Ma Rainey -- making the best picture slate, despite no one I know loving any of them. If my friends are any indication, The Queen's Gambit would slay them all. If an HBO MAX movie can be nominated, why not that? (Don't take this question as anything but rhetorical. I know the reasons why. Though I do note that running over multiple nights didn't disqualify OJ: Made in America.)

And, Reza, I think you're very wrong about the release schedule that might have been. Even of those you noted, we can't dismiss Dune out of hand -- not when its director got picture/director nods for Arrival, and multiple top nods of Blade Runner 2049. And I don't think you can say what films might have been added as the year went on. Everything shut down in mid-March -- numerous films still in production, had they been completed as planned, might have impressed their studios and been elevated to Oscar hopefuls by Fall. And the majors by and large passed on the festivals this year, so we don't know what sleepers might have emerged to fill out the slate. Put it this way: I doubt Nomadland would have been the unquestioned top dog if there'd been a normal festival season.

I know I've advanced to Old Man Yells at Cloud status on this issue, but I truly don't see how everyone can walk around pretending this is close enough to normal not to matter. It's not remotely normal.

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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby Reza » Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:22 pm

Big Magilla wrote:As for seeing everything before the awards, that's a luxury most people have never had. Even living n New York or L.A. until recently was no guarantee of access to everything as many awards contenders were released in one or the other cities rather than in both.


It's only the last 2 or 3 years that I've had the luxury of watching films soon after they came out and that too not every film. Before that it would be months, and for some films a number of years, before I could see them. You guys in the West have had it so easy.

A lot of the films are now uploaded on free sites (illegally?) soon after release in pristine prints in HD.

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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby Sabin » Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:40 pm

Okay, NYFCC is voting soon. It's time.

BEST PICTURE
The Father
Da 5 Bloods
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Florian Zeller, The Father

BEST ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Steven Yeun, Minari

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Stanley Tucci, Supernova

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Olivia Colman, The Father
Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
Soul
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
Nomadland
One Night in Miami

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
News of the World
One Night in Miami
Soul
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Hear My Voice” / The Trial of the Chicago 7
“Rocket to the Moon” / Over the Moon
“Speak Now” / One Night in Miami
“Turntables” / All In: The Fight for Democracy
“Wear Your Crown” / The Prom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
I’m Thinking of Ending Things (no guts, no glory)
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
Tenet

BEST FILM EDITING
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Emma
Ma Rainey’s  Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
The Personal History of David Copperfield

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
The Prom

BEST MAKEUP
Birds of Prey
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mulan
The Prom
The United States vs. Billie Holiday

BEST SOUND
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Sound of Metal
Tenet

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Invisible Man
The Midnight Sky 
Mulan
Tenet
Wonder Woman 1984
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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:26 am

I certainly can't afford everything, but with my DVD and Blu-ray expenditures greatly reduced, I can afford a few streaming services.

I've had Prime Video for several years, initially to pay shipping costs on Amazon purchases. I've had Netflix for a year now and recently I added Hulu because it's only $5 per month with advertising on non-Hulu originals which are initially advertising free. I also have Peacock because it's free with Xfinity but haven't found anything on it that I either haven't seen or don't wish to see.

IMDb. and of course, YouTube, allow access to streaming without charge, which is helpful for seeking out old films.

Pay Per View is something I rarely take advantage of, but it's essentially the cost of two movie theatre tickets so that isn't bad if used judiciously

HBO Max and Disney are two streaming services I see no value in, at least at present anyway.

"Because we always have" is a stupid reason to do anything. Because it's a tradition that we want to keep going if we can is the way I would put it. There are lots of things we've had to give up with this pandemic. Going out to see a movie and making a movie under these terrible conditions are certainly things that have had to be put on hold for obvious reasons but rewarding the wealth of product that has been put out there in various forms is not something we have to give up - we just have to do it in a different way. Whether that's totally virtual or in some from of people safely gathered and others in contact remotely we still don't know.

As for seeing everything before the awards, that's a luxury most people have never had. Even living n New York or L.A. until recently was no guarantee of access to everything as many awards contenders were released in one or the other cities rather than in both.

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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby Reza » Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:46 am

Mister Tee wrote:Which leads me again to ask, why are we going ahead with all this?, and I haven't heard anyone come up with an answer beyond "because we always have".


It is certainly not a diluted year by any means. Apart from West Side Story, Dune the Bond film and a few others no major 2020 contender has been postponed to 2021. And of these only the Spielberg could have received major nods. Dune and the Bond film are lower ranked contenders if at all. The rest of the important films of 2020 are all getting a release one way or another.

I can understand the frustration of not being able to go to the cinema or not being able to afford various tv channels. Not being able to concentrate on a film at home appears to be psychological. I've been through that phase and the more you watch on tv your brain eventually adjusts to it. You can still find many of the films online for free. You just need to make an effort and accept that in many parts of the world this is how to go about watching films from now onwards until the pandemic ends.

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Re: My first Oscar predictions!

Postby Mister Tee » Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:25 am

Boston Film Critics are apparently voting their awards tomorrow (later today, actually), and it's revealing of just how distant I feel from the whole movie award thing this year that I only found out about this yesterday.

I'm sure people are tired of hearing how I can't work it up to care this year, and it seems everyone's going blithely ahead without me. But I now find a secondary problem: I don't really see how I'm going to see the majority of what movies there are this year. Stipulate that, certainly in my part of the world, movie theatres aren't opening any time between now and the projected April Oscar date. To participate in the season at anything like my normal rate, I will apparently need access to a multitude of streaming services. I have a password to Netflix, so I've seen Da Five Bloods/Trial of the Chicago 7/Mank/Hillbilly Elegy (god help us on the last). But I also evidently need: HBO MAX -- which I can't get, because I have a Roku TV, and the two behemoths can't come to agreement; Amazon Prime, which costs a hundred bucks a year (and, I find to my chagrin, you can't pay for with Amazon gift cards); the Disney channel, which is another monthly outlay...and, after that, I guess pay-per-view if they're available, at (in my area, anyway), exorbitant prices: Ammonite, which no one even thinks will be a contender, is $19.99 per this weekend. Maybe the rest of you have more disposable income than I, but I wonder if I'll be watching the Oscars from afar this year, without my usual informed knowledge. Which, after close to 60 years of devotion to seeing everything, feels like a real kick in the teeth.

That's on top of my distaste for watching everything at home -- I did everything I could to focus in on Mank (shut down my computer, made sure no one was going to interrupt me, turned off the lights), but still kept wishing I could give it the undivided focus that would come naturally in a movie theatre. And, though nobody seems to want to talk about it, the sheer dilution of competition coming from this stunted year still bothers me. Granted I've only seen the Netflix stuff, but there's not one film I'd make a best picture sure-shot in a normal year, and Lindo and Seyfried are the only performances I've seen that feel like slam-dunk nominees (though Oldman and one of the supporting players in Chicago 7 would be acceptable). All of this for a show that, the way I'm hearing Dr. Fauci talk about vaccine roll-out, will probably be done remotely, at a time when it'll still be unsafe for unmasked friends to gather for our standard party.

Which leads me again to ask, why are we going ahead with all this?, and I haven't heard anyone come up with an answer beyond "because we always have".


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