PGA Nominees

[nightwingnova]

I would be disappointed in the Academy if they chose 1917 over Once Upon...Hollywood, Parasite, Irishman, and Marriage Story. The past few cycles they made good choices, except last year when the options were anemic.

[Sonic Youth]

No one has an appetite for a film that glorifies war, but a film about the senseless brutality of war is not that.

I know. I mean any war film with killings and explosions, regardless of its theme. But I can see I'm taking my current preferences and state of mind and applying a consensus that doesn't exist onto everyone else.

[anonymous1980]

Guy Lodge pointed out that if 1917 wins, it'll be the first winner since The Departed to win without a festival launch.

It will also be the first Best Picture winner without a single SAG award nomination since Braveheart way back in 1995.

[Big Magilla]

Well then, my zeitgeist is different from everybody else's. I'd have thought, because of the endless wars and because of all the worldwide strife in general, general audiences would have no appetite for a war epic. Clearly I was wrong. I guess everything that's going on has made people nostalgic for "honorable" wars. It still looks like a single-shot headache to me.

No one has an appetite for a film that glorifies war, but a film about the senseless brutality of war is not that.

[Okri]

Guy Lodge pointed out that if 1917 wins, it'll be the first winner since The Departed to win without a festival launch.

[Sonic Youth]

Well then, my zeitgeist is different from everybody else's. I'd have thought, because of the endless wars and because of all the worldwide strife in general, general audiences would have no appetite for a war epic. Clearly I was wrong. I guess everything that's going on has made people nostalgic for "honorable" wars. It still looks like a single-shot headache to me.

[OscarGuy]

I feel good about seeing the trend coming. It's why I picked Sam Mendes for the Golden Globe. Although The Irishman was probably the frontrunner for awhile, I always felt the Netflix factor would hurt it. I had a sense that something else would win, then I saw the reviews for 1917 and then heard about the "gimmick" and it just seemed like the perfect fit for Oscar (and everyone else for that matter).

[Big Magilla]

I think 1917 came along at the right time. It's a film that captures the zeitgeist of our time, a time when the world is in the midst of endless wars. A film about the first world war, which was supposed to have been "the war to end all wars", is as good an example of any of what we should all be afraid of, another world war, especially with the U.S. and Iran on the brick of starting one.

For Sama, about the turmoil in Syria, which was nominated for BAFTAs for Best Documentary, Best Foreign Language Film and Best British Film, is another example of where thinking people's minds are. Probably the only "big theme" that would capture the zeitgeist more is a thought-provoking film about global warming - put Leo and Brad in something like that directed by Scorsese or Tarantino or Spielberg and you might have something that would be impossible to beat.

[Precious Doll]

It looks like its 1917's Oscar to lose.

I suspect Parasite will go home with only one award which it has been locked into winning pretty soon after its U.S. release.

[Sonic Youth]

Maybe "Moonlight" WAS in the wrong envelope after all. It looks like the industry is reverting back to the most standard Oscar formulas for their Best Picture choices again. They could do something REALLY radical, like award Best Picture to a Foreign Language film; or to a subversive retelling of Hollywood history; or to Marin Scorsese. Looks like they'll once again take the path of least resistance.

Okay, maybe 1917 is the best film of the year - haven't seen it yet - but there's a more far-reaching principle here. :p

[Mister Tee]

Stat to ponder: a long time ago in 2001 is the last time the DGA award went to a film that hadn't already won either the PGA prize or the Golden Globe for best director. 1917 has won both.

[HarryGoldfarb]

1917 won...

[Big Magilla]

I may agree with the Best Picture lineup for the first time since 1994, something I thought was going to be impossible since the 2009 expansion. My problem is in deciding the order in which I would rank them. At this point, I can't even decide whether I like Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood,), The Irishman,1917 or Parasite best or which of the others I would rank first after them but probably Marriage Story.

[Sabin]

The minute these nominees dropped, I think everyone knew which of these eight were going to go on to be nominated, which one was a probably-not-at-this-point (Ford v Ferrari), and which one was the fluffy box office hit space-filler (Knives Out).

Based on these nominees, it all seems very cut and dry. There will be eight. Has it ever been more cut and dry?

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood, and Parasite all have DGA, PGA, BAFTA, and SAG nominations.

1917 and Jojo Rabbit have three of the above. Joker and Marriage Story have two.

Little Women may only have one PGA nomination but with glowing reviews and strong box office, it seems like a better bet than I initially expected. Also working in its favor is the fact that since the field was expanded it's never dipped below eight nominees.

After that... what do voters turn to? Save for the other two PGA nominees (Ford v Ferrari, Knives Out) and a SAG nominee (Bombshell), that's it.

My impression of Bombshell is it looks like it has a lot in common with SAG nominees that don't cross over. It probably has a better chance than August Osage Country, The Butler , or Mudbound but I get a very similar vibe from it.

The last time the Academy nominated something that wasn't up for any of those four awards (since creating a flexible roster of nominees), it was in 2015 for Room. Before that it was in 2014 for Selma, in 2012 for Amour, and in 2011 for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and The Tree of Life. Room and Selma had previously shown up at the Golden Globes, Amour and The Tree of Life (mostly director) at the critics awards, and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close in Harvey Weinstein's pact with satan. I think we can all agree that there won't be a Weinstein showing.

Golden Globe contenders that could make it in are Dolemite is my Name (really don't see it), Rocketman, and Knives Out (also a PGA nominee). As far as critic's contenders go, everything that won major awards is already in play. The closest I can figure out is Uncut Gems. Ford v Ferrari fits none of these profiles.

If I had to rank them right now it would be:
1. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
2. The Irishman
3. 1917
4. Parasite
5. Jojo Rabbit
6. Marriage Story
7. Joker
8. Little Women
9-10. Either Ford v Ferrari, Knives Out, Rocketman, or Uncut Gems

Would anyone disagree with that?

[Mister Tee]

It speaks to how strong a mainstream year it was that, apart from maybe Knives Out, there was no room for a frivolous, Crazy Rich Asians/Bridesmaids/Wonder Woman nomination (even Joker is taken seriously by some).

Hell, there are 7 or more here that I could see making an old-style best picture slate of 5.