Yeah, but Duvall got a SAG nomination.Mister Tee wrote
I guess a lot of us think this might turn out like 2014. Four candidates were set in stone so early, and the likely fifth seemed so damn dull, that we twisted ourselves in all kinds of directions trying to come up with alternatives. But, on nominations morning, the dullness of Robert Duvall came through (even while Marion Cotillard pulled the kind of thing we were looking for in lead actress). This year, Anthony Hopkins is playing the role of Duvall.
Fifth Supporting Actor?
Re: Fifth Supporting Actor?
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Re: Fifth Supporting Actor?
I think another thing going against Tom Hanks is that International Academy members may have no interest in even watching his film.
As I understand 'Mister Rogers' is not known outside of North America. The documentary about him a few years ago did virtually zero business internationally. And speaking personally the only reason I'll watch the film is because its directed by Marielle Heller whose previous two features I very much liked but I have zero interest in the subject matter of this film.
Still BAFTA nominated Hanks.
As I understand 'Mister Rogers' is not known outside of North America. The documentary about him a few years ago did virtually zero business internationally. And speaking personally the only reason I'll watch the film is because its directed by Marielle Heller whose previous two features I very much liked but I have zero interest in the subject matter of this film.
Still BAFTA nominated Hanks.
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Re: Fifth Supporting Actor?
To piggyback on Sabin's fine overview:
I guess a lot of us think this might turn out like 2014. Four candidates were set in stone so early, and the likely fifth seemed so damn dull, that we twisted ourselves in all kinds of directions trying to come up with alternatives. But, on nominations morning, the dullness of Robert Duvall came through (even while Marion Cotillard pulled the kind of thing we were looking for in lead actress). This year, Anthony Hopkins is playing the role of Duvall.
But, back up: first we have to give Hanks some thought. (After conceding the premise that Pitt, Pesci and Pacino -- barring a complete Irishman collapse -- will be there.) By all rights, Tom should be safe: he's scored everywhere important, and, oh, yeah -- it's one of his best recent performances. But we remember all too well that the Captain Phillips performance also got every precursor before crapping out with the Academy -- and that while Captain Phillips was a multi-nominated best picture contender, a distinction A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood won't remotely share (many are even leaving it off adapted screenplay). We'll have to hold our breath to see if he really makes; I guarantee the man himself won't be feeling confident.
Hopkins has lots of reasons to expect to fill the last slot, not least his turning up at BAFTA, one of the two groups (SAG the other) with substantial AMPAS overlap. I've said before I thought The Two Popes might have some Philomena juice, and, while it didn't match Philomena's best picture nomination there, it revived enough to no longer seem totally dead.
But, unlike the Duvall year, we have a huge number of candidates that could fill the spot without complaint. They're well covered by Sabin, but my comments:
Jamie Foxx got the SAG nod, and his film is going to have a $10 million weekend, yet nobody seems to be seriously considering him. Maybe we're sleeping on him?
I can't for the life of me figure how Lithgow has so little support -- I may like his performance more than the two females who are award-contending. But Bombshell is having to put all its effort toward securing those ladies' spots, so Lithgow has withered.
Chalamet is terrific in Little Women, but maybe people are tiring of him as perennial bubble candidate? And, as with Lithgow, his film has had to exert massive energy on its females, leaving little left over for the long-shot.
Alan Alda has surprised us with a nomination before, but that was for a double-digit nominee. Marriage Story's position in the best picture race -- presumably safe, but director unlikely and a win out of the question -- would seem to work against its getting nominations in all four acting categories. But it's wonderful work, and I'd be delighted if he slipped in.
I'm not as sanguine as many are for Song Kang-Ho. It's still REALLY hard for foreign-language performers to get supporting nominations -- DeTavira last year was the only one since Valentina Cortese. Unless you think the influx of newly-invited overseas voters will have impact. Even there...while Parasite is certainly an important enough film, I don't think the performance is that much a standout on its own.
I don't see Sam Rockwell at all -- he doesn't have enough to do in Jojo. I understand he's way better in Richard Jewell, but we know that movie's taken a dirt-nap.
Willem Dafoe has certainly proven he can get unlikely nods, but, I have to say, when I watched The Lighthouse night before last, my reaction was, I can easily see this getting the cinematography mention (it's beautifully lit), but I'd be shocked if enough people liked the movie enough to give Dafoe a nomination. It's a colorful performance, but the movie's too goddamn weird for older voters. Last year, Dafoe benefited from a thin field; this year, the competitive race should box him out.
I guess a lot of us think this might turn out like 2014. Four candidates were set in stone so early, and the likely fifth seemed so damn dull, that we twisted ourselves in all kinds of directions trying to come up with alternatives. But, on nominations morning, the dullness of Robert Duvall came through (even while Marion Cotillard pulled the kind of thing we were looking for in lead actress). This year, Anthony Hopkins is playing the role of Duvall.
