PGA Winner

For the films of 2018
Mister Tee
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Re: PGA Winner

Post by Mister Tee »

A couple of thoughts, after time to sleep on it:

This could be a one-off. The PGA is the oldest-white-guy-est of the guilds, and that demographic seems to like this movie the best.

I think people underestimate the appeal a simple, technically original but familiar narrative structure has in this year's miasma. A lot of the prime contenders -- Roma, The Favourite, Beale Street, BlackkKlansman, Vice -- required tonal and structural leaps from voters. A Star is Born is the only other top contender that's mostly traditional in form...but that one bears the mark of the multi-remake. It's not really shocking Green Book has emerged as the choice of the group most representing studio philosophy. (2010 was a far better year, but it, too, had multiple candidates that were more zeitgeisty -- esp. The Social Network, Black Swan, True Grit -- and the more traditional King's Speech ended up taking over the race.)

Speaking of 2010: I think we now have to enter this year's DGA with some trepidation. People have been assuming for some time that Cuaron has that one nailed down, but I recall people being equally sure about Fincher until the prize was shockingly awarded elsewhere. And something of the same applied in 2014: Birdman winning PGA was a stutter-step; Innaritu winning DGA over Linklater sealed the deal. It's hard to imagine the DGA going for something so cornball as Green Book, but there have been occasions when they have. (See: 2001, Ron Howard.) I've long expressed my doubts about Roma going all the way, and my instincts may bear out in the worst possible way.

At least, as I noted last night, we can be sure Green Book won't sweep the big three guilds, as happened in 2010 and 2014. Though one has to wonder: did Green Book fail at the SAG ensemble nod simply from not being widely enough seen?

The kids at Awards Watch are all "We took down La La Land and 3 Billboards; how could we fail here?" First of all, assuming their trashing campaigns are what killed those earlier efforts (in best picture terms) is attributing more power to them than is demonstrably merited. (A "post hoc, ergo propter hoc" fallacy.) But even if you grant their premise, I think the answer might be, any people who were leaning toward La La Land and 3 Billboards but were talked out of it are a very different sort from Green Book supporters. La La and Billboards, however you come down on their ultimate merits, are genuine art efforts by serious filmmakers, supported by critical approbation. People who appreciate such work are likely the sort to read analyses, follow heated pro and con discussions. They would be the sort who could maybe be argued into or out of loving a film based on such discussions. The audiences for Green Book, though, are more like those for Darkest Hour -- they don't care much about mediocre reviews; they want to see the film anyway, and, once they do, and like the simplicity of the film, they're not going to read something telling them they shouldn't have. And if someone tells them their liking the film is indicative or moral or political failing, they're likely to just get their backs up and vote for the film as a Fuck you. (Whereas I think some people might have been intimidated off the La La/Billboards train.)

All of which tells us, this year may end in pure horror, but for the moment, the race throughout remains very much alive.
Okri
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Re: PGA Winner

Post by Okri »

MaxWilder wrote:
OscarGuy wrote:The only point in the Academy's favor is its push to diversify its ranks. The PGA largely consists of the Old Boys Club, which might explain why the Feel Good Movie About Racism could triumph over films with much headier topics.
I'm going to tattoo this on me, Memento-style.

Yesterday: I resent the inevitability of a Roma win. What a boring Oscar season.
Today: I would do unspeakable things to see Roma win.
Heh. I didn't love Roma at all and am wildly puzzled by the enthusiasm for the film in some sectors, but at the same time it would be such an off-brand oscar winner that I would, at the same time, kinda respect it. I don't think I would ever be convinced that IT was the inevitable winner. I got stuck like that last year with The Shape of Water, though I grew to resent that film a little more.
Reza
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Re: PGA Winner

Post by Reza »

Big Magilla wrote:Hopefully it won't deter AMPAS from nominating it in various categories including Best Supporting Actress where Claire Foy has sadly been losing traction in prognosticators' predictions.
Which is such a pity because Foy is outstanding in First Man. I'm rooting for her to get a nod followed by a win as well.
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Re: PGA Winner

Post by Big Magilla »

I think the main reason Green Book is doing so well in awards season is the pushback against the pushback. The criticisms against the film have been so over the top that its supporters are basically saying "enough is enough". It may be simple, but it's not simplistic, nor is it insulting to its audience the way other supposedly feel good movies are: Asians with Crazy Rich Asians; The Book Club with old ladies.

