The Post-Festival Landscape

[Sabin]

MaxWilder wrote
I like Taika Waititi but I'm deeply skeptical of Jojo Rabbit, Oscar front-runner.

I mean, couldn't we say the same thing about the past few winners? Peter Farrelly? Guillermo Del Toro?

"Quirky foreign filmmaker makes breakthrough U.S. feature, wins Oscar" may not be the new normal but it's not far off.

[MaxWilder]

That's why I put it in quotes.

I like Taika Waititi but I'm deeply skeptical of Jojo Rabbit, Oscar front-runner.

[Sabin]

MaxWilder wrote
Q: How many people vote on the TIFF audience award? Is it possible that they felt some embarrassment/responsibility for Green Book and went out of their way to pick something 'risky'?

If they did, they wouldn't have picked Jojo Rabbit. Jojo Rabbit has been described as "risky" by no critics.

Also, it's Toronto. They don't care.

[MaxWilder]

Q: How many people vote on the TIFF audience award? Is it possible that they felt some embarrassment/responsibility for Green Book and went out of their way to pick something 'risky'?

[Sabin]

Reza wrote
I'm curious why Greta Gerwig felt the need to make yet another version of Little Women. Her past films have all bordered on being quirky and original. Yet she went for something very old fashioned. Granted Jo Marsh is quirky or maybe it was a case of loving the book while growing up. I doubt her film will make any dent with the Oscars.

I'm gonna disagree with pretty much everything you just said. I think almost everything Greta Gerwig was majorly involved with in the past has been quirky and original. Lady Bird and Frances Ha (for which she was clearly a major creative life force) are among my favorites of the decade. I think you're underestimating the pull that Little Women has on women (and certainly men, but women). The best case you could make against it is that "Oh, she's just doing another boring adaptation of Little Women" when she's already made it clear she's not doing a boring a adaptation of Little Women. This film will be told non-linearly, focusing on themes rather than incident, and apparently queer identity (!). It's entirely possible that it's a sophomore stumble but she has a remarkable amount of good will under her sails, a lot of talented people... I think there's reason to expect an excellent film.

Reza wrote

Sabin wrote
To be honest, I don't know if voters are going to like Judy more than Marriage Story. Last year, they gave Best Picture to Green Book. Which movie is probably closer in spirit?

Neither is actually. JoJo Rabbit may well win best picture.

Right, nobody has been terribly singled out for acting praise in Jojo Rabbit and we're mostly talking about the effects of a Best Picture nomination on an acting category.

Maybe if Best Supporting Actress is a weak field, Johansson could sneak or, or maybe Sam Rockwell for a third year in a row (!). At this point, yes, I would agree with you that Jojo Rabbit is probably the best bet for Best Picture.

[Reza]

To be honest, I don't know if voters are going to like Judy more than Marriage Story. Last year, they gave Best Picture to Green Book. Which movie is probably closer in spirit?

Neither is actually. JoJo Rabbit may well win best picture.

[Reza]

I'm curious why Greta Gerwig felt the need to make yet another version of Little Women. Her past films have all bordered on being quirky and original. Yet she went for something very old fashioned. Granted Jo Marsh is quirky or maybe it was a case of loving the book while growing up. I doubt her film will make any dent with the Oscars.

[Sabin]

Reza wrote
If this is the criteria then surely Scarlett Johansson has a better chance than Renée Zellweger. Marriage Story has received universal praise for all the actors as well overall for the film itself compared to Judy. And surely Johansson is due compared to the rather tepid competition this year.

To be honest, I don't know if voters are going to like Judy more than Marriage Story. Last year, they gave Best Picture to Green Book. Which movie is probably closer in spirit?

However, by all accounts, Adam Driver is more the dominant performance in Marriage Story. Johansson may get her first nomination but she really needs to hire a publicist to make her public statements. I certainly don't care about her opinions about being able to play any role she wants or how she wants to work with Woody Allen again, but they're not going to help her on the trail.

