Making Sense of Supporting Actress

[Okri]

1. If you were to ask me all the reasons performers get two nominations in one year, I’d say Scarlett Johansson ticks off about 75% of them, but I’m still surprised she’s getting in so easily for Jojo Rabbit. If this situation felt more like six-into-five, she’d be the one I’d drop. But it doesn’t feel like that (and of course, while it feels like that in best actress, it’s more three-into-two).

2. Re: 2010, who else was there? Mila Kunis (and Barbara Herhsey) for Black Swan and Olivia Williams for The Ghost Writer, I suppose. Sony Classics completely botched the release for Another Year, or Leslie Manville would’ve gotten in easily. Looking at the people who posted predictions here, we were all over the place after the Adams, Leo and Bonham-Carter. There was confusion over where Hallie Steinfeld would end up. We all thought Black Swan was more liked then it turned out to be (everyone overestimated it in our predictions). Jackie Weaver gave the performance that would easily get my vote, though.

3. I wonder about Zhao Shuzhen. I feel like The Farewell needed to be doing better overall for me to feel confident about her chances. I thought she was terrific in it and the final narrative beat (and credits) give her such a punchy and memorable moment. If I were predicting The Farewell for best picture, I would probably predict her.

[Sabin]

Precious Doll wrote
Frankly the Academy should just nominate the five ladies (or four ladies and a girl) from Parasite and be done with it. They are all far superior to any of the performances I've seen that are in contention and probably to any eligible supporting performances period.

I would agree. I think A.O. Scott did that on his NY Times ballot. And why stop there? Nominate the men for supporting actor as well.

Especially because it’s hard to see one standout performance from the film, especially with the women. For me, it was Park So-dam who I’m most haunted by from the film.

[anonymous1980]

I'd be very shocked if she got in on her own.

Kinda like Jackie Weaver in Animal Kingdom. Her nod for Silver Linings Playbook was purely coat tail but how did she manage that first one?

But Jackie Weaver had a LA critics win. Then again winning the big three last year didn't do Ethan Hawke any good.

Jacki Weaver also got in at the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice. Zhao Shuzhen only has Critics Choice.

I think she's sitting in a position similar to Hong Chau.

Hong Chau got in at SAG, Globes and Critics Choice though.

[OscarGuy]

I know you guys don't care about smaller groups, but Zhao Shuzhen has 16 nominations from precursors (based on precursors I've tallied through Jan. 3). Only Jennifer Lopez and Laura Dern have more. If you complain about majors recognizing her, she's been nominated by the Broadcasters, Chicago Film Critics among the majors.

I think she's sitting in a position similar to Hong Chau. The differences is that Chau was in a film no one much cared for. If people saw Awkwafina, then they noticed Zhao Shuzhen.

[Precious Doll]

I'd be very shocked if she got in on her own.

Kinda like Jackie Weaver in Animal Kingdom. Her nod for Silver Linings Playbook was purely coat tail but how did she manage that first one?

But Jackie Weaver had a LA critics win. Then again winning the big three last year didn't do Ethan Hawke any good.

[Reza]

I'd be very shocked if she got in on her own.

Kinda like Jackie Weaver in Animal Kingdom. Her nod for Silver Linings Playbook was purely coat tail but how did she manage that first one?

[Reza]

Frankly the Academy should just nominate the five ladies (or four ladies and a girl) from Parasite and be done with it. They are all far superior to any of the performances I've seen that are in contention and probably to any eligible supporting performances period.

Very true.

[anonymous1980]

I keep calling her "Nai Nai" as opposed to her birth name because it's a fairly successful branding attempt by the filmmakers to introduce her to the world. Who wouldn't want to meet Nai Nai? She hasn't really won any awards this season nor picked up any nominations, but she has one big thing going for her that many other Supporting Actress contenders who failed to make it through do not... Visibility. The Farewell is certainly being seen more than Richard Jewell or The Report. And in terms of the awards season, it's being seen more than Hustlers too. I don't have Zhao Shuzhen down for a nomination but she's closer than we think.

The problem with Zhao Shuzhen is that we haven't had a nominee like her in recent years: An unknown (indeed I believe this to be her first film role) in the supporting category from a film that's, at best, in the bubble for nominations and who hasn't scored a major prize or landed a nomination in any of the key precursors

Shocker out-of-the-blue nominees happen but they're either from Best Picture front-runners or films with an acting front-runner (voters were already watching the films, the nominee got swept in). It helps if they're a former nominee or a respected beloved veteran. Since "Nai-Nai" is neither, in order for her to get in, The Farewell would have to be a surprising late-breaking favorite: Scoring Picture, Actress and Original Screenplay nominations as well. I'd be very shocked if she got in on her own.

[Precious Doll]

I wouldn't rule out Cho Yeo-Jeong for Parasite.

Whilst Neon are only campaigning for Song Kang Ho, if the Academy go for Parasite in a big way and nominate Song, Cho Yeo-Jeong could be carried along. I know the chances are remote but its such an uninspiring bunch of potential nominees.

I've yet to see Bombshell or Kathy Bates but I'll be surprised if I find Bombshell any better than serviceable lightweight entertainment given Jay Roach's track record despite its subject matter.

