Let’s talk about best actress..
Re: Let’s talk about best actress..
Yeah, I omitted her. I like her in the film well enough, but her performance is easily the weakest element. The film would have to be something I think would win best picture for me to think she could get swept in and I think it is getting blanked.
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Mister Tee
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Re: Let’s talk about best actress..
I was about to lead off my response with "Did you omit Awkwafina by accident, or on purpose?"anonymous1980 wrote:I think Awkwafina could get the last spot.
General thought about all these (quite welcome) threads: We've had three years now of vastly-expanded invites to Academy membership, numbers which (depending how many accepted) could change the total number of voters by 15-20%, which seems enough to make significant differences in outcomes. Yet we still presume AMPAS will mostly reflect the other groups (Guilds, BAFTA, Globes) that have made no such attempts at broadening membership. Is this something that is going to change all at once, and startle us? (Note: I'm not talking about what was likely Cheryl Boone Isaac's expectation -- that the changes would ensure gender/ethnic representation; simply that they'd be different.) Or does the fact that, for instance, the visual effects branch has invited a whole load of new voters as well offset the effort -- making AMPAS like Florida electorally: changing demographically the same way Nevada/Arizona/Colorado are, but (thanks to retirees) also being the one place with a growing old white population?
To the category:
Certainly Zellweger is set, and I think Johansson is, as well, despite some murmurs.
I note that Theron has become this year's "what if she's shockingly snubbed?" candidate (our old friend Eric at Slant has made that call), seemingly based on the film's lackluster box-office. But Bombshell will have out-earned Judy by the end of this weekend, so I'm wondering why people have singled it out for that stigma. I think Theron is in.
I figure Ronan/Nyong'o/Awkwafina/Erivo are battling for the final two spots. Maybe worrying about Ronan is simple paranoia based on SAG -- she's scored everywhere else, and the film couldn't be much hotter.
The remaining three are part of the ethnic farrago every Oscar season seems to turn into nowadays. It's almost impossible to discuss their candidacies without a side discussion of how racist/not-racist bodies are for nominating or not nominating them.
Has anyone but me see Harriet? Because it's almost ground-zero Oscar bait -- well-intentioned on a serious subject, but utterly without distinction in writing or directing. Erivo is...fine. I defy anyone to point me to a truly memorable moment in her performance, but she's not bad. She's mostly in the race because plenty of mediocre white performers have got nominations for similar films/performances, and also because the film grossed a surprising $40 million-plus.
Nyong'o is a whole different ballgame. She checks two boxes on current Film Twitter: diversity, and revolt against what's called genre bias. I'd call the latter avoiding junk genres, and I'm on the record with my feelings about Us and Nyong'o's work in it, so there's no sense pretending I'm excited about her being chosen. But 1) better her than Erivo and 2) I'd rather have her nominated than deal with the holy hell that will be unleashed should AMPAS' list match BAFTA's.
Of course -- to return to where I started -- there's Awkwafina, who would also represent diversity (though I'm not sure people mean Asian when they say the word). Problem is, Awkwafina is only serviceable in The Farewell -- possibly the weakest in the entire cast -- so her making the cut wouldn't exactly thrill me, either.
However it goes, if Ronan gets euchred off the list for some combination of these (to me) lesser efforts, I'll be pissed.
My guess is Zellwegger/Johansson/Theron/Nyong'o/Ronan.
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anonymous1980
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Re: Let’s talk about best actress..
I think Awkwafina could get the last spot.
Re: Let’s talk about best actress..
The irony being that Streep is not in the conversation at all, despite being in two films this year.Okri wrote:(stealing Sabin's thunder. Sorry dude)
Being Meryl Streep is probably the only ironclad guarantor of a nomination!
"Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand." -- President Joe Biden, 01/20/2021
Let’s talk about best actress..
(stealing Sabin's thunder. Sorry dude)
If there’s any category where the standard rules don’t apply, it’s here. Being in a film that is broadly a contender helps, of course, but Hollywood doesn’t make those as frequently as they do with films in the other acting categories. Anchoring a box office hit helps, but the often the lowest grossing non-marginalized (foreign, documentary, animated) films are found here. Being Meryl Streep is probably the only ironclad guarantor of a nomination!
In the poll, I said there were two tiers, but maybe there are three? I’d be shocked to see Johansson and Zellweger left off (though I’m fervently rooting against the latter).
