Final Predictions

[mlrg]

Picture
1917
Jojo Rabbit
The Irishman
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Director:
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Jong-ho for Parasite

Actor:
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo di Caprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix for Joker

Actress:
Akwafina, The Farewell
Scarlet Johanson, Marriage Story
Saorise Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zelwegger, Judy

Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhoud
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Supporting Actress:
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbitt
Jennifer Lopez , Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Predicted 17 out of 20 if the nominated performances. Back on November 11th I posted my usual pre precursors prediction. Got 15 ou of 20. Not bad

[Okri]

Too lazy to do predictions and I tend to go with hopes way too often anyway, so here are some hopes.

a) As little Joker as possible. I really don't want to have to see it.

b) Parasite in Production Design and Editing. I've seen it three times and each time I marvel anew at these two facets.

c) Knives Out for costume design (sweater)

d) Atlantics in best international film

e) Pain and Glory getting above the title nominations. Especially Banderas.

f) Tarantino missing out on best director for Greta Gerwig. His stans will go NUTS.

AMPAS to Okri: We'll give you two of these.

[Sonic Youth]

This seems a pretty rich category this year, and I could imagine any of the alts making the cut… My wife’s cousin tells me Knives Out was shot at the family home of a friend of hers. She promises to share details when she gets them.

This would be interesting to me, because I’ve been in that house several times.

(No predictions from me. I’ve only seen three movies this year.)

[mlrg]

Picture
1917
Jojo Rabbit
The Irishman
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Director:
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Jong-ho for Parasite

Actor:
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo di Caprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix for Joker

Actress:
Akwafina, The Farewell
Scarlet Johanson, Marriage Story
Saorise Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zelwegger, Judy

Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhoud
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Supporting Actress:
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbitt
Jennifer Lopez , Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

[Banana Ohnana]

Picture
1917 (10 nominations: Picture, Director, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound, Sound Editing, Score, Makeup, Visual Effects)
The Irishman (10 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Editing, Visual Effects)
Jojo Rabbit (4 nominations: Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Costumes)
Little Women (8 nominations: Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, Score, Makeup)
Marriage Story (5 nominations: Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (8 nominations: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing)
Pain and Glory (5 nominations: Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay, FLF)
Parasite (7 nominations Picture, Director, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Song, FLF)


Director:
San Mendes for 1917
Martin Scorsese for The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Pedro Almodovar for Pain and Glory
Bong Jong-ho for Parasite

Score:
1917
The Farewell
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women

Cinematography:
1917
The Irishman
Lighthouse
Once Upon a Time
Parasite

Sound:
1917
Ford V. Ferrari
Joker
The Lighthouse
Star Wars

Sound Editing:
1917
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v. Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywoos
Rocketman

Costumes:
Dolemite Is My Name
Harriet
JoJo Rabbit
Judy
Little Women

Production Design:
1917
Irishman
The Lighthouse
Little Women
Once Upon a Time

Editing:
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Adapted Screenplay:
Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Luce
The Two Popes

Original Screenplay:
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Pain and Glory
Parasite

Actor:
Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory
Robert DeNiro for Irishman
Adam Driver for Marriage Story
Eddie Murphy for Dolemite Is my Name
Joaquin Phoenix for Joker

Actress:
Scarlet Johanson for Marriage Story
Lupita Nyongo for Us
Saroise Ronan for Little Women
Charlize Theron for Bombshell
Renee Zelwegger for Judy

Supporting Actor:
Willem DeFoe for The Lighthouse
Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day
Al Pacino for The Irishman
Joe Pesci for The Irishman
Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time

Supporting Actress:
Annette Bening for The Report
Laura Dern for Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers
Florence Pugh for Little Women
xZhao Suzhen for The Farewell

Visual Effects:
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Terminator: Dark Fate

Makeup and Hair

1917
Bombshell
Judy
Little Women
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Original Song;

Frozen 2
Parasite
Rocketman
Toy Story 4
Wild Rose

Foreign Language Film:
Czech Republic
France
North Macedonia
South Korea
Spain

Animated Feature
Toy Story 4
Frozen 2
Missing Link
I Lost My Body
Abominable

Documentary Feature
Honeyland
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
One Child Nation

