Interim Thoughts on the Races

[Big Magilla]

It seems like the kind of fractured year that could yield a surprise nominee. Magilla and others may wince at the thought of it, but why not Elsie Fisher for Eighth Grade? If Keisha Castle-Hughes could do it, I don't know why Fisher couldn't. If A24 or Focus had Ben Is Back, I'd say that Julia Roberts might have an outside shot, but Roadside Attractions doesn't seem to be doing much of anything with it.

Phooey on Elsie Fisher. I would love to see a nod for Julia for Ben Is Back, but she probably doesn't have much of a chance. She could conceivably, though, snare the fifth slot over Emily Blunt and Yalitza Aparicio.

Can Nicholas Hoult be carried by his co-stars and get a coattail surprise nomination?

Yes, but it would certainly be a surprise.

[FilmFan720]

I was thinking this morning about the DGA awards, and especially the relatively new First Time Feature category which in three years has become one of the most interesting awards given this time of year. This year, I was looking at a lineup of Bo Burnham, Boots Reilly, Ari Aster, Paul Dano, and maybe even Kay Cannon, which would be a great category.

Then I remembered that Bradley Cooper will also be eligible for that award, and he could (like Jordan Peele last year) get a double nomination. That would also mean that First Time Feature is a place where he could be awarded an award by the DGA and still leave things open for someone else to take Best Director -- which will only muddle things until Oscar night a little more!

I have a hunch things are going to be confusing all the way up to Oscar night for a lot of these categories.

[mlrg]

Can Nicholas Hoult be carried by his co-stars and get a coattail surprise nomination?

[Sabin]

dws1982 wrote
It seems like the kind of fractured year that could yield a surprise nominee. Magilla and others may wince at the thought of it, but why not Elsie Fisher for Eighth Grade? If Keisha Castle-Hughes could do it, I don't know why Fisher couldn't. If A24 or Focus had Ben Is Back, I'd say that Julia Roberts might have an outside shot, but Roadside Attractions doesn't seem to be doing much of anything with it.

With the success of Homecoming, it sure does seem like perfect timing for Julia Roberts to have a comeback but it doesn't appear as though Ben is Back is doing much.

Considering it's one of my favorite films of the year, I would love to see Elsie Fisher nominated considering she carried the entire film. Usually, we see children nominated for playing wiser than their years or oblivious to their awkwardness. It's not often we see children nominated for being all too aware of their awkwardness. Elsie Fisher plays a girl who desperately wants the world to look at her and look away at the same time.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
It probably will get a lot of below the line support, but so have a lot of other films that weren't The Shape of Water that didn't win Best Picture. If that's what gets it the win, then so be it, but voting for it for the top award to be in solidarity with the ticket buying public is self-defeating. What if Avengers: Infinity War had beaten it at the box-office? Would that be the film Gleiberman would be touting for the win?

No, it wouldn't.

Magilla, Gleiberman isn't touting Black Panther for a win because it's a comic book movie. He's touting it because it's Black Panther. Read what he is saying again. He is speaking directly to you.

I’m sorry, but in what universe should this movie not be winning the Oscar for best picture? A universe where Hollywood spends all its time concocting empty-calorie comic-book megahits, then finally makes one that becomes nothing less than a cultural event, stirring audiences all over the globe? Only to decide that no, why on earth would they want to honor a movie like that? All of which is to say that it would be a marvelous moment in American movie culture if “Black Panther” won best picture. Sure, no comic-book film has won before, but that would be part of its glory; this is the comic-book movie that should finally win. (Actually, “The Dark Knight” should have won, but that’s another story.) And personally, I love the idea of the industry bowing down to the popcorn movies that are now its bread and butter — not every year, perhaps, but one year. Just do it. It will feel good. It will send a message that maybe we can still believe in Hollywood if Hollywood is willing, on Oscar night, to believe in itself.

[dws1982]

MaxWilder wrote

Sabin wrote
If I had to pick right now, I'd guess Nicole Kidman simply due to Annapurna strength.

Aren't things a mess over there? Destroyer seems to have faded out.

Yes, they are. Quite. But I do know that they spent a lot on it so I figured they would be insistent on getting it seen at least in industry circles with screenings and screeners. Something I hadn't looked at though was their 2018 slate. This year, they have If Beale Street Could Talk and Vice. That will likely take the bulk of their resources.

But really, who are our alternatives? I'll be looking towards the BAFTAs for some guidance. If Viola Davis or someone outside the box like Joanna Kulig for Cold War I'll predict them.

