SAG Predictions

[The Original BJ]

My one SAG related thought is that, in absence of the frontrunner in Supporting Actress, Stone/Weisz might not be seen as the lame ducks many feel they are at the Oscars (where the fact that both have already won seems like a big hindrance to prevailing again). It's very possible that when this group of voters just picks the performance they like the best, it'll end up being one of The Favourite ladies (as opposed to Adams, whose Oscar candidacy seems in stronger shape just by virtue of being overdue).

It'll be interesting to see if SAG and BAFTA go different ways, in which case the Oscar race would end up being Regina vs. not-Regina (probably the scenario most favorable to King in the long run), or if they pick the same choice, and then we'll get Regina vs. A Clear Alternative (which could make it a real race, especially if that person is Amy Adams).

[Sabin]

Best Actor - Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Well, I'm wrong. This seems like a three-way race between Cooper, Malek, and I guess Bale. I've read a lot of predictions for Christian Bale out there. Recent allegations about Singer can't help Rhapsody's chances but voting was a while ago, during Rhapsody's high point.


Best Actress - Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
It's SAG-AFTRA. Maybe Glenn Close wins the Oscar but I think this race is going to be a mess.


Best Supporting Actor - Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Most sure about this.

Best Supporting Actress - Amy Adams, Vice
She's an ensemble winner but she's never won for one of her own performances. I don't think the SAG voters take this into consideration.

Best Ensemble - Black Panther
I could see all five of them winning.

Best Stunt Ensemble - Black Panther
Probably.