Documentary Short
After Maria
Fire in Paradise
Ghosts of Sugar Land
In the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)

Animated Short
He Can’t Live without Cosmos
Hors Piste
Kitbull
Memorable
Mind My Mind


Live Action Short:
The Neighbors’ Window
Refugee
Saria
A Sister
Sometimes, I Think about Dying

[Okri]

Too lazy to do predictions and I tend to go with hopes way too often anyway, so here are some hopes.

a) As little Joker as possible. I really don't want to have to see it.

b) Parasite in Production Design and Editing. I've seen it three times and each time I marvel anew at these two facets.

c) Knives Out for costume design (sweater)

d) Atlantics in best international film

e) Pain and Glory getting above the title nominations. Especially Banderas.

f) Tarantino missing out on best director for Greta Gerwig. His stans will go NUTS.

[anonymous1980]

My final predictions:

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR

Ford v. Ferrari (20th Century Fox) Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping and James Mangold, producers.

The Irishman (Netflix) Martin Scorsese, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Robert De Niro and Jane Rosenthal, producers

Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight) Carthew Neal and Taika Waititi, producers.

Joker (Warner Bros.) Todd Phillips, Bradley Cooper, and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, producers.

Little Women (Columbia Pictures) Amy Pascal, producer.

Marriage Story (Netflix) David Heyman and Noah Baumbach, producers.

1917 (Universal/Dreamworks) Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne‐Ann Tenggren and Callum McDougall, producers

Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (Columbia Pictures) David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh and Quentin Tarantino, producers

Parasite (Neon) Bong Joon-ho and Kwak Sin-ae, producers.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Song Kang-ho, Parasite

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Rian Johnson, Knives Out
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Steven Zaillian, The Irishman (based on the book I Heard You Paint Houses by Charles Brandt)
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (based on the novel Caging Skies by Christine Leunens)
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker (based on the DC comics)
Greta Gerwig, Little Women (based on the novel by Louisa Mae Alcott)
Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes (based on his play)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frozen II (Disney) Jennifer Lee, Chris Buck and Peter Del Vecho.
I Lost My Body (Xilam Animation) Jeremy Clapin and Marc du Pontavice
Klaus (Aniventure/Netflix) Sergio Pablos
Missing Link (Laika) Chris Butler, Ariane Sutner and Travis Knight
Toy Story 4 (PIXAR) Josh Cooley, Jonas Rivera and Mark Nielsen

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Beanpole, Russia
Les Miserables, France
Pain & Glory, Spain
Parasite, South Korea
Those Who Remained, Hungary

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory (Higher Ground/Netflix) Steve Bognar and Julie Reichert
Apollo 11 (CNN Films) Todd Douglas Miller
For Sama (PBS Films) Waad Al-Khateab and Edward Watts
Honeyland (Dogwoof) Tamara Kotevska, Ljubomir Stefanov and Atanas Georgiev
One Child Nation (Amazon) Nanfu Wang and Jialing Zhang

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman
Lawrence Sher, Joker
Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse
Roger A. Deakins, 1917
Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland, Ford v. Ferrari
Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman
Jeff Groth, Joker
Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Jinmo Wang, Parasite

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
Bob Shaw (production design) & Regina Graves (set decoration), The Irishman
Ra Vincent (production design) & Nora Sopkova (set decoration), Jojo Rabbit
Jess Gonchor (production design) & Claire Kaufman (set decoration), Little Women
Barbara Ling (production design) & Nancy Haigh (set decoration), Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Ha-jun Lee (production design), Parasite

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth Carter, Dolemite is My Name
Sandy Powell and Christopher Petersen, The Irishman
Jacqueline Durran, Little Women
Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Julian Day, Rocketman

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, Ford v. Ferrari
Michael Giacchino, Jojo Rabbit
Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker
Alexandre Desplat, Little Women
Thomas Newman, 1917