I have been lukewarm in my enthusiasm for Roma and Black Panther and even less so for A Star Is Born, but I have neither seen nor heard anything to dissuade me from my enthusiasm for Green Book, BlackKklansman and First Man, all of which have had their detractors.

I need to see more of the year's non-Roma foreign language films and re-watch First Man before I come to any final conclusion about what I think were the year's best films, but right now I'm leaning toward Green Book for Best Picture and Spike Lee for Best Director for BlackKklansman.

Green Book may or may not be true to its source material, but BlackKklansman clearly isn't with its tacked on ending in which the undercover detective tells KKK leader David Duke over the phone that he has been pranked. In real life, Duke didn't find out for another quarter century. The movie really didn't need that, but it's not enough of a departure from the real situation to ruin the film.

The attacks against First Man, however, are totally without merit. Right-wingers objected to the lack of a scene showing the planting of the American flag being on the moon. Left-wingers objected to the lack of minority casting in a film that was about an organization that didn't have any minorities in prominent roles in it at the time, all of which hurt the film's box office. Less expensive independent films like Green Book can withstand disappointing box-office returns to prevail in awards season, but expensive studio films like First Man have a stigma attached to them that is almost impossible to surmount. Fortunately that hasn't deterred the guilds from including it in their nominations. Hopefully it won't deter AMPAS from nominating it in various categories including Best Supporting Actress where Claire Foy has sadly been losing traction in prognosticators' predictions.
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Re: PGA Winner

Post by MaxWilder »

OscarGuy wrote:The only point in the Academy's favor is its push to diversify its ranks. The PGA largely consists of the Old Boys Club, which might explain why the Feel Good Movie About Racism could triumph over films with much headier topics.
I'm going to tattoo this on me, Memento-style.

Yesterday: I resent the inevitability of a Roma win. What a boring Oscar season.
Today: I would do unspeakable things to see Roma win.
Reza
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Re: PGA Winner

Post by Reza »

OscarGuy wrote: It's almost as if we haven't progressed in thirty years or sixty years.
Yes unfortunately you haven't progressed.......as far as race relations are concerned. Which is probably why Hollywood feels the need to reward films like Green Book out of sheer guilt.
Last edited by Reza on Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Okri
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Re: PGA Winner

Post by Okri »

Man, this year is going to suck.

To Quoth Mark Harris: "Never underestimate the electoral power of white people who feel picked on, I guess."
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Re: PGA Winner

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The only point in the Academy's favor is its push to diversify its ranks. The PGA largely consists of the Old Boys Club, which might explain why the Feel Good Movie About Racism could triumph over films with much headier topics.

I will defend Driving Miss Daisy to the end because I thought it was a worthy film. I haven't seen Green Book yet, but I cannot say that it doesn't have the feeling of a Crash-type victory on hand. That supposed liberals like Sasha Stone are defending the writer against his anti-Muslim tweet simply because the film is "Art."

I kind of hope this can be something that voters rally around an alternative winner. But what? What other film can consolidate enough votes to overtake a film that white people think is progressive? It's almost as if we haven't progressed in thirty years or sixty years. However, after two years of the most awful people making the most awful decisions, politically and cinematically, I can't help but feel this dread that we're going to be hearing Green Book proclaimed winner. It is guaranteed have nominations in at least four of the five must-nominate categories with the other category (editing) could follow suit with enough love.

By this time Tuesday, we will know which other films will have that (likely Roma in four or five of the categories, BlacKkKlansman in at least three of the five, A Star Is Born in at least three of the five, and what else? Not likely much else.) The only outcome at this point that will speak to our times in a positive way would be a BlacKkKlansman win and that would be the best balm to this awful, shitshow of a historical period.
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Re: PGA Winner

Post by ITALIANO »

Mister Tee wrote:We've not seen a film's awards prospects collapse like A Star is Born's since -- what? -- Dreamgirls?

Well, there is a difference. Dreamgirls basically collapsed the moment it came out - the reviews were mixed at best, and only this board (collectively - I was the only one who tried to tell the truth) kept insisting it would win Best Picture till... well, till nominations day, actually.

Absurd as it may seem, A Star is Born (which isn't better than Dreamgirs) got GREAT reviews - and by the way this says alot about the state of film criticism today. Needless to say, many on this board tried to convince themselves that it HAD to be good, that the actors had to be good, etc. The reviews are still here - they aren't exactly persuasive, but they are definitely fun to read.

