Agree with you on Mary Poppins Returns and Roma, but I think older voters will consider the authenticity of First Man a factor despite the film's box-office failure. It's actually a best-seller on home video out of the gate. It's apt to have a longer shelf life than several, if not most, of the Best Picture nominees.
That said, it probably is a race between the traditional look of The Favourite and the imaginative look of Black Panther, but I'm going to go out on a limb and predict my personal choice here, which is First Man. Not only does it get all the space stuff right, it gets the look and feel of the lived-in house right. I think it just might resonate more than the fancy stuff, especially with the Academy's older voters.
Categories One-by-One: Production Design
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Categories One-by-One: Production Design
The nominees:
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
I think we can safely eliminate Mary Poppins Returns. It's a little too been-there-done-that. First Man is a handsomely made film with fine production design but it's still seen as a failure of sorts so I guess we can safely eliminate that. Roma could win if the Academy goes wild for it and it becomes a sweeper. Otherwise, it's too subtle to win.
I think the Oscar will come down to The Favourite or Black Panther. The former is a more traditional Oscar choice of period castles and ballrooms. The latter has showy sci-fi Afrofuturism inspired sets. Both could easily win. But for now, I'm thinking Black Panther by a hair. The win would be historical as well since Hannah Beachler would be the first ever African-American winner of this category.
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
I think we can safely eliminate Mary Poppins Returns. It's a little too been-there-done-that. First Man is a handsomely made film with fine production design but it's still seen as a failure of sorts so I guess we can safely eliminate that. Roma could win if the Academy goes wild for it and it becomes a sweeper. Otherwise, it's too subtle to win.
I think the Oscar will come down to The Favourite or Black Panther. The former is a more traditional Oscar choice of period castles and ballrooms. The latter has showy sci-fi Afrofuturism inspired sets. Both could easily win. But for now, I'm thinking Black Panther by a hair. The win would be historical as well since Hannah Beachler would be the first ever African-American winner of this category.