As every year, here are my pre-precursors predictions. Still three weeks to go until the first awards are announced but I guess nothing will change until then
Best Picture
Bombshell
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Director
Martin Scorsese “The Irishman”
Taika Waititi “Jojo Rabbit”
Noah Baumbach “Marriage Story”
Sam Mendes “1917”
Bong Joon-ho “Parasite”
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas “Pain and Glory”
Leonardo di Caprio “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver “Marriage Story”
Robert de Niro “The Irishman”
Joaquin Phoenix “Joker”
Best Actress
Akwafina “The Farewell”
Scarlett Johansson “Marriage Story”
Saoirse Ronan “Little Women”
Charlize Theron “Bombshell”
Renee Zelwegger “Judy”
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe “The Lighthouse”
Tom Hanks “A Beautiful day in the Neighbourhood”
Anthony Hopkins “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt “Once Upon a Time in a Hollywood”
Best Supporting Actress
Annette Bening “The Report”
Laura Dern “Marriage Story”
Jennifer Lopez “Hustlers”
Florence Pugh “Little Women”
Margot Robbie “Bombshell”
My first super early predictions
Re: My first super early predictions
Precious Doll wrote:Are people cooling off The Farewell? Why?
Whilst I personally don't like the film it got across the board great reviews and has done pretty good business in the U.S. for a film largely spoken in a foreign language.
I enjoyed The Farewell but, I think I enjoyed it more because it was a decently well-made movie that arrived when there hadn't been anything else out of quality for MONTHS. I definitely think the buzz has cooled, but I still see it getting a screenplay nomination. The Hollywood Reporter has Awkwafina as a frontrunner for a Lead Actress nomination which seems... generous. Weak year for Lead Actress?
Re: My first super early predictions
Oh, I wouldn’t know. I haven’t seen it yet. It might sneak in. It just looks like something that seems like a sure bet in summer but gets lost a bit in the fall. But if a few films fail to make an impact (like Ford v Ferrari, The Two Popes, 1917, or Little Women), it will definitely be in the mix.Precious Doll wrote
Are people cooling off The Farewell? Why?
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Re: My first super early predictions
Are people cooling off The Farewell? Why?
Whilst I personally don't like the film it got across the board great reviews and has done pretty good business in the U.S. for a film largely spoken in a foreign language.
It is interesting to note that the few international markets that it has played in it has underperformed in comparison to its US box office. It was promoted like anything for months were I live, opened wide and sank like a stone, unlike Parasite that got zero publicity, opened in just a handful of cinema and made more money than The Farewell - I suppose they are both examples positive/negative word of mouth.
Whilst I personally don't like the film it got across the board great reviews and has done pretty good business in the U.S. for a film largely spoken in a foreign language.
It is interesting to note that the few international markets that it has played in it has underperformed in comparison to its US box office. It was promoted like anything for months were I live, opened wide and sank like a stone, unlike Parasite that got zero publicity, opened in just a handful of cinema and made more money than The Farewell - I suppose they are both examples positive/negative word of mouth.
"I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?" Peggy Gravel (Mink Stole) in John Waters' Desperate Living (1977)
Re: My first super early predictions
In a few weeks, I particulate in that "draft" competition I did with some friends last year so I've been doing a little bit of research.
BEST PICTURE
1917
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
THOUGHTS: a mix of question marks, seen and unseen. No idea if The Academy is going to go for Joker but it's going to be high on some ballots. The more I think about it, the more I wonder if the Academy is really going to go for an anti-media film like Richard Jewell these days. Less certain about Ford v. Ferrari, Joker, and 1917 and Little Women (obviously bc they're unseen).
BEST DIRECTOR
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Taika Watiki, Jojo Rabbit
THOUGHTS: I'm just very dubious about QT's movie's widespread Academy appeal.
BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
THOUGHTS: Leo looks like the weak link to me. I suppose its between him and De Niro or Daniel Kaluuya in Queen & Slim.
NOTE: now that Bale and Damon have been pushed to lead, I am removing Leonardo DiCaprio and replacing him with Christian Bale who is fast approaching "He will get nominated for anything" status.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Ervio, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
THOUGHTS: this lineup makes sense to me.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem DaFoe, The Lighthouse
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
THOUGHTS: an all-movie star Best Supporting Actor lineup.
NOTE: now that Damon and Bale have been moved to lead, there is a spot open in my estimation. It could go to Joe Pesci or Tracy Letts (who I think is due for a first nomination) but Willem DaFoe has picked up some fans over the years. His nomination for At Eternity's Gate last year was a big surprise. I think they really like him and The Lighthouse is a pretty huge showcase.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
THOUGHTS: Lopez might seem like a flukey nominee but I think Hustlers has picked up enough steam to be taken seriously as a 11-15 contender. It might very well end up with a SAG Ensemble nomination.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
BEST PICTURE
1917
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
THOUGHTS: a mix of question marks, seen and unseen. No idea if The Academy is going to go for Joker but it's going to be high on some ballots. The more I think about it, the more I wonder if the Academy is really going to go for an anti-media film like Richard Jewell these days. Less certain about Ford v. Ferrari, Joker, and 1917 and Little Women (obviously bc they're unseen).
BEST DIRECTOR
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Taika Watiki, Jojo Rabbit
THOUGHTS: I'm just very dubious about QT's movie's widespread Academy appeal.
BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
THOUGHTS: Leo looks like the weak link to me. I suppose its between him and De Niro or Daniel Kaluuya in Queen & Slim.
NOTE: now that Bale and Damon have been pushed to lead, I am removing Leonardo DiCaprio and replacing him with Christian Bale who is fast approaching "He will get nominated for anything" status.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Ervio, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
THOUGHTS: this lineup makes sense to me.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem DaFoe, The Lighthouse
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
THOUGHTS: an all-movie star Best Supporting Actor lineup.
NOTE: now that Damon and Bale have been moved to lead, there is a spot open in my estimation. It could go to Joe Pesci or Tracy Letts (who I think is due for a first nomination) but Willem DaFoe has picked up some fans over the years. His nomination for At Eternity's Gate last year was a big surprise. I think they really like him and The Lighthouse is a pretty huge showcase.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
THOUGHTS: Lopez might seem like a flukey nominee but I think Hustlers has picked up enough steam to be taken seriously as a 11-15 contender. It might very well end up with a SAG Ensemble nomination.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Last edited by Sabin on Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:47 pm, edited 3 times in total.
"How's the despair?"
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Re: My first super early predictions
Nominees ranked in order of likelihood in each category. Most follow the conventional wisdom of other early predictions, but I threw in a few "out there" nominees to keep things interesting.
BEST PICTURE
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
1917
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Parasite
Joker
Knives Out
DIRECTING
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
Parasite
Pain And Glory
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Knives Out
Pain And Glory
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Joker
LEAD ACTRESS
Renee Zellweger - Judy
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Alfre Woodard - Clemency
LEAD ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
Antonio Banderas - Pain And Glory
Adam Driver - Marriage Story
Robert DeNiro - The Irishman
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Nicole Kidman - Bombshell
Margot Robbie - Bombshell
Meryl Streep - Little Women
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino - The Irishman
Brad Pitt - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Sterling Brown - Waves
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
FILM EDITING
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford v. Ferrari
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
The Goldfinch
Little Women
A Hidden Life
Parasite
ART DIRECTION
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Little Women
Ad Astra
The Irishman
Knives Out
COSTUME DESIGN
Little Women
Judy
Portrait Of A Lady On Fire
The Aeronauts
Rocketman
ORIGINAL SCORE
Little Women
1917
The Rise Of Skywalker
Ford v. Ferrari
Jojo Rabbit
SOUND MIXING
The Rise Of Skywalker
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
Rocketman
Jojo Rabbit
SOUND EDITING
The Rise Of Skywalker
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
The Lion King
Avengers: Endgame
VISUAL EFFECTS
The Rise Of Skywalker
Avengers: Endgame
The Lion King
Ad Astra
Captain Marvel
MAKEUP
Loro
The Rise Of Skywalker
Hellboy
BEST PICTURE
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
1917
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Parasite
Joker
Knives Out
DIRECTING
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
Parasite
Pain And Glory
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Knives Out
Pain And Glory
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Little Women
Jojo Rabbit
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Joker
LEAD ACTRESS
Renee Zellweger - Judy
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Alfre Woodard - Clemency
LEAD ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
Antonio Banderas - Pain And Glory
Adam Driver - Marriage Story
Robert DeNiro - The Irishman
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Nicole Kidman - Bombshell
Margot Robbie - Bombshell
Meryl Streep - Little Women
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino - The Irishman
Brad Pitt - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
Sterling Brown - Waves
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
FILM EDITING
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Ford v. Ferrari
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
The Goldfinch
Little Women
A Hidden Life
Parasite
ART DIRECTION
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Little Women
Ad Astra
The Irishman
Knives Out
COSTUME DESIGN
Little Women
Judy
Portrait Of A Lady On Fire
The Aeronauts
Rocketman
ORIGINAL SCORE
Little Women
1917
The Rise Of Skywalker
Ford v. Ferrari
Jojo Rabbit
SOUND MIXING
The Rise Of Skywalker
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
Rocketman
Jojo Rabbit
SOUND EDITING
The Rise Of Skywalker
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
The Lion King
Avengers: Endgame
VISUAL EFFECTS
The Rise Of Skywalker
Avengers: Endgame
The Lion King
Ad Astra
Captain Marvel
MAKEUP
Loro
The Rise Of Skywalker
Hellboy
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
Re: My first super early predictions
BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
The Farewell
*The Irishman
Joker
JoJo Rabbit
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
1917
Parasite
Waves
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Pedro Almodóvar, Pain & Glory
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Todd Phillips, Joker
*Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
The 6th Spot
Taika Waititi, JoJo Rabbit
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
*Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
The 6th Spot
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
&/or
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
*Renée Zellweger, Judy
The 6th Spot
Awkwafina, The Farewell
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
*Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
The 6th Spot
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
&/or
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
&/or
Christian Bale, Ford and Ferrari
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
*Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Meryl Streep, Little Women
The 6th Spot
Thomasin McKenzie, JoJo Rabbit
The Farewell
*The Irishman
Joker
JoJo Rabbit
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
1917
Parasite
Waves
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Pedro Almodóvar, Pain & Glory
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Todd Phillips, Joker
*Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
The 6th Spot
Taika Waititi, JoJo Rabbit
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
*Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
The 6th Spot
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
&/or
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
*Renée Zellweger, Judy
The 6th Spot
Awkwafina, The Farewell
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
*Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
The 6th Spot
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
&/or
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
&/or
Christian Bale, Ford and Ferrari
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
*Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Meryl Streep, Little Women
The 6th Spot
Thomasin McKenzie, JoJo Rabbit
Last edited by Reza on Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:34 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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My first super early predictions
Let's see how right (or more likely wrong) I am come year's end.
BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Ad Astra
The Farewell
The Goldfinch
Harriet
The Irishman
JoJo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
Parasite
The Report
Rocketman
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
James Grey, Ad Astra
John Crowley, The Goldfinch
Kasi Lemmons, Harriet
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Antonion Banderas, Pain & Glory
Adam Driver, The Report
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Brad Pitt, Ad Astra
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Lupita Nyong'o, Us
Meryl Streep, The Laundromat
Renee Zellweger, Judy
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Oakes Fegley, The Goldfinch
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
Taika Waititi, JoJo Rabbit
Jeffrey Wright, The Goldfinch
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Annette Bening, The Report
Jamie Lee Curtis, Knives Out
Nicole Kidman, The Goldfinch
Janelle Monae, Harriet
Anna Paquin, The Irishman
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
James Grey and Ethan Gross, Ad Astra
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Kasi Lemmons and Gregory Allan Howard, Harriet
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Peter Straughan, The Goldfinch
Steven Zaillian, The Irishman
Taika Waititi, JoJo Rabbit
Todd Philips and Scott Silver, Joker
Scott Z. Burns, The Laundromat
BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Ad Astra
The Farewell
The Goldfinch
Harriet
The Irishman
JoJo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
Parasite
The Report
Rocketman
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
James Grey, Ad Astra
John Crowley, The Goldfinch
Kasi Lemmons, Harriet
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Antonion Banderas, Pain & Glory
Adam Driver, The Report
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Brad Pitt, Ad Astra
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Lupita Nyong'o, Us
Meryl Streep, The Laundromat
Renee Zellweger, Judy
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Oakes Fegley, The Goldfinch
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
Taika Waititi, JoJo Rabbit
Jeffrey Wright, The Goldfinch
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Annette Bening, The Report
Jamie Lee Curtis, Knives Out
Nicole Kidman, The Goldfinch
Janelle Monae, Harriet
Anna Paquin, The Irishman
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
James Grey and Ethan Gross, Ad Astra
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Kasi Lemmons and Gregory Allan Howard, Harriet
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Peter Straughan, The Goldfinch
Steven Zaillian, The Irishman
Taika Waititi, JoJo Rabbit
Todd Philips and Scott Silver, Joker
Scott Z. Burns, The Laundromat