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"Glasgow (No Place Like Home)", Wild Rose; Mary Steenburgen, Caitlin Smith and Kate York (music & lyrics)
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again", Rocketman; Elton John (music) & Bernie Taupin (lyrics)
"I'm Standing With You", Breakthrough; Diane Warren (music & lyrics)
"Into the Unknown", Frozen II; Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez (music & lyrics)
"Spirit", The Lion King; Ilya Salmanzadeh, Timothy Lee McKenzie and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter (music & lyrics)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and Doc Kane, Avengers: Endgame
Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven Morrow, Ford v. Ferrari
Tom Fleischman and Tod A. Maitland, The Irishman
Scott Millan, Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson, 1917
Andy Nelson, Stuart Wilson and Ben Burtt, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Daniel Laurie and Shannon Mills, Avengers: Endgame
Donald Sylvester and David Giammarco, Ford v. Ferrari
Philip Stockton, The Irishman
Oliver Tarney and Michael Fentum, 1917
David Acord and Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Daniel Sudick, Avengers: Endgame
Pablo Helman, Mike F. Hedayati, Ed Bruce and Jiwoong Kim, The Irishman
Robert Legato, James Rothwell, Stephen Enticott and Andrew R. Jones, The Lion King
Guillaume Rocheron, Dominic Tuohy, Greg Butler and Pier Lefebvre, 1917
Roger Guyett, Marc Varisco, Paul Kavanagh and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Kazuhiro Tsuji, Vivian Baker and Anne Morgan, Bombshell
Nicki Ledermann and Michael Marino, Joker
Jeremy Woodhead and Joseph Koniak, Judy
Tristan Versluis and Naomi Donne, 1917
Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and Lizzie Georgiou, Rocketman

[Mister Tee]

Best Picture
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
alt.: Knives Out, Pain and Glory

We don’t have conclusive evidence as to what sort of year yields 8 nominees and what 9 (the only totals we’ve seen since this regime began), but, so far, weaker years (like 2014/15, and last year) have brought 8’s. Since I view this year as a strong one, I’m going with 9 -- though my final choice (Ford v. Ferrari) required something of a stretch.

Best Actor
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
alt.: Christian Bale (Ford v. Ferrari), Robert DeNiro (The Irishman), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)

Like everyone, I view Driver/Phoenix as set, the rest fungible. The only hope for DeNiro is the Eastwood/Million Dollar Baby precedent – missing all prelims, but getting in on the strength of a best picture contender. If it turns out my two favorites (Banderas and DeNiro) both miss, it’ll back up a theory of mine: that often the worst choices are made from the strongest fields.

Best Actress
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Lupita Nyong’o (Us)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renee Zellweger (Judy)
alt.: Awkwafina (The Farewell), Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)

Explained this in okri’s thread.

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)
alt.: John Lithgow (Bombshell), Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy), Alan Alda (Marriage Story), Timothee Chalamet (Little Women), Song Kong ho (Parasite)

As I said in the other thread: none of these many alternates would floor me, but I see no reason to bet against the consensus slate.

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
alt.: Shuzhen Zhao (The Farewell)

The influx of foreign-language voters is the only thing that makes me hold a flicker of hope for Nai Nai. But the near-impossibility of such performers getting supporting nods makes me pick Johansson instead.

Best Director
Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory)
Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)
alt.: Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit), Josh & Ben Safdie (Uncut Gems), Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)

The presumption is that the front four (Bong, Mendes, Scorsese, Tarantino) are set – or, even should one shockingly miss (a la McDonagh two years back), it’s hard to figure which, so go with the chalk. The game becomes, pinpoint the fifth nominee. Waititi feels like the DGA choice that gets dropped. Despite BAFTA, I don’t fully believe in Joker. Gerwig and Baumbach are the not-quite-top-five-for-picture-but-better-regarded-by-directors candidates, and either could slip in (I wonder if Baumbach is at this point being underrated). But, in the end, I’m going with the veteran/previously nominated Almodovar, whose summing-up film should have special resonance for directors.

Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
The Two Popes
alt.: Joker

Again, BAFTA be damned, I’m thinking Joker is more Black Panther/Guardians of the Galaxy than Logan – a comic book effort that makes WGA but fails at AMPAS.

Best Original Screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Pain and Glory
Parasite
alt.: The Farewell, Uncut Gems

The writers are the branch most likely to surprise with titles not widely rewarded. I’m handicapped by the fact Uncut Gems is the one potential contender I’ve yet to see; I have friends who hate it (one said he felt like it gave him a heart attack), and others who think it’s the coolest. That last factor could get it cited by this most open-minded branch. But, in the end, I’m backing my Almodovar directing pick and saying the writers will go for him, as well.