Now, I haven't seen Green Book. I might even hate it - I have no idea, really. But let me say that I'm relieved that, for the moment, such an over-praised thing as A Star is Born is getting what it deserves. Still not sure about the Oscars, but, I mean, if even the Golden Globes saw through it....
Sabin
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Re: PGA Winner

Post by Sabin »

Mister Tee wrote
Now, let's recall that Green Book wasn't nominated for SAG Ensemble. So we're guaranteed a different winner a week hence. And, between now and then, it's conceivable Green Book will fail to get a directing nomination. (As has happened to more than one PGA winner: Moulin Rouge, Little Miss Sunshine, and the grandparent of them all, Driving Miss Daisy.) This year continues crazy-crazy.
What's more, Green Book is highly unlikely to win the DGA Award this year. So, we're very likely heading into another year where the three major guilds honor three different films.

2015: DGA--The Revenant, SAG--Spotlight, PGA--The Big Short
2013 (sort of): DGA--Gravity, SAG--American Hustle, PGA--12 Years a Slave & Gravity
2004: DGA--Million Dollar Baby, SAG--Sideways, PGA--The Aviator
2001: DGA--A Beautiful Mind, SAG--Gosford Park, PGA--Moulin Rouge!
2000: DGA--Crouching Tiger..., SAG--Traffic, PGA--Gladiator

If we're feeling charitable, the PGA has claim to two wins (12 Years a Slave, Gladiator) in this scenario. The DGA has claim to two (Million Dollar Baby, A Beautiful Mind), and SAG has one (Spotlight).
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Re: PGA Winner

Post by The Original BJ »

One widely-held theory that took a big hit tonight is the one that Green Book might have more easily prevailed in a five-wide Oscar field (especially if its competitors included Roma, The Favourite, and BlacKkKlansman, all of which have a degree of hipness to them, thereby giving the retro crowd a more obvious place to rally), but that a ranked ballot of up-to-10 would create too much of a hurdle for such a divisive movie, given how likely the film was to be placed near the bottom of a substantial number of ballots. But PGA uses a ranked ballot too, so the movie has shown it can clearly prevail in that system.

At this point we just have to hope that the increasing diversity of the Academy can result in a happier outcome. The Academy that two years ago choose Moonlight can't possibly go for Green Book, can it? (Cue: "the country that elected Obama twice...")
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Re: PGA Winner

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Sabin wrote:Yesterday, I had a horrible realization about why Green Book could win: we haven't had a travesty this decade yet.

Think about it. Every decade, there's a universally reviled, talked about for ages travesty. Whether deserving or not. Last decade, it was Crash. In the 1990's it was Shakespeare in Love. It doesn't matter that it should be Dances with Wolves or Braveheart. It was Shakespeare in Love beating Saving Private Ryan. In the 1980's, it was Driving Miss Daisy.

What is our travesty this decade? The King's Speech? Too quaintly inoffensive. It's like a recession. We're due.
Yeah, even in the 70s, The Sting and Rocky qualified (on a sliding scale, of course).

Somebody on Awards Watch said, by being about two guys building a friendship plus retro race politics, Green Book is as if Driving Miss Daisy mated with The King's Speech. And there's a segment of the Academy for whom that's nirvana.
Mister Tee
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Re: PGA Winner

Post by Mister Tee »

I do have to say: this was a rare PGA where I had almost NO idea what was going to win. I could have made a case for half the films nominated.

Now, let's recall that Green Book wasn't nominated for SAG Ensemble. So we're guaranteed a different winner a week hence. And, between now and then, it's conceivable Green Book will fail to get a directing nomination. (As has happened to more than one PGA winner: Moulin Rouge, Little Miss Sunshine, and the grandparent of them all, Driving Miss Daisy.) This year continues crazy-crazy.
Sabin
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Re: PGA Winner

Post by Sabin »

Yesterday, I had a horrible realization about why Green Book could win: we haven't had a travesty this decade yet.

Think about it. Every decade, there's a universally reviled, talked about for ages travesty. Whether deserving or not. Last decade, it was Crash. In the 1990's it was Shakespeare in Love. It doesn't matter that it should be Dances with Wolves or Braveheart. It was Shakespeare in Love beating Saving Private Ryan. In the 1980's, it was Driving Miss Daisy.

What is our travesty this decade? The King's Speech? Too quaintly inoffensive. It's like a recession. We're due.
"How's the despair?"
Mister Tee
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Re: PGA Winner

Post by Mister Tee »

We've not seen a film's awards prospects collapse like A Star is Born's since -- what? -- Dreamgirls?

And for Green Book????
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