PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

For the films of 2018
Sabin
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Post by Sabin »

Precious Doll wrote
Sabin,

When is your deadline?
18th.
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FilmFan720
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Post by FilmFan720 »

This sounds so cool...as an Oscar obsessionist who also plays a lot of fantasy sports, I'm jealous!

I think you are correct that you want films that will be in play across the board. It seems like there isn't an advantage, points wise, to winning Best Picture or winning Best Sound, so go for the films that you know will be in play. A Star Is Born may be the top point-getter, but adding together a few films that get wide-range nominations could also get you in there...in an auction, I would rather have a mixture of The Favourite, Black Panther, Green Book, Roma, and Widows. Those are films that are contending both above and below the line and could each rack up 10-12 points on nominations day and another 4-6 on Oscar night, not adding in the earlier prizes.

I wouldn't look over Can You Ever Forgive Me?, which seems like a solid contender in 3 major categories and could be the sort of film that just keeps popping up. Consistent points across the board, even if it isn't the big haul.

Also, like you always want a few closers in fantasy baseball, I would think about some of those films that might not be glamorous but could keep popping up in the smaller categories. With no big box office favorite in Animated Feature, some of those smaller animated films could pick up several critics prizes and pop up in nominations morning. I would pick up Isle of Dogs or Mirai for cheap points. Same with Best Song...find that film that could get a random Globe nomination there for a few late points.

Good luck!
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Precious Doll
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Post by Precious Doll »

Sabin,

When is your deadline?
"I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?" Peggy Gravel (Mink Stole) in John Waters' Desperate Living (1977)
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Re: PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Post by Big Magilla »

I have no idea how such a thing would work, but if you're going to do this before the nominations start coming out you'd better hurry - the Independent Spirits announce their nominations in five days on November 16th.

There are no front-runners in any of the categories. It's time for a feel-good movie to take Best Picture. I'd bet on The Green Book if I were going to bet. If this is truly Glenn Close's year then I would expect Best Actor to go to a long-time veteran without a win as well, say Willem Dafoe, but is it her year or is it Oliva Colman's? Lady Gaga for Best Song, not Best Actress, but who knows? Nobody knows anything.
Sabin
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PLEASE READ: My Fantasy Oscar League

Post by Sabin »

Hey guys!
A friend of mine is putting together a Fantasy Football-style league. I'm involved in it and I wanted to know your thoughts on how I should conduct my voting.

Basically, there are ten or so people involved in a draft. We think it's going to be auction style (or a snake, turn-based email... we're still figuring it out) where we bid on movies for how well they are going to show in terms of nominations and wins at the Oscars, but also almost all the major awards (including Baftas and Spirits, but not Critic's Choice), guilds, and critics groups. Every nomination is worth 1 point, every win is worth 2. No runners up at the critics awards. And with the Oscars, noms are 2, wins are 3.

There are 96 movies to choose from. Best Documentary Feature and Shorts are not categories we'll be playing for.

Does that make sense? I'd be happy to go into more specifics later.

I'm trying to devise a strategy for winning.

The obvious route is move heaven and earth to getting A Star is Born, right? But here are my concerns: 1) I'm just not sure it's going to win Best Picture, and 2) even if it does, is there a way to beat the person who has A Star is Born?

First question: can anything beat A Star is Born? I'm honestly unsure at this point. It does not look up the alley of the new Academy at all.

Second question: what is the best strategic hand that doesn't include A Star is Born? It occurs to me that a hand that includes The Favourite and Roma could conceivably win considering the huge BAFTA tally for The Favourite as well as the huge critic's tally for Roma. Or maybe Widows?

Third question: what are some good mid-tier choices that are worth investing in? Black Panther and Blackkklansman are two movies that I am puzzled by in that they could both pick up at least five or six nominations... or stiff completely. What are your thoughts?

Fourth question: what are some good low tier choices that are worth rolling the dice on? Something like Mary Poppins Returns isn't going to be thought of right now but it could conceivably have a very strong showing below the line. What about Bumblebee, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Mary, Queen Of Scots, A Quiet Place, or Ready Player One?

Fifth question: what do you think is going to across-the-board stiff?
"How's the despair?"
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