I haven't seen The Farewell yet. It seems like it would be up their alley. Since the SAG-AFTRA merger, they've been all about diversity and it's been available to watch for sometime.Mister Tee wrote
Finally, a movie you both cite, The Farewell. I'm not quite sure what to to do with this. I very much thought, when I saw the film back in August, that it would do well here. And the fact it's been around long enough for lots of folks to see it in home viewing, only builds its case. And the Asian factor might help, with a Guild that seems all-in on diversity. But I wonder if there are too any heavyweights in the race this year, enough to box it out.
I'm the most positive about the two movies with the worst chance of getting Oscar nominations: Dolemite is My Name and Hustlers. This year's Captain Fantastic is certainly Honey Boy, although I'm not quite ballsy enough to predict it yet.
I have no certainty about The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I'm a little more reticent on the former, which certainly boasts great star-power but it's in a film I'm not sure they care about. I think that caveat affects Marriage Story quite a bit. The problem with Marriage Story isn't that it's a movie about two white showbiz folks, but they're two white showbiz folks you might not care that much about. I know I didn't care that much about them and (this is strictly anecdotal) I've heard more than one SAG voter echo that.
A movie that might have a slightly better chance might end up being Jojo Rabbit. It's star-studded, populist, and despite being love it/hate it, it has pretty big crossover appeal across age groups.
In fact...
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