Best Cinematography
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
The Lighthouse
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
alt.: Joker, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

A general feeling that 1) one of The Lighthouse and Portrait of a Lady on Fire will be art-film-that-bumps-an-ASC-nominee; 2) of the two, The Lighthouse’ sumptuous black-and-white will have the edge (esp. with Portrait not being widely seen); and 3) very uncertain which ASC candidate to bump – secretly fear it'll be The Irishman, but betting on hope that it’s Joker instead.

Best Costume Design
Aladdin
Dolemite is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
alt.: The Irishman, Downton Abbey

A lot of people seem to have The Irishman here, on Sandy Powell pedigree maybe? It doesn’t seem flashy enough, to me.

Best Production Design
The Irishman
Knives Out
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
alt.: Little Women, Jojo Rabbit, Aladdin

This seems a pretty rich category this year, and I could imagine any of the alts making the cut… My wife’s cousin tells me Knives Out was shot at the family home of a friend of hers. She promises to share details when she gets them.

Best Sound Mixing
Ford v. Ferrari
Joker
1917
Rocketman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Alt.: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, The Irishman

The usual mix of war/car/space/comic books from the sound department, with Rocketman to remind us this is not exactly the same as sound editing.

Best Film Editing
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
alt.: Knives Out, Jojo Rabbit

It’s a long-standing weird tradition that some of the year’s longest movies get editing nominations. (By the way, for all those making tiresome “The Irishman is so long” jokes: Lawrence of Arabia is 19 minutes longer.)

Best Score
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
alt.: Pain and Glory, Ford v. Ferrari, Us

This group is so universally predicted, I pretty much expect something to be off about it.

Best Visual Effects
Alita: Battle Angel
Avengers: Endgame
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
alt.: Captain Marvel, The Irishman

Best Sound Editing
Ford v. Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
alt.: Avengers: Endgame, Toy Story 4

Best Make-up
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Rocketman
alt.: Little Women, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Best Song
Glasgow (Wild Rose)
I’m Gonna Love Me Again (Rocketman)
I’m Standing With You (Breakthrough)
Spirit (The Lion King)
Stand Up (Harriet)
alt.: Speechless (Aladdin), Into the Unknown (Frozen 2), I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away (Toy Story 4)

Best Foreign Language Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Les Misérables (France)
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Those Who Remained (Hungary)
The Painted Bird (Czech Republic), Atlantics (Senegal)

Best Animated Feature
Frozen 2
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
alt.: Klaus

Best Documentary Feature
American Factory
Apollo 11
The Cave
For Sama
Honeyland
Alt.: The Biggest Little Farm, The Great Hack

[criddic3]

Best Picture

The Irishman
JoJo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Animated Feature

Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
The Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Best Director

Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Best Actress

Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Scarlett Johannson, Jojo Rabbit
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell

Original Screenplay

The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

Original Song

Aladdin – “Speechless”
Frozen II – “Into the Unknown”
Harriet – “Stand Up”
Rocketman – “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
Wild Rose – “Glasgow (No Place Like Home)”

Original Score

Ford v Ferrari
JoJo Rabbit
Joker
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Film Editing

Ford v. Ferrari
Joker
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Cinematography

Ford v Ferrari
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Production Design

Jojo Rabbit
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

Costume Design

Aladdin
Dolemite is My Name
Little Women
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Rocketman

Makeup & Hairstyling

Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Rocketman

Sound Mixing

Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Rocketman

Sound Editing

Ford v Ferrari
Midway
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Visual Effects

Alita: Battle Angel
Avengers: End Game
The Irishman
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

International Film

France – Les Misérables
Russia – Beanpole
Senegal – Atlantics
South Korea – Parasite
Spain – Pain and Glory

Documentary Feature

American Factory
Apollo 11
For Sama
Honeyland
One Child Nation

Documentary Short Subject

Fire in Paradise
Ghosts of Sugar Land
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman

Animated Short Film

He Can’t Live Without Cosmos
Kitbull
The Physics of Sorrow
Sister
Uncle Thomas: Counting for the Days

Live Action Short Film

Brotherhood
The Christmas Gift
The Neighbors’ Widow
Refugee
Sometimes, I Think about Dying

[rolotomasi99]

My predictions match most everyone else's though I throw in the occasional alternate option since we know sometimes we get a NEVER LOOK AWAY shocker.