Frankly the Academy should just nominate the five ladies (or four ladies and a girl) from Parasite and be done with it. They are all far superior to any of the performances I've seen that are in contention and probably to any eligible supporting performances period.

[Big Magilla]

I'll throw out two more names who've appeared on less prestigious lists:

Octavia Spencer, Luce
Julie Walters, Wild Rose

Anything can happen. Only Laura Dern seems to be invincible this year.

[Sabin]

Best Supporting Actress continues to confuse. This isn't the screwiest lineup in recent years (that would be 2015, where two of its *leading* supporting contenders were also leading actresses) but it's certainly one of the most flux.

Let's line up all the actresses nominated for a Golden Globe, SAG, or BAFTA.

Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Annette Bening, The Report
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood

So, that leaves us with nine contenders. Heck, let's toss in Nai Nai from The Farewell to make it an even ten.

The last time this category was so spread out, it was in 2017 where we saw eight contenders over the three awards (Blige, Chau, Hunter, Janney, Manville, Metcalf, Spencer, and Scott Thomas to refresh your memory). This time, we have more contenders but it somehow feels less unpredictable.

Two of them are in. Laura Dern and Margot Robbie picked up all three nominations.

Most likely, we can cross Margot Robbie off the list for Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood as well.

I give in on Scarlett Johansson. She has BAFTA and SAG nominations for a Best Picture underdog that just had a very good day. Despite being a somewhat divisive figure, she's a very popular actor who somehow missed out on nominations that were very much in grasp (Lost in Translation, The Girl with the Pearl Earring, Match Point). This should be her year. And a nomination for Jojo Rabbit would be more than a coattails nomination. She has a very substantial role. I remain a little doubtful about her chances because most of the impact of her performance comes from her absence from the film rather than what she's doing on-screen.

Jennifer Lopez is also an interesting case. Clearly, the BAFTAs didn't care much for Hustlers (or any person of color as Twitter would tell us) but will the Academy? It's easy to blink and miss it but Hustlers underperformed this Oscar season, missing out on little things here and there like an Eddie nomination, a long shot WGA nomination, a National Board of Review placement. For such a giant hit, it sure feels like *nobody* is thinking about it. Jennifer Lopez is probably in a good place for a nomination but I think if the competition was stronger, she'd be on shakier ground.

So, that leaves Kathy Bates (Globe), Annette Bening (Globe), Nicole Kidman (SAG), Florence Pugh (BAFTA), and Nai Nai.

I keep calling her "Nai Nai" as opposed to her birth name because it's a fairly successful branding attempt by the filmmakers to introduce her to the world. Who wouldn't want to meet Nai Nai? She hasn't really won any awards this season nor picked up any nominations, but she has one big thing going for her that many other Supporting Actress contenders who failed to make it through do not... Visibility. The Farewell is certainly being seen more than Richard Jewell or The Report. And in terms of the awards season, it's being seen more than Hustlers too. I don't have Zhao Shuzhen down for a nomination but she's closer than we think.

Kathy Bates started the year off strong with her National Board of Review award and her Golden Globe nomination but Richard Jewell isn't just a flop. It's a notorious flop that's received so much toxic press for its depiction of a female journalist that people in the film are apologizing for it. I haven't seen the film but I have no doubt she's quite good. It just feels like the film has the stink of failure on it and getting people to see it will be an uphill task.

If Richard Jewell has the stink of failure, then The Report doesn't seem to exist. Owen Gleiberman wrote about it being dropped on Amazon. If voters were to see the film, they'd be treated to Annette Bening's excellent work as Dianne Feinstein. I'm not sure enough voters know it exists.

Nicole Kidman should be a shoo-in for Bombshell. It has more visibility than these other contenders. The only problem is she hasn't really turned up anywhere else for her small, un-showy role. The Screen Actor's Guild nominated it for four awards so clearly, they're fans. It's hard to imagine the film or her performance getting as favorable an audience elsewhere. If they mark down Margot Robbie, they'll likely be inclined to spread the wealth.

That leaves Florence Pugh for Little Women. She has a few things going for her. She had a great year with Midsommar to her credit. The Academy likes honoring British ingenues. It's like to end up a Best Picture nominee. I think what she really has going for her is historical precedent. In 2017 when the race was equally in flux, the went with Blige, Janney & Metcalf, Spencer and faced with a load of options they went with Manville, the BAFTA nominee in the surging Best Picture contender. This feels like a similar scenario.

So, I'm predicting the nominees will be Dern (52), Johansson (35), Lopez (50), Pugh (24), and Robbie (29) in what has to be (excuse me for sounding piggish) one of the most physically attractive lineups in history. Seriously! Laura Dern is the old lady of the bunch.

I did a little research and I realized that not only was last year's lineup in this category all actresses under fifty, but the 2017 (year of '16) lineup was all under fifty. In 2016 (year of '15), they were all under forty save for Winslet who just turned that year and Jennifer Jason Leigh who was 53. There hasn't been a Nai Nai since June Squibb.

If I had to rank the likelihood of nomination:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story
2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell
3. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women
5. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
7. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
8. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
9. Annette Bening, The Report
10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood