SAG Predictions

[Precious Doll]

See where BAFTA goes. Malek isn't a frontrunner.

How come the winner of both SAG and Golden Globe is not the frontrunner?

Who is the last actor to win both awards and failed at the Oscars? I think it was Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind and the scenario was completely different.

I do believe is reasonably fair to consider Malek the one to beat at this point.

I think Malek will win the BAFTA easily. Freddie Mercury vs. Dick Cheney.

[Mister Tee]

I'd thought getting past the Broadcasters with the acting races still blurry meant we had a good shot at a competitive year, but the urge to create a tide still seems strong, and SAG did about as much as they could to drain suspense.

In the Ensemble category, they could have put some life into either A Star is Born or BlackkKlansman. Bypassing both in favor of Black Panther amounted to taking a pass on the best picture race.

If Cooper wasn't going to win, picking either Bale or Malek would have leaned the Oscar race in their direction, so you can't exactly blame them for ruining that contest. Malek is I'd say a soft favorite, with BAFTA holding the reins: a Malek repeat would make him close to unstopppable, but a Bale victory would give us something near a toss-up.

Close was the one winner tonight not advantaged by a high-grossing film. I wish I could, like BJ, manage to be happy for Close, when I've admired her for so long. But performance counts for something, and I find her performance so undistinguished that her run just underlines for me the power of the Internet crowd to set the Oscar agenda almost independent of the actual achievement under consideration. As I said in my prediction, it's possible Colman will win on her home court at BAFTA, but that would still leave Close the heavy favorite. Or BAFTA may just decide, Fuck it, and jump on the bandwagon.

The same could be said about Ali. He's potentially vulnerable at BAFTA to local boy Grant. But Green Book is a best picture nominee there -- while Can You Ever Forgive Me? is not -- so maybe they'll just make it another incomprehensible sweep. Because that's what we do nowadays: get in line.

The one crazy-ass move -- picking Blunt -- was actually in line with the rest: favoring a box-office smash and doing everything possible to help create a front-runner. In this case, the front-runner, King, was not available for a vote, but her next best case was for whoever won in her place to have no hope at the Oscars. Not being a nominee is the surest way to ensure that. Now, as noted in my predictions, and as Sabin registers below, almost this exact same thing happened in 2015, with non-nominee Elba winning SAG, and the lucky break we thought it was for Stallone didn't play out as expected. So, let's wait and see what BAFTA does. But I'd guess Regina King was the big winner tonight.

The big loser? Anyone like me, who wanted a fun race. Chances are dwindling.

[HarryGoldfarb]

See where BAFTA goes. Malek isn't a frontrunner.

How come the winner of both SAG and Golden Globe is not the frontrunner?

Who is the last actor to win both awards and failed at the Oscars? I think it was Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind and the scenario was completely different.

I do believe is reasonably fair to consider Malek the one to beat at this point.

[Big Magilla]

The only one I didn't see coming was Emily Blunt.

[Okri]

Went 1 for 5. Would do it again.

[OscarGuy]

See where BAFTA goes. Malek isn't a frontrunner.

Went 6-for-6 in my predictions (as did FilmFam720).

[dws1982]

Rami Malek is going to win the Oscar for kind of looking like Freddie Mercury, isn't he?

[The Original BJ]

Great night for category fraud!

Pretty lackluster set of winners. And way to take the air out of the balloon on most of these Oscar races.

I will say this -- I am happy Glenn Close will finally win an Oscar.

[Sabin]

Well, we're all wrong.

Emily Blunt's win and Regina King's lack of a nomination mirrors 2015's Best Supporting Actor race so much.

[MaxWilder]

Bohemian Rhapsody seems least likely to me -- how can you even argue it as an ensemble, when Malek so dominates?

We all know about category fraud. This is a new thing: category abuse. Will SAG have to create its own best picture category so that voters don't use best ensemble as a proxy?

[flipp525]

One of my best friend’s SAG ballot:

BlacKkKlansmen
Glenn Close
Rami Malek
Mahershala Ali
Emma Stone

Amy Adams (Sharp Objects)
Darren Criss

[anonymous1980]

ENSEMBLE: Black Panther
ACTOR: Rami Malek
ACTRESS: Glenn Close
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Sam Elliott
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Adams
STUNT ENSEMBLE: Black Panther

[Okri]

BlacKKKlansman for ensemble
Bradley Cooper for Actor
Glenn Close for Actress
Sam Eliot for Supporting Actor
Amy Adams for Supporting Actress

[Mister Tee]

As always, my rooting interest is for SAG to help muddy the Oscar outcome -- i.e., the opposite of what they did last year,

Best Ensemble Cast: How nice we're almost guaranteed a curve ball here, since the Oscar nomination leaders (Roma and The Favourite) as well as the PGA winner are missing. It's too soon to know if SAG correlation to the Oscars has been weakened by the AFTRA merger -- we'll need a few more years of Hidden Figures-like outcomes to make that case -- but, if Crazy Rich Asians wins, it'll point us that direction. Any of the other four nominees could win, but Bohemian Rhapsody seems least likely to me -- how can you even argue it as an ensemble, when Malek so dominates? Black Panther has a top-heavy cast and is of course the most widely-seen, but its distance from Oscar best picture contention is an offsetting handicap. This seems like a spot where A Star is Born could regain the front-runner crown it once seemed to possess -- well-reviewed, big hit, actor-centered. But then again, maybe BackkKlansman pulls off a slow-and-steady-wins-the-race scenario. This one will be in the air right up to the last moment.