BEST PICTURE

The Irishman

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

1917

Parasite

Jojo Rabbit

Marriage Story

Little Women

Ford v Ferrari

Joker

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

DIRECTING

The Irishman

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

1917

Marriage Story

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Marriage Story

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

Knives Out

Pain And Glory

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Irishman

Little Women

Jojo Rabbit

The Two Popes

Joker

LEAD ACTRESS

Renee Zellweger - Judy

Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story

Charlize Theron - Bombshell

Saorise Ronan - Little Women

Cynthia Erivo - Harriet

LEAD ACTOR

Joaquin Phoenix - Joker

Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

Adam Driver - Marriage Story

Antonio Banderas - Pain And Glory

Jonathan Pryce- The Two Popes

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern - Marriage Story

Margot Robbie - Bombshell

Nicole Kidman - Bombshell

Florence Pugh - Little Women

Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brad Pitt - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Al Pacino - The Irishman

Joe Pesci - The Irishman

Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes

FILM EDITING

The Irishman

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Ford v. Ferrari

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1917

The Irishman

Joker

Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

Little Women

ART DIRECTION

Little Women

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Irishman

1917

Jojo Rabbit

COSTUME DESIGN

Little Women

Judy

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Irishman

Portrait Of A Lady On Fire

ORIGINAL SCORE

Little Women

1917

Joker

The Rise Of Skywalker

Jojo Rabbit

SOUND MIXING

The Rise Of Skywalker

1917

Ford v. Ferrari

Rocketman

The Irishman

SOUND EDITING

The Rise Of Skywalker

1917

Ford v. Ferrari

The Lion King

Avengers: Endgame

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Rise Of Skywalker

Avengers: Endgame

The Lion King

1917

Captain Marvel

MAKEUP

Bombshell

Joker

1917

[Reza]

Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
JoJo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
The Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Best Director
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Best Actor
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Best Actress
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Song Kang-ho, Parasite
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell

Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

Original Song
Aladdin – “Speechless”
Frozen II – “Into the Unknown”
Harriet – “Stand Up”
Rocketman – “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
Wild Rose – “Glasgow (No Place Like Home)”

Original Score
Ford v Ferrari
JoJo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
1917

Film Editing
Ford v. Ferrari
Joker
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Cinematography
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
The Lighthouse
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Production Design
Joker
Little Women
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

Costume Design
Dolemite is My Name
The Irishman
Little Women
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Rocketman

Makeup & Hairstyling
Bombshell
Judy
Little Women
Once Upon a Time…in America
Rocketman

Sound Mixing
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Rocketman

Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Visual Effects
Avengers: End Game
The Irishman
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Terminator: Dark Fate

International Film
France – Les Misérables
Poland – Corpus Christi
Senegal – Atlantics
South Korea – Parasite
Spain – Pain and Glory

Documentary Feature
Advocate
American Factory
Apollo 11
For Sama
One Child Nation

Documentary Short Subject
After Maria
Fire in Paradise
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Stay Close

Animated Short Film
He Can’t Live Without Cosmos
Memorable
The Physics of Sorrow
Sister
Uncle Thomas: Counting the Days

Live Action Short Film
Brotherhood
The Christmas Gift
Miller & Son
The Neighbors’ Widow
Sometimes, I Think about Dying

[Big Magilla]

FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS

Since we’re likely to see 8 Best Picture nominees instead of the allowable 10, I’d say Ford v Ferrari and The Two Popes are the most vulnerable among my predictions with the other 8 all good to go. I fully expect to see 18 of the 20 BAFTA acting nominations repeated by AMPAS with Cynthia Erivo and Jennifer Lopez nominated instead of Jessie Buckley and Margot Robbie’s second designation. Other than that, I expect to see 4 out of 5 of predictions in most categories come to fruition.

Best Picture in Order of Likelihood

1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Little Women
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Ford v Ferrari
The Two Popes

This has been a year in which there has been such general consensus on what the year’s best films were that it’s hard to imagine anything else breaking into this group with Knives Out, Bombshell and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood having outside chances.

Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
The Missing Link
Toy Story 4

The Toy Story, Frozen and How to Train Your Dragon sequels are almost certain to be nominated with the other two slots up for grabs.

Directing
The Irishman – Martin Scorsese
Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach
1917 – Sam Mendes
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood - Quentin Tarantino
Parasite – Bong Joon-ho

Scorsese, Tarantino, Mendes and Bong are virtually certain with Baumbach vying with Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Todd Phillips (Joker) and Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit) for the fifth slot.

Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Taron Egerton - Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

This is the toughest category to nail down this year with Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Robert De Niro (The Irishman), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems) and Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) all having outside chances, but I find it awfully difficult not see nods coming for DiCaprio, Driver, Phoenix and first-time nominees Egerton and Pryce.

Actress
Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Renée Zellweger - Judy

Zellweger and Johannson are probably the only certainties, but Ronan and Theron seem extremely likely with Erivo the strongest of the possibilities for the fifth slot.

Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
Al Pacino – The Irishman
Joe Pesci – The Irishman
Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

This is the most solid of all the acting categories with Pitt, Hopkins, Hanks, Pesci and Pacino all likely to be nominated.

Supporting Actress
Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
Florence Pugh – Little Women
Margot Robbie - Bombshell

This is the most wide-open of the acting categories with Dern the only one who is seemingly invincible. Johansson, Lopez, Pugh and Robbie could easily be upset by former winners Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) and Octavia Spencer (Luce) and/or former nominees Annette Bening (The Report) and Julie Walters (Wild Rose).

Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

Original Song
Aladdin – “Speechless”
Frozen II – “Into the Unknown”
Harriet – “Stand Up”
Rocketman – “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
Wild Rose – “Glasgow (No Place Like Home)”

Original Score
Ford v Ferrari
Frozen II
Joker
Little Women
1917

Film Editing
Ford v. Ferrari
Joker
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Cinematography
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Little Women
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Production Design
Joker
Little Women
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Parasite

Costume Design
The Irishman
Judy
Little Women
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Rocketman

Makeup & Hairstyling
Bombshell
Judy
Little Women
Once Upon a Time…in America
Rocketman

Sound Mixing
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Rocketman

Sound Editing
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood

Visual Effects
Avengers: End Game
The Irishman
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Terminator: Dark Fate

International Film
France – Les Misérables
Poland – Corpus Christi
Senegal – Atlantics
South Korea – Parasite
Spain – Pain and Glory

Documentary Feature
Advocate
American Factory
Apollo 11
For Sama
One Child Nation

Documentary Short Subject
After Maria
Fire in Paradise
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Stay Close

Animated Short Film
He Can’t Live Without Cosmos
Memorable
The Physics of Sorrow
Sister
Uncle Thomas: Counting the Days

Live Action Short Film
Brotherhood
The Christmas Gift
Miller & Son
The Neighbors’ Widow
Sometimes, I Think about Dying

[Precious Doll]

BEST PICTURE

1917
The Irishman
Joker
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

BEST DIRECTOR

Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Philips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

BEST ACTOR

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

BEST ACTRESS

Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Song Kang-ho, Parasite

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jeong Cho Yeo, Parasite
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Pain and Glory
Parasite

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Atlantic, Senegal
Corpus Christi, Poland
Pain & Glory, Spain
Parasite, South Korea
Those Who Remained, Hungary

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Frozen 2
How to Train Your Dragon: Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Toy Story 4

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1917
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

[Sabin]

Fine. Here. (UPDATED)


BEST PICTURE
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

BEST DIRECTOR
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Ervio, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1917
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Glasgow” (Wild Rose)
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again” (Rocketman)
“Into the Unknown” (Frozen 2)
“Speechless” (Aladdin)
“Stand Up” (Harriet)

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Atlantics [Senegal]
Les Miserables [France]
Pain & Glory [Spain]
Parasite [South Korea]
Those Who Remained [Hungary]

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frozen 2
How to Train Your Dragon: Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

BEST FILM EDITING
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1917
The Irishman
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Aladdin
Dolemite is My Name
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman

BEST MAKEUP
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Rocketman

BEST SOUND MIXING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman

BEST SOUND EDITING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1917
Alita: Battle Angel
Avengers: Endgame
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker