A great read (as usual) Mister Tee.
Its hard to imagine BlacKkKlansman not taking this award but with ASiB underperforming awards wise and the other films underperforming with the public and in relation to their respective nominations Lee's film does feel pretty locked in for the win.
Having said that, I must admit that I would vote for If Beale Street Could Talk. Its more literate and not less complex than Lee's film but it is a very hard choice between the two. This lineup, with the exception of ASiB, most be one of the best of this years nominees.
Categories One-by-One: Adapted Screenplay
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Adapted Screenplay
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Mister Tee
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Categories One-by-One: Adapted Screenplay
So...maybe we need to give this one a bit more attention than we thought.
The nominees:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel & Ethan Coen)
BlackkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener & Jeff Whitty)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
A Star is Born (Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters)
The basics of the category haven't changed.
The Coens are strictly in "happy to be here" mode.
A Star is Born might have pulled this off had it been the juggernaut people imagined, but even then it wouldn't have had an easy time, being a less-than-exemplary feat of screenwriting.
Can You Ever Forgive Me? and If Beale Street Could Talk, thanks to primo literary sources, register as the class of the field. But neither could find a truly wide audience or, in the end, crack a decidedly weak best picture slate, suggesting their nominations were their reward. Or so we thought, until last night.
BlackkKlansman has seemed all season like the Mama Bear of the race -- serious but also fun, well-reviewed but also a box-office success -- and the lack of a dominant front-runner appeared to open the way for Spike Lee to finally win an Oscar with ease. The film's win at BAFTA seemed to confirm that scenario. Then, last night happened.
I'm not turning tail -- giving up based on one random award. But, I have to say, last night's result made me look back on the entire season and wonder if I missed important clues. Because, first, the Broadcasters -- despite their naked desire to call the race in January -- went with Beale Street rather than Klansman. Then the film wasn't even nominated for the Scripter. Finally, last night's result. Individually, none of these are dispositive; collectively, they suggest a resistance (or maybe just indifference) to the film.
Similarly, we all noted how the film had widespread support/nominations across the Guilds. But now, it's officially cashed in on none of those. It's effectively done the same as A Star is Born -- but, while people have been mocking the latter film for its collapse, most are still aboard the Spike Inevitability train.
Someone at another site suggested that the Writers Guild has been averse to awarding scripts-by-committee, so the fact of four credited writers may have worked against the film (the team of three on Green Book could have done similar damage to it). Plus, we can't overlook the BAFTA win -- BAFTA's screenplay wins may not have a super-high correlation with AMPAS choices, but they count. And let's not overlook the fact that Klansman has a very strong overall Academy showing: six nominations, including the big four of film/director/screenplay/editing. That's an edge that didn't disappear last night.
I noted in the cinematography thread that I only rate two categories (song and animated feature) as 100% locks this year. Till last night, I'd have put Klansman in the 99% slot -- super-likely, but with a little wiggle room. Now, I'm thinking I'd downgrade a bit further. I'll still likely pick it, because of the opposition's flaws...but I won't feel fully confident till the winner's name is read out.
The nominees:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel & Ethan Coen)
BlackkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener & Jeff Whitty)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
A Star is Born (Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters)
The basics of the category haven't changed.
The Coens are strictly in "happy to be here" mode.
A Star is Born might have pulled this off had it been the juggernaut people imagined, but even then it wouldn't have had an easy time, being a less-than-exemplary feat of screenwriting.
Can You Ever Forgive Me? and If Beale Street Could Talk, thanks to primo literary sources, register as the class of the field. But neither could find a truly wide audience or, in the end, crack a decidedly weak best picture slate, suggesting their nominations were their reward. Or so we thought, until last night.
BlackkKlansman has seemed all season like the Mama Bear of the race -- serious but also fun, well-reviewed but also a box-office success -- and the lack of a dominant front-runner appeared to open the way for Spike Lee to finally win an Oscar with ease. The film's win at BAFTA seemed to confirm that scenario. Then, last night happened.
I'm not turning tail -- giving up based on one random award. But, I have to say, last night's result made me look back on the entire season and wonder if I missed important clues. Because, first, the Broadcasters -- despite their naked desire to call the race in January -- went with Beale Street rather than Klansman. Then the film wasn't even nominated for the Scripter. Finally, last night's result. Individually, none of these are dispositive; collectively, they suggest a resistance (or maybe just indifference) to the film.
Similarly, we all noted how the film had widespread support/nominations across the Guilds. But now, it's officially cashed in on none of those. It's effectively done the same as A Star is Born -- but, while people have been mocking the latter film for its collapse, most are still aboard the Spike Inevitability train.
Someone at another site suggested that the Writers Guild has been averse to awarding scripts-by-committee, so the fact of four credited writers may have worked against the film (the team of three on Green Book could have done similar damage to it). Plus, we can't overlook the BAFTA win -- BAFTA's screenplay wins may not have a super-high correlation with AMPAS choices, but they count. And let's not overlook the fact that Klansman has a very strong overall Academy showing: six nominations, including the big four of film/director/screenplay/editing. That's an edge that didn't disappear last night.
I noted in the cinematography thread that I only rate two categories (song and animated feature) as 100% locks this year. Till last night, I'd have put Klansman in the 99% slot -- super-likely, but with a little wiggle room. Now, I'm thinking I'd downgrade a bit further. I'll still likely pick it, because of the opposition's flaws...but I won't feel fully confident till the winner's name is read out.