FilmFan720 wrote
Renee also has the advantage that it is looking like Best Actress, at least awards wise, is looking like it is going towards being a weaker year. Glenn Close might well have won last year had it not been Olivia Colman, an actress on the rise who, from the day the film premiered, was being hailed as a masterful performance in a film that voters really liked. There doesn't seem to be one of those brewing around this year...Harriet and The Aeronauts seem to be fizzling, Johanssen seems to have a lot of strikes against her, Clemency is looking to small to make any sort of dent, Awkwafina's nomination would be her reward...unless Bombshell or Little Women come on strong with a legitimate candidate, Renee could run this board purely on momentum.

Agreed. I think we all have a case of short-term memory but Glenn Close winning was a big surprise on the night of the Golden Globes. She spent the bulk of the Oscar season with a "Dammit, I'm gonna lose again, aren't I?" look on her face. I'm not sure Julianne Moore would have been nominated for Still Alice last year.

[Reza]

As for Renee Zellweger winning a second Oscar, it's really all about the competition. If you can't make a more compelling case for somebody else, it doesn't matter. Not to revisit 2004, but I would imagine that most voters felt that Annette Bening deserved her first Oscar before Hillary Swank won her second, but they saw Being Julia and they saw Million Dollar Baby and they made their choice.

If this is the criteria then surely Scarlett Johansson has a better chance than Renée Zellweger. Marriage Story has received universal praise for all the actors as well overall for the film itself compared to Judy. And surely Johansson is due compared to the rather tepid competition this year.

[FilmFan720]

Renee also has the advantage that it is looking like Best Actress, at least awards wise, is looking like it is going towards being a weaker year. Glenn Close might well have won last year had it not been Olivia Colman, an actress on the rise who, from the day the film premiered, was being hailed as a masterful performance in a film that voters really liked. There doesn't seem to be one of those brewing around this year...Harriet and The Aeronauts seem to be fizzling, Johanssen seems to have a lot of strikes against her, Clemency is looking to small to make any sort of dent, Awkwafina's nomination would be her reward...unless Bombshell or Little Women come on strong with a legitimate candidate, Renee could run this board purely on momentum.

[Sabin]

MaxWilder wrote
Rock-solid reasoning but we just saw this Academy ignore everything extra-textual in the best actress race. Glenn Close had all the sympathy in the world and it wasn't enough. If I were an opposing strategist I'd just keep reminding voters that Zellweger already has an Oscar.

Sure, but one of the reasons why Olivia Colman beat Glenn Close (aside from the fact that her performance was better) is that The Favourite had more overall support than The Wife. I'm saying I think Judy might end up being more than just "The Renee Zellweger Oscar Film." It might end up with a few nominations, including one for Best Picture.

As for Renee Zellweger winning a second Oscar, it's really all about the competition. If you can't make a more compelling case for somebody else, it doesn't matter. Not to revisit 2004, but I would imagine that most voters felt that Annette Bening deserved her first Oscar before Hillary Swank won her second, but they saw Being Julia and they saw Million Dollar Baby and they made their choice.

[MaxWilder]

I think that Renee Zellweger discussing this sexist treatment (and it is) is going to get her a lot of attention, sympathy, and momentum in the Oscar race. If she isn't the front-runner now, after at least one critic's award, a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy (her FOURTH Golden Globe), a SAG Award, and considering it is a British Film, a BAFTA... yeah, she's probably going to win an Academy Award.

Rock-solid reasoning but we just saw this Academy ignore everything extra-textual in the best actress race. Glenn Close had all the sympathy in the world and it wasn't enough. If I were an opposing strategist I'd just keep reminding voters that Zellweger already has an Oscar.