It seems like the kind of fractured year that could yield a surprise nominee. Magilla and others may wince at the thought of it, but why not Elsie Fisher for Eighth Grade? If Keisha Castle-Hughes could do it, I don't know why Fisher couldn't. If A24 or Focus had Ben Is Back, I'd say that Julia Roberts might have an outside shot, but Roadside Attractions doesn't seem to be doing much of anything with it.

[Big Magilla]

Big Magilla wrote
Gleiberman has gone nuts. I liked Black Panther. It's a more substantial film than other comic book adaptations, but it's still a comic book adaptation. If there were comic book adaptations once in a blue moon, then maybe the majority of Oscar voters would consider them worthy of their votes but when the marketplace is gutted with their ilk and they're the only kinds of films all but guaranteed to bring in the big bucks, voting one of them a Best Picture award would be tantamount to giving up and throwing in the towel, which is what he's advocating. If it wins it will because more voters liked it than any other film, not because it would be good for the industry.

I want to apologize. I don't think I had properly taken in this last sentence.

So, Owen Gleiberman's piece is called "What Each Possible Oscar Winner Would Mean." Obviously, he's not going to just write "It means they liked it the most!" This is an extrapolation on both the reasoning for its win today but also what people will say about it down the road. Not only do I think it to be an interesting piece of writing but I think he has a point. Why did Moonlight beat La La Land? Because they liked it more? Sure, but also there were so many seismic rumblings going on in the country that it allowed for viewers to look at Moonlight within a difference lens. I actually agree to your point, I think Black Panther has become more than a comic book movie to some.

And also the question will be: 1) is Black Panther going to be a divisive choice on people's ballots or near the top of most, and 2) will it have more below the line support than the rest of the nominees. Like last year with The Shape of Water, will the art directors, the sound editors, etc, favor it? I think so.

It probably will get a lot of below the line support, but so have a lot of other films that weren't The Shape of Water that didn't win Best Picture. If that's what gets it the win, then so be it, but voting for it for the top award to be in solidarity with the ticket buying public is self-defeating. What if Avengers: Infinity War had beaten it at the box-office? Would that be the film Gleiberman would be touting for the win?

[ITALIANO]

How are Cooper and Hawke like Bette Davis and Gloria Swanson?

Yes, and most importantly, why should they cancel each other out? The theory is generally absurd, bur especially in this case... what do those two have in common?!

They both have four previous nominations.

Oh ok. And that's enough for them to cancel each other out

[Big Magilla]

How are Cooper and Hawke like Bette Davis and Gloria Swanson?

Yes, and most importantly, why should they cancel each other out? The theory is generally absurd, bur especially in this case... what do those two have in common?!

They both have four previous nominations.

[ITALIANO]

How are Cooper and Hawke like Bette Davis and Gloria Swanson?

Yes, and most importantly, why should they cancel each other out? The theory is generally absurd, bur especially in this case... what do those two have in common?!

And the fact that Kate Winslet is absolutely supporting in The Reader... I mean, Big Magilla, guess we have drunk too much wine during these holidays...

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Gleiberman has gone nuts. I liked Black Panther. It's a more substantial film than other comic book adaptations, but it's still a comic book adaptation. If there were comic book adaptations once in a blue moon, then maybe the majority of Oscar voters would consider them worthy of their votes but when the marketplace is gutted with their ilk and they're the only kinds of films all but guaranteed to bring in the big bucks, voting one of them a Best Picture award would be tantamount to giving up and throwing in the towel, which is what he's advocating. If it wins it will because more voters liked it than any other film, not because it would be good for the industry.

I want to apologize. I don't think I had properly taken in this last sentence.

So, Owen Gleiberman's piece is called "What Each Possible Oscar Winner Would Mean." Obviously, he's not going to just write "It means they liked it the most!" This is an extrapolation on both the reasoning for its win today but also what people will say about it down the road. Not only do I think it to be an interesting piece of writing but I think he has a point. Why did Moonlight beat La La Land? Because they liked it more? Sure, but also there were so many seismic rumblings going on in the country that it allowed for viewers to look at Moonlight within a difference lens. I actually agree to your point, I think Black Panther has become more than a comic book movie to some.

And also the question will be: 1) is Black Panther going to be a divisive choice on people's ballots or near the top of most, and 2) will it have more below the line support than the rest of the nominees. Like last year with The Shape of Water, will the art directors, the sound editors, etc, favor it? I think so.