Next, we’ve got Theron next. Bombshell doesn’t seem to be performing well at all. It’s not gonna score broadly (it seems to have a very low ceiling). But we once thought she’d be a contender for the win and while I don’t think she is any more, that heat seems to be sticking (though, honestly, there is an uncanny valley effect with this performance that I find fascinating and off-putting in equal measure). There is precedent for a likely supporting nominee dragging in a leading candidate (Albert Nobbs, imo) and I think Robbie’s easily getting in her category.
I’d argue Ronan, N’yongo and Erivo are fighting for the last two slots. Flashing back to a year where Ronan was nominated, Kiera Knightley (in Atonement) gave a similarly garlanded performance. She got recognized by BAFTAs and the Globes, but missed out on SAG. Atonement did reasonably well during the precursors, but it went from buzzy best picture “probable” to also-ran nominee during the course of the race. Atonement arguably did better in the precursors, but not wildly so. But the movie feels like an ensemble piece too and other performers had very vivid moments (Garai, Ronan, McAvoy and Redgrave have moments I can recall in a heartbeat and I haven’t seen the film in a decade). Little Women is arguably similar – Ronan is a lead, but she’s surrounded by a vivid and memorable ensemble. I think that could hurt her here.
Erivo and N’yongo are clear leads surrounded by smaller and/or less memorable ensemble so they stand out more. Harriet has done quite well at the box office (stronger than the top tier candidates) and she’s a vivid stage performer, which I still believe gets people pockets of support in tight races. But she was ignored by BAFTA (which is super weird given that she’s a British performer) and Harriet has definitely struggled internationally. N’yongo is the biggest hit by far, but she’s also in the film that will get no support elsewhere, it’s a genre film and I suspect enough people share Tee/Magilla’s opinion on the film/performance itself.
When in doubt, go with Meryl Streep. Than go with the baitier film/performance and in this case, I’d argue that means Ronan and Erivo before N’yongo. But like I mentioned in the beginning, rules apply less frequently here.
If there’s any category where the standard rules don’t apply, it’s here. Being in a film that is broadly a contender helps, of course, but Hollywood doesn’t make those as frequently as they do with films in the other acting categories. Anchoring a box office hit helps, but the often the lowest grossing non-marginalized (foreign, documentary, animated) films are found here. Being Meryl Streep is probably the only ironclad guarantor of a nomination!
In the poll, I said there were two tiers, but maybe there are three? I’d be shocked to see Johansson and Zellweger left off (though I’m fervently rooting against the latter).
Next, we’ve got Theron next. Bombshell doesn’t seem to be performing well at all. It’s not gonna score broadly (it seems to have a very low ceiling). But we once thought she’d be a contender for the win and while I don’t think she is any more, that heat seems to be sticking (though, honestly, there is an uncanny valley effect with this performance that I find fascinating and off-putting in equal measure). There is precedent for a likely supporting nominee dragging in a leading candidate (Albert Nobbs, imo) and I think Robbie’s easily getting in her category.
I’d argue Ronan, N’yongo and Erivo are fighting for the last two slots. Flashing back to a year where Ronan was nominated, Kiera Knightley (in Atonement) gave a similarly garlanded performance. She got recognized by BAFTAs and the Globes, but missed out on SAG. Atonement did reasonably well during the precursors, but it went from buzzy best picture “probable” to also-ran nominee during the course of the race. Atonement arguably did better in the precursors, but not wildly so. But the movie feels like an ensemble piece too and other performers had very vivid moments (Garai, Ronan, McAvoy and Redgrave have moments I can recall in a heartbeat and I haven’t seen the film in a decade). Little Women is arguably similar – Ronan is a lead, but she’s surrounded by a vivid and memorable ensemble. I think that could hurt her here.
Erivo and N’yongo are clear leads surrounded by smaller and/or less memorable ensemble so they stand out more. Harriet has done quite well at the box office (stronger than the top tier candidates) and she’s a vivid stage performer, which I still believe gets people pockets of support in tight races. But she was ignored by BAFTA (which is super weird given that she’s a British performer) and Harriet has definitely struggled internationally. N’yongo is the biggest hit by far, but she’s also in the film that will get no support elsewhere, it’s a genre film and I suspect enough people share Tee/Magilla’s opinion on the film/performance itself.
When in doubt, go with Meryl Streep. Than go with the baitier film/performance and in this case, I’d argue that means Ronan and Erivo before N’yongo. But like I mentioned in the beginning, rules apply less frequently here.