[Sabin]

As noted, Judy has a 85% on RT and a 64% on Metacritic. This is not a lavishly received film, but as it enters wide release and leaves a festival environment, I'm sure those numbers will go up. Judy seems to be getting pegged as a Renee Zellweger vehicle and that's all for Oscar season. Maybe not though. It could end up being comfort food for Academy members. Roadside Attractions isn't a sure thing yet with Academy voters (their big breakout was Manchester) but this film is GOING to be seen, so... who knows? Maybe it ends up in the final ten.

As for Renee Zellweger's chances, I think she has something else working in her favor. Right now, the big thing working against her is what our MaxWilder said in another thread. Do voters want to honor her when she hasn't been in anything worthwhile for over fifteen years. Renee Zellweger's resume strikes me as someone who might give up acting, honestly. Her last worthwhile film was Cinderella Man (in which she was throwaway), the disappointing Bridget Jones sequel, or Cold Mountain for which she won an Oscar. However with all the conversation right now about women in the industry (and out of the industry), Renee Zellweger was a small lightning rod of attention in 2014 at the Elle magazine Women in Hollywood Awards when (let's be frank) she looked unrecognizable. Articles were written about it, most famously by Owen Gleiberman. She had to come forward and give a statement that she was happy with her appearance. I think that Renee Zellweger discussing this sexist treatment (and it is) is going to get her a lot of attention, sympathy, and momentum in the Oscar race. If she isn't the front-runner now, after at least one critic's award, a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy (her FOURTH Golden Globe), a SAG Award, and considering it is a British Film, a BAFTA... yeah, she's probably going to win an Academy Award.

I just found something interesting on IMDB, which got me more excited for the film than anything I've seen previously. Judy is written by Tom Edge, the creator of the Netflix show Lovesick (previously, INFAMOUSLY known as Scrotal Recall). Just a wonderful show. And a wonderful writer.

Yes, I do think we might be underrating this film as a whole a bit. It seems like the kind of lightweight film that perhaps gets a nomination for Best Picture (in an expanded slate), Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, and perhaps something for Costume, Production Design, or Gabriel Yared's score.

[OscarGuy]

From all I've heard, Renee Zellweger might be unstoppable for Judy.

[Sabin]

Great writeup, Tee!

I've been wondering how the critics are going to go this year.

Last year, the film critics largely lined up behind Roma. Even though there was some dissension (National Board going for Green Book, LAFCA going for Debra Granik, NSFC going for The Rider), it certainly felt like something of a sweep for Picture, Director, and Cinematography. Adding to that feeling was Ethan Hawke, Olivia Colman, and Regina King winning just about everything. It doesn't seem like 2019 has a Roma.

Unless The Irishman or Little Women are truly exceptional, Marriage Story or Parasite probably fit the bill for the critics (not National Board of Review). Marriage Story seems like a good fit for NYFCC.

Adam Driver is by all accounts the standout in Marriage Story, and he also has The Report to his year so he's likely to win more than one award.

Best Actress will probably be all over the place with every contender getting a statue someplace. I think Jennifer Lopez is going to pick up something from NYFCC (if not more) for Hustlers. Either Best Actress or Supporting Actress.

Best Supporting Actor is similarly in flux at the moment. Willem DaFoe had such a strong year with the critics in 2017, there's no reason to believe he won't follow suit again this year, especially considering that all the major contenders thus far are movie stars carpetbagging in this category. Tracy Letts might be worth looking out for. He's apparently quite good in Ford v Ferrari and he plays Mr. Dashwood in Little Women. He's been on the bubble waiting to break out for some time.

For Best Supporting Actress, Laura Dern hasn't won anything from a major critics group since her 1985 New Generation Award. She's probably got a good chance at picking up some statues for Marriage Story.

Director could go to a few different people this year. Bong Joon-ho for Parasite, Noah Baumbach for Marriage Story, and Terrence Malick for A Hidden Life. Of course, we still need to hear about The Irishman. Screenplay looks like Baumbach. He's already a screenplay-sweeper back in 2005. He will probably do very well again. Although something like Knives Out could surprise someplace.