But, back up: first we have to give Hanks some thought. (After conceding the premise that Pitt, Pesci and Pacino -- barring a complete Irishman collapse -- will be there.) By all rights, Tom should be safe: he's scored everywhere important, and, oh, yeah -- it's one of his best recent performances. But we remember all too well that the Captain Phillips performance also got every precursor before crapping out with the Academy -- and that while Captain Phillips was a multi-nominated best picture contender, a distinction A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood won't remotely share (many are even leaving it off adapted screenplay). We'll have to hold our breath to see if he really makes; I guarantee the man himself won't be feeling confident.
Hopkins has lots of reasons to expect to fill the last slot, not least his turning up at BAFTA, one of the two groups (SAG the other) with substantial AMPAS overlap. I've said before I thought The Two Popes might have some Philomena juice, and, while it didn't match Philomena's best picture nomination there, it revived enough to no longer seem totally dead.
But, unlike the Duvall year, we have a huge number of candidates that could fill the spot without complaint. They're well covered by Sabin, but my comments:
Jamie Foxx got the SAG nod, and his film is going to have a $10 million weekend, yet nobody seems to be seriously considering him. Maybe we're sleeping on him?
I can't for the life of me figure how Lithgow has so little support -- I may like his performance more than the two females who are award-contending. But Bombshell is having to put all its effort toward securing those ladies' spots, so Lithgow has withered.
Chalamet is terrific in Little Women, but maybe people are tiring of him as perennial bubble candidate? And, as with Lithgow, his film has had to exert massive energy on its females, leaving little left over for the long-shot.
Alan Alda has surprised us with a nomination before, but that was for a double-digit nominee. Marriage Story's position in the best picture race -- presumably safe, but director unlikely and a win out of the question -- would seem to work against its getting nominations in all four acting categories. But it's wonderful work, and I'd be delighted if he slipped in.
I'm not as sanguine as many are for Song Kang-Ho. It's still REALLY hard for foreign-language performers to get supporting nominations -- DeTavira last year was the only one since Valentina Cortese. Unless you think the influx of newly-invited overseas voters will have impact. Even there...while Parasite is certainly an important enough film, I don't think the performance is that much a standout on its own.
I don't see Sam Rockwell at all -- he doesn't have enough to do in Jojo. I understand he's way better in Richard Jewell, but we know that movie's taken a dirt-nap.
Willem Dafoe has certainly proven he can get unlikely nods, but, I have to say, when I watched The Lighthouse night before last, my reaction was, I can easily see this getting the cinematography mention (it's beautifully lit), but I'd be shocked if enough people liked the movie enough to give Dafoe a nomination. It's a colorful performance, but the movie's too goddamn weird for older voters. Last year, Dafoe benefited from a thin field; this year, the competitive race should box him out.
Re: Fifth Supporting Actor?
I think there's a sizeable portion of the Academy acting branch who would be happy to see Hopkins nominated for a fifth time after many years. He's also been promoting his film quite charmingly. Brad Pitt gave him a special shout-out even though he wasn't present at the Globes, having worked with Hopkins twice decades ago. So I think he's in a reasonably good position for a nomination. What I wonder about is whether one or both of the "Irishman" actors, Pacino and Pesci, will miss out somehow.
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Re: Fifth Supporting Actor?
Heh. When I meant I was stealing Sabin's thunder, I actually thought he'd start a thread for best actress.
The three-P actors I'm as confident on as you, but Hanks is someone I'd downgrade from lock, specifically because of his recent history, as well as the general underperformance of his film. But Hopkins is way behind him. I agree with you - I don't think people care, nor am I convinced Netflix will do a multiple campaign particularly well. And I'll echo you that of the coat-tailers, Alan Alda seems the most likely.
That said, I'm assuming I'm just trying to make this race more interesting than it is and it'll be the five that it was everywhere.
The three-P actors I'm as confident on as you, but Hanks is someone I'd downgrade from lock, specifically because of his recent history, as well as the general underperformance of his film. But Hopkins is way behind him. I agree with you - I don't think people care, nor am I convinced Netflix will do a multiple campaign particularly well. And I'll echo you that of the coat-tailers, Alan Alda seems the most likely.
That said, I'm assuming I'm just trying to make this race more interesting than it is and it'll be the five that it was everywhere.
Fifth Supporting Actor?
Last one, I promise.