[Sabin]

MaxWilder wrote

Sabin wrote
If I had to pick right now, I'd guess Nicole Kidman simply due to Annapurna strength.

Aren't things a mess over there? Destroyer seems to have faded out.

Yes, they are. Quite. But I do know that they spent a lot on it so I figured they would be insistent on getting it seen at least in industry circles with screenings and screeners. Something I hadn't looked at though was their 2018 slate. This year, they have If Beale Street Could Talk and Vice. That will likely take the bulk of their resources.

But really, who are our alternatives? I'll be looking towards the BAFTAs for some guidance. If Viola Davis or someone outside the box like Joanna Kulig for Cold War I'll predict them.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
A few thoughts:

Lol, well you're right about that. These are certainly a a few thoughts!

Big Magilla wrote
Best Picture

Gleiberman has gone nuts. I liked Black Panther. It's a more substantial film than other comic book adaptations, but it's still a comic book adaptation. If there were comic book adaptations once in a blue moon, then maybe the majority of Oscar voters would consider them worthy of their votes but when the marketplace is gutted with their ilk and they're the only kinds of films all but guaranteed to bring in the big bucks, voting one of them a Best Picture award would be tantamount to giving up and throwing in the towel, which is what he's advocating. If it wins it will because more voters liked it than any other film, not because it would be good for the industry.

First of all, saying there's too many of them for one of them to be seen as special is ridiculous. Would ascribe that to any other genre?

Also, he's not exactly saying that it's throwing in the towel. This isn't the resistance, Magilla. He's saying that they're not just a financial boon. They're an era. They're a part of history. Part of what the Academy has done over the ages is honor films that captured the public's imagination and the zeitgeist. Plus, y'know, it has to be good, but good is subjective and this hasn't been a great year for Academy-friendly movies, so why not?

At the end of the day, giving Best Picture to Black Panther is more meaningful than giving one to The Artist.

Big Magilla wrote
Best Actor

Ethan Hawke, like Bradley Cooper, has four previous Oscar nominations. Being shut out at the Globes and SAG is problematic, but if he's nominated, he will have a strong level of support from not just actors, but writers who nominated him twice in the past. He could still win. It's also possible that that Cooper and Hawke will cancel each other out and Malek will emerge the winner. It could be the male version of the 1950 Best Actress race with Judy Holliday triumphing over Bette Davis and Gloria Swanson.

How are Cooper and Hawke like Bette Davis and Gloria Swanson? There's no desperate need to honor both of them, or really either one of them if the competition was better. If Darkest Hour came out of this year, does anyone have any doubt that Gary Oldman would prevail? Neither one of them is a previous two-time Oscar winner or star from a bygone era? But wouldn't it make more sense for Bradley Cooper and Rami Malek to be Bette Davis and Gloria Swanson, because both of them were basically playing forgotten legends. Bradley Cooper and Rami Malek are playing doomed musicians. So... wouldn't that make Ethan Hawke... like Judy Holliday (this is the wackiest post).

Big Magilla wrote
Best Actress

Glenn Close will be nominated and she will win. There is no other active performer considered "owed" as much as Close. If she were competing last year against Frances McDormand she wouldn't have stood a chance, but this year with no clear favorite (whichever way you want to spell the word), she is too formidable a force to be denied.

The Academy doesn't really care about who is "owed" like they used to, and Lady Gaga is the clear favorite.

A thought about Glenn Close. I think the person who is really ruining her chances is Olivia Colman. Glenn Close might be The Contender with Gravitas, but Olivia Colman gave The Performance with Gravitas. She's taking all of the awards that Glenn Close needed to say "Hey, look at me!" So far, Glenn Close has won two awards: The New Mexico Film Critics Circle and the San Diego Film Critics Society Awards. Heck, Lady Gaga has more awards, including The National Board of Review. I'd argue that The National Board of Review being comfortable enough with Lady Gaga to give her Best Actress means that Glenn Close is in trouble.

Big Magilla wrote
Best Supporting Actor

The argument that Mahershala Ali is shoehorned into this category because he's black and therefore seen by his film's producers as subservient to his white co-star being campaigned as lead goes away when you are aware that it was Ali himself who started the campaign. If he doesn't win, it will either be because they liked Richard E. Grant or someone else better or because other the dirty tricksters have done their joball too well. Who dug up those meddlesome relatives, anyway?

This is being talked about elsewhere, but one of the people you're talking about is his brother. He, like, didn't need to be dug up.

