dws1982 wrote:Only two times have these categories split between two films nominated in both categories: Slumdog Millionaire and The Dark Knight in 2008, and Hacksaw Ridge and Arrival in 2016. That doesn't mean that voters consciously think about these things, but I think it does mean that in many years voters see these awards as a package deal ... I think a lot of voters bunch these two awards together, unless there's a really compelling reason not to do so.
I think this has definitely become the case since Sound Effects Editing was expanded to five, as it indicated the branch viewed the two as practically identical -- previously there had been a lot more variance at the margins, enough that people saw Sound Mixing as a more mainstream category (one that could include musicals and best picture contenders), while Effects Editing was strictly for the tech whizzes. When the categories started matching 4- or 5-for-5, the distinction got mostly lost.
dws1982 wrote:
In 2016 ... No one was quite sure what would happen in Sound Editing, but most predictions I saw were pretty evenly split between Hacksaw Ridge and eventual winner Arrival. Hacksaw Ridge winning Sound Mixing was the surprise, putting Kevin O'Connell out of his misery, and serving as an omen for La La Land's eventual fate that evening.
When Arrival won Editing, I was confident Hacksaw Ridge was going 0-for-the night. I agree with your thesis, that it was the fact more than two films were involved (La La/Arrival/Hacksaw) that made a more random result possible. It's why I so hate the blogger tendency to narrow categories down; it reduces the chances of a real surprise.
dws1982 wrote:Now, 2008: The Dark Knight wins Editing, while Slumdog Millionaire wins Mixing. Slumdog Millionaire is an odd case, and I doubt it would've been nominated in Editing in a year before the category expanded.
Slumdog is the only recent case of a movie winning the Sound Mixing category simply because it was the best picture favorite or runner-up. Such a thing used to happen with moderate frequency -- In the Heat of the Night, All the President's Men, Out of Africa, The Last Emperor, The English Patient -- but, in recent years, a film has generally needed music or techie cred to compete. It may be that the Effects nomination gave Slumdog a push -- or simply that it was the closest to a landslide winner as we've had in the past decade-plus.
dws1982 wrote:Sometimes you've had movies that, for whatever reason, won Sound Mixing but just weren't nominated for Sound Editing: ... Lord of the Rings: Return of the King ... probably would've been nominated in a Sound Editing field of five, and ...probably would've won both Sound awards if ... nominated. During those years, the Sound Editing branch was almost as absurd as the Makeup branch tends to be, boxing out plenty of acclaimed and popular movies that easily could've won the final vote.
I'd argue that this capriciousness of the Sound Editing group, single-handed, kept Return of the King from holding undisputed first place on the all-time Oscar win list.
dws1982 wrote:
And of course, you have your fluke years, where a movie slips through a muddled field and wins the Sound Mixing award: The Last of the Mohicans and Bird. Bird is a bit of an exception, maybe--it had won a technical prize at Cannes, and was pretty widely-acclaimed in the way it remixed and integrated Charlie Parker's recordings into the soundtrack. The Last of the Mohicans was a stranger case--that was a lineup where really Unforgiven is the only other nominee makes sense as a winner.
That rationale for Bird's win was widely circulated after the fact, but I don't know if anyone can appreciate what a stunner the choice was in real time. The Mixing prize (then known as Achievement in Sound) had for decades been going to prominently-in-the-race films: best picture mainstays, lots of musicals, war films...and occasionally widespread-tech contenders, like Earthquake or Grand Prix. What they never (in my experience) did was choose a film for which this was a sole nomination. (Even off-beat 50s selections like South Pacific, The Great Caruso or Breaking the Sound Barrier had at least one or two additional nods.) The last time (previous to Bird) voters had made such a choice was in 1943, when they went for an (unknown to me) Renoir film called This Land is Mine -- and that was in the era of "every studio gets a nomination", so who knows how votes broke down in a double-digit field. This was a truly oddball choice: Die Hard or Who Framed Roger Rabbit? made much more sense as predictions.
Then they did the same thing four years later with The Last of the Mohicans. I remember, as they were reading the nominees that night, that Mohicans seemed the best choice to me, and too bad it had no chance. I have no explanation for its win, except, as you say, nothing on the whole slate jumped out as win material
FINALLY...to the category this year:
In Mixing, I do agree Roma is more likely a branch enthusiasm than an Academy-wide one. I think music could give the upper hand to either Bohemian or A Star is Born...and, startlingly (given where the season started), Bohemian seems to be the stronger candidate. But it's not impossible voters could go for a heavy-tech choice, and I think dws is correct that Black Panther, as both a bigger hit and best picture contender, should outweigh First Man -- though there is the fact that so many space movies have won this prize, from The Right Stuff through Gravity. I guess what I'm saying, overall, is I have no idea, and think anything but Roma could win.
In Editing, I think Roma is an even less likely contender, and I'd rule out Bohemian Rhapsody as well, since music has no history in the category. But the other three seem all solidly in the race, and I'm with Oscar Guy in thinking you don't want to go to sleep on A Quiet Place. This is a movie that's ABOUT sound: practically its entire concept relies on effects. That the branch didn't nominate it for Mixing is on them, not on the Academy overall -- given the chance to vote for an unexpected hit that got good reviews, a lot of folks might go its way. I think this is very much a three-way race.