Unlike the other categories, this one is pretty typical. Barring a considerable upset, we’re looking at Hanks, Pacino, Pesci, and Pitt. It’s possible voters look past Hanks because his film has lost considerable momentum but I wouldn’t bet on it. It’s pretty astonishing that nothing this decade has gotten Hanks a nomination: Bridge of Spies, Captain Phillips, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Post, Saving Mr Banks, Sully... At the start of the decade, if you had listed these as the projects he would be working on, you’d imagine he’d be on track to repeat if not top his stellar run in the 90’s. Instead, it’s been twenty years since his last nomination and he’s finally going supporting. To be fair, playing Mr Rogers is a break for something new on his part.
Who else?
The Globes and BAFTAS went for Hopkins. On paper, he should be the one. He hasn’t had a nomination since 1997 and a role this juicy in almost as long. Working against him is the fact that I just don’t think people care about The Two Popes. Sure, he has a BAFTA nom but how much of that is Brits honoring their own? And I wonder if Netflix can handle campaigns for the films they have out. But mostly, I just don’t know if people care about The Two Popes. I think his best chance might be people cross his name out of habit.
Jamie Foxx is allegedly quite good in Just Mercy. I don’t have any faith that enough people have see it.
Song Kang-Ho is getting talked up a bit for his work in Parasite. Working in his favor is the fact that Hollywood clearly loves this film. Working against him is that fact that foreign-language ensembles almost never have performances singled out. Usually it’s standout protagonists. He certainly deserves a nomination... but so does everyone in the cast.
On paper, John Lithgow looks like as sure a bet as any with his old age makeup. But the film has seemingly hit a wall and I wonder how many fans he’s made with his weirdly sympathetic turn.
If the Academy votes for a coattail pick, I’m seeing mentions of Timothee Chalamet for Little Women, Sam Rockwell (or Taika?) for Jojo Rabbit, but i think Alan Alda might be more likely for Marriage Story. They’ve seen the film. He may only be in the middle part of the film but he represents arguably the most likable character — and provides the films moral compass.
Who does that leave? Willem DaFoe for The Lighthouse. He hasn’t shown up for a Globe, BAFTA, or SAG but he’s been nominated for two years prior. While it may not seem like the film has caught on, it’s actually more financially successful than the films of his previous two nominated films. He’s giving a big, showy, goofy performance at a time when he’s more embraced than ever. And A24 is pushing it hard. And the thing I wonder about is this: are the fans of The Lighthouse more passionate than the fans of The Two Popes? Is he like Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals.
Unlike the other categories, this one is pretty typical. Barring a considerable upset, we’re looking at Hanks, Pacino, Pesci, and Pitt. It’s possible voters look past Hanks because his film has lost considerable momentum but I wouldn’t bet on it. It’s pretty astonishing that nothing this decade has gotten Hanks a nomination: Bridge of Spies, Captain Phillips, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Post, Saving Mr Banks, Sully... At the start of the decade, if you had listed these as the projects he would be working on, you’d imagine he’d be on track to repeat if not top his stellar run in the 90’s. Instead, it’s been twenty years since his last nomination and he’s finally going supporting. To be fair, playing Mr Rogers is a break for something new on his part.
Who else?
The Globes and BAFTAS went for Hopkins. On paper, he should be the one. He hasn’t had a nomination since 1997 and a role this juicy in almost as long. Working against him is the fact that I just don’t think people care about The Two Popes. Sure, he has a BAFTA nom but how much of that is Brits honoring their own? And I wonder if Netflix can handle campaigns for the films they have out. But mostly, I just don’t know if people care about The Two Popes. I think his best chance might be people cross his name out of habit.
Jamie Foxx is allegedly quite good in Just Mercy. I don’t have any faith that enough people have see it.
Song Kang-Ho is getting talked up a bit for his work in Parasite. Working in his favor is the fact that Hollywood clearly loves this film. Working against him is that fact that foreign-language ensembles almost never have performances singled out. Usually it’s standout protagonists. He certainly deserves a nomination... but so does everyone in the cast.
On paper, John Lithgow looks like as sure a bet as any with his old age makeup. But the film has seemingly hit a wall and I wonder how many fans he’s made with his weirdly sympathetic turn.
If the Academy votes for a coattail pick, I’m seeing mentions of Timothee Chalamet for Little Women, Sam Rockwell (or Taika?) for Jojo Rabbit, but i think Alan Alda might be more likely for Marriage Story. They’ve seen the film. He may only be in the middle part of the film but he represents arguably the most likable character — and provides the films moral compass.
Who does that leave? Willem DaFoe for The Lighthouse. He hasn’t shown up for a Globe, BAFTA, or SAG but he’s been nominated for two years prior. While it may not seem like the film has caught on, it’s actually more financially successful than the films of his previous two nominated films. He’s giving a big, showy, goofy performance at a time when he’s more embraced than ever. And A24 is pushing it hard. And the thing I wonder about is this: are the fans of The Lighthouse more passionate than the fans of The Two Popes? Is he like Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals.
"How's the despair?"