Personally, I do not in any way shape or form think that the real life people must be consulted to make the production. To wit:

New York Times Arts headline
Ruth Bader Ginsburg reviewed several drafts of the new movie about her, "On the Basis of Sex." As her daughter, Jane Ginsburg, put it, “There wasn’t going to be a movie if my mother wasn’t comfortable with it.”

Well, way to go, guys! Can't imagine why this movie dull as dirt.

But as for Green Book, I have no difficulty believing the brother because I've seen the movie. This didn't happen, at least not like this. It's not a credible piece of storytelling.

Big Magilla wrote
Best Supporting Actress

They've kind of coalesced around Regina King on this one, but if there's an upset, how about Nicole Kidman? She's not someone people really think about giving a second Oscar to, but this year she has a shot at both Best Actress for Destroyer, which is not likely to happen and Supporting Actress for Boy Erased which seems the better bet.

Boy Erased would seem like the better bet if she was turning up anywhere but she's really not. And I have to ask, if in this weak of a category where they're turning to Emily Blunt for A Quiet Place, admist the Kidmanissaince, doesn't that speak more to her performance not being that good?

Big Magilla wrote
Best Director

Some may vote for Cooper here and not in the other categories for which he will likely be nominated, but if anyone is considered "due" in this race, it's Spike Lee.

In any case, it would be nice to see someone not being highly touted win in at least of the major categories.

Unquestionably, Spike Lee the most "due" for his career.

Last year, Christopher Nolan was more "due" than Guillermo Del Toro. George Miller was more "due" than Alejandro G. Inarritu. Michael Haneke and David O. Russell were more "due" than Ang Lee. Terrence Malick was more "due" than Michel Hazanavicius. David Fincher was more "due' than Tom Hooper.

It's not about who's due. It's about who's deserving. I'd have an easier time fathoming a Spike Lee Oscar win if BlacKkKlansman was a more visceral achievement, instead of an amiable.

But, look, I'm with you. If Oscar night means watching Bradley Cooper win three Oscars, I will be miserable. I say this as somebody who thinks Bradley Cooper already should have won three Oscars! I like Bradley Cooper.

[MaxWilder]

In Ali's case, I get the feeling he really wants to win that elusive second Oscar and feels that he has a better shot with a weaker field in support than the one in lead.

Can a second Oscar become elusive in just two years? Green Book is his first post-Oscar movie, so he hasn't actually missed a chance at #2 yet.

Magilla, I think you're letting your tastes influence your predictions. One of the best actress contenders is in a $200 million smash that could very well win best picture. She's currently the favorite.

If I had to pick right now, I'd guess Nicole Kidman simply due to Annapurna strength.

Aren't things a mess over there? Destroyer seems to have faded out.

[Big Magilla]

The argument that Mahershala Ali is shoehorned into this category because he's black and therefore seen by his film's producers as subservient to his white co-star being campaigned as lead goes away when you are aware that it was Ali himself who started the campaign.

I have two words for you: Internalized oppression

And the fact that these people cynically play the game, prostituting themselves (Ali, Chalamet, Stone and Weisz - they are all included) to gain prestige and awards doesn't make it acceptable. Or at least shouldn't.

I don't know enough about Ali to know if he's a victim of internalized oppression or not, but I don't believe that is what's driving this. Your second argument about these actors prostituting themselves may have more merit, but in the case of Stone and Weisz it may that they feel they've won enough awards, let Colman have the spotlight in lead. In Ali's case, I get the feeling he really wants to win that elusive second Oscar and feels that he has a better shot with a weaker field in support than the one in lead.

I think the last time Academy members grew a backbone and went against a studio campaign was for Kate Winslet in The Reader. She was promoted as supporting actress in The Reader and if I'm not mistake so as not so clash with the campaign for a lead role in Revolutionary Road. She ended up with the lead nomination for The Reader and the Oscar itself.

Actually it was Harvey Weinstein who pushed for a supporting actress nomination for Winslet, not the actress herself. However, the role really is a supporting one. If it was Susie Schwartz or some other unknown actress playing the part there wouldn't have been an issue. The film is about the lead male character, but because he is played by two actors it seems as though their individual screen time makes them look like supporting players thus elevating the actress playing the second most important character in the film. It's really one of those roles that could be considered either lead or supporting and Winslet probably received votes in both categories. Had she been nominated in support, Meryl Streep would likely have won for Doubt, negating the perceived need to give her a third Oscar for The Iron Lady. Personally, I like the idea of Streep and Winslet instead of Winslet and Penelope Cruz in the third-rate Woody Allen film she won for.