Prediction: A Star is Born
alt.: Black Panther

Best Actor: Since I'm rooting as always for chaos, my easy choice is Bradley Cooper. And, again, I think this could be his strongest venue. Malek or Bale are equally likely, with Mortensen a long-shot, and Washington pretty much along for the ride.

Prediction: Bradley Cooper
alt.: Christian Bale

Best Actress: Glenn Close will of course have decades of sentiment behind her, but not all that much support for her actual film/performance. Lady Gaga and Olivia Colman well surpass her in those categories, and the fact that so few people saw The Wife could come into play with such a big voting pool. I wish Melissa McCarthy was given more attention, but I don't see it, and Emily Blunt is a non-factor. I'm viewing this category in tandem with BAFTA, and here's how I'd handicap: If Close wins both SAG and BAFTA, she's winning the Oscar hands down. If she wins SAG but loses BAFTA to Colman, Close will be favored but it will still be a race. If Colman wins both (unlikely), she becomes the Oscar leader. And if Gaga wins SAG and Colman wins BAFTA, it's a wide-open contest. (In that sense, BAFTA might matter more this year, since the Colman scenario depends on her winning there.)

Prediction: Lady Gaga
alt.: Glenn Close

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali has everything going for him except the same thing that hobbles him with AMPAS: the fact he won this award just two years ago. He's likely to overcome that resistance, but, if he doesn't, much as I'd like to think Richard E. Grant would be the alternative, it's more likely Sam Elliott could reap the rewards of a long career and a prominent role in a big movie. (Grant's hopes are, like Colman's, wholly dependent on BAFTA.)

Prediction: Mahershala Ali
alt.: Sam Elliott

Best Supporting Actress: The second category in which a curve ball is assured, thanks to the King omission. I'd remind BJ that thinking Regina vs. not-Regina is favorable to King is precisely the thinking that led many to view Stallone as unbeatable three years ago. But I do endorse his feeling that SAG voters may not view The Favourite ladies as fatally been there/done that; Weisz, in particular, seems to have a shot, given her win is far enough in the past to be ancient history to some. And I think Weisz has an excellent chance of winning BAFTA, which would make her a formidable obstacle to King (who, let's remember, was left out by the two Guilds with Oscar overlap, and is also the only Oscar nominee in her category not associated with a best picture contender). The real question here is, does affection for Amy Adams and her long, unrewarded career, overcome the hostility some have toward her film? I still can't take Emily Blunt seriously, but you have to acknowledge her film is by a mile the highest-grossing of this bunch, if that still matters to such a large voting pool.

Wobbly Prediction: Amy Adams
alt.: Rachel Weisz

Best Stunt Ensemble: Well, we'll find out once and for all if this was truly meant to honor stunt people, or if it was just a way to give out Best Popular Movie. The actors in Black Panther basically stood in front of green screens; Mission Impossible Fallout was stunts galore. I honestly don't care about this prize (and neither does SAG, since they present it off-air). But I expect there'll be default to the super-grosser Black Panther.

[Big Magilla]

I've often been underwhelmed by the SAG Awards, but I always hope for the best, so either way I don't expect to be too disappointed.

The cut-off for on-line voting was after the Oscar nominations were announced, but I have no idea how many members waited until the last minute to cast their vote or if the announcement had any effect on their vote anyway.

Best Actor - Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
He wins on sheer popularity on his third nomination, his previous two being for TV's Mr. Robot. His sudden rise to fame in both mediums after years of relative obscurity is certainly in the wheelhouse of most SAG members who dream of such success for themselves.

No one else stands a chance unless they want to give another award for makeup - but do they really want to go from Winston Churchill to Dick Cheney in one year? This is Christian Bale's fourth solo nomination from this group which hasn't awarded him yet except in ensemble for American Hustle, so could be.

Best Actress - Glenn Close, The Wife
There's no best song category here, so there's no chance of giving Lady Gaga a different award to see her on stage, but Close's narrative is so irresistible I can't see her losing for playing a character who loses an award she ought to have won to someone else, something that has been her lot in real life with the Oscars and truth be told for some of her SAG TV nominations, although she did win one for The Lion in Winter years ago.

Best Supporting Actor - Mahershala Ali, Green Book
He won two just two years ago, one for Moonlight, the other as part of the ensemble of Hidden Figures, but he's even more popular now with TV's True Detective adding to his bona fides. I'd be shocked if he loses.

Best Supporting Actress - Amy Adams, Vice
Everyone loves Amy Adams and why shouldn't they? This is her fifth solo nomination for her film work so she is almost as overdue here as with Oscar, although like Christian Bale she has an ensemble award for American Hustle. But, she also has a TV nod this year for Sharp Objects. Can she win both? Of course she can, but will she, and will she win without Bale also winning in his category? We shall see.

Best Cast - Black Panther
I'm not seeing very much competition here.

Best Stunt Ensemble - Black Panther
This is a tougher call, but I think Black Panther will prevail over Mission: Impossible - Fallout, its only strong competition, making it the first film to win for both acting and stunt ensemble.