I'm changing the channel after getting to see Brad Pitt win and deliver his latest stand-up set, which should be early in the broadcast.
Unless I receive a text telling me otherwise, I'll go to bed very, very sad that Greta Gerwig lost. That's my prediction.
Categories One-by-One: Adapted Screenplay
Re: Categories One-by-One: Adapted Screenplay
There is a big push for Greta Gerwig to win an Oscar because otherwise no woman will have won a writing Oscar during the 2010's (also bc she's awesome). Working against her: writing awards tend to go to movies with a high-concept element to them: Get Out over Three Billboards or Lady Bird, Birdman over The Grand Budapest Hotel, Her over American Hustle. Little Women is the sixth adaptation of Louisa May Alcott's novel not counting all the television series. It is a proudly literary adaptation. The last time a writer won for adapting a "CLASSIC" (ie British) novel was Emma Thompson for Sense and Sensibility (my first Oscars!).
Taika Watiki certainly has a high-concept element to his film (imaginary Hitler best friend). But working against him is this... I have a feeling that the Academy body might have a more difficult time warming to Jojo Rabbit than the WGA body. I'll be blunt: I don't know how much older Jewish voters like it. The impression that I got from some of the Hollywood Reporter pieces suggest several just wish it would go away.
The question is do they like Little Women more or something like The Irishman.
Right now, I think Jojo Rabbit wins.
Taika Watiki certainly has a high-concept element to his film (imaginary Hitler best friend). But working against him is this... I have a feeling that the Academy body might have a more difficult time warming to Jojo Rabbit than the WGA body. I'll be blunt: I don't know how much older Jewish voters like it. The impression that I got from some of the Hollywood Reporter pieces suggest several just wish it would go away.
The question is do they like Little Women more or something like The Irishman.
Right now, I think Jojo Rabbit wins.
"How's the despair?"
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anonymous1980
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Categories One-by-One: Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
This is another contentious category that would produce some suspense before the envelope is opened. We can safely say The Two Popes will not be the film in that envelope. It's lucky to be here. Joker seems to be all about Joaquin Phoenix's performance and very little else. No one is clamoring for Todd Philips to win an Oscar. So that's also out. The Irishman is a very well-respected nominee and Steven Zaillian is a very well-respected writer. But even though it gets nominations, it almost never wins anything so I think it's running a distant third in this race.
BAFTA, in a few hours, may determine this (or it may not) but the race is clearly between Jojo Rabbit and Little Women. The latter won the USC Scripter and the former just won the WGA. Both films have passionate fans and both writers are likable personalities people would love to see win an Oscar. So it's gonna be a nail biter until the envelope is opened. For now, I'm thinking Greta Gerwig by a hair but I could change my mind.
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
This is another contentious category that would produce some suspense before the envelope is opened. We can safely say The Two Popes will not be the film in that envelope. It's lucky to be here. Joker seems to be all about Joaquin Phoenix's performance and very little else. No one is clamoring for Todd Philips to win an Oscar. So that's also out. The Irishman is a very well-respected nominee and Steven Zaillian is a very well-respected writer. But even though it gets nominations, it almost never wins anything so I think it's running a distant third in this race.
BAFTA, in a few hours, may determine this (or it may not) but the race is clearly between Jojo Rabbit and Little Women. The latter won the USC Scripter and the former just won the WGA. Both films have passionate fans and both writers are likable personalities people would love to see win an Oscar. So it's gonna be a nail biter until the envelope is opened. For now, I'm thinking Greta Gerwig by a hair but I could change my mind.